Characteristics and End-of-Life Care Pathways of Decedents From a National Cohort of Assisted Living Residents.

BACKGROUND: Assisted living (AL) is an increasingly common, place of care for dying persons. However, it remains unclear to what extent residents are able to age in place or if AL represents an additional transition before death. OBJECTIVES: Examine the sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, health care utilization, and end-of-life care pathways of AL residents before death. RESEARCH DESIGN: A national cohort study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries residing in large AL communities (25+ beds) during the month of January 2017 with 3 years of follow-up, using administrative claims data. SUBJECTS: 268,812 AL residents. MEASURES: Sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, and health care utilization at the end of life. RESULTS: Between 2017 and 2019, 35.1% of the study cohort died. Decedents were more likely than the overall AL population to be 85 years old or older (76.5% vs. 59.5%), and diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease and related dementia (70.3% vs. 51.6%). Most decedents (96.2%) had some presence in AL during the last year of life, but over 1 in 5 left AL before the last month of life. Among those in AL on day 30 before death, nearly half (46.4%) died in place without any health care transition, while 13.2% had 3 or more transfers before dying. CONCLUSIONS: AL is an important place of care for dying persons, especially for those with dementia. These findings indicate a need to assess existing policies and processes guiding the care of the frail and vulnerable population of dying AL residents.

Identifying Medicare beneficiaries with Alzheimer's disease and related dementia using home health OASIS assessments.

BACKGROUND: Home health services are an important site of care following hospitalization among Medicare beneficiaries, providing health assessments that can be leveraged to detect diagnoses that are not available in other data sources. In this work, we aimed to develop a parsimonious and accurate algorithm using home health outcome and assessment information set (OASIS) measures to identify Medicare beneficiaries with a diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease and related dementia (ADRD). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries with a complete OASIS start of care assessment in 2014, 2016, 2018, or 2019 to determine how well the items from various versions could identify those with an ADRD diagnosis by the assessment date. The prediction model was developed iteratively, comparing the performance of different models in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of prediction, from a multivariable logistic regression model using clinically relevant variables, to regression models with all available variables and predictive modeling techniques, to estimate the best performing parsimonious model. RESULTS: The most important predictors of having a diagnosis of ADRD by the start of care OASIS assessment were a prior discharge diagnosis of ADRD among those admitted from an inpatient setting, and frequently exhibiting symptoms of confusion. Results from the parsimonious model were consistent across the four annual cohorts and OASIS versions with high specificity (above 96%), but poor sensitivity (below 58%). The positive predictive value was high, over 87% across study years. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed algorithm has high accuracy, requires a single OASIS assessment, is easy to implement without sophisticated statistical models, and can be used across four OASIS versions and in situations where claims are not available to identify individuals with a diagnosis of ADRD, including the growing population of Medicare Advantage beneficiaries.

State Regulations and Assisted Living Residents' Potentially Burdensome Transitions at the End of Life.

Background: Potentially burdensome transitions at the end of life (e.g., repeated hospitalizations toward the end of life and/or health care transitions in the last three days of life) are common among residential care/assisted living (RC/AL) residents, and are associated with lower quality of end-of-life care reported by bereaved family members. We examined the association between state RC/AL regulations relevant to end-of-life care delivery and the likelihood of residents experiencing potentially burdensome transitions. Methods: Retrospective cohort study combining RC/AL registries of states' regulations with Medicare claims data for residents in large RC/ALs (i.e., 25+ beds) in the United States on the 120th day before death (N = 129,153), 2017-2019. Independent variables were state RC/AL regulations relevant to end-of-life care, including third-party services, staffing, and medication management. Analyses included: (1) separate logistic regression models for each RC/AL regulation, adjusting for sociodemographic covariates; (2) separate logistic regression models with a Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) subgroup to control for comorbidities, and (3) multivariable regression analysis, including all regulations in both the overall sample and the Medicare FFS subgroup. Results: We found a lack of associations between potentially burdensome transitions and regulations regarding third-party services and staffing. There were small associations found between regulations related to medication management (i.e., requiring regular medication reviews, permitting direct care workers for injections, requiring/not requiring licensed nursing staff for injections) and potentially burdensome transitions. Conclusions: In this cross-sectional study, the associations of RC/AL regulations with potentially burdensome transitions were either small or not statistically significant, calling for more studies to explain the wide variation observed in end-of-life outcomes among RC/AL residents.

Association Between State Regulations Supportive of Third-party Services and Likelihood of Assisted Living Residents in the US Dying in Place.

Importance: Older adults are increasingly residing in assisted living residences during their last year of life. The regulations guiding these residential care settings differ between and within the states in the US, resulting in diverse policies that may support residents who wish to die in place. Objective: To examine the association between state regulations and the likelihood of assisted living residents dying in place. The study hypothesis was that regulations supporting third-party services, such as hospice, increase the likelihood of assisted living residents dying in place. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study combined data about assisted living residences in the US from state registries with an inventory of state regulations and administrative claims data. The study participants comprised 168 526 decedents who were Medicare beneficiaries, resided in 8315 large, assisted living residences (with ≥25 beds) across 301 hospital referral regions during the last 12 months of their lives, and died between 2017 and 2019. Descriptive analyses were performed at the state level, and 3-level multilevel models were estimated to examine the association between supportive third-party regulations and dying in place in assisted living residences. The data were analyzed from September 2021 to August 2022. Exposures: Supportive (vs "silent," ie, not explicitly mentioned in regulatory texts) state regulations regarding hospice care, private care aides, and home health services, as applicable to licensed/registered assisted living residences across the US. Main Outcomes and Measures: Presence in assisted living residences on the date of death. Results: The median (IQR) age of the 168 526 decedents included in the study was 90 (84-94) years. Of these, 110 143 (65.4%) were female and 158 491 (94.0%) were non-Hispanic White. Substantial variation in the percentage of assisted living residents dying in place was evident across states, from 18.0% (New York) to 73.7% (Utah). Supportive hospice and home health regulations were associated with a higher odds of residents dying in place (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.38; 95% CI, 1.24-1.54; P < .001; and AOR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.10-1.34; P < .001, respectively). In addition, hospice regulations remained significant in fully adjusted models (AOR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.25-1.71). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest that a higher percentage of assisted living residents died in place in US states with regulations supportive of third-party services. In addition, assisted living residents in licensed settings with regulations supportive of hospice regulations were especially likely to die in place.

State Regulations and Hospice Utilization in Assisted Living During the Last Month of Life.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between hospice/staffing regulations in residential care or assisted living (RC/AL) and hospice utilization among a national cohort of Medicare decedents residing in RC/AL at least 1 day during the last month of life, and to describe patterns of hospice utilization. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries who died in 2018 and resided in an RC/AL community with ≥25 beds at least 1 day during the last month of life. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: 23,285 decedents who spent time in 6274 RC/AL communities with 146 state license classifications. METHODS: Descriptive statistics about hospice use; logistic regression models to test the association between regulations supportive of hospice care or registered nurse (RN) staffing requirements and the odds of hospice use in RC/AL in the last month of life. RESULTS: More than half (56.4%) of the study cohort received hospice care in RC/AL at some point during the last 30 days of life, including 5.7% who received more intensive continuous home care (CHC). A larger proportion of decedents who resided in RC/ALs with supportive hospice policies received hospice (57.3% vs 52.6%), with this difference driven by more CHC hospice programs. This association remained significant after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, time spent in RC/AL, and Hospital Referral Region fixed effects. Decedents in RC/ALs with explicit RN staffing requirements had significantly less CHC use (2.0% vs 6.8%). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: A large proportion of RC/AL decedents received hospice care in RC/AL regardless of differing regulations. Those in licensed settings with explicitly supportive hospice regulations were significantly more likely to receive hospice care in RC/AL during the last month of life, especially CHC level of hospice care. Regulatory change in states that do not yet explicitly allow hospice care in RC/AL may potentially increase hospice utilization in this setting, although the implications for quality of care remain unclear.

Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Hypertension Screening and Treatment in Adults with Hypertension in Rural Nigeria in the Context of a Health Insurance Program.

BACKGROUND: High blood pressure is a leading risk factor for death and disability in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We evaluated the costs and cost-effectiveness of hypertension care provided within the Kwara State Health Insurance (KSHI) program in rural Nigeria. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to assess the costs and cost-effectiveness of population-level hypertension screening and subsequent antihypertensive treatment for the population at-risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) within the KSHI program. The primary outcome was the incremental cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted in the KSHI scenario compared to no access to hypertension care. We used setting-specific and empirically-collected data to inform the model. We defined two strategies to assess eligibility for antihypertensive treatment based on 1) presence of hypertension grade 1 and 10-year CVD risk of >20%, or grade 2 hypertension irrespective of 10-year CVD risk (hypertension and risk based strategy) and 2) presence of hypertension in combination with a CVD risk of >20% (risk based strategy). We generated 95% confidence intervals around the primary outcome through probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We conducted one-way sensitivity analyses across key model parameters and assessed the sensitivity of our results to the performance of the reference scenario. RESULTS: Screening and treatment for hypertension was potentially cost-effective but the results were sensitive to changes in underlying assumptions with a wide range of uncertainty. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the first and second strategy respectively ranged from US$ 1,406 to US$ 7,815 and US$ 732 to US$ 2,959 per DALY averted, depending on the assumptions on risk reduction after treatment and compared to no access to antihypertensive treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension care within a subsidized private health insurance program may be cost-effective in rural Nigeria and public-private partnerships such as the KSHI program may provide opportunities to finance CVD prevention care in SSA.

Sustained effect of health insurance and facility quality improvement on blood pressure in adults with hypertension in Nigeria: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is a leading risk factor for death in sub-Saharan Africa. Quality treatment is often not available nor affordable. We assessed the effect of a voluntary health insurance program, including quality improvement of healthcare facilities, on blood pressure (BP) in hypertensive adults in rural Nigeria. METHODS: We compared changes in outcomes from baseline (2009) to midline (2011) and endline (2013) between non-pregnant hypertensive adults in the insurance program area (PA) and a control area (CA), through household surveys. The primary outcome was the difference between the PA and CA in change in BP, using difference-in-differences analysis. RESULTS: Of 1500 eligible households, 1450 (96.7%) participated, including 559 (20.8%) hypertensive individuals, of which 332 (59.4%) had follow-up data. Insurance coverage increased from 0% at baseline to 41.8% at endline in the PA and remained under 1% in the CA. The PA showed a 4.97 mm Hg (95% CI: -0.76 to +10.71 mm Hg) greater decrease in systolic BP and a 1.81 mm Hg (-1.06 to +4.68 mm Hg) greater decrease in diastolic BP from baseline to endline compared to the CA. Respondents with stage 2 hypertension showed an 11.43 mm Hg (95% CI: 1.62 to 21.23 mm Hg) greater reduction in systolic BP and 3.15 mm Hg (-1.22 to +7.53 mm Hg) greater reduction in diastolic BP in the PA compared to the CA. Attrition did not affect the results. CONCLUSION: Access to improved quality healthcare through an insurance program in rural Nigeria was associated with a significant longer-term reduction in systolic BP in subjects with moderate or severe hypertension.

Improving Maternal Care through a State-Wide Health Insurance Program: A Cost and Cost-Effectiveness Study in Rural Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: While the Nigerian government has made progress towards the Millennium Development Goals, further investments are needed to achieve the targets of post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals, including Universal Health Coverage. Economic evaluations of innovative interventions can help inform investment decisions in resource-constrained settings. We aim to assess the cost and cost-effectiveness of maternal care provided within the new Kwara State Health Insurance program (KSHI) in rural Nigeria. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a decision analytic model to simulate a cohort of pregnant women. The primary outcome is the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the KSHI scenario compared to the current standard of care. Intervention cost from a healthcare provider perspective included service delivery costs and above-service level costs; these were evaluated in a participating hospital and using financial records from the managing organisations, respectively. Standard of care costs from a provider perspective were derived from the literature using an ingredient approach. We generated 95% credibility intervals around the primary outcome through probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) based on a Monte Carlo simulation. We conducted one-way sensitivity analyses across key model parameters and assessed the sensitivity of our results to the performance of the base case separately through a scenario analysis. Finally, we assessed the sustainability and feasibility of this program's scale up within the State's healthcare financing structure through a budget impact analysis. The KSHI scenario results in a health benefit to patients at a higher cost compared to the base case. The mean ICER (US$46.4/disability-adjusted life year averted) is considered very cost-effective compared to a willingness-to-pay threshold of one gross domestic product per capita (Nigeria, US$ 2012, 2,730). Our conclusion was robust to uncertainty in parameters estimates (PSA: median US$49.1, 95% credible interval 21.9-152.3), during one-way sensitivity analyses, and when cost, quality, cost and utilization parameters of the base case scenario were changed. The sustainability of this program's scale up by the State is dependent on further investments in healthcare. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that the investment made by the KSHI program in rural Nigeria is likely to have been cost-effective; however, further healthcare investments are needed for this program to be successfully expanded within Kwara State. Policy makers should consider supporting financial initiatives to reduce maternal mortality tackling both supply and demand issues in the access to care.

Feasibility and quality of cardiovascular disease prevention within a community-based health insurance program in rural Nigeria: an operational cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the feasibility of providing guideline-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention care within the context of a community-based health insurance program (CBHI) in rural Nigeria. METHODS: A prospective operational cohort study was conducted in a primary healthcare clinic in rural Nigeria, participating in a CBHI program. The insurance program provided access to care and improved the quality of the clinics participating in the program, including CVD prevention guideline implementation. Insured adults at risk of CVD were consecutively included upon clinic attendance. The primary outcome was quality of care determined by scoring of quality indicators on patient files of the cohort, 1.5 year after guideline implementation. RESULTS: Of the 368 screened patients, 349 were included and 323 (93%) completed 1 year of follow-up. The majority of patients (331, 95%) had hypertension. Process indicators showed that 114/115 (99%) new hypertension cases had a record of CVD risk assessment and 249/333 (75%) eligible cases a record of lifestyle advice. Outcome indicators showed that in 292/328 (64%) hypertension cases, blood pressure was on target. Barriers to care included limited human resources, limited affordability of diagnostic tests and multidrug regimes for the healthcare provider, frequent doctor's appointments, and inefficient drug supplies. CONCLUSION: Implementation of CVD prevention care within the context of a CBHI program resulted in high-quality care in rural sub-Saharan Africa, comparable to high-income countries. However, guideline implementation was resource-intense and specific recommendations were not feasible. Simple models of care delivery are needed for rapid scale-up of CVD prevention services in sub-Saharan Africa.