Health Outcomes and Cost-effectiveness of Monoclonal SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies as Pre-exposure Prophylaxis.

Importance: Pre-exposure prophylaxis with neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies (mAbs PrEP) prevents infection and reduces hospitalizations and the duration thereof for COVID-19 and death among high-risk individuals. However, reduced effectiveness due to a changing SARS-CoV-2 viral landscape and high drug prices remain substantial implementation barriers. Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of mAbs PrEP as COVID-19 PrEP. Design, Setting, and Participants: For this economic evaluation, a decision analytic model was developed and parameterized with health care outcome and utilization data from individuals with high risk for COVID-19. The SARS-CoV-2 infection probability, mAbs PrEP effectiveness, and drug pricing were varied. All costs were collected from a third-party payer perspective. Data were analyzed from September 2021 to December 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Health care outcomes including new SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospitalization, and deaths. The cost per death averted and cost-effectiveness ratios using a threshold for prevention interventions of $22 000 or less per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Results: The clinical cohort consisted of 636 individuals with COVID-19 (mean [SD] age 63 [18] years; 341 [54%] male). Most individuals were at high risk for severe COVID-19, including 137 (21%) with a body mass index of 30 or higher, 60 (9.4%) with hematological malignant neoplasm, 108 (17%) post-transplantation, and 152 (23.9%) who used immunosuppressive medication before COVID-19. Within the context of a high (18%) SARS-CoV-2 infection probability and low (25%) effectiveness the model calculated a short-term reduction of 42% ward admissions, 31% intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and 34% deaths. Cost-saving scenarios were obtained with drug prices of $275 and 75% or higher effectiveness. With a 100% effectiveness mAbs PrEP can reduce ward admissions by 70%, ICU admissions by 97%, and deaths by 92%. Drug prices, however, need to reduce to $550 for cost-effectiveness ratios less than $22 000 per QALY gained per death averted and to $2200 for ratios between $22 000 and $88 000. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, use of mAbs PrEP for preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections was cost-saving at the beginning of an epidemic wave (high infection probability) with 75% or higher effectiveness and drug price of $275. These results are timely and relevant for decision-makers involved in mAbs PrEP implementation. When newer mAbs PrEP combinations become available, guidance on implementation should be formulated ensuring a fast rollout. Nevertheless, advocacy for mAbs PrEP use and critical discussion on drug prices are necessary to ensuring cost-effectiveness for different epidemic settings.

Exploratory analyses in aetiologic research and considerations for assessment of credibility: mini-review of literature.

OBJECTIVE: To provide considerations for reporting and interpretation that can improve assessment of the credibility of exploratory analyses in aetiologic research. DESIGN: Mini-review of the literature and account of exploratory research principles. SETTING: This study focuses on a particular type of causal research, namely aetiologic studies, which investigate the causal effect of one or multiple risk factors on a particular health outcome or disease. The mini review included aetiologic research articles published in four epidemiology journals in the first issue of 2021: American Journal of Epidemiology, Epidemiology, European Journal of Epidemiology, and International Journal of Epidemiology, specifically focusing on observational studies of causal risk factors of diseases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of exposure-outcome associations reported, grouped by type of analysis (main, sensitivity, and additional). RESULTS: The journal articles reported many exposure-outcome associations: a mean number of 33 (range 1-120) exposure-outcome associations for the primary analysis, 30 (0-336) for sensitivity analyses, and 163 (0-1467) for additional analyses. Six considerations were discussed that are important in assessing the credibility of exploratory analyses: research problem, protocol, statistical criteria, interpretation of findings, completeness of reporting, and effect of exploratory findings on future causal research. CONCLUSIONS: Based on this mini-review, exploratory analyses in aetiologic research were not always reported properly. Six considerations for reporting of exploratory analyses in aetiologic research were provided to stimulate a discussion about their preferred handling and reporting. Researchers should take responsibility for the results of exploratory analyses by clearly reporting their exploratory nature and specifying which findings should be investigated in future research and how.

Assessment of Risks Associated With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Experimental Human Infection Studies.

Controlled human infection (CHI) models for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been proposed as a tool to accelerate the development of vaccines and drugs. Such models carry inherent risks. Participants may develop severe disease or complications after deliberate infection. Prolonged isolation may negatively impact their well-being. Through secondary infection of study personnel or participant household contacts, the experimental virus strain may cause a community outbreak. We identified risks associated with such a SARS-CoV-2 CHI model and assessed their likelihood and impact and propose strategies that mitigate these risks. In this report, we show that risks can be minimized with proper risk mitigation strategies; the residual risk, however, should be weighed carefully against the scientific and social values of such a CHI model.

Assessment of reproducibility and biological variability of fasting and postprandial plasma metabolite concentrations using 1H NMR spectroscopy.

INTRODUCTION: It is crucial to understand the factors that introduce variability before applying metabolomics to clinical and biomarker research. OBJECTIVES: We quantified technical and biological variability of both fasting and postprandial metabolite concentrations measured using 1H NMR spectroscopy in plasma samples. METHODS: In the Netherlands Epidemiology of Obesity study (n = 6,671), 148 metabolite concentrations (101 metabolites belonging to lipoprotein subclasses) were measured under fasting and postprandial states (150 minutes after a mixed liquid meal). Technical variability was evaluated among 265 fasting and 851 postprandial samples, with the identical blood plasma sample being measured twice by the same laboratory protocol. Biological reproducibility was assessed by measuring 165 individuals twice across time for evaluation of short- (<6 months) and long-term (>3 years) biological variability. Intra-class coefficients (ICCs) were used to assess variability. The ICCs of the fasting metabolites were compared with the postprandial metabolites using two-sided paired Wilcoxon test separately for short- and long-term measurements. RESULTS: Both fasting and postprandial metabolite concentrations showed high technical reproducibility using 1H NMR spectroscopy (median ICC = 0.99). Postprandial metabolite concentrations revealed slightly higher ICC scores than fasting ones in short-term repeat measures (median ICC in postprandial and fasting metabolite concentrations 0.72 versus 0.67, Wilcoxon p-value = 8.0×10-14). Variability did not increase further in a long-term repeat measure, with median ICC in postprandial of 0.64 and in fasting metabolite concentrations 0.66. CONCLUSION: Technical reproducibility is excellent. Biological reproducibility of postprandial metabolite concentrations showed a less or equal variability than fasting metabolite concentrations over time.

The Association between Habitual Sleep Duration and Sleep Quality with Glycemic Traits: Assessment by Cross-Sectional and Mendelian Randomization Analyses.

Evidence on whether habitual sleep duration and sleep quality are associated with increased insulin resistance is inconsistent. Here, we investigated the associations between different measures of habitual sleep with glycemic traits through cross-sectional and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses. We assessed the associations of sleep duration and sleep quality with glycemic traits using multivariable linear regression models adjusted for potential confounders in 4672 middle-aged (45-65 years; 48% men) nondiabetic participants of the Netherlands Epidemiology of Obesity (NEO) study. Genetic variants for total, short, and long sleep duration were used as instrumental variables in MR analyses using summary-level data of glycemic traits in nondiabetic individuals (MAGIC; n = 58,074). In cross-sectional analyses, shortest sleepers (median 5.0 h of sleep per night) had 14.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.0; 28.6%) higher fasting insulin level and 16.3% (95% CI: 2.7; 31.7%) higher HOMA-ß. Bad sleep quality was associated with higher insulin resistance (e.g., 14.3% (95% CI: 4.7; 24.9%) higher HOMA-IR). All these associations disappeared after adjustment for BMI and the risk of sleep apnea. MR analyses did not indicate a causal association between total, short or long sleep duration and glycemic traits. Therefore, our used measures of habitual sleep duration and sleep quality are unlikely to directly associate with insulin resistance.

Do Comorbidities Play a Role in Hand Osteoarthritis Disease Burden? Data from the Hand Osteoarthritis in Secondary Care Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Because the association and its clinical relevance between comorbidities and primary hand osteoarthritis (OA) disease burden is unclear, we studied this in patients with hand OA from our Hand OSTeoArthritis in Secondary care (HOSTAS) cohort. METHODS: Cross-sectional data from the HOSTAS study were used, including consecutive patients with primary hand OA. Nineteen comorbidities were assessed: 18 self-reported (modified Charlson index and osteoporosis) and obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2). Mean differences were estimated between patients with versus without comorbidities, adjusted for age and sex: for general disease burden [health-related quality of life (HRQOL), Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36 physical component scale (0-100)] and disease-specific burden [self-reported hand function (0-36), pain (0-20; Australian/Canadian Hand OA Index), and tender joint count (TJC, 0-30)]. Differences above a minimal clinically important improvement/difference were considered clinically relevant. RESULTS: The study included 538 patients (mean age 61 yrs, 86% women, 88% fulfilled American College of Rheumatology classification criteria). Mean (SD) HRQOL, function, pain, and TJC were 44.7 (8), 15.6 (9), 9.3 (4), and 4.8 (5), respectively. Any comorbidity was present in 54% (287/531) of patients and this was unfavorable [adjusted mean difference presence/absence any comorbidity (95% CI): HRQOL -4.4 (-5.8 to -3.0), function 1.9 (0.4-3.3), pain 1.4 (0.6-2.1), TJC 1.3 (0.4-2.2)]. Number of comorbidities and both musculoskeletal (e.g., connective tissue disease) and nonmusculoskeletal comorbidities (e.g., pulmonary and cardiovascular disease) were associated with disease burden. Associations with HRQOL and function were clinically relevant. CONCLUSION: Comorbidities showed clinically relevant associations with disease burden. Therefore, the role of comorbidities in hand OA should be considered when interpreting disease outcomes and in patient management.

Healthcare and disease burden among refugees in long-stay refugee camps at Lesbos, Greece.

OBJECTIVES: To assess current medical problems at two Greek refugee sites at Lesbos island (Camp Moria and Caritas hotel), to explore which care is needed and to assess how the provided healthcare can be improved. DESIGN: In this dynamic cohort study all consecutive patients who visited doctors from the Boat Refugee Foundation were included. OUTCOME: Treatment Rates (TR) with 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) were calculated for all major health issues. Additionally, the provided health care was evaluated using the SPHERE project standards. RESULTS: During the observation period of 30 March 2016 to 15 May 2016, 2291 persons were followed for a total of 289 person years (py). The median age of patients was 23.0 (IQR 8-38) years, 30.0% was aged <18. The healthcare demand was high with 3.6 patient visits per py. Upper respiratory tract infections were most commonly diagnosed with a TR of 89.6/100py (95% CI 78.7-10.1) followed by dental problems (TR 18.0/100py, 95% CI 13.1-22.9). The rate of suicide attempts was high at TR 1.4/100py (95% CI 0.03-2.8), and many psychological problems were diagnosed, TR 19.4/100py (95% CI 14.3-24.4). Major health care threats are the lack of a vaccination program, inadequate sanitation and hygiene, and severe overcrowding. CONCLUSIONS: This study can help policy makers and Non-Governmental Organizations decide which health care is needed most in the current European refugee crisis. There is an urgent need for mental and dental healthcare. Furthermore, it is crucial that vaccination programs are initiated and "hotspot" camps should transform in camps designed for long-stay situations.

Instruments Measuring Pain, Physical Function, or Patient's Global Assessment in Hand Osteoarthritis: A Systematic Literature Search.

OBJECTIVE: Description of use and metric properties of instruments measuring pain, physical function, or patient's global assessment (PtGA) in hand osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: Medical literature databases up to January 2014 were systematically reviewed for studies reporting on instruments measuring pain, physical function, or PtGA in hand OA. The frequency of the use of these instruments were described, as well as their metric properties, including discrimination (reliability, sensitivity to change), feasibility, and validity. RESULTS: In 66 included studies, various questionnaires and performance- or assessor-based instruments were applied for evaluation of pain, physical function, or PtGA. No major differences regarding metric properties were observed between the instruments, although the amount of supporting evidence varied. The most frequently evaluated questionnaires were the Australian/Canadian Hand OA Index (AUSCAN) pain subscale and visual analog scale (VAS) pain for pain assessment, and the AUSCAN function subscale and Functional Index for Hand OA (FIHOA) for physical function assessment. Excellent reliability was shown for the AUSCAN and FIHOA, and good sensitivity to change for all mentioned instruments; additionally, the FIHOA had good feasibility. Good construct validity was suggested for all mentioned questionnaires. The most commonly applied performance- or assessor-based instruments were the grip and pinch strength for the assessment of physical function, and the assessment of pain by palpation. For these measures, good sensitivity to change and construct validity were established. CONCLUSION: The AUSCAN, FIHOA, VAS pain, grip and pinch strength, and pain on palpation were most frequently used and provided most supporting evidence for good metric properties. More research has to be performed to compare the different instruments with each other.

Overweight can be used as a tool to guide case-finding for cardiovascular risk assessment.

BACKGROUND: In general practice, it is too time-consuming to invite all patients for cardiovascular risk assessment. OBJECTIVE: To examine how many patients with an indication for treatment with cardiovascular medication can be identified by ad hoc case-finding when all patients with overweight/obesity are invited for risk assessment. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis of the baseline measurements of the Netherlands Epidemiology of Obesity study, a population-based prospective cohort study in 6673 persons aged 45-65 years. We calculated the proportion of participants with a treatment indication using the risk prediction Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE-NL 2011), for lean, overweight and obese participants. Participants with a history of cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus or rheumatoid arthritis or using cardiovascular medication were not eligible for ad hoc case-finding because they were already identified as being at risk and/or had been treated. RESULTS: Of the study population, 30% had already been identified and/or treated with cardiovascular medication and were therefore not eligible for ad hoc case-finding. Of the eligible participants, 47% were lean, 41% overweight and 12% obese. Of the participants with overweight, 12% had a treatment indication and of the participants with obesity, 19% had a treatment indication. Of all participants with a treatment indication 24% were not yet treated. Of all participants with a new treatment indication, 70% had overweight or obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Of the participants with a treatment indication, 24% were not yet treated. Inviting patients with overweight/obesity for cardiovascular risk assessment may help to detect 70% of these residual patients with a treatment indication.

Smoking is associated with increased resting energy expenditure in the general population: The NEO study.

OBJECTIVE: Animal studies and human studies in small selected populations have shown a positive association between nicotine smoking and resting energy expenditure (REE), but data in large cohorts are lacking. We aimed to investigate the association between smoking behavior and REE in a large, population-based study. DESIGN: Population-based cross-sectional study. METHODS: In this cross-sectional analysis of baseline measurements from the Netherlands Epidemiology of Obesity (NEO) study (n=6673), we included participants with REE measurement by indirect calorimetry who were not using lipid or glucose lowering drugs (n=1189). We used linear regression analysis to examine the association of smoking status (never, former, occasional, current smoker) and smoking quantity (pack years) with REE per kilogram (kg) fat free mass (FFM) and with REE adjusted for FFM. Models were adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, educational level, physical activity, energy intake and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: Mean (standard deviation, SD) age was 55.2 (5.9) years and BMI was 26.3 (4.4) kg/m(2). 60% of the participants were women. Mean (SD) REE/FFM (kcal/day/kg FFM) was for male never smokers 25.1 (2.0), male current smokers 26.4 (2.8), female never smokers 28.9 (2.5) and female current smokers 30.1 (3.7). After adjustment, only current smokers had a higher REE/FFM (mean difference 1.28, 95% CI 0.64, 1.92), and a higher REE adjusted for FFM (mean difference 60.3 kcal/day, 95% CI 29.1, 91.5), compared with never smokers. There was no association between pack years and REE/FFM (mean difference -0.01, 95% CI -0.06, 0.04) or REE adjusted for FFM (mean difference 0.2, 95% CI -2.4, 2.8) in current smokers. CONCLUSION: Current smoking is associated with a higher resting energy expenditure compared with never smoking in a large population-based cohort.

WARRIOR-trial - is routine radiography following the 2-week initial follow-up in trauma patients with wrist and ankle fractures necessary: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Extremity fractures such as wrist and ankle fractures are a common and costly healthcare problem. The management of these fractures depends on fracture type and loss of congruity of the joint, resulting in cast immobilization or operative treatment. Loss of congruity or displacement leading to uneven joint loading, osteoarthritis and an increased probability of a poor functional outcome should be identified within the first 2 weeks post-trauma, based upon radiographs to determine optimal treatment. After this period, routine radiographs are scheduled for monitoring the bone-healing process. Current protocols describe imaging at 1, 2, 6 and 12 weeks post-trauma. However, it is questionable whether routine radiography following the initial follow-up ( 2-weeks post-trauma) is cost effective. The aim of this study is to determine whether a modification of the radiographic follow-up protocol can be conducted with no worse outcome and less cost than the current standard of care for patients with a wrist or ankle fracture. METHODS/DESIGN: In a multicenter randomized controlled trial, 697 patients aged 18 years or older will be included: 385 wrist fracture- and 312 ankle fracture patients. Patients will be randomized into two groups: Group 1 receives usual care, consisting of radiographs 1, 2, 6 and 12 weeks post-trauma; Group 2 receives radiographs beyond the initial follow-up only when clinically indicated. The primary outcome is the overall extremity-specific function. For wrist fractures, this includes the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand Score; for the ankle fractures, this includes the Olerud and Molander ankle score. Secondary outcomes include: healthcare cost, the specific function measured with the Patient Rated Wrist and Hand Evaluation for wrist fractures and American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons foot and ankle questionnaire for ankle fractures, pain-intensity, health-related quality of life, self-perceived recovery, and complications. Both groups will be monitored at 1, 2, and 6 weeks and 3, 6, and 12 months. DISCUSSION: This study will provide data on (cost) effectiveness of routine radiography in the follow-up of wrist and ankle fractures, and could pave the way for a change in (inter)national protocols. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Netherlands Trial Register NTR4610 , registration date 22 June 2014.

Comparison of clinical burden between patients with erosive hand osteoarthritis and inflammatory arthritis in symptomatic community-dwelling adults: the Keele clinical assessment studies.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate in the general population the clinical impact of erosive OA in interphalangeal joints (IPJs) compared with symptomatic radiographic hand OA and inflammatory arthritis. METHODS: Standardized assessments with hand radiographs were performed in participants of two population-based cohorts in North Staffordshire with hand symptoms lasting ≥1 day in the past month. Erosive OA was defined as the presence of an eroded or remodelled phase in ≥1 IPJ using the Verbruggen-Veys method. Radiographic hand OA was defined as the presence of ≥1 IPJ/first carpometacarpal joint with a Kellgren-Lawrence score of ≥2. Diagnoses of inflammatory arthritis were based on medical records. Hand pain and disability were assessed with the Australian/Canadian Hand Osteoarthritis Index (AUSCAN). Linear regression analyses were used to compare clinical determinants between groups and calculate mean differences with 95% CIs, adjusted for age and sex. RESULTS: Of 1076 participants with hand symptoms [60% women, mean age 64.8 years (s.d. 8.3 years)]; 80 persons (7.4%) had erosive OA. The population prevalence of erosive OA in ≥1 IPJ was 2.4% (95% CI 1.8, 3.0). Persons with erosive OA reported more pain and disability than persons with symptomatic radiographic hand OA [adjusted mean difference 1.3 (95% CI 0.3, 2.3) and 2.3 (95% CI 0.4, 4.2), respectively]. Individuals with inflammatory arthritis (n = 44) reported more pain and disability than those with erosive OA [adjusted mean difference 1.7 (95% CI 0.05, 3.4) and 6.3 (95% CI 2.8, 9.9), respectively]. CONCLUSION: While erosive OA has a greater impact than symptomatic radiographic hand OA in the general population, it is not as severe in terms of hand pain and disability as inflammatory RA.

Multiple SNP testing improves risk prediction of first venous thrombosis.

There are no risk models available yet that accurately predict a person's risk for developing venous thrombosis. Our aim was therefore to explore whether inclusion of established thrombosis-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a venous thrombosis risk model improves the risk prediction. We calculated genetic risk scores by counting risk-increasing alleles from 31 venous thrombosis-associated SNPs for subjects of a large case-control study, including 2712 patients and 4634 controls (Multiple Environmental and Genetic Assessment). Genetic risk scores based on all 31 SNPs or on the 5 most strongly associated SNPs performed similarly (areas under receiver-operating characteristic curves [AUCs] of 0.70 and 0.69, respectively). For the 5-SNP risk score, the odds ratios for venous thrombosis ranged from 0.37 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.25-0.53) for persons with 0 risk alleles to 7.48 (95% CI, 4.49-12.46) for persons with more than or equal to 6 risk alleles. The AUC of a risk model based on known nongenetic risk factors was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.76-0.78). Combining the nongenetic and genetic risk models improved the AUC to 0.82 (95% CI, 0.81-0.83), indicating good diagnostic accuracy. To become clinically useful, subgroups of high-risk persons must be identified in whom genetic profiling will also be cost-effective.

Risk assessment for recurrent venous thrombosis.

Venous thrombosis is a common disease that frequently recurs. Recurrence can be prevented by anticoagulants, albeit at the cost of bleeding. Thus, assessment of the risk of recurrence is important to balance the risks and benefits of anticoagulation treatment. Many clinical and laboratory risk factors for recurrent venous thrombosis have been established. Nevertheless, prediction of recurrence in an individual patient remains a challenge. Detection of some laboratory markers is associated with only a moderate risk of recurrence, and the relevance of others is not known. Many patients have several risk factors and the effect of combined defects is obscure. Routine screening for these laboratory markers should therefore be abandoned. Risk assessment can be improved by measurement of global markers that encompass the effects of clotting and fibrinolytic disorders. Analysis of preliminary data suggests that risk assessment can also be refined through integration of prothrombotic coagulation changes and clinical risk factors.

A systematic review of cost-effectiveness analyses of pharmacogenetic-guided dosing in treatment with coumarin derivatives.

Anticoagulant therapy with coumarin derivatives is often sub- or supra-therapeutic, resulting in an increased risk of thromboembolic events or hemorrhage, respectively. Pharmacogenetic-guided dosing has been proposed as an effective way of reducing bleeding rates. Clinical trials to confirm the safety, efficacy and effectiveness of this strategy are ongoing, but in addition, it is also necessary to consider the cost-effectiveness of this strategy. This article describes the findings of a systematic review of published cost-effectiveness analyses of pharmacogenetic-guided dosing of coumarin derivatives. Similarities and differences in the approaches used were examined and the quality of the analyses was assessed. The results of the analyses are not sufficient to determine whether or not pharmacogenetic-guided dosing of coumarins is cost effective. More reliable cost-effectiveness estimates need to become available before it is possible to recommend whether or not this strategy should be applied in clinical practice.

Genotype-guided dosing of coumarin derivatives: the European pharmacogenetics of anticoagulant therapy (EU-PACT) trial design.

The narrow therapeutic range and wide interpatient variability in dose requirement make anticoagulation response to coumarin derivatives unpredictable. As a result, patients require frequent monitoring to avert adverse effects and maintain therapeutic efficacy. Polymorphisms in VKORC1 and CYP2C9 jointly account for about 40% of the interindividual variability in dose requirements. To date, several pharmacogenetic-guided dosing algorithms for coumarin derivatives, predominately for warfarin, have been developed. However, the potential benefit of these dosing algorithms in terms of their safety and clinical utility has not been adequately investigated in randomized settings. The European Pharmacogenetics of Anticoagulant Therapy (EU-PACT) trial will assess, in a single-blinded and randomized controlled trial with a follow-up period of 3 months, the safety and clinical utility of genotype-guided dosing in daily practice for the three main coumarin derivatives used in Europe. The primary outcome measure is the percentage time in the therapeutic range for international normalized ratio. This report describes the design and protocol for the trial.