Costs of introducing pneumococcal, rotavirus and a second dose of measles vaccine into the Zambian immunisation programme: Are expansions sustainable?

BACKGROUND: Introduction of new vaccines in low- and lower middle-income countries has accelerated since Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance was established in 2000. This study sought to (i) estimate the costs of introducing pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, rotavirus vaccine and a second dose of measles vaccine in Zambia; and (ii) assess affordability of the new vaccines in relation to Gavi's co-financing and eligibility policies. METHODS: Data on 'one-time' costs of cold storage expansions, training and social mobilisation were collected from the government and development partners. A detailed economic cost study of routine immunisation based on a representative sample of 51 health facilities provided information on labour and vaccine transport costs. Gavi co-financing payments and immunisation programme costs were projected until 2022 when Zambia is expected to transition from Gavi support. The ability of Zambia to self-finance both new and traditional vaccines was assessed by comparing these with projected government health expenditures. RESULTS: 'One-time' costs of introducing the three vaccines amounted to US$ 0.28 per capita. The new vaccines increased annual immunisation programme costs by 38%, resulting in economic cost per fully immunised child of US$ 102. Co-financing payments on average increased by 10% during 2008-2017, but must increase 49% annually between 2017 and 2022. In 2014, the government spent approximately 6% of its health expenditures on immunisation. Assuming no real budget increases, immunisation would account for around 10% in 2022. Vaccines represented 1% of government, non-personnel expenditures for health in 2014, and would be 6% in 2022, assuming no real budget increases. CONCLUSION: While the introduction of new vaccines is justified by expected positive health impacts, long-term affordability will be challenging in light of the current economic climate in Zambia. The government needs to both allocate more resources to the health sector and seek efficiency gains within service provision.

A Preliminary Assessment of Rotavirus Vaccine Effectiveness in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhea is the third leading cause of child death in Zambia. Up to one-third of diarrhea cases resulting in hospitalization and/or death are caused by vaccine-preventable rotavirus. In January 2012, Zambia initiated a pilot introduction of the Rotarix live, oral rotavirus vaccine in all public health facilities in Lusaka Province. METHODS: Between July 2012 and October 2013, we conducted a case-control study at 6 public sector sites to estimate rotavirus vaccine effectiveness (VE) in age-eligible children presenting with diarrhea. We computed the odds of having received at least 1 dose of Rotarix among children whose stool was positive for rotavirus antigen (cases) and children whose stool was negative (controls). We adjusted the resulting odds ratio (OR) for patient age, calendar month of presentation, and clinical site, and expressed VE as (1 - adjusted OR) × 100. RESULTS: A total of 91 rotavirus-positive cases and 298 rotavirus-negative controls who had under-5 card-confirmed vaccination status and were ≥6 months of age were included in the case-control analysis. Among rotavirus-positive children who were age-eligible to be vaccinated, 20% were hospitalized. Against rotavirus diarrhea of all severity, the adjusted 2-dose VE was 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], -30% to 58%) among children ≥6 months of age. VE against hospitalized children ≥6 months of age was 56% (95% CI, -34% to 86%). CONCLUSIONS: We observed a higher point estimate for VE against increased severity of illness compared with milder disease, but were not powered to detect a low level of VE against milder disease.