Cost Effectiveness of Dapagliflozin for Heart Failure Across the Spectrum of Ejection Fraction: An Economic Evaluation Based on Pooled, Individual Participant Data From the DELIVER and DAPA-HF Trials.

BACKGROUND: The sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors are guideline-recommended to treat heart failure across the spectrum of left ventricular ejection fraction; however, economic evaluations of adding sodium glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors to standard of care in chronic heart failure across a broad left ventricular ejection fraction range are lacking. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a US-based cost-effectiveness analysis of dapagliflozin added to standard of care in a chronic heart failure population using pooled, participant data from the DAPA-HF (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure) and DELIVER (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure) trials. The 3-state Markov model used estimates of transitional probabilities, effectiveness of dapagliflozin, and utilities from the pooled trials. Costs estimates were obtained from published sources, including published rebates in dapagliflozin cost. Adding dapagliflozin to standard of care was estimated to produce an additional 0.53 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) compared with standard of care alone. Incremental cost effectiveness ratios were $85 554/QALY when using the publicly reported full (undiscounted) Medicare cost ($515/month) and $40 081/QALY, at a published nearly 50% rebate ($263/month). The addition of dapagliflozin to standard of care would be of at least intermediate value (<$150 000/QALY) at a cost of <$872.58/month, of high value (<$50 000/QALY) at <$317.66/month, and cost saving at <$40.25/month. Dapagliflozin was of at least intermediate value in 92% of simulations when using the full (undiscounted) Medicare list cost in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Cost effectiveness was most sensitive to the dapagliflozin cost and the effect on cardiovascular death. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of dapagliflozin to standard of care in patients with heart failure across the spectrum of ejection fraction was at least of intermediate value at the undiscounted Medicare cost and may be potentially of higher value on the basis of the level of discount, rebates, and price negotiations offered. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifiers: NCT01035255 & NCT01920711.

Risk Assessment of Kidney Disease Progression and Efficacy of SGLT2 Inhibition in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a risk assessment tool to identify patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) at higher risk for kidney disease progression and who might benefit more from sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibition. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 41,204 patients with T2D from four Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) clinical trials were divided into derivation (70%) and validation cohorts (30%). Candidate predictors of kidney disease progression (composite of sustained ≥40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR], end-stage kidney disease, or kidney death) were selected with multivariable Cox regression. Efficacy of dapagliflozin was assessed by risk categories (low: <0.5%; intermediate: 0.5 to <2%; high: ≥2%) in Dapagliflozin Effect on Cardiovascular Events (DECLARE)-TIMI 58. RESULTS: There were 695 events over a median follow-up of 2.4 years. The final model comprised eight independent predictors of kidney disease progression: atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure, systolic blood pressure, T2D duration, glycated hemoglobin, eGFR, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and hemoglobin. The c-indices were 0.798 (95% CI, 0.774-0.821) and 0.798 (95% CI, 0.765-0.831) in the derivation and validation cohort, respectively. The calibration plot slope (deciles of predicted vs. observed risk) was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.93-1.04) in the validation cohort. Whereas relative risk reductions with dapagliflozin did not differ across risk categories, there was greater absolute risk reduction in patients with higher baseline risk, with a 3.5% absolute risk reduction in kidney disease progression at 4 years in the highest risk group (≥1%/year). Results were similar with the 2022 Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium risk prediction model. CONCLUSIONS: Risk models for kidney disease progression can be applied in patients with T2D to stratify risk and identify those who experience a greater magnitude of benefit from SGLT2 inhibition.

Assessment of Atherothrombotic Risk in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

BACKGROUND: Risk of atherothrombotic events is not uniform in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Tailored risk assessment may help guide selection of pharmacotherapies for cardiovascular primary and secondary prevention. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to develop a risk model for atherothrombosis in patients with T2DM. METHODS: We developed and validated a risk model for myocardial infarction (MI) or ischemic stroke (IS) in a pooled cohort of 42,181 patients with T2DM from 4 TIMI (Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction) clinical trial cohorts. Candidate variables were assessed with multivariable Cox regression, and independent variables (P < 0.05) were retained in the final model. Discrimination and calibration were assessed. Treatment interactions with dapagliflozin (sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor) and evolocumab (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitor) were explored in the DECLARE-TIMI 58 (Dapagliflozin Effect on CardiovascuLAR Events-Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction 58) and FOURIER (Further Cardiovascular Outcomes Research with PCSK9 Inhibition in Subjects with Elevated Risk) trials, respectively. RESULTS: Sixteen variables were independent predictors of MI or IS. The model identified a >8-fold gradient of MI or IS rates between the top vs bottom risk quintiles in the validation cohort (3-year Kaplan-Meier rate: 14.9% vs 1.4%; P < 0.0001). C-indexes were 0.704 and 0.706 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The model was well-calibrated in both primary and secondary prevention. Absolute reduction in the rates of MI or IS tended to be greater in patients with higher baseline predicted risk for both dapagliflozin (absolute risk reduction: 2.1% vs 0.2%) and evolocumab (absolute risk reduction: 3.2% vs 1.0%). CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a risk score for atherothrombotic events, leveraging 16 routinely assessed clinical variables in patients with T2DM. The score has the potential to improve risk assessment and inform clinical decision-making.

Serial Assessment of High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin and the Effect of Dapagliflozin in Patients With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction: An Analysis of the DAPA-HF Trial.

BACKGROUND: Circulating high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hsTnT) predominantly reflects myocardial injury, and higher levels are associated with a higher risk of worsening heart failure and death in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. Less is known about the prognostic significance of changes in hsTnT over time, the effects of dapagliflozin on clinical outcomes in relation to baseline hsTnT levels, and the effect of dapagliflozin on hsTnT levels. METHODS: DAPA-HF (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure) was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of dapagliflozin (10 mg daily) in patients with New York Heart Association class II to IV symptoms and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40% (median follow-up, 18.2 months). hsTnT (Roche Diagnostics) was measured at baseline in 3112 patients and at 1 year in 2506 patients. The primary end point was adjudicated worsening heart failure or cardiovascular death. Clinical end points were analyzed according to baseline hsTnT and change in hsTnT from baseline to 1 year. Comparative treatment effects on clinical end points with dapagliflozin versus placebo were assessed by baseline hsTnT. The effect of dapagliflozin on hsTnT was explored. RESULTS: Median baseline hsTnT concentration was 20.0 (25th-75th percentile, 13.7-30.2) ng/L. Over 1 year, 67.9% of patients had a ≥10% relative increase or decrease in hsTnT concentrations, and 43.5% had a ≥20% relative change. A stepwise gradient of higher risk for the primary end point was observed across increasing quartiles of baseline hsTnT concentration (adjusted hazard ratio Q4 versus Q1, 3.44 [95% CI, 2.46-4.82]). Relative and absolute increases in hsTnT over 1 year were associated with higher subsequent risk of the primary end point. The relative reduction in the primary end point with dapagliflozin was consistent across quartiles of baseline hsTnT (P-interaction=0.55), but patients in the top quartile tended to have the greatest absolute risk reduction (absolute risk difference, 7.5% [95% CI, 1.0%-14.0%]). Dapagliflozin tended to attenuate the increase in hsTnT over time compared with placebo (relative least squares mean reduction, -3% [-6% to 0%]; P=0.076). CONCLUSIONS: Higher baseline hsTnT and greater increase in hsTnT over 1 year are associated with worse clinical outcomes. Dapagliflozin consistently reduced the risk of the primary end point, irrespective of baseline hsTnT levels. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03036124.

Can machine learning bring cardiovascular risk assessment to the next level? A methodological study using FOURIER trial data.

Aims: Through this proof of concept, we studied the potential added value of machine learning (ML) methods in building cardiovascular risk scores from structured data and the conditions under which they outperform linear statistical models. Methods and results: Relying on extensive cardiovascular clinical data from FOURIER, a randomized clinical trial to test for evolocumab efficacy, we compared linear models, neural networks, random forest, and gradient boosting machines for predicting the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events. To study the relative strengths of each method, we extended the comparison to restricted subsets of the full FOURIER dataset, limiting either the number of available patients or the number of their characteristics. When using all the 428 covariates available in the dataset, ML methods significantly (c-index 0.67, P-value 2e-5) outperformed linear models built from the same variables (c-index 0.62), as well as a reference cardiovascular risk score based on only 10 variables (c-index 0.60). We showed that gradient boosting-the best performing model in our setting-requires fewer patients and significantly outperforms linear models when using large numbers of variables. On the other hand, we illustrate how linear models suffer from being trained on too many variables, thus requiring a more careful prior selection. These ML methods proved to consistently improve risk assessment, to be interpretable despite their complexity and to help identify the minimal set of covariates necessary to achieve top performance. Conclusion: In the field of secondary cardiovascular events prevention, given the increased availability of extensive electronic health records, ML methods could open the door to more powerful tools for patient risk stratification and treatment allocation strategies.

Comparison of Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Assessment by Martin/Hopkins Estimation, Friedewald Estimation, and Preparative Ultracentrifugation: Insights From the FOURIER Trial.

Importance: Recent studies have shown that Friedewald underestimates low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) at lower levels, which could result in undertreatment of high-risk patients. A novel method (Martin/Hopkins) using a patient-specific conversion factor provides more accurate LDL-C levels. However, this method has not been tested in proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitor-treated patients. Objective: To investigate accuracy of 2 different methods for estimating LDL-C levels (Martin/Hopkins and Friedewald) compared with gold standard preparative ultracentrifugation (PUC) in patients with low LDL-C levels in the Further Cardiovascular Outcomes Research With PCSK9 Inhibition in Patients With Elevated Risk (FOURIER) trial. Design, Setting, and Participants: The FOURIER trial was a randomized clinical trial of evolocumab vs placebo added to statin therapy in 27 564 patients with stable atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. The patients' LDL-C levels were assessed at baseline, 4 weeks, 12 weeks, 24 weeks, and every 24 weeks thereafter, and measured directly by PUC when the level was less than 40 mg/dL per the Friedewald method (calculated as non-HDL-C level - triglycerides/5). In the Martin/Hopkins method, patient-specific ratios of triglycerides to very low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (VLDL-C) ratios were determined and used to estimate VLDL-C, which was subtracted from the non-HDL-C level to obtain the LDL-C level. Main Outcomes and Measures: Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol calculated by the Friedewald and Martin/Hopkins methods, with PUC as the reference method. Results: For this analysis, the mean (SD) age was 62.7 (9.0) years; 2885 of the 12 742 patients were women (22.6%). A total of 56 624 observations from 12 742 patients had Friedewald, Martin/Hopkins, and PUC LDL-C measurements. The median difference from PUC LDL-C levels for Martin/Hopkins LDL-C levels was -2 mg/dL (interquartile range [IQR], -4 to 1 mg/dL) and for Friedewald LDL-C levels was -4 mg/dL (IQR, -8 to -1 mg/dL; P < .001). Overall, 22.9% of Martin/Hopkins LDL-C values were more than 5 mg/dL different than PUC values, and 2.6% were more than 10 mg/dL different than PUC levels. These were significantly less than respective proportions with Friedewald estimation (40.1% and 13.3%; P < .001), mainly because of underestimation by the Friedewald method. The correlation with PUC LDL-C was significantly higher for Martin/Hopkins vs Friedewald (ρ, 0.918 [95% CI 0.916-0.919] vs ρ, 0.867 [0.865-0.869], P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In patients achieving low LDL-C with PCSK9 inhibition, the Martin/Hopkins method for LDL-C estimation more closely approximates gold standard PUC than Friedewald estimation does. The Martin/Hopkins method may prevent undertreatment because of LDL-C underestimation by the Friedewald method. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01764633.

Cost-effectiveness of Evolocumab Therapy for Reducing Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.

Importance: The proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitor evolocumab has been demonstrated to reduce the composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death in patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. To our knowledge, long-term cost-effectiveness of this therapy has not been evaluated using clinical trial efficacy data. Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of evolocumab in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease when added to standard background therapy. Design, Setting, and Participants: A Markov cohort state-transition model was used, integrating US population-specific demographics, risk factors, background therapy, and event rates along with trial-based event risk reduction. Costs, including price of drug, utilities, and transitional probabilities, were included from published sources. Exposures: Addition of evolocumab to standard background therapy including statins. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cardiovascular events including myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke and cardiovascular death, quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and net value-based price. Results: In the base case, using US clinical practice patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels of at least 70 mg/dL (to convert to millimoles per liter, multiply by 0.0259) and an annual events rate of 6.4 per 100 patient-years, evolocumab was associated with increased cost and improved QALY: incremental cost, $105 398; incremental QALY, 0.39, with an ICER of $268 637 per QALY gained ($165 689 with discounted price of $10 311 based on mean rebate of 29% for branded pharmaceuticals). Sensitivity and scenario analyses demonstrated ICERs ranging from $100 193 to $488 642 per QALY, with ICER of $413 579 per QALY for trial patient characteristics and event rate of 4.2 per 100 patient-years ($270 192 with discounted price of $10 311) and $483 800 if no cardiovascular mortality reduction emerges. Evolocumab treatment exceeded $150 000 per QALY in most scenarios but would meet this threshold at an annual net price of $9669 ($6780 for the trial participants) or with the discounted net price of $10 311 in patients with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels of at least 80 mg/dL. Conclusions and Relevance: At its current list price of $14 523, the addition of evolocumab to standard background therapy in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease exceeds generally accepted cost-effectiveness thresholds. To achieve an ICER of $150 000 per QALY, the annual net price would need to be substantially lower ($9669 for US clinical practice and $6780 for trial participants), or a higher-risk population would need to be treated.

Cost-Effectiveness of Long-Term Ticagrelor in Patients With Prior Myocardial Infarction: Results From the PEGASUS-TIMI 54 Trial.

BACKGROUND: In patients with a myocardial infarction (MI) 1 to 3 years earlier, treatment with ticagrelor + low-dose aspirin (ASA) reduces the risk of cardiovascular (CV) death, MI, or stroke compared with low-dose aspirin alone, but at an increased risk of major bleeding. OBJECTIVES: The authors evaluated cost-effectiveness of ticagrelor + low-dose ASA in patients with prior MI within the prior 3 years. METHODS: The authors performed a prospective economic substudy alongside the PEGASUS-TIMI 54 (Prevention of Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Prior Heart Attack Using Ticagrelor Compared to Placebo on a Background of Aspirin-Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction 54) trial, which randomized 21,162 patients to ASA alone, ticagrelor 60 mg twice daily + low-dose ASA, or ticagrelor 90 mg twice daily + low-dose ASA. Medical resource use data were collected over a median 33-month follow-up. Costs were assessed from the U.S. health care system perspective. In-trial data relating to survival, utility, and costs were combined with lifetime projections to evaluate lifetime cost-effectiveness of the Food and Drug Administration-approved lower-dose ticagrelor regimen (60 mg twice daily). RESULTS: Hospitalization costs were similar for ticagrelor 60 mg and placebo ($2,262 vs. $2,333; 95% confidence interval for difference -$303 to $163; p = 0.54); after inclusion of a daily ticagrelor 60 mg cost of $10.52, total costs were higher for ticagrelor ($10,016 vs. $2,333; 95% CI: $7,441 to $7,930; p < 0.001). In-trial quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were similar (2.28 vs. 2.27; p = 0.34). Over a lifetime horizon, ticagrelor was associated with QALY gains of 0.078 and incremental costs of $7,435, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $94,917/QALY gained. Several high-risk groups had more favorable ICERs, including patients with >1 prior MI, multivessel disease, diabetes, renal dysfunction (all with ICERs $50,000 to $70,000/QALY gained), patients age <75 years (ICER = $44,779/QALY gained), and patients with peripheral artery disease (ICER = $13,427/QALY gained). CONCLUSIONS: For patients with a history of MI >1 year previously, long-term treatment with ticagrelor 60 mg + low-dose ASA yields a cost-effectiveness ratio suggesting intermediate value based on current guidelines. Ticagrelor appears to provide higher value for patients in several recognized high-risk subgroups. (Prevention of Cardiovascular Events [e.g., Death From Heart or Vascular Disease, Heart Attack, or Stroke] in Patients With Prior Heart Attack Using Ticagrelor Compared to Placebo on a Background of Aspirin [PEGASUS]; NCT01225562).

Lipoprotein(a) for risk assessment in patients with established coronary artery disease.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to assess the prognostic utility of lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] in individuals with coronary artery disease (CAD). BACKGROUND: Data regarding an association between Lp(a) and cardiovascular (CV) risk in secondary prevention populations are sparse. METHODS: Plasma Lp(a) was measured in 6,708 subjects with CAD from 3 studies; data were then combined with 8 previously published studies for a total of 18,978 subjects. RESULTS: Across the 3 studies, increasing levels of Lp(a) were not associated with the risk of CV events when modeled as a continuous variable (odds ratio [OR]: 1.03 per log-transformed SD, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.96 to 1.11) or by quintile (Q5:Q1 OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.83 to 1.34). When data were combined with previously published studies of Lp(a) in secondary prevention, subjects with Lp(a) levels in the highest quantile were at increased risk of CV events (OR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.15 to 1.71), but with significant between-study heterogeneity (p = 0.001). When stratified on the basis of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, the association between Lp(a) and CV events was significant in studies in which average LDL cholesterol was ≥130 mg/dl (OR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.23 to 1.73, p < 0.001), whereas this relationship did not achieve statistical significance for studies with an average LDL cholesterol <130 mg/dl (OR: 1.20, 95% CI: 0.90 to 1.60, p = 0.21). CONCLUSIONS: Lp(a) is significantly associated with the risk of CV events in patients with established CAD; however, there exists marked heterogeneity across trials. In particular, the prognostic value of Lp(a) in patients with low cholesterol levels remains unclear.

AMG 145, a monoclonal antibody against PCSK9, facilitates achievement of national cholesterol education program-adult treatment panel III low-density lipoprotein cholesterol goals among high-risk patients: an analysis from the LAPLACE-TIMI 57 trial (LDL-C assessment with PCSK9 monoclonal antibody inhibition combined with statin thErapy-thrombolysis in myocardial infarction 57).

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to define the ability of AMG 145, a monoclonal antibody directed against proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin type 9 (PCSK9), to enable subjects at high risk for major adverse cardiovascular events to achieve National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III) parameters for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and other lipid goals. BACKGROUND: Many patients at high risk for adverse cardiovascular events are unable to achieve the NCEP-ATP III LDL-C goal of <70 mg/dl, even with high-potency statin therapy. METHODS: In 282 subjects from the LAPLACE-TIMI 57 (LDL-C Assessment with PCSK9 monoclonaL Antibody Inhibition Combined With Statin thErapy-Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction 57) trial at high risk according to NCEP-ATP III criteria, we compared the proportion of subjects achieving the NCEP-ATP III recommended LDL-C goal of <70 mg/dl across treatment arms. Other outcomes included the triple goals of LDL-C <70 mg/dl, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) <100 mg/dl, and apolipoprotein B (ApoB) <80 mg/dl. RESULTS: During the dosing interval, more than 90% of subjects in both of the top dose groups every 2 weeks and every 4 weeks attained this lipid target over the dosing interval, with similar success rates for the triple lipid goal. CONCLUSIONS: PCSK9 inhibition with AMG 145 enables high-risk patients to achieve established lipid goals. If this therapy demonstrates efficacy for reducing cardiovascular events with a favorable safety profile in ongoing phase 3 trials, we believe it will have major public health implications.

AMG145, a monoclonal antibody against proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin type 9, significantly reduces lipoprotein(a) in hypercholesterolemic patients receiving statin therapy: an analysis from the LDL-C Assessment with Proprotein Convertase Subtilisin Kexin Type 9 Monoclonal Antibody Inhibition Combined with Statin Therapy (LAPLACE)-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) 57 trial.

BACKGROUND: Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is an emerging risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Currently, there are few available therapies to lower Lp(a). We sought to evaluate the impact of AMG145, a monoclonal antibody against proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin type 9 (PCSK9), on Lp(a). METHODS AND RESULTS: As part of the LDL-C Assessment With PCSK9 Monoclonal Antibody Inhibition Combined With Statin Therapy (LAPLACE)-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) 57 trial, 631 patients with hypercholesterolemia receiving statin therapy were randomized to receive AMG145 at 1 of 3 different doses every 2 weeks or 1 of 3 different doses every 4 weeks versus placebo. Lp(a) and other lipid parameters were measured at baseline and at week 12. Compared with placebo, AMG145 70 mg, 105 mg, and 140 mg every 2 weeks reduced Lp(a) at 12 weeks by 18%, 32%, and 32%, respectively (P<0.001 for each dose versus placebo). Likewise, AMG145 280 mg, 350 mg, and 420 mg every 4 weeks reduced Lp(a) by 18%, 23%, and 23%, respectively (P<0.001 for each dose versus placebo). The reduction in Lp(a) correlated with the reduction in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (ρ=0.33, P<0.001). The effect of AMG145 on Lp(a) was consistent regardless of age, sex, race, history of diabetes mellitus, and background statin regimen. Patients with higher levels of Lp(a) at baseline had larger absolute reductions but comparatively smaller percent reductions in Lp(a) with AMG145 compared with those with lower baseline Lp(a) values. CONCLUSIONS: AMG145 significantly reduces Lp(a), by up to 32%, among subjects with hypercholesterolemia receiving statin therapy, offering an additional, complementary benefit beyond robust low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction with regard to a patient's atherogenic lipid profile.

Diagnostic evaluation of the MRP-8/14 for the emergency assessment of chest pain.

Elevated levels of myeloid-related protein (MRP)-8/14 (S100A8/A9) are associated with first cardiovascular events in healthy individuals and worse prognosis in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The diagnostic utility of MRP-8/14 in patients presenting to the emergency room with symptoms concerning for ACS is uncertain. MRP-8/14 was measured in serial serum and plasma samples in a single center prospective cohort-study of patients presenting to the emergency room with non-traumatic chest pain concerning for ACS. Final diagnosis was adjudicated by an endpoint committee. Of patients with baseline MRP-8/14 results (n = 411), the median concentration in serum was 1.57 µg/ml (25th, 75th: 0.87, 2.68) and in plasma was 0.41 µg/ml (<0.4, 1.15) with only moderate correlation between serum and plasma (ρ = 0.40). A final diagnosis of MI was made in 106 (26%). Peak serum MRP-8/14 was higher in patients presenting with MI (p < 0.001). However, the overall diagnostic performance of MRP-8/14 was poor: sensitivity 28% (95% CI 20-38), specificity 82% (78-86), positive predictive value 36% (26-47), and negative predictive value 77% (72-81). The area under the ROC curve for diagnosis of MI with MRP-8/14 was 0.55 (95% CI 0.51-0.60) compared with 0.95 for cTnI. The diagnostic performance was not improved in early-presenters, patients with negative initial cTnI, or using later MRP-8/14 samples. Patients presenting with MI had elevated levels of serum MRP-8/14 compared to patients with non-cardiac chest pain. However, overall diagnostic performance of MRP-8/14 was poor and neither plasma nor serum MRP-8/14 offered diagnostic utility comparable to cardiac troponin.

Assessment of adiponectin and the risk of recurrent cardiovascular events in patients presenting with an acute coronary syndrome: observations from the Pravastatin Or atorVastatin Evaluation and Infection Trial-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 22 (PROVE IT-TIMI 22).

BACKGROUND: Adiponectin, an adipocytokine, is secreted by fatty cells and exerts a regulatory role in atherogenesis, modulating foam cell formation and cellular adhesion. In stable atherosclerosis, plasma adiponectin has been reported to be associated with both increased and decreased cardiovascular risk. Recent data have suggested a possible discordant adverse risk relationship in acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Therefore, we investigated the association between adiponectin and cardiovascular events in patients with ACS. METHODS: We measured plasma adiponectin in 3,931 patients stabilized following ACS and assessed the relationship with 2-year outcome. Patients were followed for all-cause death and major cardiovascular events. Using multivariable Cox regression, we adjusted for age, sex, race, ACS type, diabetes, smoking status, triglycerides, blood pressure, body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, treatment group (atorvastatin), B-type natriuretic peptide, and C-reactive protein. RESULTS: Adiponectin correlated negatively with age, diabetes, body mass index, and triglycerides (each, P < .001) but showed a positive relationship with the risk of death (P = .01), myocardial infarction (P = .01), and heart failure (P < .001). After adjusting for clinical risk factors, B-type natriuretic peptide, and C-reactive protein, adiponectin greater than the median (4,477 ng/mL) was independently associated with an increased risk of death or myocardial infarction (hazard ratio 1.58, 95% CI 1.10-2.28, P = .013) and congestive heart failure (hazard ratio 2.17, 95% CI 1.21-3.89, P = .010). CONCLUSIONS: Higher adiponectin concentrations early after ACS are independently associated with a higher risk of recurrent cardiovascular events. This finding is directionally opposite to that observed in patients at risk for atherosclerosis and reveals the need for investigation to elucidate differences in the pathobiology of adiponectin in stable versus unstable coronary artery disease.

Assessment of multiple cardiac biomarkers in non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes: observations from the MERLIN-TIMI 36 trial.

AIMS: The aim of this study is to simultaneously evaluate the incremental prognostic value of multiple cardiac biomarkers reflecting different underlying pathophysiological processes in a well-characterized population of patients with non-ST-segment acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). METHODS AND RESULTS: We measured cardiac troponin I (cTnI), N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), C-reactive protein, and myeloperodixase (MPO) among 4352 patients with NSTE-ACS in the MERLIN-TIMI 36 (Metabolic Efficiency With Ranolazine for Less Ischaemia in Non-ST Elevation Acute Coronary-Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction 36) trial and followed them for a mean of 343 days. When added individually to a multivariable model adjusted for clinical characteristics, the risk of cardiovascular (CV) death rose in a stepwise fashion with increasing quartiles of each biomarker, and when using their pre-defined cut-points [HR(adj) 2.71 (P < 0.001) for cTnI ≥0.03 ng/mL; HR(adj) 3.01 (P < 0.001) for NT-proBNP ≥400 pg/mL; HR(adj) 1.45 (P = 0.019) for high-sensitivity (hs) C-reactive protein ≥15 mg/L; and HR(adj) 1.49 (P = 0.006) for MPO ≥670 pmol/L]. After including all biomarkers, only NT-proBNP and cTnI were independently associated with CV death, and only cTnI with myocardial infarction (MI). The addition of NT-proBNP to a model adjusted for TIMI risk score incorporating cTnI significantly improved both the discrimination and re-classification of the model for CV death and heart failure (HF) while there was no such improvement after the addition of either MPO or hs-C-reactive protein. CONCLUSION: In this study of over 4300 patients presenting with NSTEACS, we found that both cTnI and NT-proBNP offer prognostic information beyond that achieved with clinical risk variables for CV death, MI, and HF. Myeloperoxidase and hs-C-reactive protein, while independently associated with some adverse CV outcomes, did not provide substantial incremental prognostic information when evaluated together with cTnI and NT-proBNP.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of short-term clopidogrel therapy for ST elevation myocardial infarction.

Clopidogrel improves outcomes in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and is recommended in the guidelines. We sought to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness of clopidogrel therapy in this patient population. We used primary patient-level resource use and clinical outcomes data from 3491 STEMI patients treated with fibrinolysis and either clopidogrel or placebo prior to a diagnostic coronary angiogram in the Clopidogrel as Adjunctive Reperfusion Therapy-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 28 (CLARITY-TIMI 28) trial. Costs for each patient were calculated based on diagnosis-related groups-specific Medicare reimbursement rates for all hospitalizations and the average wholesale price of clopidogrel. Cost per event prevented and cost per life year gained (LYG) were calculated using standard methods. The estimate of LYG due to clopidogrel therapy was based on recurrent myocardial infarction and death outcomes. The bootstrap method was used to produce bias-corrected confidence intervals for cost and efficacy estimates as well as the cost per LYG ratio. Total costs and resource use were not significantly different for the clopidogrel and placebo groups ($8128 vs. $8134), indicating that short-term clopidogrel therapy is an economically dominant treatment strategy. Even in a sensitivity analysis accounting for higher long-term medical costs due to greater life expectancy, clopidogrel remained under $6000 per LYG. Clopidogrel therapy was dominant in 35% of the bootstrap simulations and cost less than $50,000 per LYG in 67% of simulations. In conclusion, this analysis finds short-term clopidogrel therapy to be a highly economically attractive therapy, improving patient outcomes at no increase in costs.

Combined assessment of thrombolysis in myocardial infarction flow grade, myocardial perfusion grade, and ST-segment resolution to evaluate epicardial and myocardial reperfusion.

The restoration of epicardial and myocardial flow remains the primary goal of reperfusion therapy in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, but the optimal method to assess this goal has not been defined. Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction flow grade (TFG), myocardial perfusion grade (MPG), and ST-segment resolution (STRes) were combined to formulate a new measure of successful reperfusion in 649 patients who received pharmacologic reperfusion therapy in 3 recent phase II clinical trials of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Coronary angiograms and electrocardiograms were analyzed at 60 minutes (before any intervention) after the initiation of reperfusion therapy. The complete restoration of perfusion, or the "trifecta," defined as the presence of TFG 3, MPG 3, and complete (> or =70%) STRes, occurred in 117 patients (18%). The achievement of this trifecta was associated with low rates of 30-day mortality (0% vs 3.9%, p = 0.02), congestive heart failure (CHF) (0.9% vs 7.1%, p = 0.01), and the combination of death or CHF (0.9% vs 10.7%, p = 0.001). When the results were stratified with respect to subsequent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) from 60 to 120 minutes, attainment of the trifecta at 60 minutes remained a strong predictor of better clinical outcomes, particularly in those patients who underwent early PCI. The achievement of TFG 3, MPG 3, and complete STRes at 60 minutes after fibrinolytic therapy and before PCI occurred in only 18% of patients but was associated with very low rates of death and CHF at 30 days. This new end point is proposed to evaluate the success of reperfusion therapy in patients who undergo early angiography.

Differential expression of cardiac biomarkers by gender in patients with unstable angina/non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction: a TACTICS-TIMI 18 (Treat Angina with Aggrastat and determine Cost of Therapy with an Invasive or Conservative Strategy-Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction 18) substudy.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis of coronary artery disease in women is more difficult because of lower specificity of symptoms and diagnostic accuracy of noninvasive testing. We sought to examine the relationship between gender and cardiac biomarkers in patients with unstable angina (UA)/non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). METHODS AND RESULTS: In the TACTICS-TIMI 18, OPUS-TIMI 16, and TIMI 11 studies, baseline samples were analyzed in the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) biomarker core laboratory. We examined the relationship between gender and elevated biomarkers. Of 1865 patients from TACTICS-TIMI 18, 34% were women. Fewer women had elevated creatine kinase-MB or troponins, whereas more had elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein or brain natriuretic peptide. Presence of ST-segment deviation and TIMI risk scores were not significantly different. This pattern was confirmed in TIMI 11 and OPUS-TIMI 16. The prognostic value of the markers in TACTICS-TIMI 18 was similar in women and men. When a multimarker approach was examined, a greater proportion of high-risk women were identified. Marker-positive patients of both genders had improved outcome with an invasive strategy; however, marker-negative women appeared to have improved outcomes with a conservative strategy. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with UA/NSTEMI, there was a different pattern of presenting biomarkers. Men were more likely to have elevated creatine kinase-MB and troponins, whereas women were more likely to have elevated C-reactive protein and brain natriuretic peptide. This suggests that a multimarker approach may aid the initial risk assessment of UA/NSTEMI, especially in women. Further research is necessary to elucidate whether gender-related pathophysiological differences exist in presentation with acute coronary syndromes.