Burden of disease and associated complications of hepatitis a in children and adults in Mexico: A retrospective database study.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection is a leading cause of viral hepatitis in children, yet the HAV vaccine is not included in the national immunization program (NIP) in Mexico. This study addresses an identified evidence gap of the burden of hepatitis A disease, complications, and associated costs in Mexico by analyzing surveillance and healthcare data. Data review included disease morbidity (incidence and hospitalization), mortality, and healthcare resource utilization costs. METHODS: In this observational, retrospective database study, we conducted a systematic screening, extraction, and analysis of outcome data from the national surveillance system in Mexico from January 2000 to December 2019. RESULTS: During the analysis period (2000-2019), the average incidence rate/year of HAV cases was 14.7 (5.4-21.5) per 100,000 inhabitants. Children 1-9 years of age (YoA) had the highest average incidence rate/year with 47.8 (14.7-74.5). The average hospitalization rate/year due to HAV infection was 5.8% (2.9-9.6%). Although the highest burden of HAV continued to be in children (1-9 YoA), an increase in incidence and hospitalizations (with complications) in older age groups (≥ 10-64 YoA) was observed. The annual average fatality rate was estimated to be 0.44% (0.26-0.83%) of which 28.8% of deaths were concentrated in adults ≥ 65 YoA. The total direct costs of medical attention due to HAV and related complications were estimated at $382 million Mexican pesos. CONCLUSION: The overall results suggest an uptrend in HAV infections in adolescents/adults compared to children in Mexico. Therefore, as the overall incidence risk of HAV infection decreases, the mean age of infection increases. This consequently increases the risk of severity and complications in older age groups, thus increasing the demand for healthcare resources. Our findings provide evidence for including the inactivated HAV vaccine in the Mexican NIP.

Probability of consolidation constrains novel serotype emergence in dengue fever virus.

Since their first sequencing 40 years ago, Dengue virus (DENV) genotypes have shown extreme coherence regarding the serotype class they encode. Considering that DENV is a ribonucleic acid (RNA) virus with a high mutation rate, this behavior is intriguing. Here, we explore the effect of various parameters on likelihood of new serotype emergence. In order to determine the time scales of such an event, we used a Timed Markov Transmission Model to explore the influences of sylvatic versus peri-urban transmission, viral mutation rate, and vertical transmission on the probabilities of novel serotype emergence. We found that around 1 000 years are required for a new serotype to emerge, consistent with phylogenetic analysis of extant dengue serotypes. Furthermore, we show that likelihood of establishing chains of mosquito-human-mosquito infection, known as consolidation, is the primary factor which constrains novel serotype emergence. Our work illustrates the restrictions on and provides a mechanistic explanation for the low probability of novel dengue virus serotype emergence and the low number of observed DENV serotypes.

Pertussis infant morbidity and mortality trends after universal maternal immunisation in Mexico: An ecological database study with time-series analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Pertussis is a highly contagious infectious disease caused by Bordetella pertussis and a leading cause of infant mortality in Mexico. The Tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine was recommended in the Mexican Immunisation Programme for pregnant women in 2013. We describe pertussis morbidity and mortality trends in infants ≤2 and ≤12 months of age), before and after maternal Tdap immunisation implementation in Mexico. METHODS: An ecological retrospective database study was performed in the Mexican National and Workers Social Security Institutes (IMSS; ISSSTE). Data were collected on confirmed pertussis ambulatory cases, hospitalisations, and deaths, plus vaccination coverage (Tdap; Diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis [DTPa]) and population estimates. Descriptive and regression time-trend analyses were performed for pertussis morbidity and mortality in infants between pre- (2010-2012) and post- (2014-2018) maternal Tdap immunisation periods. RESULTS: Around 1 million infants a year are covered in IMSS/ISSSTE databases. Average full primary infant DTPa vaccine coverage was 71.4%-72.7% nationally. Since 2013, annual maternal Tdap vaccine coverage ranged from 70%-93%. Between 2010-2018, 2,024 pertussis cases, 2,518 hospitalisations and 71 deaths were reported in infants. Among infants 0-2 months old (maternal immunisation target group), there was a significant decrease, post-maternal vaccination, in pertussis incidence (49.9%, p < 0.000), hospitalisation (70.0%, p < 0.000) and mortality (82.4%, p = 0.003). In infants 0-12 months old, pertussis hospitalisations (28.9%, p = 0.000) and mortality (36.2%, p = 0.059) decreased, but incidence increased (61.8%, p = 0.000). CONCLUSION: After maternal immunisation was implemented, there was a decreasing trend in incidence, hospitalisation and death due to pertussis in infants 0-2 months old. Increases in incidence reported in 0-12-month-olds are likely due to major changes in diagnosis and reporting introduced during the study period as well as limited vaccination and health coverage in some states. These findings confirm the important contribution of the Tdap maternal immunisation programme in reducing pertussis disease burden, particularly severe disease, among infants in Mexico.

Vaccine coverage and compliance in Mexico with the two-dose and three-dose rotavirus vaccines.

Worldwide, rotavirus infection has been a leading cause of severe diarrhea morbidity and mortality. Two rotavirus vaccines have been used in the National Immunization Program (NIP) in Mexico; two-dose Rotarix from 2006 to 2011 and three-dose RotaTeq since 2011. This study assessed coverage (receiving at least one dose or full dose series) in eligible infants, compliance (% completing dose series and % completing series on schedule) in eligible infants vaccinated with Rotarix (2010) versus RotaTeq (2012), using Mexican Social Security Institute data nationwide and by regions. In 2010, 80.7% received at least one dose of Rotarix, 75.6% received both doses and 57.0% received both doses on schedule. In 2012, 85.7% received at least one dose of RotaTeq, 61.0% received all three doses and 43.2% received all three doses on schedule. More eligible infants received all doses with Rotarix versus RotaTeq (p < 0.001). Among infants vaccinated with Rotarix versus RotaTeq, 93.7% versus 71.1% completed full series (p < 0.001), and 75.5% versus 70.9% completed full series on schedule (p = 0.105), respectively. The full series coverage and compliance decreased in all regions with RotaTeq compared with Rotarix. In conclusion, rotavirus vaccination has successfully reduced morbidity and mortality in children under 5 years in Mexico. This study found significant differences in full series coverage and compliance among infants and a higher proportion of completed scheduled at an earlier age in Mexico when comparing a two-dose vaccine in 2010 with a three-dose vaccine in 2012. Such differences might need to be taken into consideration to maximize NIP benefits, including early protection of the rotavirus vaccination program.

Cost-Effectiveness of Blood Donation Screening for Trypanosoma cruzi in Mexico.

An estimated 2 million inhabitants are infected with Chagas disease in Mexico, with highest prevalence coinciding with highest demographic density in the southern half of the country. After vector-borne transmission, Trypanosoma cruzi is principally transmitted to humans via blood transfusion. Despite initiation of serological screening of blood donations or donors for T. cruzi since 1990 in most Latin American countries, Mexico only finally included mandatory serological screening nationwide in official Norms in 2012. Most recent regulatory changes and segmented blood services in Mexico may affect compliance of mandatory screening guidelines. The objective of this study was to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for total compliance of current guidelines from both Mexican primary healthcare and regular salaried worker health service institutions: the Secretary of Health and the Mexican Institute for Social Security. We developed a bi-modular model to analyze compliance using a decision tree for the most common screening algorithms for each health institution, and a Markov transition model for the natural history of illness and care. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio based on life-years gained is US$ 383 for the Secretary of Health, while the cost for an additional life-year gained is US$ 463 for the Social Security Institute. The results of the present study suggest that due to incomplete compliance of Mexico's national legislation during 2013 and 2014, the MoH has failed to confirm 15,162 T. cruzi infections, has not prevented 2,347 avoidable infections, and has lost 333,483 life-years. Although there is a vast difference in T. cruzi prevalence between Bolivia and Mexico, Bolivia established mandatory blood screening for T.cruzi in 1996 and until 2002 detected and discarded 11,489 T. cruzi -infected blood units and prevented 2,879 potential infections with their transfusion blood screening program. In the first two years of Mexico's mandated program, the two primary institutions failed to prevent due to incomplete compliance more potential infections than those gained from the first five years of Bolivia's program. Full regulatory compliance should be clearly understood as mandatory for the sake of blood security, and its monitoring and analysis in Mexico should be part of the health authority's responsibility.

Opportunity cost for early treatment of Chagas disease in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Given current neglect for Chagas disease in public health programs in Mexico, future healthcare and economic development policies will need a more robust model to analyze costs and impacts of timely clinical attention of infected populations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A Markov decision model was constructed to simulate the natural history of a Chagas disease cohort in Mexico and to project the associated short and long-term clinical outcomes and corresponding costs. The lifetime cost for a timely diagnosed and treated Chagas disease patient is US$ 10,160, while the cost for an undiagnosed individual is US$ 11,877. The cost of a diagnosed and treated case increases 24-fold from early acute to indeterminate stage. The major cost component for lifetime cost was working days lost, between 44% and 75%, depending on the program scenario for timely diagnosis and treatment. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In the long term, it is cheaper to diagnose and treat chagasic patients early, instead of doing nothing. This finding by itself argues for the need to shift current policy, in order to prioritize and attend this neglected disease for the benefit of social and economic development, which implies including treatment drugs in the national formularies. Present results are even more relevant, if one considers that timely diagnosis and treatment can arrest clinical progression and enhance a chronic patient's quality of life.

[Cost-effectiveness of breast cancer screening policies in Mexico]. / Costo-efectividad de políticas para el tamizaje de cáncer de mama en México.

OBJECTIVE: Generate cost-effectiveness information to allow policy makers optimize breast cancer (BC) policy in Mexico. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We constructed a Markov model that incorporates four interrelated processes of the disease: the natural history; detection using mammography; treatment; and other competing-causes mortality, according to which 13 different strategies were modeled. RESULTS: Strategies (starting age, % of coverage, frequency in years)= (48, 25, 2), (40, 50, 2) and (40, 50, 1) constituted the optimal method for expanding the BC program, yielding 75.3, 116.4 and 171.1 thousand pesos per life-year saved, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The strategies included in the optimal method for expanding the program produce a cost per life-year saved of less than two times the GNP per capita and hence are cost-effective according to WHO Commission on Macroeconomics and Health criteria.

Costo-efectividad de políticas para el tamizaje de cáncer de mama en México / Cost-effectiveness of breast cancer screening policies in Mexico

OBJETIVO: Generar información de costo-efectividad para optimizar las políticas para el cáncer de mama (CaMa) en México. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se construyó un modelo Markov que incorpora cuatro procesos interrelacionados del CaMa: la evolución natural, la detección con mamografía, el tratamiento y la dinámica de mortalidad por otras causas, a partir del cual se modelaron 13 estrategias. RESULTADOS: Las estrategias (edad de inicio, porcentaje de cobertura, periodicidad en años)= (48, 25, 2), (40, 50, 2) y (40, 50, 1) representan la ruta óptima de expansión del programa, con un costo por año de vida ganado de 75.3, 116.4 y 171.1 (miles de pesos), respectivamente. CONCLUSIONES: Las estrategias sobre la vía óptima de expansión del programa producen una razón de costo por año de vida ganado menor a dos veces el PIB per cápita, por lo que se encuentran dentro de lo que se considera una intervención costo-efectiva según los criterios de la OMS.

OBJECTIVE: Generate cost-effectiveness information to allow policy makers optimize breast cancer (BC) policy in Mexico. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We constructed a Markov model that incorporates four interrelated processes of the disease: the natural history; detection using mammography; treatment; and other competing-causes mortality, according to which 13 different strategies were modeled. RESULTS: Strategies (starting age, percent of coverage, frequency in years)= (48, 25, 2), (40, 50, 2) and (40, 50, 1) constituted the optimal method for expanding the BC program, yielding 75.3, 116.4 and 171.1 thousand pesos per life-year saved, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The strategies included in the optimal method for expanding the program produce a cost per life-year saved of less than two times the GNP per capita and hence are cost-effective according to WHO Commission on Macroeconomics and Health criteria.