Luck perception is associated with less frequent preventive practices and a higher number of social contacts among adults during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

Objectives: Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been crucial to reduce transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in many countries including the United Kingdom. A key research priority has been to better understand psychological and social determinants of health behaviours. We aimed to quantify the impact of luck perception on contact and preventive behaviours among adults in the UK, adjusting for key confounders. Study design: A cross-sectional study. Methods: Data were collected between July 28 and August 31, 2020. Luck perception, which refers to a belief whether individual's SARS-CoV-2 infection status is determined by fate or chance, was measured using Chance score, drawing on Health Locus of Control Theory. Self-reporting online questionnaires were administered to obtain participants' contact patterns and frequencies of avoiding crowds, hand washing and wearing a mask. Associations between luck perception and protective behaviours and contact patterns were quantified using regression models. Results: Data from 233 survey respondents were analysed. Chance score was negatively associated with all protective behaviours; avoiding crowds (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.46, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.25-0.86, p = 0.02), washing hands (aOR 0.35, 95%CI 0.17-0.70, p = 0.003), and wearing masks (aOR 0.58, 95%CI 0.34-0.99, p = 0.046). For non-physical contacts (with or without distancing), a significant interaction was identified between Chance score and ethnicity. Chance score increased the number of non-physical contacts among white British, an opposite trend was observed for non-white participants. Conclusions: Luck perception during the pandemic may affect individuals' health protection behaviours and contact patterns. Further mechanistic understandings of human behaviours against infectious diseases are indispensable for effective response to future pandemics.

Distribution of selected healthcare resources for influenza pandemic response in Cambodia.

INTRODUCTION: Human influenza infection poses a serious public health threat in Cambodia, a country at risk for the emergence and spread of novel influenza viruses with pandemic potential. Prior pandemics demonstrated the adverse impact of influenza on poor communities in developing countries. Investigation of healthcare resource distribution can inform decisions regarding resource mobilization and investment for pandemic mitigation. METHODS: A health facility survey performed across Cambodia obtained data on availability of healthcare resources important for pandemic influenza response. Focusing on five key resources considered most necessary for treating severe influenza (inpatient beds, doctors, nurses, oseltamivir, and ventilators), resource distributions were analyzed at the Operational District (OD) and Province levels, refining data analysis from earlier studies. Resources were stratified by respondent type (hospital vs. District Health Office [DHO]). A summary index of distribution inequality was calculated using the Gini coefficient. Indices for local spatial autocorrelation were measured at the OD level using geographical information system (GIS) analysis. Finally, a potential link between socioeconomic status and resource distribution was explored by mapping resource densities against poverty rates. RESULTS: Gini coefficient calculation revealed variable inequality in distribution of the five key resources at the Province and OD levels. A greater percentage of the population resides in areas of relative under-supply (28.5%) than over-supply (21.3%). Areas with more resources per capita showed significant clustering in central Cambodia while areas with fewer resources clustered in the northern and western provinces. Hospital-based inpatient beds, doctors, and nurses were most heavily concentrated in areas of the country with the lowest poverty rates; however, beds and nurses in Non-Hospital Medical Facilities (NHMF) showed increasing concentrations at higher levels of poverty. CONCLUSIONS: There is considerable heterogeneity in healthcare resource distribution across Cambodia. Distribution mapping at the local level can inform policy decisions on where to stockpile resources in advance of and for reallocation in the event of a pandemic. These findings will be useful in determining future health resource investment, both for pandemic preparedness and for general health system strengthening, and provide a foundation for future analyses of equity in health services provision for pandemic mitigation planning in Cambodia.

Understanding and managing zoonotic risk in the new livestock industries.

BACKGROUND: In many parts of the world, livestock production is undergoing a process of rapid intensification. The health implications of this development are uncertain. Intensification creates cheaper products, allowing more people to access animal-based foods. However, some practices associated with intensification may contribute to zoonotic disease emergence and spread: for example, the sustained use of antibiotics, concentration of animals in confined units, and long distances and frequent movement of livestock. OBJECTIVES: Here we present the diverse range of ecological, biological, and socioeconomic factors likely to enhance or reduce zoonotic risk, and identify ways in which a comprehensive risk analysis may be conducted by using an interdisciplinary approach. We also offer a conceptual framework to guide systematic research on this problem. DISCUSSION: We recommend that interdisciplinary work on zoonotic risk should take into account the complexity of risk environments, rather than limiting studies to simple linear causal relations between risk drivers and disease emergence and/or spread. In addition, interdisciplinary integration is needed at different levels of analysis, from the study of risk environments to the identification of policy options for risk management. CONCLUSION: Given rapid changes in livestock production systems and their potential health implications at the local and global level, the problem we analyze here is of great importance for environmental health and development. Although we offer a systematic interdisciplinary approach to understand and address these implications, we recognize that further research is needed to clarify methodological and practical questions arising from the integration of the natural and social sciences.

An analysis of health system resources in relation to pandemic response capacity in the Greater Mekong Subregion.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing perception that countries cannot work in isolation to militate against the threat of pandemic influenza. In the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) of Asia, high socio-economic diversity and fertile conditions for the emergence and spread of infectious diseases underscore the importance of transnational cooperation. Investigation of healthcare resource distribution and inequalities can help determine the need for, and inform decisions regarding, resource sharing and mobilisation. METHODS: We collected data on healthcare resources deemed important for responding to pandemic influenza through surveys of hospitals and district health offices across four countries of the GMS (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, Vietnam). Focusing on four key resource types (oseltamivir, hospital beds, ventilators, and health workers), we mapped and analysed resource distributions at province level to identify relative shortages, mismatches, and clustering of resources. We analysed inequalities in resource distribution using the Gini coefficient and Theil index. RESULTS: Three quarters of the Cambodian population and two thirds of the Laotian population live in relatively underserved provinces (those with resource densities in the lowest quintile across the region) in relation to health workers, ventilators, and hospital beds. More than a quarter of the Thai population is relatively underserved for health workers and oseltamivir. Approximately one fifth of the Vietnamese population is underserved for beds and ventilators. All Cambodian provinces are underserved for at least one resource. In Lao PDR, 11 percent of the population is underserved by all four resource items. Of the four resources, ventilators and oseltamivir were most unequally distributed. Cambodia generally showed higher levels of inequalities in resource distribution compared to other countries. Decomposition of the Theil index suggests that inequalities result principally from differences within, rather than between, countries. CONCLUSIONS: There is considerable heterogeneity in healthcare resource distribution within and across countries of the GMS. Most inequalities result from within countries. Given the inequalities, mismatches, and clustering of resources observed here, resource sharing and mobilization in a pandemic scenario could be crucial for more effective and equitable use of the resources that are available in the GMS.

Development of a resource modelling tool to support decision makers in pandemic influenza preparedness: The AsiaFluCap Simulator.

BACKGROUND: Health care planning for pandemic influenza is a challenging task which requires predictive models by which the impact of different response strategies can be evaluated. However, current preparedness plans and simulations exercises, as well as freely available simulation models previously made for policy makers, do not explicitly address the availability of health care resources or determine the impact of shortages on public health. Nevertheless, the feasibility of health systems to implement response measures or interventions described in plans and trained in exercises depends on the available resource capacity. As part of the AsiaFluCap project, we developed a comprehensive and flexible resource modelling tool to support public health officials in understanding and preparing for surges in resource demand during future pandemics. RESULTS: The AsiaFluCap Simulator is a combination of a resource model containing 28 health care resources and an epidemiological model. The tool was built in MS Excel© and contains a user-friendly interface which allows users to select mild or severe pandemic scenarios, change resource parameters and run simulations for one or multiple regions. Besides epidemiological estimations, the simulator provides indications on resource gaps or surpluses, and the impact of shortages on public health for each selected region. It allows for a comparative analysis of the effects of resource availability and consequences of different strategies of resource use, which can provide guidance on resource prioritising and/or mobilisation. Simulation results are displayed in various tables and graphs, and can also be easily exported to GIS software to create maps for geographical analysis of the distribution of resources. CONCLUSIONS: The AsiaFluCap Simulator is freely available software (http://www.cdprg.org) which can be used by policy makers, policy advisors, donors and other stakeholders involved in preparedness for providing evidence based and illustrative information on health care resource capacities during future pandemics. The tool can inform both preparedness plans and simulation exercises and can help increase the general understanding of dynamics in resource capacities during a pandemic. The combination of a mathematical model with multiple resources and the linkage to GIS for creating maps makes the tool unique compared to other available software.

Health system resource gaps and associated mortality from pandemic influenza across six Asian territories.

BACKGROUND: Southeast Asia has been the focus of considerable investment in pandemic influenza preparedness. Given the wide variation in socio-economic conditions, health system capacity across the region is likely to impact to varying degrees on pandemic mitigation operations. We aimed to estimate and compare the resource gaps, and potential mortalities associated with those gaps, for responding to pandemic influenza within and between six territories in Asia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected health system resource data from Cambodia, Indonesia (Jakarta and Bali), Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. We applied a mathematical transmission model to simulate a "mild-to-moderate" pandemic influenza scenario to estimate resource needs, gaps, and attributable mortalities at province level within each territory. The results show that wide variations exist in resource capacities between and within the six territories, with substantial mortalities predicted as a result of resource gaps (referred to here as "avoidable" mortalities), particularly in poorer areas. Severe nationwide shortages of mechanical ventilators were estimated to be a major cause of avoidable mortalities in all territories except Taiwan. Other resources (oseltamivir, hospital beds and human resources) are inequitably distributed within countries. Estimates of resource gaps and avoidable mortalities were highly sensitive to model parameters defining the transmissibility and clinical severity of the pandemic scenario. However, geographic patterns observed within and across territories remained similar for the range of parameter values explored. CONCLUSIONS: The findings have important implications for where (both geographically and in terms of which resource types) investment is most needed, and the potential impact of resource mobilization for mitigating the disease burden of an influenza pandemic. Effective mobilization of resources across administrative boundaries could go some way towards minimizing avoidable deaths.

Emerging infectious diseases in southeast Asia: regional challenges to control.

Southeast Asia is a hotspot for emerging infectious diseases, including those with pandemic potential. Emerging infectious diseases have exacted heavy public health and economic tolls. Severe acute respiratory syndrome rapidly decimated the region's tourist industry. Influenza A H5N1 has had a profound effect on the poultry industry. The reasons why southeast Asia is at risk from emerging infectious diseases are complex. The region is home to dynamic systems in which biological, social, ecological, and technological processes interconnect in ways that enable microbes to exploit new ecological niches. These processes include population growth and movement, urbanisation, changes in food production, agriculture and land use, water and sanitation, and the effect of health systems through generation of drug resistance. Southeast Asia is home to about 600 million people residing in countries as diverse as Singapore, a city state with a gross domestic product (GDP) of US$37,500 per head, and Laos, until recently an overwhelmingly rural economy, with a GDP of US$890 per head. The regional challenges in control of emerging infectious diseases are formidable and range from influencing the factors that drive disease emergence, to making surveillance systems fit for purpose, and ensuring that regional governance mechanisms work effectively to improve control interventions.

A conceptual and analytical approach to comparative analysis of country case studies: HIV and TB control programmes and health systems integration.

Attempts to comparatively analyse large-scale communicable disease control programmes have, for the most part, neglected the wider health system contexts within which the programmes lie. In addition, many evaluations of the integration of vertical disease control programmes into health systems have focused on single case studies or on a limited number of cases, or, when large numbers of cases were drawn upon, have been presented as a compendium of monographs rather than a systematic cross-national comparison. One reason for this may be that appropriate theories and tools for comparative health systems analysis are rare and difficult to formulate. In this paper we propose a conceptual framework and an analytical methodology which might be used to comparatively analyse a series of case studies that explore health systems, communicable diseases programmes and concepts of integration in order to make systematic comparisons to offer novel insights, to test new theories and to offer new hypotheses. We illustrate through a preliminary analysis how this framework can be applied to compare the impact of health systems integration and HIV and TB programmes in four countries in South-East Asia that were the subject of cases studies.

Critical interactions between Global Fund-supported programmes and health systems: a case study in Lao People's Democratic Republic.

In Lao PDR, investment by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria has played an important role in scaling up the response to HIV and tuberculosis (TB). As part of a series of case studies on how Global Fund-supported programmes interact with national health systems, we assessed the nature and extent of integration of the Global Fund portfolios within the national HIV and TB programmes, the integration of the HIV and TB programmes within the general health system, and system-wide effects of Global Fund support in Lao PDR. The study relied on a literature review and 35 interviews with key stakeholders using the Systemic Rapid Assessment Toolkit and thematic analysis. In Lao PDR, the HIV and TB programmes remain vertical and mostly weakly integrated with the general health system. However, Global Fund investments have extended the network of facilities delivering care at local level, resulting in greater integration with primary care and improved access for patients, particularly for TB. For HIV, as the prevalence remains low, services primarily target high-risk groups in urban areas. Less integrated functions include procurement and drug supply, and monitoring and evaluation. HIV and TB programmes are only starting to coordinate with each other. Global Fund-supported activities are generally integrated within the national disease programmes, except for monitoring and evaluation. Synergies of Global Fund support with the health system include improved access to services, institutional strengthening and capacity building, improved family planning (with wider condom distribution through HIV/AIDS social marketing programmes), and the delivery of add-on interventions, such as vaccinations and health education, alongside Global Fund-supported interventions at community level. Unintended consequences concern the lack of alignment between national stated priorities (maternal and child health) and the strong focus of external partners, such as the Global Fund, on financing communicable disease programmes.

Critical interactions between Global Fund-supported programmes and health systems: a case study in Indonesia.

The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria has played an important role in financing the response to HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB) in Indonesia. As part of a series of case studies, we assessed the nature and extent of integration of Global Fund portfolios into the national HIV and TB programmes, integration of the HIV and TB programmes within the general health system, and system-wide effects of Global Fund support on the health care system in Indonesia. The study relied on a literature review and interviews with 22 key informants using the Systemic Rapid Assessment Toolkit and thematic analysis. Global Fund programmes in Indonesia are highly vertical and centralized, in contrast with the decentralized nature of the Indonesian health system. Consequently, there is more integration of all functions at local levels than centrally. There is a high level of integration of planning of Global Fund HIV and TB portfolios into the National AIDS and TB programmes and some limited integration of these programmes with other disease programmes, through joint working groups. Other synergies include strengthening of stewardship and governance and increased staff recruitment encouraged by incentive payments and training. Monitoring and evaluation functions of the Global Fund programmes are not integrated with the disease programmes, with parallel indicators and reporting systems. System-wide effects include greater awareness of governance and stewardship in response to the temporary suspension of Global Fund funding in 2008, and increased awareness of the need to integrate programme planning, financing and service delivery. Global Fund investment has freed up resources for other programmes, particularly at local levels. However, this may hinder a robust exit strategy from Global Fund funding. Furthermore, Global Fund monetary incentives may result in staff shifting into HIV and TB programmes.

Critical interactions between Global Fund-supported programmes and health systems: a case study in Papua New Guinea.

In Papua New Guinea, investment by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (the Global Fund) has played an important role in scaling up the response to HIV and tuberculosis (TB). As part of a series of case studies on how Global Fund-supported programmes interact with national health systems, we assessed the nature and extent of integration of the Global Fund portfolios within the national HIV and TB programmes, the integration of the HIV and TB programmes within the general health system, and system-wide effects of Global Fund support in Papua New Guinea. The study relied on a literature review and 30 interviews with key stakeholders using the Systemic Rapid Assessment Toolkit and thematic analysis. Global Fund-supported activities were found to be largely integrated, or at least coordinated, with the national HIV and TB programmes. However, this has reinforced the vertical nature of these programmes with respect to the general health system, with parallel systems established to meet the demands of programme scale-up and the performance-based nature of Global Fund investment in the weak health system context of Papua New Guinea. The more parallel functions include monitoring and evaluation, and procurement and supply chain systems, while human resources and infrastructure for service delivery are increasingly integrated at more local levels. Positive synergies of Global Fund support include engagement of civil-society partners, and a reliable supply of high-quality drugs which may have increased patient confidence in the health system. However, the severely limited and overburdened pool of human resources has been skewed towards the three diseases, both at management and service delivery levels. There is also concern surrounding the sustainability of the disease programmes, given their dependence on donors. Increasing Global Fund attention towards health system strengthening was viewed positively, but should acknowledge that system changes are slow, difficult to measure and require long-term support.