From private incentives to public health need: rethinking research and development for pandemic preparedness.

Pandemic preparedness and response have relied primarily on market dynamics to drive development and availability of new health products. Building on calls for transformation, we propose a new value proposition that instead prioritises equity from the research and development (R&D) stage and that strengthens capacity to control outbreaks when and where they occur. Key elements include regional R&D hubs free to adapt well established technology platforms, and independent clinical trials networks working with researchers, regulators, and health authorities to better study questions of comparative benefit and real-world efficacy. Realising these changes requires a shift in emphasis: from pandemic response to outbreak control, from one-size-fits-all economies of scale to R&D and manufacture for local need, from de novo product development to last-mile innovation through adaptation of existing technologies, and from proprietary, competitive R&D to open science and financing for the common good that supports collective management and sharing of technology and know-how.

The Future of Epidemic and Pandemic Vaccines to Serve Global Public Health Needs.

This Review initiates a wide-ranging discussion over 2023 by selecting and exploring core themes to be investigated more deeply in papers submitted to the Vaccines Special Issue on the "Future of Epidemic and Pandemic Vaccines to Serve Global Public Health Needs". To tackle the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, an acceleration of vaccine development across different technology platforms resulted in the emergency use authorization of multiple vaccines in less than a year. Despite this record speed, many limitations surfaced including unequal access to products and technologies, regulatory hurdles, restrictions on the flow of intellectual property needed to develop and manufacture vaccines, clinical trials challenges, development of vaccines that did not curtail or prevent transmission, unsustainable strategies for dealing with variants, and the distorted allocation of funding to favour dominant companies in affluent countries. Key to future epidemic and pandemic responses will be sustainable, global-public-health-driven vaccine development and manufacturing based on equitable access to platform technologies, decentralised and localised innovation, and multiple developers and manufacturers, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). There is talk of flexible, modular pandemic preparedness, of technology access pools based on non-exclusive global licensing agreements in exchange for fair compensation, of WHO-supported vaccine technology transfer hubs and spokes, and of the creation of vaccine prototypes ready for phase I/II trials, etc. However, all these concepts face extraordinary challenges shaped by current commercial incentives, the unwillingness of pharmaceutical companies and governments to share intellectual property and know-how, the precariousness of building capacity based solely on COVID-19 vaccines, the focus on large-scale manufacturing capacity rather than small-scale rapid-response innovation to stop outbreaks when and where they occur, and the inability of many resource-limited countries to afford next-generation vaccines for their national vaccine programmes. Once the current high subsidies are gone and interest has waned, sustaining vaccine innovation and manufacturing capability in interpandemic periods will require equitable access to vaccine innovation and manufacturing capabilities in all regions of the world based on many vaccines, not just "pandemic vaccines". Public and philanthropic investments will need to leverage enforceable commitments to share vaccines and critical technology so that countries everywhere can establish and scale up vaccine development and manufacturing capability. This will only happen if we question all prior assumptions and learn the lessons offered by the current pandemic. We invite submissions to the special issue, which we hope will help guide the world towards a global vaccine research, development, and manufacturing ecosystem that better balances and integrates scientific, clinical trial, regulatory, and commercial interests and puts global public health needs first.

Diet in a global cohort of adults with HIV at low-to-moderate traditional cardiovascular disease risk.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize diet quality across a global cohort of people with HIV (PWH). DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis. METHODS: Leveraging REPRIEVE data from baseline across five Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions, we analyzed participant responses to the Rapid Eating Assessment for Participants questionnaire. An overall diet quality score and scores for specific diet components were generated. Higher scores indicate better diet quality. RESULTS: Among 7736 participants (median age 50 years, 30% women, median BMI 25.8 kg/m 2 ) overall diet quality score (max score 30) was optimal in 13% of participants and good, suboptimal or poor in 45%, 38%, and 4% of participants, respectively; saturated fat score (max score 18) was good, suboptimal, or poor in 38%, 40%, or 7% of participants, respectively. Diet quality scores differed across GBD region with the highest scores reported in the South Asia region [median 23 (21-25)] and lowest in the sub-Saharan Africa region [median 15 (12-18)]; 61% of participants in the South Asia region reported optimal diet quality compared with only 6% in the sub-Saharan Africa region. Higher atherosclerotic cardiovascular risk scores were seen with worsening diet quality. CONCLUSION: Among PWH eligible for primary CVD prevention, diet quality was suboptimal or poor for almost half of participants, and there were substantial variations in diet quality reported by GBD region. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02344290.

Pharmacokinetics and 48-week safety and efficacy of generic ritonavir tablet-boosted atazanavir in HIV-1-infected Thai adults.

BACKGROUND: Ritonavir (RTV) tablets were not available in Thailand until they were manufactured by the Government Pharmaceutical Organization of Thailand. We assessed pharmacokinetics (PK), safety and efficacy of generic RTV-boosted atazanavir (ATV) in virologically suppressed HIV-1-infected Thai adults. METHODS: Virologically suppressed HIV-1-infected Thai adults who currently use ATV (either 200 or 300 mg) with Norvir® soft gel capsule (SGC) 100-mg-based regimen were enrolled into this prospective, 48-week single-arm study. Participants switched from Norvir® SGC to generic RTV. Plasma trough concentration (Ctrough) was assessed at baseline before switching to generic RTV and week 24 in all participants, with the target ATV Ctrough of 0.15 mg/l. Plasma HIV-1 RNA and other laboratory safety parameters were assessed until week 48. RESULTS: Of 100 participants (51% male) enrolled, 50% was using ATV 200 mg and 50% was using 300 mg at the time RTV SGC were changed into generic tablets. All participants used two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) as backbone. There were no significant changes in mean (sd) Ctrough of RTV (0.20 [0.33] versus 0.23 [0.39]; P=0.21) and ATV (0.83 [0.93] versus 0.88 [0.95]; P=0.62) between baseline and week 24. From entry to week 48, median alanine aminotransferase significantly increased from 25 to 30 IU/l (P=0.001) and total bilirubin significantly decreased from 1.7 to 1.3 (P=0.04). One study drug related grade 3 adverse event was reported. All but one participant maintained plasma HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/ml after 48 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: Generic RTV-boosted ATV showed adequate levels, good tolerability and great efficacy after 48 weeks.

Attrition and Mortality of Children Receiving Antiretroviral Treatment through the Universal Coverage Health Program in Thailand.

OBJECTIVE: To assess mortality and loss to follow-up of children with HIV infection who started antiretroviral therapy (ART) through the Universal Coverage Health Program (UC) in Thailand. STUDY DESIGN: Children with HIV infection who initiated ART at age <15 years through the UC between 2008 and 2013 were included in the analysis. Death was ascertained through linkage with the National Death Registry. A competing-risks method was used to calculate subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) of predictors for loss to follow-up. Death was considered a competing risk. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess predictors of mortality. RESULTS: A total of 4618 children from 497 hospitals in Thailand were included in the study. Median age at ART initiation was 9 years (IQR, 6-12 years), and the median duration of tracking was 4.1 years (a total of 18 817 person-years). Three hundred and ninety-five children (9%) died, for a mortality rate of 2.1 (95% CI, 1.9-2.3) per 100 person-years, and 525 children (11%) were lost to follow-up, for a lost to follow-up rate of 2.9 (95% CI, 2.7-3.2) per 100 person-years. The cumulative incidence of loss to follow-up increased from 4% at 1 year to 8.8% at 3 years. Children who started ART at age ≥12 years were at the greatest risk of loss to follow-up. The probability of death was 3.2% at 6 months and 6.4% at 3 years. Age ≥12 years at ART initiation, lower baseline CD4%, advanced HIV staging, and loss to follow-up were associated with mortality. CONCLUSION: The Thai national HIV treatment program has been very effective in treating children with HIV infection, with low mortality and modest rates of loss to follow-up.

Real-Life Clinical Practice of Using the Xpert MTB/RIF Assay in Thailand.

BACKGROUND: Delayed diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) and drug-resistant TB are major challenges of TB control in Thailand. This study assessed the practicality of the Xpert MTB/RIF assay in a real-life setting with high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB). METHODS: This prospective study was conducted at 3 large tertiary care hospitals. Patients who had suspected PTB were enrolled into the study. Expectorated sputum samples were sent for staining, mycobacterial culture, and Xpert MTB/RIF. RESULTS: Four hundred ninety-four patients were enrolled. From 355 cases with final diagnosis of PTB, 263 (71.8%) had definite diagnosis and 92 cases had probable diagnosis. Among TB culture-positive cases, Xpert MTB/RIF had 100% and 81% sensitivity in sputum smear-positive and smear-negative groups, respectively. The specificity was 95.7%. The sensitivity and positive predictive value of Xpert MTB/RIF in culture-negative but clinically diagnosed PTB was 37.8% and 83.8%, respectively. Centrifugation was required in 59% cases with scanty sputum. Five cases were false-positive by Xpert MTB/RIF in patients with nontuberculous mycobacteria, old PTB scar, and immune reconstitution syndrome. Discordant rifampicin susceptibility results of Xpert MTB/RIF and mycobacteria growth indicator tube (MGIT) were confirmed by using rpoB gene sequencing, which raised the sensitivity of Xpert MTB/RIF in detecting rifampicin resistance to 93.8%. CONCLUSIONS: Xpert MTB/RIF is an effective tool in diagnosing PTB but will be more cost-effective for sputum-negative patients and in settings with high prevalence of rifampicin resistance. Early diagnosis of TB results in early treatment and implementation of strategies to limit spreading of TB. Sputum centrifugation may increase the yield of Xpert MTB/RIF.

First-Line Antiretroviral Treatment Outcomes and Durability in HIV-Infected Children Treated Through the Universal Coverage Health Program in Thailand.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the treatment outcomes on first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART), and factors associated with switching regimen in HIV-infected children treated through the universal coverage health program (UC) in Thailand. METHODS: Children aged <15 years at ART initiation who had been receiving ART for at least 6 months between 2008 and 2014 through UC were included in the analysis. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate immunological recovery (IMR), immunological failure, and virological failure (VF). Cox models were used to assess predictors of IMR and VF. Competing risk models were used to assess factors associated with switching to a second-line regimen, with death considered as a competing risk. RESULTS: A total of 4120 children initiated ART at a median (interquartile range) age of 9.3 (5.8-12.0) years. The median duration of ART was 3.7 years with 17,950 person-years of follow-up. Two thousand eight hundred five children achieved IMR, and the probability of IMR increased to 76% by 3 years after ART initiation. Among 1054 children switched to second-line regimens, 84% had VF and 19% had immunological failure. The cumulative rate of switching regimen increased from 4% to 20% from 1 to 3 years after treatment. Children aged ≥12 years at ART initiation, starting with nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors, and baseline CD4% <10% had an increased risk of switching to second-line regimens. CONCLUSIONS: Children receiving ART through UC had good treatment outcomes, although a fifth required switching regimen by 3 years. Earlier treatment initiation and avoiding nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor first-line regimens in high-risk children may prevent treatment failure.

Population pharmacokinetics and dose optimisation of ritonavir-boosted atazanavir in Thai HIV-infected patients.

There is evidence that Thai patients receiving standard doses of ritonavir (RTV)-boosted atazanavir (ATV/r) have high exposure to atazanavir (ATV) leading to a higher risk of toxicity. A lower dose of ATV/r may provide adequate exposure in this population. However, pharmacokinetic data on ATV/r in Thai patients required for dose adjustment are limited. This study aimed to develop a population pharmacokinetic model of ATV/r and to determine the influence of patient characteristics on ATV pharmacokinetics. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to estimate the proportion of patients achieving target ATV trough concentration (Ctrough) with the standard ATV/r dose of 300/100 mg and a low dose of 200/100 mg once daily (OD). A total of 127 Thai HIV-infected patients were included in this study. One random blood sample was collected to determine ATV and RTV concentrations at each clinic visit from 100 patients. Intensive data from 27 patients enrolled in previous studies were also included. Data were analysed using the non-linear mixed-effects modelling approach. A one-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination and absorption lag time best described the data. The population mean clearance of ATV/r was 4.93 L/h in female patients and was 28.7% higher in male patients. Simulation results showed a higher proportion of patients achieving ATV Ctrough within the target range with ATV/r 200/100 mg compared with 300/100 mg. The 200/100 mg OD dose of ATV/r provides adequate ATV exposure in Thai HIV-infected patients. Therefore, a lower dose of ATV/r should be considered for Thai and Asian populations.

Pharmaceutical Equivalence of Distributed Generic Antiretroviral (ARV) in Asian Settings: The Cross-Sectional Surveillance Study - PEDA Study.

OBJECTIVES: Ensuring that medicines meet quality standards is mandatory for ensuring safety and efficacy. There have been occasional reports of substandard generic medicines, especially in resource-limiting settings where policies to control quality may be less rigorous. As HIV treatment in Thailand depends mostly on affordable generic antiretrovirals (ARV), we performed quality assurance testing of several generic ARV available from different sources in Thailand and a source from Vietnam. METHODS: We sampled Tenofovir 300mg, Efavirenz 600mg and Lopinavir/ritonavir 200/50mg from 10 primary hospitals randomly selected from those participating in the National AIDS Program, 2 non-government organization ARV clinics, and 3 private drug stores. Quality of ARV was analyzed by blinded investigators at the Faculty of Pharmaceutical Science, Chulalongkorn University. The analysis included an identification test for drug molecules, a chemical composition assay to quantitate the active ingredients, a uniformity of mass test and a dissolution test to assess in-vitro drug release. Comparisons were made against the standards described in the WHO international pharmacopeia. RESULTS: A total of 42 batches of ARV from 15 sources were sampled from January-March 2015. Among those generics, 23, 17, 1, and 1 were Thai-made, Indian-made, Vietnamese-made and Chinese-made, respectively. All sampled products, regardless of manufacturers or sources, met the International Pharmacopeia standards for composition assay, mass uniformity and dissolution. Although local regulations restrict ARV supply to hospitals and clinics, samples of ARV could be bought from private drug stores even without formal prescription. CONCLUSION: Sampled generic ARVs distributed within Thailand and 1 Vietnamese pharmacy showed consistent quality. However some products were illegally supplied without prescription, highlighting the importance of dispensing ARV for treatment or prevention in facilities where continuity along the HIV treatment and care cascade is available.

Prices of second-line antiretroviral treatment for middle-income countries inside versus outside sub-Saharan Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Antiretrovirals are available at low prices in sub-Saharan Africa, but these prices may not be consistently available for middle-income countries in other regions with large HIV epidemics. Over 30% of HIV infected people live in countries outside sub-Saharan Africa. Several key antiretrovirals are still on patent, with generic production restricted. We assessed price variations for key antiretroviral drugs inside versus outside sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: HIV drug prices used in national programmes (2010-2014) were extracted from the WHO Global Price Reporting Mechanism database for all reporting middle-income countries as classified by the World Bank. Treatment costs (branded and generic) were compared for countries inside sub-Saharan Africa versus those outside. Five key second-line antiretrovirals were analysed: abacavir, atazanavir, darunavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, raltegravir. RESULTS: Prices of branded antiretrovirals were significantly higher outside sub-Saharan Africa (p<0.001, adjusted for year of purchase) (see Table 1). For example, the median (interquartile range) price of darunavir from Janssen was $732 (IQR $732-806) per person-year in sub-Saharan Africa versus $4689 (IQR $4075-5717) in non-African middle-income countries, an increase of 541%. However, when supplied by generic companies, most antiretrovirals were similarly priced between countries in sub-Saharan Africa and other regions. CONCLUSIONS: Pharmaceutical companies are selling antiretrovirals to non-African middle-income countries at prices 74-541% higher than African countries with similar gross national incomes. However, generic companies are selling most of these drugs at similar prices across regions. Mechanisms to ensure fair pricing for patented antiretrovirals across both African and non-African middle-income countries need to be improved, to ensure sustainable treatment access.

Assessment of HBV flare in a randomized clinical trial in HIV/HBV coinfected subjects initiating HBV-active antiretroviral therapy in Thailand.

BACKGROUND: Hepatic Flare (HF) after initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in HIV-HBV coinfected individuals is well recognized but prospective data on predictors and subsequent outcome are limited. METHODS: The Tenofovir in HIV-HBV coinfection study was a randomized clinical trial of HBV-active HAART including lamivudine and/or tenofovir in antiretroviral naïve HIV-HBV individuals in Thailand. RESULTS: Early HF (EHF) was defined as ALT > 5 × ULN during the first 12 weeks. EHF was observed in 8 (22%) of individuals at a median of 56 days. 6/8 EHF cases were asymptomatic and resolved with HAART continuation, however one subject with underlying cirrhosis died following rapid hepatic decompensation. EHF was significantly associated with higher baseline ALT (79 IU/L vs 36 IU/L non-EHF, p = 0.008) and HBV DNA (9.9 log10 c/ml vs 8.4 log10 c/ml non EHF, p = 0.009), and subsequent serological change. HBeAg loss occurred in 75% of EHF cases versus 22% in non-EHF (p = 0.04), and HBsAg loss in 25% of EHF cases versus 4% of non-EHF (p = 0.053). CONCLUSION: EHF after HBV active HAART initiation was frequently observed in this population. Timing of EHF, association with elevated ALT and HBV DNA and high rate of seroconversion are all consistent with immune restoration as the likely underlying process. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: NCT00192595.

Nadir CD4 count and monthly income predict cervical squamous cell abnormalities in HIV-positive women in a resource-limited setting.

We conducted a cross-sectional study with 385 HIV-positive women in Bangkok to assess the prevalence and predictors of cervical abnormalities on Papanicolaou (Pap) smear. Low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL), high-grade SIL (HSIL) and invasive cervical cell cancer (ICC) were assessed by cytological examination after Pap smear and logistic regression models were used to assess associations with patient characteristics. Overall prevalence of LSIL, HSIL and ICC were 11.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.2-14.7%), 4.7% (95%CI 2.8-7.3%) and 0.5% (95%CI 0.06-1.9%), respectively. In multivariate models, only the nadir CD4 count and income remained significantly associated with cytological abnormalities, whereas smoking, hormonal contraceptive or antiretroviral use, condom use, parity and number of lifetime sexual partners were not associated. The odds ratio for having cytological abnormalities was 2.6 (95% CI 1.24-5.34) in those with a nadir CD4 count <200 cells/mm3 compared with those with a higher nadir CD4 count, and 1.99 (1.11-3.57) in those with an income of <125 US dollars/month compared with those with higher incomes. In settings where access to affordable treatment is improving, this study reinforces the importance of regular Pap smear screening in HIV-positive women, particularly those with low nadir CD4 counts and lower incomes.

Cost savings by reagent reduction in flow cytometry-based CD4+ T cell counts: an approach to improve accessibility for HIV management.

In Thailand, the cost of antiretrovirals has recently been reduced more than 10 fold. Likewise strategies for a cost reduction in laboratory monitoring are warranted. This study was designed to explore if the most expensive reagent in flow cytometry based CD4+ cell monitoring, the CD4+/CD8+ monoclonal antibodies, can be reduced without a loss of accuracy. Blood samples from 55 HIV seronegative (HIV-) and 76 HIV+ subjects were analyzed for %CD4+ and %CD8+ T cells using a two color monoclonal antibody panel (BD Biosciences, CA, USA) with 3 different amounts of the recommended reagents for staining: 1) standard, 2) half, and 3) one-fourth. A significant Spearman correlation of 0.987 was shown for the % CD4+ T cell test results for one half as well as one-fourth of the recommended amount compared to the standard staining according to the manufacturer's instruction (p < 0.0001). For the % CD8+ T cell test results, the correlation between the standard and the half or one-fourth reduced staining was 0.972 (p < 0.0001). Bland-Altman analysis showed no significant bias between the results from one half or one-fourth of the recommended amount versus the standard. The sensitivity and specificity of the two methods at the CD4+ T cell count cut-off of 200 cells/microl were 93% and 100%; and 96% and 99%, respectively. Our study indicates that a reduction of the reagents to half or one-fourth of the amount recommended by the manufacturer was still able to generate reliable results for CD4+ and CD8+ T cell counts. Such an approach will significantly reduce the cost of CD4+ monitoring for resource limited settings where a flow cytometer is available.

CD4-guided scheduled treatment interruptions compared with continuous therapy for patients infected with HIV-1: results of the Staccato randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Stopping antiretroviral therapy in patients with HIV-1 infection can reduce costs and side-effects, but carries the risk of increased immune suppression and emergence of resistance. METHODS: 430 patients with CD4-positive T-lymphocyte (CD4) counts greater than 350 cells per muL, and viral load less than 50 copies per mL were randomised to continued therapy (n=146) or scheduled treatment interruptions (n=284). Median time on randomised treatment was 21.9 months (range 16.4-25.3). Primary endpoints were proportion of patients with viral load less than 50 copies per mL at the end of the trial, and amount of drugs used. Analysis was intention-to-treat. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov with the identifier NCT00113126. FINDINGS: Drug savings in the scheduled treatment interruption group, compared with continuous treatment, amounted to 61.5%. 257 of 284 (90.5%) patients in the scheduled treatment interruption group reached a viral load less than 50 copies per mL, compared with 134 of 146 (91.8%) in the continued treatment group (difference 1.3%, 95% CI-4.3 to 6.9, p=0.90). No AIDS-defining events occurred. Diarrhoea and neuropathy were more frequent with continuous treatment; candidiasis was more frequent with scheduled treatment interruption. Ten patients (2.3%) had resistance mutations, with no significant differences between groups. INTERPRETATION: Drug savings with scheduled treatment interruption were substantial, and no evidence of increased treatment resistance emerged. Treatment-related adverse events were more frequent with continuous treatment, but low CD4 counts and minor manifestations of HIV infection were more frequent with scheduled treatment interruption.