Global, regional, and national burden and quality of care of multiple myeloma, 1990-2019.

Background: Multiple myeloma (MM) is the second most common haematologic malignancy, presenting a great disease burden on the general population; however, the quality of care of MM is overlooked. We therefore assessed gains and disparity in quality of care worldwide from 1990 to 2019 based on a novel summary indicator - the quality of care index (QCI) - and examined its potential for improvement. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 data set, we calculated the QCI of MM for 195 countries and territories. We used the principal component analysis to extract the first principal component of ratios with the combinations of mortality to incidence, prevalence to incidence, disability-adjusted life years to prevalence, and years of life lost to years lived with disability as QCI. We also conducted a series of descriptive and comparative analyses of QCI disparities with age, gender, period, geographies, and sociodemographic development, and compared the QCI among countries with similar socio-demographic index (SDI) through frontier analysis. Results: The age-standardised rates of MM were 1.92 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 1.68, 2.12) in incidence and 1.42 (95% UI = 1.24, 1.52) in deaths per 100 000 population in 2019, and were predicted to increase in the future. The global age-standardised QCI increased from 51.31 in 1990 to 64.28 in 2019. In 2019, New Zealand had the highest QCI at 99.29 and the Central African Republic had the lowest QCI at 10.74. The gender disparity of QCI was reduced over the years, with the largest being observed in the sub-Saharan region. Regarding age, QCI maintained a decreasing trend in patients aged >60 in SDI quintiles. Generally, QCI improved with the SDI increase. Results of frontier analysis suggested that there is a potential to improve the quality of care across all levels of development spectrum. Conclusions: Quality of care of MM improved during the past three decades, yet disparities in MM care remain across different countries, age groups, and genders. It is crucial to establish local objectives aimed at enhancing MM care and closing the gap in health care inequality.

Global health economics: The Equitable Impact Sensitive Tool (EQUIST) - development, validation, implementation and evaluation of impact (2011 to 2022).

Background: The Equitable Impact Sensitive Tool (EQUIST) was developed to address the limitations of the traditional cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) in global health, which often overlooked equity considerations. Its primary aim was to create more effective and efficient health systems by explicitly incorporating equity as a key driver in health policy decisions. This was done in response to the recognition that, while CEA helped reduce mortality rates through interventions like childhood vaccinations, it was insufficient in addressing growing inequalities in health, especially in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods: The development of EQUIST involved a multi-stage process which began in 2011 with the recognition of the need for a more nuanced approach than CEA alone. This led to a proposal for creating a tool that balanced cost-effectiveness with equity. The conceptual framework, developed between March and May 2012, included assessments of intervention efficiency by equity strata, effectiveness, impact, and cost-effectiveness. Key to EQUIST's development was its integration with other data science platforms, notably the Lives Saved Tool and the Marginal Budgeting for Bottlenecks tool, allowing EQUIST to draw on comprehensive data sets and thus enabling a more detailed analysis of health interventions' impacts across different socio-economic strata. Results: EQUIST was validated in 2012 through applications in five representative countries, demonstrating its ability to identify more equitable and cost-effective health interventions which targeted vulnerable populations, leading to more lives saved compared to traditional methods. It was then used to develop investment cases for the Global Financing Facility, resulting in significant funding being made available for maternal and child health programmes. Consequently, EQUIST directly influenced the development of national health policies and resource allocations in over 26 African countries. Conclusions: EQUIST has proven to be a valuable tool in developing health policies that are both cost-effective and equitable. In the future, it will be further integrated with other tools and expanded in scope to address broader health issues, including adolescent health and human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome programme planning. Overall, EQUIST represents a paradigm shift in global health economics, emphasising the importance of equity alongside cost-effectiveness in health policy decisions. Its development and implementation have had a tangible impact on health outcomes, particularly in LMICs, where it has been instrumental in reducing maternal and child mortality while addressing health inequities.

National and subnational incidence, mortality and associated factors of colorectal cancer in China: A systematic analysis and modelling study.

Background: Due to their known variation by geography and economic development, we aimed to evaluate the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer (CRC) in China over the past decades and identify factors associated with CRC among the Chinese population to provide targeted information on disease prevention. Methods: We conducted a systemic review and meta-analysis of epidemiolocal studies on the incidence, mortality, and associated factors of CRC among the Chinese population, extracting and synthesising data from eligible studies retrieved from seven global and Chinese databases. We pooled age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) and mortality rates (ASMRs) for each province, subregion, and the whole of China, and applied a joinpoint regression model and annual per cent changes (APCs) to estimate the trends of CRC incidence and mortality. We conducted random-effects meta-analyses to assess the effect estimates of identified associated risk factors. Results: We included 493 articles; 271 provided data on CRC incidence or mortality, and 222 on associated risk factors. Overall, the ASIR of CRC in China increased from 2.75 to 19.39 (per 100 000 person-years) between 1972 and 2019 with a slowed-down growth rate (APC1 = 5.75, APC2 = 0.42), while the ASMR of CRC decreased from 12.00 to 7.95 (per 100 000 person-years) between 1974 and 2020 with a slight downward trend (APC = -0.89). We analysed 62 risk factors with synthesized data; 16 belonging to the categories of anthropometrics factors, lifestyle factors, dietary factors, personal histories and mental health conditions were graded to be associated with CRC risk among the Chinese population in the meta-analysis limited to the high-quality studies. Conclusions: We found substantial variation of CRC burden across regions and provinces of China and identified several associated risk factors for CRC, which could help to guide the formulation of targeted disease prevention and control strategies. Registration: PROSPERO: CRD42022346558.

Ethnic inequalities in positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, infection prognosis, COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths: analysis of 2 years of a record linked national cohort study in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to estimate ethnic inequalities in risk for positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths over time in Scotland. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study where the 2011 Scottish Census was linked to health records. We included all individuals ≥ 16 years living in Scotland on 1 March 2020. The study period was from 1 March 2020 to 17 April 2022. Self-reported ethnic group was taken from the census and Cox proportional hazard models estimated HRs for positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, hospitalisations and deaths, adjusted for age, sex and health board. We also conducted separate analyses for each of the four waves of COVID-19 to assess changes in risk over time. FINDINGS: Of the 4 358 339 individuals analysed, 1 093 234 positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, 37 437 hospitalisations and 14 158 deaths occurred. The risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation or death among ethnic minority groups was often higher for White Gypsy/Traveller (HR 2.21, 95% CI (1.61 to 3.06)) and Pakistani 2.09 (1.90 to 2.29) groups compared with the white Scottish group. The risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation or death following confirmed positive SARS-CoV-2 test was particularly higher for White Gypsy/Traveller 2.55 (1.81-3.58), Pakistani 1.75 (1.59-1.73) and African 1.61 (1.28-2.03) individuals relative to white Scottish individuals. However, the risk of COVID-19-related death following hospitalisation did not differ. The risk of COVID-19 outcomes for ethnic minority groups was higher in the first three waves compared with the fourth wave. INTERPRETATION: Most ethnic minority groups were at increased risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes in Scotland, especially White Gypsy/Traveller and Pakistani groups. Ethnic inequalities persisted following community infection but not following hospitalisation, suggesting differences in hospital treatment did not substantially contribute to ethnic inequalities.

The global prevalence of and factors associated with Helicobacter pylori infection in children: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Synthesised data on the prevalence of, and factors associated with, paediatric Helicobacter pylori infection at the global level remain scarce. We aimed to estimate the global prevalence of H pylori infection and its associated factors in children and adolescents. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, MEDLINE, and Scopus for observational population-based studies published between database inception and Oct 25, 2021, without language or geographical restrictions. We included studies that reported the prevalence of H pylori infection in children aged 18 years or younger. Records were screened and data were extracted using a standardised extraction form. We estimated the worldwide prevalence of H pylori infection in children (our main outcome) using multilevel mixed-effects meta-regression and then stratified prevalence by diagnostic method (serology vs urea breath tests or stool antigen tests). We analysed the significance of associated factors using a random-effects meta-analysis. This study is registered in PROSPERO, CRD42020209717. FINDINGS: We identified 3181 records, of which 198 articles with 632 data points from 152 650 children were included. The overall global prevalence of H pylori infection in children was 32·3% (95% CI 27·3-37·8), which varied by diagnostic test (28·6% [23·0-35·0] for serology vs 35·9% [29·2-43·2] for urea breath tests or stool antigen tests). Regardless of diagnostic test, the prevalence of H pylori infection was significantly higher in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries (43·2% [36·5-50·2] vs 21·7% [16·9-27·4]; p<0·0001) and in older children than in younger children (41·6% [35·6-47·8] in 13-18-year-olds vs 33·9% [28·6-39·7] in 7-12-year-olds vs 26·0% [21·4-31·0] in 0-6-year-olds; p<0·0001). Paediatric H pylori infection was significantly associated with lower economic status (odds ratio [OR] 1·63 [95% CI 1·46-1·82]), more siblings or children (1·84 [1·44-2·36]), room sharing (1·89 [1·49-2·40]), no access to a sewage system (1·60 [1·22-2·10]), having a mother infected with H pylori (3·31 [2·21-4·98]), having a sibling or siblings infected with H pylori (3·33 [1·53-7·26]), drinking unboiled or non-treated water (1·52 [1·32-1·76]), and older age (OR per year 1·27 [1·15-1·40]). INTERPRETATION: H pylori infection is still highly prevalent in children and adolescents globally. Our findings can help to guide further research and the development and implementation of preventive and therapeutic measures to reduce H pylori infection in children. FUNDING: None.

Systematic review estimating the burden of dementia in the WHO Southeast Asia Region using Bayesian and frequentist approaches.

BACKGROUND: Rapid increase in life expectancy in low- and middle-income countries including the World Health Organization's Southeast Asia Region (SEAR) has resulted in an increase in the global burden of dementia, which is expected to become a leading cause of morbidity. Accurate burden estimates are key for informing policy and planning. Given the paucity of data, estimates were developed using both a Bayesian methodology and as well as a traditional frequentist approach to gain better insights into methodological approaches for disease burden estimates. METHODS: Seven databases were searched for studies published between 2010-2018 regarding dementia prevalence in SEAR, generating 8 relevant articles. A random-effects model (REM) and a Bayesian normal-normal hierarchical model (NNHM) were used to obtain the pooled prevalence estimate of dementia for people aged 60 and above in SEAR. The latter model was also developed to estimate age-specific dementia prevalence. Using UN population estimates for SEAR, total and age-specific projections of the burden of dementia in 2015, 2020 and 2030 were calculated. RESULTS: The prevalence of dementia in SEAR was found to be 3% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2-6%) in those above age 60 based on REM, and 3.1% (95% credible interval = 1.5-5.0%) based on the NNHM. The estimated prevalence varies with age, increasing from 1.6% (95% credible interval = 0.8-2.5%) in people aged 60-69 to 12.4% (95% credible interval = 5.6-20%) in people above the age of 80. The risk of developing dementia increased exponentially with age. The number of people living with dementia in SEAR in 2015 was estimated at 5.51 million (95% credible interval = 2.66-8.82), with projections of 6.66 million (95% credible interval = 3.21-10.7) in 2020 and 9.6 million (95% credible interval = 4.62-15.36) in 2030. CONCLUSION: The burden of dementia in SEAR is substantial and will continue to increase rapidly by 2030. The lack of research focusing on dementia in SEAR points to a significant under-recognition of this disease. The projected rise in dementia cases in the future should prompt urgent governmental response to address this growing public health issue. We also argue that given the overall paucity of data for the region, the Bayesian approach offers a promising methodology for improved estimates of disease prevalence and burden and should continue to be explored.

The disease burden of childhood asthma in China: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: In China, childhood asthma prevalence showed a remarkable increase in the past decades. An updated epidemiological assessment of childhood asthma in China with a focus on prevalence and time trends is required. METHODS: We systematically searched three main Chinese databases and one English database to identify epidemiological studies of the prevalence of childhood asthma in China. Asthma cases were defined according to one of the five sets of Chinese diagnostic criteria which were established by the Children Respiratory Disease Group. We estimated age- and sex-specific prevalence of asthma using a multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression. We presented the time trends of asthma prevalence between 1990 and 2020 by age, sex and setting (urban vs rural), and also estimated the number of children affected by asthma in 2010. RESULTS: In 1990, the prevalence of asthma ranged from 0.13% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.10-0.20) in rural girls aged 14 years to 1.34% (95% CI = 1.11-1.67) in urban boys aged five years. In 2010, the overall prevalence of asthma in Chinese children aged 0-14 years was 2.12% (95% CI = 1.83-2.51), corresponding to 5.16 million children living with asthma. Children aged 5-9 years were with the highest prevalence estimate of 2.65% (95% CI = 2.31-3.12) and those aged 10-14 years were with the lowest (1.48%, 95% CI = 1.26-1.78). In 2020, it is expected that this disparity will continue, with the prevalence of asthma being at the lowest level among rural girls aged 14 years (1.11%, 95% CI = 0.82-1.54) and at the highest level among urban boys aged four years (10.27%, 95% CI = 8.61-12.18). Over the 30 years (1990-2020), the prevalence of asthma in children aged 0-14 years has increased in both sexes and settings, which was consistently the lowest in rural girls and the highest in urban boys. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that childhood asthma has been increasingly prevalent in China. Asthma is more frequent in boys and in rural areas. The detailed and systematic estimates of asthma prevalence in this study constitute the best currently available basis for policymaking, planning, and allocation of health and welfare resources related to the burden of childhood asthma in China.

Analysis of public engagement with ten major global health topics on a social network profile and a newspaper website.

BACKGROUND: Efforts in global health and development have broad political support and substantial financial commitment from most governments. However, this support could be greater if global health issues featured more prominently in the public debate. It has proven quite difficult to make global health issues attractive for viewing and engaging with, as compared to other forms of entertainment or public debates in the media. METHODS: Within the Massive Open Online Course "Survival: The Story of Global Health", we created 10 educational videos on major global health topics. Between August 1 and September 30, 2017, we posted each episode with a brief background text on the Facebook profile of the narrator, who had an average of 450 friends and further 800 followers throughout the period of study. We studied the interaction of Facebook friends and followers with each posted video, tracing the number of their "likes", "shares" and "comments". Moreover, a popular Croatian online newspaper portal with about 250 000 daily viewers shared three of these stories after they were posted on Facebook and views, shares and comments were monitored. We recorded the effect on the number of YouTube views of the featured videos. RESULTS: The 10 posts received between 65 and 274 "likes" on the Facebook profile and between 2 and 124 shares, receiving between 0 and 17 comments. The three episodes that were shared by the online newspaper portal were further shared between 164 and 2820 times, receiving between 8 and 111 comments from the general public. The effect of these two promotion channels on YouTube viewership resulted in between 107 and 9784 views of the 10 featured videos, with the number of "likes" received on YouTube ranging between 0 and 43. The video that raised the most attention and shares was the one on the history of pandemics, which also had the highest number of shares on YouTube (n=69), followed by the video on human evolution (n = 14). Topics of non-communicable diseases, ageing and dying, and the future of humanity were also popular, while the topics more specific to global health raised less interest - ie, maternal and child mortality, major infectious diseases, international organizations, inequality and equity, and the UN Millennium Development Goals. CONCLUSION: Our study showed that the interest in "core" global health topics was, as a rule, lower than in the topics which have a more general appeal - such as pandemic threat, human origins, ageing and dying. If we aim to increase public interest in global health topics, a feasible strategy would be to adjust the language and presentation used to be of more appeal to popular culture. Linking promotional materials to other popular topics that are dominating the public debate or capturing their interest could prove to be a successful strategy to achieve this.

National, regional, and state-level burden of Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae type b disease in children in India: modelled estimates for 2000-15.

BACKGROUND: India accounts for a disproportionate burden of global childhood illnesses. To inform policies and measure progress towards achieving child health targets, we estimated the annual national and state-specific childhood mortality and morbidity attributable to Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) between 2000 and 2015. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used vaccine clinical trial data to estimate the proportion of pneumonia deaths attributable to pneumococcus and Hib. The proportion of meningitis deaths attributable to each pathogen was derived from pathogen-specific meningitis case fatality and bacterial meningitis case data from surveillance studies. We applied these proportions to modelled state-specific pneumonia and meningitis deaths from 2000 to 2015 prepared by the WHO Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation collaboration (WHO/MCEE) on the basis of verbal autopsy studies from India. The burden of clinical and severe pneumonia cases attributable to pneumococcus and Hib was ascertained with vaccine clinical trial data and state-specific all-cause pneumonia case estimates prepared by WHO/MCEE by use of risk factor prevalence data from India. Pathogen-specific meningitis cases were derived from state-level modelled pathogen-specific meningitis deaths and state-level meningitis case fatality estimates. Pneumococcal and Hib morbidity due to non-pneumonia, non-meningitis (NPNM) invasive syndromes were derived by applying the ratio of pathogen-specific NPNM cases to pathogen-specific meningitis cases to the state-level pathogen-specific meningitis cases. Mortality due to pathogen-specific NPNM was calculated with the ratio of pneumococcal and Hib meningitis case fatality to pneumococcal and Hib meningitis NPNM case fatality. Census data from India provided the population at risk. FINDINGS: Between 2000 and 2015, estimates of pneumococcal deaths in Indian children aged 1-59 months fell from 166 000 (uncertainty range [UR] 110 000-198 000) to 68 700 (44 600-86 000), while Hib deaths fell from 82 600 (52 300-112 000) to 15 600 (9800-21 500), representing a 58% (UR 22-78) decline in pneumococcal deaths and an 81% (59-91) decline in Hib deaths. In 2015, national mortality rates in children aged 1-59 months were 56 (UR 37-71) per 100 000 for pneumococcal infection and 13 (UR 8-18) per 100 000 for Hib. Uttar Pradesh (18 900 [UR 12 300-23 600]) and Bihar (8600 [5600-10 700]) had the highest numbers of pneumococcal deaths in 2015. Uttar Pradesh (9300 [UR 5900-12 700]) and Odisha (1100 [700-1500]) had the highest numbers of Hib deaths in 2015. Less conservative assumptions related to the proportion of pneumonia deaths attributable to pneumococcus indicate that as many as 118 000 (UR 69 000-140 000) total pneumococcal deaths could have occurred in 2015 in India. INTERPRETATION: Pneumococcal and Hib mortality have declined in children aged 1-59 months in India since 2000, even before nationwide implementation of conjugate vaccines. Introduction of the Hib vaccine in several states corresponded with a more rapid reduction in morbidity and mortality associated with Hib infection. Rapid scale-up and widespread use of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and sustained use of the Hib vaccine could help accelerate achievement of child survival targets in India. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Agreeing on global research priorities for medication safety: an international prioritisation exercise.

OBJECTIVES: Medication errors continue to contribute substantially to global morbidity and mortality. In the context of the recent launch of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Third Global Patient Safety Challenge: Medication Without Harm, we sought to establish agreement on research priorities for medication safety. METHODS: We undertook a consensus prioritisation exercise using an approach developed by the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative. Based on a combination of productivity and citations, we identified leading researchers in patient and medication safety and invited them to participate. We also extended the invitation to a further pool of experts from the WHO Global Patient Safety Network. All experts independently generated research ideas, which they then independently scored based on the criteria of: answerability, effectiveness, innovativeness, implementation, burden reduction and equity. An overall Research Priority Score and Average Expert Agreement were calculated for each research question. FINDINGS: 131 experts submitted 333 research ideas, and 42 experts then scored the proposed research questions. The top prioritised research areas were: (1) deploying and scaling technology to enhance medication safety; (2) developing guidelines and standard operating procedures for high-risk patients, medications and contexts; (3) score-based approaches to predicting high-risk patients and situations; (4) interventions to increase patient medication literacy; (5) focused training courses for health professionals; and (6) universally applicable pictograms to avoid medication-related harm. Whilst there was a focus on promoting patient education and involvement across resource settings, priorities identified in high-resource settings centred on the optimisation of existing systems through technology. In low- and middle-resource settings, priorities focused on identifying systemic issues contributing to high-risk situations. CONCLUSIONS: WHO now plans to work with global, regional and national research funding agencies to catalyse the investment needed to enable teams to pursue these research priorities in medication safety across high-, middle- and low-resource country settings.

The global burden of sickle cell disease in children under five years of age: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sickle cell disease (SCD) is a common haematological disorder, affecting millions of people worldwide. It is most prevalent in malarial endemic areas in the tropics where outcomes are often poor due to resource constraints, resulting in most children dying before reaching adulthood. As increasing progress is made towards reducing under 5 mortality from infectious causes, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) including SCD have risen to the forefront of the global health agenda. Despite this, the global mortality burden of SCD remains poorly understood. This study aimed to estimate the incidence and mortality of SCD in children under 5 years of age in order to inform policy and develop sustainable strategies to improve outcomes. METHODOLOGY: We performed a systematic literature search of Medline, EMBASE, Journals@Ovid, and Web of Science for studies on the incidence and mortality of SCD in children under 5, with search dates set from January 1980 and July 2017. We conducted random effects meta-analysis to obtain pooled meta-estimates of birth prevalence and mortality rates globally, and for each World Health Organization (WHO) region. RESULTS: 67 papers were found with relevant data. 52 contained data on incidence and prevalence and 15 contained data on mortality. The overall pooled estimate of mortality from the limited data available was 0.64 per 100 years of child observation (95% CI = 0.28-1.00) with the highest rate seen in Africa 7.3 (95% CI = 4.03-10.57). The global meta-estimate for the birth prevalence of homozygous sickle cell disease was 112 per 100 000 live births (95% CI = 101-123) with a birth prevalence in Africa of 1125 per 100 000 (95% CI = 680.43-1570.54) compared with 43.12 per 100 000 (95% CI = 30.31-55.92) in Europe. CONCLUSION: There were a number of limitations in the depth and breadth of available data however it is clear that both the highest prevalence and highest mortality of SCD is in Africa. In order to address this burden, there is a need for national comprehensive newborn screening to identify patients, and the development of holistic SCD care programmes to provide therapeutics and education for families and children with SCD. This targeted funding should form part of a broader increased global focus on NCDs in childhood.

Setting research priorities to achieve long-term health targets in Iran.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, it was estimated that the burden of disease in Iran comprised of 19 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), 74% of which were due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The observed leading causes of death were cardiovascular diseases (41.9%), neoplasms (14.9%), and road traffic injuries (7.4%). Even so, the health research investment in Iran continues to remain limited. This study aims to identify national health research priorities in Iran for the next five years to assist the efficient use of resources towards achieving the long-term health targets. METHODS: Adapting the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method, this study engaged 48 prominent Iranian academic leaders in the areas related to Iran's long-term health targets, a group of research funders and policy makers, and 68 stakeholders from the wider society. 128 proposed research questions were scored independently using a set of five criteria: feasibility, impact on health, impact on economy, capacity building, and equity. FINDINGS: The top-10 priorities were focused on the research questions relating to: health insurance system reforms to improve equity; integration of NCDs prevention strategy into primary health care; cost-effective population-level interventions for NCDs and road traffic injury prevention; tailoring medical qualifications; epidemiological assessment of NCDs by geographic areas; equality in the distribution of health resources and services; current and future common health problems in Iran's elderly and strategies to reduce their economic burden; the status of antibiotic resistance in Iran and strategies to promote rational use of antibiotics; the health impacts of water crisis; and research to replace the physician-centered health system with a team-based one. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight consensus amongst various prominent Iranian researchers and stakeholders over the research priorities that require investment to generate information and knowledge relevant to the national health targets and policies. The exercise should assist in addressing the knowledge gaps to support both the National General Health Policies by 2025 and the health targets of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.

Variations of dry eye disease prevalence by age, sex and geographic characteristics in China: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Dry eye disease (DED) is one of the most prevalent ocular diseases in the world. In China, new lifestyles driven by information technology and the rapid ageing process have brought DED a severe public health concern. The aim of our study was to obtain the pooled prevalence of DED in China and explore its potential correlates. METHODS: A comprehensive systematic review was conducted to identify all relevant literature published since 1990. Meta-analysis and meta-regression approaches were adopted to estimate the prevalence of DED. The number of people with DED was obtained by multiplying the corresponding demographic data in 2010. RESULTS: Advanced age, female sex and larger latitude were significant risk factors for DED by symptoms and signs, whereas only advanced age was positively associated with an increased prevalence of DED by symptoms. In 2010, the prevalence of DED by symptoms and signs were 13.55% (95% CI = 10.00-18.05) and that of DED by symptoms was 31.40% (95% CI = 23.02-41.13) in Chinese people aged 5-89 years, corresponding to a total of 170.09 million (95% CI = 125.52-226.63) and 394.13 million (95% CI = 288.99-516.30) affected individuals respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The huge burden of DED in China calls for more public health attention and actions. Improved epidemiological studies on DED prevalence are still urgently needed.

Prevalence, risk factors and burden of diabetic retinopathy in China: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Diabetic retinopathy (DR), the primary retinal vascular complication of diabetes mellitus (DM), is a leading cause of vision impairment and blindness in working-age population globally. Despite mounting concerns about the emergence of DM as a major public health problem in the largest developing country, China, much remains to be understood about the epidemiology of DR. We aimed to investigate the prevalence of and risk factors for DR, and estimate the burden of DR in China in 2010. METHODS: China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Wanfang, Chinese Biomedicine Literature Database (CBM-SinoMed), PubMed, Embase and Medline were searched for studies that reported the prevalence of and risk factors for DR in Chinese population between 1990 and 2017. A random-effects meta-analysis model was adopted to pool the overall prevalence of DR. Variations in the prevalence of DR in different age groups, DM duration groups and settings were assessed by subgroup meta-analysis and meta-regression. Odds ratios (ORs) of major risk factors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. The number of people with DR in 2010 was estimated by multiplying the age-specific prevalence of DR in people with DM with the corresponding number of people with DM in China. Finally, the national number of people with DR was distributed into six geographic regions using a risk factor-based model. RESULTS: A total of 31 studies provided information on the prevalence of DR and 21 explored potential risk factors for DR. The pooled prevalence of any DR, nonproliferative DR (NPDR) and proliferative DR (PDR) was 1.14% (95% CI = 0.80-1.52), 0.90% (95% CI = 0.56-1.31) and 0.07% (95% CI = 0.02-0.14) in general population; In people with DM, the pooled prevalence rates were 18.45% (95% CI = 14.77-22.43), 15.06% (95% CI = 11.59-18.88) and 0.99% (95% CI = 0.40-1.80) for any DR, NPDR and PDR, respectively. The prevalence of any DR in DM patients peaked between 60 and 69 years of age, and increased steeply with the duration of DM. DM patients residing in rural China were at a higher risk to have DR than those in urban areas. In addition, insulin treatment, elevated FBG level and higher HbA1c concentration were confirmed to be associated with a higher prevalence of DR in people with DM, with meta-ORs of 1.99 (95% CI = 1.34-2.95), 1.33 (95% CI = 1.12-1.59) and 1.15 (95% CI = 1.09-1.20) respectively. In 2010, a total of 13.16 million (95% CI = 8.95-18.00) Chinese aged 45 years and above were living with DR, among whom the most were in South Central China and the least were in Northwest China. CONCLUSIONS: DR has become a serious public health problem in China. Optimal screening of and interventions on DR should be implemented. Improved epidemiological studies on DR are still required.

Global and regional child deaths due to injuries: an assessment of the evidence.

BACKGROUND: Injuries result in substantial number of deaths among children globally. The burden across many settings is largely unknown. We estimated global and regional child deaths due to injuries from publicly available evidence. METHODS: We searched for community-based studies and nationally representative data reporting on child injury deaths published after year 1990 from CINAHL, EMBASE, IndMed, LILACS, Global Health, MEDLINE, SCOPUS, and Web of Science. Specific and all-cause mortality due to injuries were extracted for three age groups (0-11 months, 1-4 years, and 0-4 years). We conducted random-effects meta-analysis on extracted crude estimates, and developed a meta-regression model to determine the number of deaths due to injuries among children aged 0-4 years globally and across the World Health Organization (WHO) regions. RESULTS: Twenty-nine studies from 16 countries met the selection criteria. A total of 230 data-points on 15 causes of injury deaths were retrieved from all studies. Eighteen studies were rated as high quality, although heterogeneity was high (I2 = 99.7%, P < 0.001) reflecting variable data sources and study designs. For children aged 0-11 months, the pooled crude injury mortality rate was 29.6 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 21.1-38.1) per 100 000 child population, with asphyxiation being the leading cause of death (neonatal) at 189.1 (95% CI = 142.7-235.4) per 100 000 followed by suffocation (post-neonatal) at 18.7 (95% CI = 11.8-25.7) per 100 000. Among children aged 1-4 years, the pooled crude injury mortality rate was 32.7 (95% CI = 27.3-38.1) per 100 000, with traffic injuries and drowning the leading causes of deaths at 10.8 (95% CI = 8.9-12.8) and 8.8 (95% CI = 7.5-10.2) per 100 000, respectively. Among children under five years, the pooled injury mortality rate was 37.7 (95% CI = 32.7-42.7) per 100 000, with traffic injuries and drowning also the leading causes of deaths at 10.3 (95% CI = 8.8-11.8) and 8.9 (95% CI = 7.8-9.9) per 100 000 respectively. When crude mortality changes over age, WHO regions, and study period were accounted for in our model, we estimated that in 2015 there were 522 167 (95% CI = 395 823-648 630) deaths among children aged 0-4 years, with South East Asia (SEARO) recording the highest number of deaths at 195 084 (95% CI = 159476-230502), closely followed by the Africa region (AFRO) with 176523 (95% CI = 115 040-237 831) deaths. Globally, traffic injuries and drowning were the leading causes of under-five injury fatalities in 2015 with 142 661 (22.0/100 000) and 123 270 (19.0/100 000) child deaths, respectively. The exception being burns in AFRO with 57 784 deaths (38.6/100 000). CONCLUSIONS: Varying study designs, case definitions, and particularly limited country representation from Africa and South-East Asia (where we reported higher estimates), imply a need for more studies for better population representative estimates. This study may have however provided improved understanding on child injury death profiles needed to guide further research, policy reforms and relevant strategies globally.

Setting research priorities for maternal, newborn, child health and nutrition in India by engaging experts from 256 indigenous institutions contributing over 4000 research ideas: a CHNRI exercise by ICMR and INCLEN.

BACKGROUND: Health research in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs) is often driven by donor priorities rather than by the needs of the countries where the research takes place. This lack of alignment of donor's priorities with local research need may be one of the reasons why countries fail to achieve set goals for population health and nutrition. India has a high burden of morbidity and mortality in women, children and infants. In order to look forward toward the Sustainable Development Goals, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and the INCLEN Trust International (INCLEN) employed the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative's (CHNRI) research priority setting method for maternal, neonatal, child health and nutrition with the timeline of 2016-2025. The exercise was the largest to-date use of the CHNRI methodology, both in terms of participants and ideas generated and also expanded on the methodology. METHODS: CHNRI is a crowdsourcing-based exercise that involves using the collective intelligence of a group of stakeholders, usually researchers, to generate and score research options against a set of criteria. This paper reports on a large umbrella CHNRI that was divided into four theme-specific CHNRIs (maternal, newborn, child health and nutrition). A National Steering Group oversaw the exercise and four theme-specific Research Sub-Committees technically supported finalizing the scoring criteria and refinement of research ideas for the respective thematic areas. The exercise engaged participants from 256 institutions across India - 4003 research ideas were generated from 498 experts which were consolidated into 373 research options (maternal health: 122; newborn health: 56; child health: 101; nutrition: 94); 893 experts scored these against five criteria (answerability, relevance, equity, innovation and out-of-box thinking, investment on research). Relative weights to the criteria were assigned by 79 members from the Larger Reference Group. Given India's diversity, priorities were identified at national and three regional levels: (i) the Empowered Action Group (EAG) and North-Eastern States; (ii) States and Union territories in Northern India (including West Bengal); and (iii) States and Union territories in Southern and Western parts of India. CONCLUSIONS: The exercise leveraged the inherent flexibility of the CHNRI method in multiple ways. It expanded on the CHNRI methodology enabling analyses for identification of research priorities at national and regional levels. However, prioritization of research options are only valuable if they are put to use, and we hope that donors will take advantage of this prioritized list of research options.

Reporting of health estimates prior to GATHER: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Generating estimates of health indicators at the global, regional, and country levels is increasingly in demand in order to meet reporting requirements for global and country targets, such as the sustainable development goals (SDGs). However, such estimates are sensitive to availability of input data, underlying analytic assumptions, variability in statistical techniques, and often have important limitations. From a user perspective, there is often a lack of transparency and replicability. In order to define best practices in reporting data and methods used to calculate health estimates, the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) working group developed a minimum checklist of 18 items that must be reported within each study publishing health estimates, so that users may make an assessment of the quality of the estimate. OBJECTIVE: We conducted a scoping review to assess the state of reporting amongst a cross-sectional sample of studies published prior to the publication of GATHER. METHODS: We generated a sample of UN reports and journal articles through a combination of a Medline search and hand-searching published health estimates. From these studies we extracted the percentage of studies correctly reporting each item on the checklist, the proportion of items reported per study (the GATHER performance score), and how this score varied depending on study type. RESULTS: The average proportion of items reported per study was 0.47, and the poorest-performing items related to documentation and availability of input data, availability of the statistical code used and the subsequent output data, and a complete detailed description of all the steps of the data analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Methods for health estimates are not currently fully reported, and the implementation of the GATHER guidelines will improve the availability of information required to make an assessment of study quality.