A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Population-Level Dental Caries Prevention Strategies in US Children.

OBJECTIVE: To improve oral health disparities and outcomes among US children impacted by dental caries, there is a need to understand the cost-effectiveness of a targeted, risk-based versus universal-based approach for caries prevention. METHODS: Health and economic outcomes were simulated in a cohort of 50,000 US children aged 1-18 years, comparing current practice (CP) to risk-based-prevention (RBP) and prevention-for-all (PFA) strategies using health care sector and limited societal perspectives. Prevention included biannual oral health exams and fluoride varnish application, and one-time dental sealant placement. The primary outcome is the cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), defined as the additional cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained when comparing each strategy to the next least costly one. RESULTS: For RBP compared to CP, the ICER was US$83,000/QALY from the health care sector perspective; for PFA compared to RBP the ICER was US$154,000/QALY. Using a limited societal perspective that includes caregiver time spent attending dental or medical setting visits, RBP compared to CP yielded a ratio of $119,000/QALY and PFA compared to RBP was $235,000/QALY. Results were most sensitive to changes in the probability of pain from an episode of dental caries, costs for prevention and restoration, and the loss in health-related quality of life due to dental caries pain. Scenario analyses evaluating a reduced intensity of prevention services yielded lower ICERs. CONCLUSION: Using a risk-based approach that identifies and targets children at increased risk for dental caries to guide the delivery of prevention services represents an economic value similar to other pediatric prevention programs.

Cost-effectiveness of routine annual influenza vaccination by age and risk status.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of circulating seasonal influenza strains changed following the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1). A universal influenza vaccination recommendation has been implemented and new vaccine types have become available post-2009. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of routine annual influenza vaccination in the context of this new evidence. METHODS: A state transition simulation model was constructed to estimate the health and economic outcomes of influenza vaccination compared to no vaccination for hypothetical US cohorts stratified by age and risk status. Model input parameters were derived from multiple sources, including post-2009 vaccine effectiveness data from the US Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Network. The analysis used societal and healthcare sector perspectives and a one-year time horizon, except permanent outcomes were also included. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in dollars per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. RESULTS: Compared to no vaccination, vaccination yielded ICERs lower than $95,000/QALY for all age and risk groups, except for non-high-risk adults 18-49 years ($194,000/QALY). Vaccination was cost-saving for adults ≥50 years at higher risk for influenza-related complications. Results were most sensitive to changes in the probability of influenza illness. Performing the analysis from the healthcare sector perspective, excluding vaccination time costs, delivering vaccinations in lower-cost settings, and including productivity losses improved the cost-effectiveness of vaccination. Sensitivity analysis revealed that vaccination remains below $100,000/QALY for older persons ≥65 years at vaccine effectiveness estimates as low as 4 %. CONCLUSIONS: Cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination varied by age and risk status and was less than $95,000/QALY for all subgroups, except for non-high-risk working-age adults. Results were sensitive to the probability of influenza illness and vaccination was more favorable under certain scenarios. Vaccination for higher risk subgroups resulted in ICERs below $100,000/QALY even at low levels of vaccine effectiveness or circulating virus.

Newborn Screening and Treatment of Phenylketonuria: Projected Health Outcomes and Cost-Effectiveness.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of newborn screening and treatment for phenylketonuria (PKU) in the context of new data on adherence to recommended diet treatment and a newly available drug treatment (sapropterin dihydrochloride). A computer simulation model was developed to project outcomes for a hypothetical cohort of newborns with PKU. Four strategies were compared: (1) clinical identification (CI) with diet treatment; (2) newborn screening (NBS) with diet treatment; (3) CI with diet and medication (sapropterin dihydrochloride); and (4) NBS with diet and medication. Data sources included published literature, primary data, and expert opinion. From a societal perspective, newborn screening with diet treatment had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $6400/QALY compared to clinical identification with diet treatment. Adding medication to NBS with diet treatment resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of more than $16,000,000/QALY. Uncertainty analyses did not substantially alter the cost-effectiveness results. Newborn screening for PKU with diet treatment yields a cost-effectiveness ratio lower than many other recommended childhood prevention programs even if adherence is lower than previously assumed. Adding medication yields cost-effectiveness results unlikely to be considered favorable. Future research should consider conditions under which sapropterin dihydrochloride would be more economically attractive.

Health and economic outcomes of newborn screening for infantile-onset Pompe disease.

PURPOSE: To estimate health and economic outcomes associated with newborn screening (NBS) for infantile-onset Pompe disease in the United States. METHODS: A decision analytic microsimulation model simulated health and economic outcomes of a birth cohort of 4 million children in the United States. Universal NBS and treatment was compared with clinical identification and treatment of infantile-onset Pompe disease. Main outcomes were projected cases identified, costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) over the life course. RESULTS: Universal NBS for Pompe disease and confirmatory testing was estimated to cost an additional $26 million annually. Additional medication costs associated with earlier treatment initiation were $181 million; however, $8 million in medical care costs for other services were averted due to delayed disease progression. Infants with screened and treated infantile-onset Pompe disease experienced an average lifetime increase of 11.66 QALYs compared with clinical detection. The ICER was $379,000/QALY from a societal perspective and $408,000/QALY from the health-care perspective. Results were sensitive to the cost of enzyme replacement therapy. CONCLUSION: Newborn screening for Pompe disease results in substantial health gains for individuals with infantile-onset Pompe disease, but with additional costs.

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Regarding Dietary Sodium in College Students.

OBJECTIVE: Test a dietary sodium survey in a US adult population of college students using a survey previously validated in a non-US adult population. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of a convenience sample of college students from a Midwest (n = 168) and Pacific Island (n = 152) university. Main outcome measures were knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding dietary sodium (38 items). Sum scores and percentages for constructs were calculated. A score <75% was considered unfavorable; t test or ANOVA were used to examine group differences. RESULTS: Midwest students were primarily non-Hispanic White individuals (81%) and 65% female. Pacific Island students were predominantly Asian (51%) and 66% female. Mean ± SD construct scores (percentage) for knowledge, attitudes, and practices were 58.69 ± 10.62, 63.96 ± 16.18, 66.00 ± 12.34 (Midwest) and 57.54 ± 10.93, 64.84 ± 14.96, 64.94 ± 13.18 (Pacific Island), respectively; there were no significant differences between schools or race. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: College students scored low in knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding sodium. Results from this formative study may inform assessment strategies in future dietary sodium interventions.

Using nutritional survey data to inform the design of sugar-sweetened beverage taxes in low-resource contexts: a cross-sectional analysis based on data from an adult Caribbean population.

OBJECTIVE: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes have been implemented widely. We aimed to use a pre-existing nutritional survey data to inform SSB tax design by assessing: (1) baseline consumption of SSBs and SSB-derived free sugars, (2) the percentage of SSB-derived free sugars that would be covered by a tax and (3) the extent to which a tax would differentiate between high-sugar SSBs and low-sugar SSBs. We evaluated these three considerations using pre-existing nutritional survey data in a developing economy setting. METHODS: We used data from a nationally representative cross-sectional survey in Barbados (2012-2013, prior to SSB tax implementation). Data were available on 334 adults (25-64 years) who completed two non-consecutive 24-hour dietary recalls. We estimated the prevalence of SSB consumption and its contribution to total energy intake, overall and stratified by taxable status. We assessed the percentage of SSB-derived free sugars subject to the tax and identified the consumption-weighted sugar concentration of SSBs, stratified by taxable status. FINDINGS: Accounting for sampling probability, 88.8% of adults (95% CI 85.1 to 92.5) reported SSB consumption, with a geometric mean of 2.4 servings/day (±2 SD, 0.6, 9.2) among SSB consumers. Sixty percent (95% CI 54.6 to 65.4) of SSB-derived free sugars would be subject to the tax. The tax did not clearly differentiate between high-sugar beverages and low-sugar beverages. CONCLUSION: Given high SSB consumption, targeting SSBs was a sensible strategy in this setting. A substantial percentage of free sugars from SSBs were not covered by the tax, reducing possible health benefits. The considerations proposed here may help policymakers to design more effective SSB taxes.

Aggregate health and economic burden of herpes zoster in the United States: illustrative example of a pain condition.

Our objective was to develop comprehensive national estimates of the total burden of herpes zoster (HZ) among U.S. adults, including direct (ie, medical costs) and indirect (ie, productivity losses) costs, as well as its psychosocial impact (ie, quality of life losses). Using a patient-level microsimulation model, we projected health and economic outcomes among U.S. adults aged 18 years and older using a 10-year time horizon. We conducted a comprehensive systematic literature review to generate parameter values and conducted simulation modeling to generate our outcomes, including numbers of cases of uncomplicated HZ, postherpetic neuralgia (PHN), and ocular complications, productivity losses, and losses in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). We used a societal perspective for outcomes; the costing year was 2015. Projected outcomes for an unvaccinated population included 1.1 million HZ cases, 114,000 PHN cases, and 43,000 ocular complications annually, resulting in approximately 67,000 QALYs lost. HZ and its complications would incur costs of $2.4 billion in direct medical costs and productivity losses annually. Projected QALY losses were most sensitive to HZ and PHN health utility values in the model. Cost estimates were most sensitive to the probability of HZ and to the costs per episode of PHN. The national burden of direct, indirect, and psychosocial HZ costs is substantial. Our results can inform economic analyses for HZ vaccines. Comprehensive, national assessments of the total burden of other painful conditions would be very informative.

Billing and payment of commercial and Medicaid health plan adult vaccination claims in Michigan since the Affordable Care Act.

BACKGROUND: Provider concern regarding insurance non-payment for vaccines is a common barrier to provision of adult immunizations. We examined current adult vaccination billing and payment associated with two managed care populations to identify reasons for non-payment of immunization insurance claims. METHODS: We assessed administrative data from 2014 to 2015 from Blue Care Network of Michigan, a nonprofit health maintenance organization, and Blue Cross Complete of Michigan, a Medicaid managed care plan, to determine rates of and reasons for non-payment of adult vaccination claims across patient-care settings, insurance plans, and vaccine types. We compared commercial and Medicaid payment rates to Medicare payment rates and examined patient cost sharing. RESULTS: Pharmacy-submitted claims for adult vaccine doses were almost always paid (commercial 98.5%; Medicaid 100%). As the physician office accounted for the clear majority (79% commercial; 69% Medicaid) of medical (non-pharmacy) vaccination services, we limited further analyses of both commercial and Medicaid medical claims to the physician office setting. In the physician office setting, rates of payment were high with commercial rates of payment (97.9%) greater than Medicaid rates (91.6%). Reasons for non-payment varied, but generally related to the complexity of adult vaccine recommendations (patient diagnosis does not match recommendations) or insurance coverage (complex contracts, multiple insurance payers). Vaccine administration services were also generally paid. Commercial health plan payments were greater for both vaccine dose and vaccine administration than Medicare payments; Medicaid paid a higher amount for the vaccine dose, but less for vaccine administration than Medicare. Patients generally had very low (commercial) or no (Medicaid) cost-sharing for vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Adult vaccine dose claims were usually paid. Medicaid generally had higher rates of non-payment than commercial insurance.

The financial and time burden associated with phenylketonuria treatment in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Phenylketonuria (PKU) imposes a substantial burden on people living with the condition and their families. However, little is known about the time cost and financial burden of having PKU or caring for a child with the condition. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Primary data were collected with a detailed cost and utilization survey. Primary outcomes included utilization and out-of-pocket costs of medical services, medical formula, and prescribed low-protein food consumption, as well as the time and perceived effort involved in following the PKU diet. Respondents were people living with PKU or parents of children with PKU identified through a state newborn screening program database. Secondary administrative claims data were also used to calculate mean total, insurer, and out-of-pocket payments in inpatient, outpatient (office visits, emergency room, and laboratory tests), and pharmacy settings for privately insured persons with PKU. Payments were calculated for sapropterin and for PKU formula.In primary data analysis (children n = 32, adults n = 52), annual out-of-pocket costs were highest for low-protein foods (child = $1651; adult = $967) compared with other categories of care. The time burden of PKU care was high; families reported spending more than 300 h per year shopping for and preparing special diet foods.In secondary data analysis, children 12-17 years old had the highest average medical expenditures ($54,147; n = 140) compared to children 0-11 years old ($19,057; n = 396) and adults 18 years and older ($40,705; n = 454). Medication costs were the largest contributor to medical costs, accounting for 61-81% of total costs across age groups. Sapropterin was the largest driver of medication costs, accounting for 85% of child medication costs and 92% of adult medication costs. CONCLUSION: Treatment for PKU incurs a substantial time and cost burden on persons with PKU and their families. Estimated medical expenditures using claims data varied by age group, but sapropterin represented the largest cost for PKU treatment from a payer perspective across age groups.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Vaccination for Prevention of Herpes Zoster and Related Complications: Input for National Recommendations.

Background: The U.S. Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recently developed recommendations for use of a new recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV). Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of vaccination with RZV compared with zoster vaccine live (ZVL) and no vaccination, the cost-effectiveness of vaccination with RZV for persons who have previously received ZVL, and the cost-effectiveness of preferential vaccination with RZV over ZVL. Design: Simulation (state-transition) model using U.S. epidemiologic, clinical, and cost data. Data Sources: Published data. Target Population: Hypothetical cohort of immunocompetent U.S. adults aged 50 years or older. Time Horizon: Lifetime. Perspective: Societal and health care sector. Intervention: Vaccination with RZV (recommended 2-dose regimen), vaccination with ZVL, and no vaccination. Outcome Measures: The primary outcome measure was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Results of Base-Case Analysis: For vaccination with RZV compared with no vaccination, ICERs ranged by age from $10 000 to $47 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), using a societal perspective and assuming 100% completion of the 2-dose RZV regimen. For persons aged 60 years or older, ICERs were less than $60 000 per QALY. Vaccination with ZVL was dominated by vaccination with RZV for all age groups 60 years or older. Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Results were most sensitive to changes in vaccine effectiveness, duration of protection, herpes zoster incidence, and probability of postherpetic neuralgia. Vaccination with RZV after previous administration of ZVL yielded an ICER of less than $60 000 per QALY for persons aged 60 years or older. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, RZV remained the preferred strategy in at least 95% of simulations, including those with 50% completion of the second dose. Limitation: Few data were available on risk for serious adverse events, adherence to the recommended 2-dose regimen, and probability of recurrent zoster. Conclusion: Vaccination with RZV yields cost-effectiveness ratios lower than those for many recommended adult vaccines, including ZVL. Results are robust over a wide range of plausible values. Primary Funding Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Are there gender differences in acute management and secondary prevention of acute coronary syndromes in Barbados? A cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: In Barbados, high case fatality rates have been reported after myocardial infarction (MI) with higher rates in women than men. To explore this inequality, we examined documented pharmacological interventions for ST-segment elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI), non-STEMI (NSTEMI) and unstable and chronic angina in women and men. DESIGN: Prospective cohort registry data for STEMI and NSTEMI and retrospective chart review for unstable and chronic angina. SETTING: Tertiary care (acute coronary syndromes) and primary care (chronic angina) centres in Barbados. PARTICIPANTS: For the years 2009-2016, a total of 1018 patients with STEMI or NSTEMI were identified via the prospective study. For unstable and chronic angina, 136 and 272 notes were reviewed respectively for the years 2010-2014. OUTCOME MEASURES: The proportions of patients prescribed recommended medication during the first 24 hours after an acute event, at discharge and for chronic care were calculated. Prescribed proportions were analysed by gender after adjustment for age. RESULTS: Between 2009 and 2016, for the acute management of patients with NSTEMI and STEMI, only two (aspirin and clopidogrel) of six drugs had documented prescription rates of 80% or more. Patients with STEMI (n=552) had higher prescription rates than NSTEMI (n=466), with gender differences being more pronounced in the former. Among patients with STEMI, after adjustment for age, diabetes, hypertension and smoking, men were more likely to receive fibrinolytics acutely, OR 2.28 (95% CI 1.24 to 4.21). Compared with men, a higher proportion of women were discharged on all recommended treatments; this was only statistically significant for beta-blockers: age-adjusted OR 1.87 (95% CI 1.16 to 3.00). There were no statistically significant differences in documented prescription of drugs for chronic angina. CONCLUSION: Following acute MI in Barbados, the proportion of patients with documented recommended treatment is relatively low. Although women were less likely to receive appropriate acute care than men, by discharge gender differences were reversed.

Health utilities and parental quality of life effects for three rare conditions tested in newborns.

BACKGROUND: Measurement of health utilities is required for economic evaluations. Few studies have evaluated health utilities for rare conditions; even fewer have incorporated disutility that may be experienced by caregivers. This study aimed to (1) estimate health utilities for three rare conditions currently recommended for newborn screening at the state or federal level, and (2) estimate the disutility, or spillover, experienced by parents of patients diagnosed with a rare, heritable disorder. METHODS: A stated-preference survey using a time trade-off approach elicited health utilities for Krabbe disease, phenylketonuria, and Pompe disease at varying stages (mild, moderate, severe) and onset of disease symptoms (infancy, childhood, and adulthood). We recruited respondents from a nationally representative community sample (n = 862). Respondents valued disease specific health states in three consecutive question frames: (1) adult health state (> = 18 years of age), (2) child health state (< 18 years of age), and (3) as a parent of a child with a condition (parent spillover state). Corresponding mean utilities were calculated for plausible disease states in adulthood and childhood. Mean disutility was estimated for parental spillover. Predictors of utilities were evaluated using a negative binomial regression model. RESULTS: More severe conditions and infant health states received lower estimated utility and greater estimated disutility among parents. Conditions with the lowest estimated health utilities were severe infantile Pompe disease (0.40, CI: 0.34-0.46) and infantile Krabbe disease (0.37, CI: 0.32-0.43). Disutility was evident for all conditions evaluated (range: 0.07-0.19). CONCLUSIONS: Rare childhood conditions are associated with substantial estimated losses in quality of life. Evidence of disutility among parents further warrants the inclusion of spillover effects in cost-effectiveness analyses. Continued research is needed to assess and measure the effects of childhood disease from a family perspective.

Patient Preferences for Bariatric Surgery: Findings From a Survey Using Discrete Choice Experiment Methodology.

Importance: Surgical options for weight loss vary considerably in risks and benefits, but the relative importance of procedure-associated characteristics in patient decision making is largely unknown. Objective: To identify patient preferences for risks, benefits, and other attributes of treatment options available to individuals who are candidates for bariatric surgery. Design, Setting, and Participants: This discrete choice experiment of weight loss procedures was performed as an internet-based survey administered to patients recruited from bariatric surgery information sessions in the State of Michigan. Each procedure was described by the following set of attributes: (1) treatment method, (2) recovery and reversibility, (3) time that treatment has been available, (4) expected weight loss, (5) effect on other medical conditions, (6) risk of complication, (7) adverse effects, (8) changes to diet, and (9) out-of-pocket costs. Participants chose between surgical profiles by comparing attributes. Survey data were collected from May 1, 2015, through January 30, 2016, and analyzed from February 1 to June 30, 2016. Main Outcomes and Measures: Estimated relative value of risks and benefits for leading weight-loss surgical options and marginal willingness to pay for procedure attributes. A latent class analysis identified respondent subgroups. Results: Among the 815 respondents (79.9% women; mean [SD] age, 44.5 [12.0] years), profiles of hypothetical procedures that included resolution of medical conditions (coefficient for full resolution, 0.229 [95% CI, 0.177 to 0.280; P < .001]; coefficient for no resolution, -0.207 [95% CI, -0.254 to -0.159; P < .001]), higher total weight loss (coefficient for each additional 20% loss, 0.185 [95% CI, 0.166 to 0.205; P < .001]), and lower out-of-pocket costs (coefficient for each additional $1000, -0.034 [95% CI, -0.042 to -0.025; P < .001]) were most likely to be selected. Younger respondents were more likely than older respondents to choose treatments with higher weight loss (coefficient for loss of 80% excess weight 0.543 [95% CI, 0.435-0.651] vs 0.397 [95% CI, 0.315-0.482]) and were more sensitive to out-of-pocket costs (coefficient for $100 out-of-pocket costs, 0.346 [95% CI, 0.221-0.470] vs 0.262 [95% CI, 0.174 to 0.350]; coefficient for $15 000 in out-of-pocket costs, -0.768 [95% CI, -0.938 to -0.598] vs -0.384 [95% CI, -0.500 to -0.268]). Marginal willingness to pay indicated respondents would pay $5470 for losing each additional 20% of excess body weight and $12 843 for resolution of existing medical conditions, the most desired procedure attributes. Latent class analysis identified the following 3 unobserved subgroups: cost-sensitive (most concerned with costs); benefit-focused (most concerned with excess weight loss and resolution of medical conditions); and procedure-focused (most concerned with how the treatment itself worked, including recovery and reversibility). Conclusions and Relevance: Candidates for bariatric surgery identified costs, expected weight loss, and resolution of medical conditions as the most important characteristics of weight loss surgery decisions. Other information, such as risk of complications and adverse effects, were important to patients but less so.

An Assessment of Public Preferences for Newborn Screening Using Best-Worst Scaling.

OBJECTIVE: To identify and quantify public preferences for attributes of newborn screening conditions. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted an online national survey of the public (n = 502) to evaluate preferences for attributes of candidate newborn screening conditions. Respondents were presented with hypothetical condition profiles that were defined using 10 attributes with 2-6 levels per attribute. Participants indicated whether they would recommend screening for a condition and which condition attributes were most and least important when making this decision (best-worst scaling). Difference scores were calculated and stratified by condition recommendation (recommend or not recommend for screening). Regression analyses were used to evaluate the effect of attributes on choice to screen or not screen. RESULTS: The number of babies diagnosed was important to those who would recommend newborn screening for a profile, and age at which the treatment would start was important to those who would not recommend newborn screening. Cost was considered to be a key attribute, and treatment effectiveness and impact of making the diagnosis through newborn screening were of low importance for both groups. CONCLUSION: Public preferences identified through survey methods that provide an adequate baseline understanding of newborn screening can be used to inform newborn screening decisions.

Economic assessment of integrated cancer and cardiovascular registries: The Barbados experience.

BACKGROUND: This report describes the resources required to support the integrated approach of the Barbados National Registry for Chronic Non-communicable Diseases (BNR) to non-communicable disease (NCD) case registration, and to identify differences in cost for collecting and maintaining information on cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) case registration. METHODS: We used the modified Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's International Registry Costing Tool to collect data from the CVD and cancer registries. We used cancer and CVD cost data for the annual period April 2014 through March 2015 to estimate the total cost and cost per case. We used prospectively collected average annual CVD cases, and for cancer cases we assumed 2 or 3 years are needed for retrospective data collection. RESULTS: The Ministry of Health provided 56% of the resources for the registries. Labor accounted for over 70% of both registries' budgets, while management and administration, along with data collection and analysis, incurred the highest costs per case. Total variable cost activities related to data collection and analysis were higher for the CVD component (US$131,297) than the cancer component (US$58,917). The CVD cost per case (US$489) was in between the cancer 2-year (US$382) and the cancer 3-year (US$573) cost-per-case estimates. CONCLUSION: These findings indicate that there are substantial fixed costs related to management and administration of NCD registries. All registries need management and administration support. When registries are combined, management and administration costs can be shared. We project that registries that can share fixed-cost infrastructure are likely to incur a lower total cost per case.

A cross-sectional study of physical activity and sedentary behaviours in a Caribbean population: combining objective and questionnaire data to guide future interventions.

BACKGROUND: Current understanding of population physical activity (PA) levels and sedentary behaviour in developing countries is limited, and based primarily on self-report. We described PA levels using objective and self-report methods in a developing country population. METHODS: PA was assessed in a cross-sectional, representative sample of the population of Barbados (25-54 years), using a validated questionnaire (RPAQ) and individually calibrated combined heart rate and movement sensing monitors. The RPAQ collects information on recalled activity in 4 domains: home, work, transport, and leisure. Physical inactivity was defined according to World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines; sedentary lifestyle was defined as being sedentary for 8 h or more daily; PA overestimation was defined as perceiving activity to be sufficient, when classified as 'inactive' by objective measurement. RESULTS: According to objective estimates, 90.5 % (95 % CI: 83.3,94.7) of women and 58.9 % (48.4,68.7) of men did not accumulate sufficient activity to meet WHO minimum recommendations. Overall, 50.7 % (43.3,58.1) of the population was sedentary for 8 h or more each day, and 60.1 % (52.8,66.9) overestimated their activity levels. The prevalence of inactivity was underestimated by self-report in both genders by 28 percentage points (95 % CI: 18,38), but the accuracy of reporting differed by age group, education level, occupational grade, and overweight/obesity status. Low PA was greater in more socially privileged groups: higher educational level and higher occupational grade were both associated with less objectively measured PA and more sedentary time. Variation in domain-specific self-reported physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) by educational attainment was observed: higher education level was associated with more leisure activity and less occupational activity. Occupational PA was the main driver of PAEE for women and men according to self-report, contributing 57 % (95 % CI: 52,61). The most popular leisure activities for both genders were walking and gardening. CONCLUSIONS: The use of both objective and self-report methods to assess PA and sedentary behaviour provides important complementary information to guide public health programmes. Our results emphasize the urgent need to increase PA and reduce sedentary time in this developing country population. Women and those with higher social economic position are particularly at risk from low levels of physical activity.

Predicting the burden of acute myocardial infarction in a country with limited resources: combining data from routine sources.

BACKGROUND: Prior to implementation of a national surveillance system for cardiovascular disease in Barbados, a small island state with limited health resources, the national burden of acute myocardial infarction (MI) was unknown. METHODS: We retrospectively estimated national acute MI incidence rates (IRs) per 100,000 during the decade before registry implementation (1999-2008), using easily accessible routine data from different sources, assessing changes over time through Poisson regression. Future events (2009-2013) were estimated using simple sensitivity analysis to incorporate prediction uncertainty. Model predictions were compared with actual IRs from initial years of the registry. RESULTS: In 2000, crude IR was 85.5 (95% CI: 74.9-97.2), rising to 92.1 (81.2-103.9) in 2008. Accounting for population ageing, the model anticipated IR of 115.9 in 2010 (99.7-132.1), vs actual crude IR 129.7 (115.9-144.6). CONCLUSIONS: Despite no electronic medical record system in Barbados, data were simple to collect, and provided a rough baseline for acute MI burden. We show that, in countries with small populations, limited resources and in absence of surveillance, national mortality statistics and routine hospital data can be combined to adequately model national estimates of acute MI incidence. This cheap and simple, yet fairly accurate method could be a key tool for other low-resource countries with ageing populations and increasing cardiovascular disease levels.