Retinal imaging for the assessment of stroke risk: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Retinal imaging allows non-invasive assessment of the microvasculature. Consequently, retinal imaging is a technology which is garnering increasing attention as a means of assessing cardiovascular health and stroke risk. METHODS: A biomedical literature search was performed to identify prospective studies that assess the role of retinal imaging derived biomarkers as indicators of stroke risk. RESULTS: Twenty-four studies were included in this systematic review. The available evidence suggests that wider retinal venules, lower fractal dimension, increased arteriolar tortuosity, presence of retinopathy, and presence of retinal emboli are associated with increased likelihood of stroke. There is weaker evidence to suggest that narrower arterioles and the presence of individual retinopathy traits such as microaneurysms and arteriovenous nicking indicate increased stroke risk. Our review identified three models utilizing artificial intelligence algorithms for the analysis of retinal images to predict stroke. Two of these focused on fundus photographs, whilst one also utilized optical coherence tomography (OCT) technology images. The constructed models performed similarly to conventional risk scores but did not significantly exceed their performance. Only two studies identified in this review used OCT imaging, despite the higher dimensionality of this data. CONCLUSION: Whilst there is strong evidence that retinal imaging features can be used to indicate stroke risk, there is currently no predictive model which significantly outperforms conventional risk scores. To develop clinically useful tools, future research should focus on utilization of deep learning algorithms, validation in external cohorts, and analysis of OCT images.

Rural versus metropolitan comparison of processes of care in the community-based management of TIA and minor stroke in Australia (an analysis from the INSIST study).

OBJECTIVES: To compare processes of care and clinical outcomes of community-based management of TIAs and minor strokes (TIAMS) between rural and metropolitan Australia. DESIGN: Inception cohort study between 2012 and 2016 with 12-month follow-up after index event (sub-study of INSIST). SETTING: Hunter and Manning valley regions of New South Wales, within the referral territory of the John Hunter Hospital Acute Neurovascular Clinic (JHHANC). PARTICIPANTS: Consecutive patients of 16 participating general practices, presenting with possible TIAMS to either primary or secondary care. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Processes of care (referrals, key management processes, time-based metrics) and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Of 613 participants with possible TIAMS who completed the baseline interview, 298 were adjudicated as having TIAMS (119 from rural, 179 from metropolitan). Mean age was 72.3 years (SD, 10.7) and 127 (43%) were women. Rural participants were more likely to be managed solely by a general practitioner (GP) than metropolitan participants (34% v 20%) and less likely to be referred to a JHHANC specialist (13% v 38%) or have brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) [24% v 51%]. Those rural participants who were referred, also waited longer (both p < 0.001). Recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction and death at 12 months were not significantly different between rural and metropolitan participants. CONCLUSIONS: Although TIAMS prognosis in rural settings where solely GP care is common is very good, the processes of care in such areas are inferior to metropolitan. This suggests there is further scope to support rural GPs to optimise care of TIAMS patients.

Long-Term Impact of Urgent Secondary Prevention After Transient Ischemic Attack and Minor Stroke: Ten-Year Follow-Up of the EXPRESS Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Urgent assessment aimed at reducing stroke risk after transient ischemic attack or minor stroke is cost-effective over the short-term. However, it is unclear if the short-term impact is lost on long-term follow-up, with recurrent events being delayed rather than prevented. By 10-year follow-up of the EXPRESS study (Early Use of Existing Preventive Strategies for Stroke), previously showing urgent assessment reduced 90-day stroke risk by 80%, we determined whether that early benefit was still evident long-term for stroke risk, disability, and costs. METHODS: EXPRESS was a prospective population-based before (phase 1: April 2002-September 2004; n=310) versus after (phase 2: October 2004-March 2007; n=281) study of the effect of early assessment and treatment of transient ischemic attack/minor stroke on early recurrent stroke risk, with an external control. This report assesses the effect on 10-year recurrent stroke risk, functional outcomes, quality-of-life, and costs. RESULTS: A reduction in stroke risk in phase 2 was still evident at 10 years (55/23.3% versus 82/31.6%; hazard ratio=0.68 [95% CI, 0.48-0.95]; P=0.024), as was the impact on risk of disabling or fatal stroke (17/7.7% versus 32/13.1%; hazard ratio=0.54 [0.30-0.97]; P=0.036). These effects were due to maintenance of the early reduction in stroke risk, with neither additional benefit nor rebound catch-up after 90 days (post-90 days hazard ratio=0.88 [0.65-1.44], P=0.88; and hazard ratio=0.83 [0.42-1.65], P=0.59, respectively). Disability-free life expectancy was 0.59 (0.03-1.15; P=0.043) years higher in patients in phase 2, as was quality-adjusted life expectancy (0.49 [0.03-0.95]; P=0.036). Overall, 10-year costs were nonsignificantly higher in patients attending the phase 2 clinic ($1022 [-3865-5907]; P=0.66). The additional cost per quality-adjusted life year gained in phase 2 versus phase 1 was $2103, well below current cost-effectiveness thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: Urgent assessment and treatment of patients with transient ischemic attack or minor stroke resulted in a long-term reduction in recurrent strokes and improved outcomes, with little atrophy of the early benefit over time, representing good value for money even with a 10-year time horizon. Our results suggest that other effective acute treatments in transient ischemic attack/minor stroke in the short-term will also have the potential to have long-term benefit.

Costs of bleeding on long-term antiplatelet treatment without routine co-prescription of proton-pump inhibitors.

BACKGROUND: Long-term antiplatelet treatment is associated with major bleeding. AIMS: To determine the costs associated with major bleeding in patients treated with aspirin-based antiplatelet treatment for secondary prevention of vascular events without routine prescription of proton-pump inhibitors and to estimate the likely long-term savings from routine co-prescription. METHODS: In a prospective population-based cohort study of TIA, ischemic stroke, and MI treated with antiplatelet drugs, we evaluated hospital care costs associated with bleed management during 10-year follow-up. Bleeding-associated costs were averaged across all patients. For upper GI-bleeds, mean costs were compared with the cost of routine co-prescription of proton-pump inhibitor. RESULTS: Among 3166 patients on antiplatelet therapy with 405 first bleeding events, the average cost of major bleeding was $13,093 (S.D. 20,501), with similar costs for upper GI bleeds and intracranial bleeds (p = 0.235). However, total costs among the 3166 patients were higher for upper GI bleeds ($1,158,385 vs. $740,123). Averaged across all patients, the 10-year cost of major bleeding was $838 (95%CI: 680-1007), $411 due to upper GI bleeding, the cost of which increased from $175 in those aged <75 years to $644 at age ≥75 years (p < 0.0001). The corresponding costs of routine life-long co-prescription of proton-pump inhibitor to those patients not on prior treatment were $85 (84-88) and $39 (38-42). CONCLUSIONS: In secondary prevention with aspirin-based antiplatelet treatment without routine proton-pump inhibitor use, the long-term costs of upper-GI bleeding at age ≥75 years are much higher than at younger age groups, and are at least 10-fold greater than the drug cost of routine co-prescription of proton-pump inhibitor.

Generating comparative evidence on new drugs and devices after approval.

Certain limitations of evidence available on drugs and devices at the time of market approval often persist in the post-marketing period. Often, post-marketing research landscape is fragmented. When regulatory agencies require pharmaceutical and device manufacturers to conduct studies in the post-marketing period, these studies might remain incomplete many years after approval. Even when completed, many post-marketing studies lack meaningful active comparators, have observational designs, and might not collect patient-relevant outcomes. Regulators, in collaboration with the industry and patients, ought to ensure that the key questions unanswered at the time of drug and device approval are resolved in a timely fashion during the post-marketing phase. We propose a set of seven key guiding principles that we believe will provide the necessary incentives for pharmaceutical and device manufacturers to generate comparative data in the post-marketing period. First, regulators (for drugs and devices), notified bodies (for devices in Europe), health technology assessment organisations, and payers should develop customised evidence generation plans, ensuring that future post-approval studies address any limitations of the data available at the time of market entry impacting the benefit-risk profiles of drugs and devices. Second, post-marketing studies should be designed hierarchically: priority should be given to efforts aimed at evaluating a product's net clinical benefit in randomised trials compared with current known effective therapy, whenever possible, to address common decisional dilemmas. Third, post-marketing studies should incorporate active comparators as appropriate. Fourth, use of non-randomised studies for the evaluation of clinical benefit in the post-marketing period should be limited to instances when the magnitude of effect is deemed to be large or when it is possible to reasonably infer the comparative benefits or risks in settings, in which doing a randomised trial is not feasible. Fifth, efficiency of randomised trials should be improved by streamlining patient recruitment and data collection through innovative design elements. Sixth, governments should directly support and facilitate the production of comparative post-marketing data by investing in the development of collaborative research networks and data systems that reduce the complexity, cost, and waste of rigorous post-marketing research efforts. Last, financial incentives and penalties should be developed or more actively reinforced.

The case for statin use to reduce perioperative adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events.

Ischaemic heart disease and stroke are the leading causes of death worldwide at 119 per 100,000 and 85 per 100,000 population. For the USA, heart disease is leading cause of death at 165 per 100,000 population. In developed countries, strokes and acute myocardial infarction in the general population have fallen from smoking reduction, lifestyle modifications and therapeutic interventions including statins. In a population-based stroke study in the UK involving primary care practices, of in-hospital strokes 90% were ischaemic, and 37% occurred within 1 week of an operation. Approximately 50% of the patients were not on a statin. In the UK, there is a national screening initiative for the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) offered to people aged 40-74 yr old. The QRISK3 tool calculates the risk of developing heart disease or stroke over 10 yr, from which recommendations are made on interventions for the prevention of ASCVD up to age 84 yr, with similar screening and assessment tools in Europe and the US. If the QRISK3 score tool for calculating cardiovascular risk is considered sufficiently robust for population screening in primary care, should anaesthetists not use the same screening for secondary care? We present a case for statin use over the perioperative period, to reduce early vascular adverse events based on statins' early pleiotropic actions, using the primary care QRISK tool for screening of ASCVD risk.

APOE-ε4 Genotype and Dementia Before and After Transient Ischemic Attack and Stroke: Population-Based Cohort Study.

Background and Purpose- APOE-ε4 genotype is a risk factor for sporadic Alzheimer disease and reduced recovery from brain injury. Since data on APOE genotype and dementia associated with transient ischemic attack/stroke are sparse, we determined the associations in a longitudinal population-based cohort. Methods- All patients with transient ischemic attack or stroke (2002-2012) in a defined population of 92 728 OxVASC (Oxford Vascular Study) had follow-up to 5-years. Pre-event and incident postevent dementia were ascertained through direct patient assessment and follow-up, supplemented by review of hospital/primary care records. Associations between pre- and post-event dementia and APOE genotype (ε4/ε4-homozygous and ε4/ε3-heterozygous versus ε3/ε3) were examined using logistic regression and Cox regression models, respectively, adjusted for age, sex, education, cerebrovascular burden (stroke severity, prior stroke, white matter disease), diabetes mellitus, and dysphasia. Results- Among 1767 genotyped patients (mean/SD age, 73.0/13.0 years, 901 [51%] male, 602 [34%] transient ischemic attack), 1058 (59.9%) were APOE-ε3/ε3, 403 (22.8%) were ε4/ε3 and 30 (1.7%) were ε4-homozygous. Homozygosity was associated with both pre-event (adjusted odds ratio, 5.81 [95% CI, 1.93-17.48]; P=0.002) and postevent dementia (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.64 [95% CI, 1.90-7.00]; P<0.0001). Association with postevent dementia was maintained after further adjustment for baseline cognitive impairment (hazard ratio, 2.41 [95% CI, 1.19-4.89]; P=0.01). There were no associations overall between ε4/ε3 and pre-event dementia (adjusted odds ratio, 1.47 [95% CI, 0.88-2.45]; P=0.14) or postevent dementia (hazard ratio, 1.11 [95% CI, 0.84-1.48]; P=0.47). Conclusions- In patients with transient ischemic attack and stroke, APOE-ε4 homozygosity was associated with both pre- and post-event dementia. Associations were independent of cerebrovascular burden and may be mediated through increased neurodegenerative pathology or vulnerability to injury.

Vertebral artery stenting to prevent recurrent stroke in symptomatic vertebral artery stenosis: the VIST RCT.

BACKGROUND: Symptomatic vertebral artery (VA) stenosis has been associated with a markedly increased early risk of recurrent stroke. VA stenosis can be treated with stenting; however, there are few data from randomised controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of this treatment, and recent studies in intracranial stenosis have suggested that stenting may be associated with increased risk. OBJECTIVE: The Vertebral artery Ischaemia Stenting Trial (VIST) was established to compare the risks and benefits of vertebral angioplasty and stenting with best medical treatment (BMT) alone for recently symptomatic VA stenosis. DESIGN: VIST was a prospective, randomised, open, parallel, blinded end-point clinical trial. SETTING: The trial was performed in 14 hospitals in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Recruitment began on 23 October 2008 and follow-up ended on 1 March 2016, by which time every patient had been followed up for at least 1 year. Participants had to have symptomatic vertebral stenosis of at least 50% resulting from presumed atheromatous disease. Both patients and clinicians were aware of treatment allocation; however, an independent adjudication committee, masked to treatment allocation, assessed all primary and secondary end points. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomly assigned (1 : 1) to either vertebral angioplasty/stenting plus BMT (n = 91) or BMT alone (n = 88). A total of 182 patients were initially enrolled; however, three patients (two who withdrew after randomisation and one who did not attend after the initial randomisation visit) did not contribute any follow-up data and were excluded. None of these three patients had outcome events. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary end point was the occurrence of fatal or non-fatal stroke in any arterial territory during follow-up. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 3.5 (interquartile range 2.1-4.7) years. Of the 61 patients who were stented, 48 (78.7%) had extracranial stenosis and 13 (21.3%) had intracranial stenosis. No perioperative complications occurred with extracranial stenting; two strokes occurred during intracranial stenting. The primary end point occurred in five patients (including one fatal stroke) in the stent group and in 12 patients (including two fatal strokes) in the medical group (giving a hazard ratio of 0.40, 95% confidence interval 0.14 to 1.13; p = 0.08), with an absolute risk reduction of 25 strokes per 1000 person-years. LIMITATIONS: The study was underpowered because it failed to reach target recruitment. The high rate of non-confirmation of stenosis in the stented group of the trial was a second limitation. CONCLUSIONS: The trial found no difference in risk of the primary end point between the two groups. FUTURE: Post hoc analysis suggested that stenting could be associated with a reduced recurrent stroke risk in symptomatic VA and further studies are now required to confirm these findings, particularly in extracranial VA stenosis where complication rates with stenting were confirmed to be very low. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN95212240. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 41. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. In addition, funding for the pilot phase was provided by the Stroke Association.

About one-quarter of all strokes occur in the back of the brain, which is supplied by the vertebral and basilar arteries. An important cause of stroke is a narrowing, or stenosis, of these arteries. It is known that patients who have a minor stroke due to narrowing of a vertebral artery (VA) have a high risk of a further stroke: as much as 30% in the next year. Stenosis of the VA can be treated with stenting, in which a wire mesh is put into the narrowed artery and opens it up. Many operations to insert a vertebral stent have been carried out worldwide with good technical results; however, it is not known whether it is better to treat vertebral stenosis with stenting or only tablets. The Vertebral artery Ischaemia Stenting Trial was a randomised controlled trial comparing vertebral stenting and best medical treatment (BMT) with BMT alone in patients who had suffered a minor stroke due to vertebral stenosis. Ninety-one patients had stenting and 88 had BMT alone. Patients were followed for an average of 3.5 years. It was planned to enrol 540 patients to the trial, but recruitment was slower than expected and funding for the study was halted; therefore, recruitment was stopped at 181 patients. There was no difference in the rate of recurrent stroke between patients who had stenting and those who had BMT alone. There was some evidence that stenting might be associated with a reduced risk of recurrent stroke, but the difference was not significant. The trial was limited by the failure to recruit the anticipated sample size. The results tell us that stenting is a possible treatment for vertebral stenosis; however, further trials are required to determine whether or not it is more effective at preventing recurrent stroke than BMT alone.

Ordinal vs dichotomous analyses of modified Rankin Scale, 5-year outcome, and cost of stroke.

OBJECTIVE: To compare how 3 common representations (ordinal vs dichotomized as 0-1/2-6 or 0-2/3-6) of the modified Rankin Scale (mRS)-a commonly used trial outcome measure-relate to long-term outcomes, and quantify trial ineligibility rates based on premorbid mRS. METHODS: In consecutive patients with ischemic stroke in a population-based, prospective, cohort study (Oxford Vascular Study; 2002-2014), we related 3-month mRS to 1-year and 5-year disability and death (logistic regressions), and health/social care costs (generalized linear model), adjusted for age/sex, and compared goodness-of-fit values (C statistic, mean absolute error). We also calculated the proportion of patients in whom premorbid mRS score >1 or >2 would result in exclusion from trials using dichotomous analysis. RESULTS: Among 1,607 patients, the ordinal mRS was more strongly related to 5-year mortality than both the 0-1/2-6 and 0-2/3-6 dichotomies (all p < 0.0001). Results were similar for 5-year disability, and 5-year care costs were also best captured by the ordinal model (change in mean absolute error vs age/sex: -$3,059 for ordinal, -$2,805 for 0-2/3-6, -$1,647 for 0-1/2-6). Two hundred forty-four (17.1%) 3-month survivors had premorbid mRS score >2 and 434 (30.5%) had mRS score >1; both proportions increased with female sex, socioeconomic deprivation, and age (all p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The ordinal form of the 3-month mRS relates better to long-term outcomes and costs in survivors of ischemic stroke than either dichotomy. This finding favors using ordinal approaches in trials analyzing the mRS. Exclusion of patients with higher premorbid disability by use of dichotomous primary outcomes will also result in unrepresentative samples.

Hospital and Institutionalisation Care Costs after Limb and Visceral Ischaemia Benchmarked Against Stroke: Long-Term Results of a Population Based Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE/BACKGROUND: There are few published data on the acute care or long-term costs after acute/critical limb or visceral ischaemia (ACLVI) events. Using data from patients with acute events in a population based incidence study (Oxford Vascular Study), the present study aimed to determine the long-term costs after an ACLVI event. METHODS: All patients with first ever incident ACLVI from 2002 to 2012 were included. Analysis was based on follow up until January 2017, with all patients having full 5 year follow up. Multivariate regressions were used to assess baseline and subsequent predictors of total 5 year hospital care costs. Overall costs after an ACLVI event were benchmarked against those after stroke in the same population, during the same period. RESULTS: Among 351 patients with an ACLVI event, mean 5 year total care costs were €35,211 (SD 50,500), of which €6443 (18%) were due to long-term institutionalisation. Costs differed by type of event (acute visceral ischaemia €16,476; acute limb ischaemia €24,437; critical limb ischaemia €46,281; p < 0.001). Results of the multivariate analyses showed that patients with diabetes and those undergoing above knee amputations incurred additional costs of €11,804 (p = 0.014) and €25,692 (p < 0.001), respectively. Five year hospital care costs after an ACLVI event were significantly higher than after stroke (€28,768 vs. €22,623; p = 0.004), but similar after including long-term costs of institutionalisation (€35,211 vs. €35,391; p = 0.957). CONCLUSION: Long-term care costs after an ACLVI event are considerable, especially after critical limb ischaemia. Hospital care costs were significantly higher than for stroke over the long term, and were similar after inclusion of costs of institutionalisation.

When has service provision for transient ischaemic attack improved enough? A discrete event simulation economic modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine the impact of transient ischaemic attack (TIA) service modification in two hospitals on costs and clinical outcomes. DESIGN: Discrete event simulation model using data from routine electronic health records from 2011. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with suspected TIA were followed from symptom onset to presentation, referral to specialist clinics, treatment and subsequent stroke. INTERVENTIONS: Included existing versus previous (less same day clinics) and hypothetical service reconfiguration (7-day service with less availability of clinics per day). OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome of the model was the prevalence of major stroke after TIA. Secondary outcomes included service costs (including those of treating subsequent stroke) and time to treatment and attainment of national targets for service provision (proportion of high-risk patients (according to ABCD2 score) seen within 24 hours). RESULTS: The estimated costs of previous service provision for 490 patients (aged 74±12 years, 48.9% female and 23.6% high risk) per year at each site were £340 000 and £368 000, respectively. This resulted in 31% of high-risk patients seen within 24 hours of referral (47/150) with a median time from referral to clinic attendance/treatment of 1.15 days (IQR 0.93-2.88). The costs associated with the existing and hypothetical services decreased by £5000 at one site and increased £21 000 at the other site. Target attainment was improved to 79% (118/150). However, the median time to clinic attendance was only reduced to 0.85 days (IQR 0.17-0.99) and thus no appreciable impact on the modelled incidence of major stroke was observed (10.7 per year, 99% CI 10.5 to 10.9 (previous service) vs 10.6 per year, 99% CI 10.4 to 10.8 (existing service)). CONCLUSIONS: Reconfiguration of services for TIA is effective at increasing target attainment, but in services which are already working efficiently (treating patients within 1-2 days), it has little estimated impact on clinical outcomes and increased investment may not be worthwhile.

White Matter Imaging Correlates of Early Cognitive Impairment Detected by the Montreal Cognitive Assessment After Transient Ischemic Attack and Minor Stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Among screening tools for cognitive impairment in large cohorts, the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) seems to be more sensitive to early cognitive impairment than the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), particularly after transient ischemic attack or minor stroke. We reasoned that if MoCA-detected early cognitive impairment is pathologically significant, then it should be specifically associated with the presence of white matter hyperintensities (WMHs) and reduced fractional anisotropy (FA) on magnetic resonance imaging. METHODS: Consecutive eligible patients with transient ischemic attack or minor stroke (Oxford Vascular Study) underwent magnetic resonance imaging and cognitive assessment. We correlated MoCA and MMSE scores with WMH and FA, then specifically studied patients with low MoCA and normal MMSE. RESULTS: Among 400 patients, MoCA and MMSE scores were significantly correlated (all P<0.001) with WMH volumes (rMoCA=-0.336; rMMSE=-0.297) and FA (rMoCA=0.409; rMMSE=0.369) and-on voxel-wise analyses-with WMH in frontal white matter and reduced FA in almost all white matter tracts. However, only the MoCA was independently correlated with WMH volumes (r=-0.183; P<0.001), average FA values (r=0.218; P<0.001), and voxel-wise reduced FA in anterior tracts after controlling for the MMSE. In addition, patients with low MoCA but normal MMSE (n=57) had higher WMH volumes (t=3.1; P=0.002), lower average FA (t=-4.0; P<0.001), and lower voxel-wise FA in almost all white matter tracts than those with normal MoCA and MMSE (n=238). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with transient ischemic attack or minor stroke, early cognitive impairment detected with the MoCA but not with the MMSE was independently associated with white matter damage on magnetic resonance imaging, particularly reduced FA.

Total small vessel disease score and risk of recurrent stroke: Validation in 2 large cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: In patients with TIA and ischemic stroke, we validated the total small vessel disease (SVD) score by determining its prognostic value for recurrent stroke. METHODS: Two independent prospective studies were conducted, one comprising predominantly Caucasian patients with TIA/ischemic stroke (Oxford Vascular Study [OXVASC]) and one predominantly Chinese patients with ischemic stroke (University of Hong Kong [HKU]). Cerebral MRI was performed and assessed for lacunes, microbleeds, white matter hyperintensities (WMH), and perivascular spaces (PVS). Predictive value of total SVD score for risk of recurrent stroke was determined and potential refinements considered. RESULTS: In 2,002 patients with TIA/ischemic stroke (OXVASC n = 1,028, HKU n = 974, 6,924 patient-years follow-up), a higher score was associated with an increased risk of recurrent ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] per unit increase: 1.32, 1.16-1.51, p < 0.0001; c statistic 0.61, 0.56-0.65, p < 0.0001) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) (HR 1.54, 1.11-2.13, p = 0.009; c statistic 0.65, 0.54-0.76, p = 0.006). A higher score predicted recurrent stroke in SVD and non-SVD TIA/ischemic stroke subtypes (c statistic 0.67, 0.59-0.74, p < 0.0001 and 0.60, 0.55-0.65, p < 0.0001). Including burden of microbleeds and WMH and adjusting the cutoff of basal ganglia PVS potentially improved predictive power for ICH (c statistic 0.71, 0.60-0.81, phet = 0.45), but not for recurrent ischemic stroke (c statistic 0.60, 0.56-0.65, phet = 0.76) on internal validation. CONCLUSIONS: The total SVD score has predictive value for recurrent stroke after TIA/ischemic stroke. Prediction of recurrence in patients with nonlacunar events highlights the potential role of SVD in wider stroke etiology.

Biases in detection of apparent "weekend effect" on outcome with administrative coding data: population based study of stroke.

OBJECTIVES:  To determine the accuracy of coding of admissions for stroke on weekdays versus weekends and any impact on apparent outcome. DESIGN:  Prospective population based stroke incidence study and a scoping review of previous studies of weekend effects in stroke. SETTING:  Primary and secondary care of all individuals registered with nine general practices in Oxfordshire, United Kingdom (OXVASC, the Oxford Vascular Study). PARTICIPANTS:  All patients with clinically confirmed acute stroke in OXVASC identified with multiple overlapping methods of ascertainment in 2002-14 versus all acute stroke admissions identified by hospital diagnostic and mortality coding alone during the same period. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES:  Accuracy of administrative coding data for all patients with confirmed stroke admitted to hospital in OXVASC. Difference between rates of "false positive" or "false negative" coding for weekday and weekend admissions. Impact of inaccurate coding on apparent case fatality at 30 days in weekday versus weekend admissions. Weekend effects on outcomes in patients with confirmed stroke admitted to hospital in OXVASC and impacts of other potential biases compared with those in the scoping review. RESULTS:  Among 92 728 study population, 2373 episodes of acute stroke were ascertained in OXVASC, of which 826 (34.8%) mainly minor events were managed without hospital admission, 60 (2.5%) occurred out of the area or abroad, and 195 (8.2%) occurred in hospital during an admission for a different reason. Of 1292 local hospital admissions for acute stroke, 973 (75.3%) were correctly identified by administrative coding. There was no bias in distribution of weekend versus weekday admission of the 319 strokes missed by coding. Of 1693 admissions for stroke identified by coding, 1055 (62.3%) were confirmed to be acute strokes after case adjudication. Among the 638 false positive coded cases, patients were more likely to be admitted on weekdays than at weekends (536 (41.0%) v 102 (26.5%); P<0.001), partly because of weekday elective admissions after previous stroke being miscoded as new stroke episodes (267 (49.8%) v 26 (25.5%); P<0.001). The 30 day case fatality after these elective admissions was lower than after confirmed acute stroke admissions (11 (3.8%) v 233 (22.1%); P<0.001). Consequently, relative 30 day case fatality for weekend versus weekday admissions differed (P<0.001) between correctly coded acute stroke admissions and false positive coding cases. Results were consistent when only the 1327 emergency cases identified by "admission method" from coding were included, with more false positive cases with low case fatality (35 (14.7%)) being included for weekday versus weekend admissions (190 (19.5%) v 48 (13.7%), P<0.02). Among all acute stroke admissions in OXVASC, there was no imbalance in baseline stroke severity for weekends versus weekdays and no difference in case fatality at 30 days (adjusted odds ratio 0.85, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 1.15; P=0.30) or any adverse "weekend effect" on modified Rankin score at 30 days (0.78, 0.61 to 0.99; P=0.04) or one year (0.76, 0.59 to 0.98; P=0.03) among incident strokes. CONCLUSION:  Retrospective studies of UK administrative hospital coding data to determine "weekend effects" on outcome in acute medical conditions, such as stroke, can be undermined by inaccurate coding, which can introduce biases that cannot be reliably dealt with by adjustment for case mix.

Cost-utility analysis of stenting versus endarterectomy in the International Carotid Stenting Study.

BACKGROUND: The International Carotid Stenting Study was a multicenter randomized trial in which patients with symptomatic carotid artery stenosis were randomly allocated to treatment by carotid stenting or endarterectomy. Economic evidence comparing these treatments is limited and inconsistent. AIMS: We compared the cost-effectiveness of stenting versus endarterectomy using International Carotid Stenting Study data. METHODS: We performed a cost-utility analysis estimating mean costs and quality-adjusted life years per patient for both treatments over a five-year time horizon based on resource use data and utility values collected in the trial. Costs of managing stroke events were estimated using individual patient data from a UK population-based study (Oxford Vascular Study). RESULTS: Mean costs per patient (95% CI) were US$10,477 ($9669 to $11,285) in the stenting group (N = 853) and $9669 ($8835 to $10,504) in the endarterectomy group (N = 857). There were no differences in mean quality-adjusted life years per patient (3.247 (3.160 to 3.333) and 3.228 (3.150 to 3.306), respectively). There were no differences in adjusted costs between groups (mean incremental costs for stenting versus endarterectomy $736 (95% CI -$353 to $1826)) or adjusted outcomes (mean quality-adjusted life years gained -0.010 (95% CI -0.117 to 0.097)). The incremental net monetary benefit for stenting versus endarterectomy was not significantly different from zero at the maximum willingness to pay for a quality-adjusted life year commonly used in the UK. Sensitivity analyses showed little uncertainty in these findings. CONCLUSIONS: Economic considerations should not affect whether patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis undergo stenting or endarterectomy.

Population-Based Study of Incidence of Acute Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms With Projected Impact of Screening Strategy.

BACKGROUND: Current abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening in men age 65 might have limited impact on overall AAA death rates if incidence is moving to older ages. Up-to-date population-based studies of age-specific incidence, risk factors, and outcome of acute AAA are needed to inform screening policy. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a prospective, population-based study (Oxfordshire, UK, 2002-2014), the incidence and outcome of acute AAA events were determined. Based on population projections and current incidence trends, the impact of screening strategies in the UK was estimated. Over the 12-year period, 103 incident acute AAA events occurred in the study population of 92 728. Incidence/100 000/year was 55 in men ages 65 to 74 years, but increased to 112 at 75 to 85 and 298 at ≥85, with 66.0% of all events occurring at age ≥75 years. Incidence at ages 65 to 74 was highest in male smokers (274), with 96.4% of events in men <75 years occurring in ever-smokers. Extrapolating rates to the UK population, using trial evidence of screening efficacy, the current UK screening program would prevent 5.6% of aneurysm-related deaths (315 200 scans/year: 1426/death prevented, 121/year-of-life saved). Screening only male smokers age 65 and then all men at age 75 would prevent 21.1% of deaths (247 900 scans/year; 297/death prevented, 34/year-of-life saved). By 2030, 91.0% of deaths will occur at age ≥75, 61.6% at ≥85, and 28.6% in women. CONCLUSIONS: Given that two thirds of acute AAA occurred at ≥75 years of age, screening older age groups should be considered. Screening nonsmokers at age 65 is likely to have very little impact on AAA event rates.

Validation of the Montreal cognitive assessment versus mini-mental state examination against hypertension and hypertensive arteriopathy after transient ischemic attack or minor stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Lack of reduced cognitive impairment with blood pressure (BP) lowering in trials may reflect use of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), which is insensitive to mild cognitive impairment after cerebrovascular events compared with the Montreal Cognitive Assessment. We determined relationships between impairment on MMSE versus Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) with the major physiological determinant of vascular cognitive impairment: hypertension and hypertensive arteriopathy. METHODS: Cognitive impairment in consecutive patients 6 months after transient ischemic attack or minor stroke was defined as significant, mild, or none (MMSE<23, 23-26, ≥27; MoCA<20, 20-24, ≥25) and related to 20 premorbid systolic BP readings, home BP measurement (3 measurements, 3×daily for 1 month), and hypertensive arteriopathy (creatinine, stroke versus transient ischemic attack, leukoaraiosis) by ordinal regression. RESULTS: Of 463 patients, 45% versus 28% had at least mild cognitive impairment on the MoCA versus MMSE (P<0.001). Hypertensive arteriopathy was more strongly associated with cognitive impairment on the MoCA than MMSE (creatinine: odds ratio=3.99; 95% confidence interval, 2.06-7.73 versus 2.16, 1.08-4.33; event: 1.53, 1.06-2.19 versus 1.23, 0.81-1.85; leukoaraiosis: 2.09, 1.42-3.06 versus 1.34, 0.87-2.07). Premorbid and home BP measurement systolic BP were more strongly associated with impairment on vascular subdomains of the MoCA than MMSE (odds ratio/10 mm Hg: visuospatial 1.29 versus 1.05; attention 1.18 versus 1.07; language 1.22 versus 0.91; naming 1.07 versus 0.86). CONCLUSIONS: The stronger relationship between impairment on the MoCA with hypertensive arteriopathy, independent of age, indicates a greater sensitivity for vascular-origin cognitive impairment. Use of MoCA should improve sensitivity for cognitive impairment and treatment effects in future studies.

Age-specific incidence, outcome, cost, and projected future burden of atrial fibrillation-related embolic vascular events: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is >10% at age ≥80 years, but the impact of population aging on rates of AF-related ischemic events is uncertain. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied age-specific incidence, outcome, and cost of all AF-related incident strokes and systemic emboli from 2002 to 2012 in the Oxford Vascular Study (OXVASC). We determined time trends in incidence of AF-related stroke in comparison with a sister study in 1981 to 1986, extrapolated numbers to the UK population and projected future numbers. Of 3096 acute cerebral or peripheral vascular events in the 92 728 study population, 383 incident ischemic strokes and 71 systemic emboli were related to AF, of which 272 (59.9%) occurred at ≥80 years. Of 597 fatal or disabling incident ischemic strokes, 262 (43.9%) were AF-related. Numbers of AF-related ischemic strokes at age ≥80 years increased nearly 3-fold from 1981-1986 to 2002-2012 (extrapolated to the United Kingdom: 6621 to 18 176 per year), due partly to increased age-specific incidence (relative rate 1.52, 95% confidence interval 1.31-1.77, P=0.001), with potentially preventable AF-related events at age ≥80 years costing the United Kingdom £374 million per year. At current incidence rates, numbers of AF-related embolic events at age ≥80 years will treble again by 2050 (72 974/year), with 83.5% of all events occurring in this age group. CONCLUSIONS: Numbers of AF-related incident ischemic strokes at age ≥80 years have trebled over the last 25 years, despite the introduction of anticoagulants, and are projected to treble again by 2050, along with the numbers of systemic emboli. Improved prevention in older people with AF should be a major public health priority.

Hospitalization resource use and costs before and after TIA and stroke: results from a population-based cohort study (OXVASC).

OBJECTIVES: High hospitalization rates, prolonged length of stay, and increased risks of subsequent events mean a steep increase in health care usage after stroke. No study, however, has examined to what extent increased costs after transient ischemic attack (TIA) or stroke are due to hospitalizations for the initial event, recurrent events, and/or nonvascular hospitalizations, and how costs compare with the year prior to the event. METHODS: We studied patients in a population-based cohort study (Oxford Vascular Study) in the United Kingdom from 2003 to 2007. Hospitalization and cost details were obtained from patients' individualized Hospital Episode Statistics records. RESULTS: A total of 295 incident TIA and 439 incident stroke patients were included. For patients with stroke, average costs increased from £1437 in the year pre-event to £6629 in the year post-event (P<0.0001). Sixty-four percent (£4224) of poststroke costs were due to hospitalizations linked to the index stroke, more than 30% of which were given nonvascular primary diagnoses on Hospital Episode Statistics, and £653 (10%) were due to hospitalizations linked to subsequent vascular events. For patients with TIA, costs increased from £876 1 year before the event to £2410 in the year post-event (P<0.0001). Patients with TIA incurred nonsignificantly higher costs due to hospitalizations linked to subsequent vascular events (£774) than for hospitalizations linked to the index TIA (£720). CONCLUSIONS: Hospital costs increased after TIA or stroke, primarily because of increased initial cerebrovascular hospitalizations. The finding that costs due to nonvascular diagnoses also increased after TIA or stroke appears, in part, to be explained by the miscoding of TIA/stroke-related hospitalizations in electronic information systems.