Flood hazard potential evaluation using decision tree state-of-the-art models.

Floods occur frequently in Romania and throughout the world and are one of the most devastating natural disasters that impact people's lives. Therefore, in order to reduce the potential damages, an accurate identification of surfaces susceptible to flood phenomena is mandatory. In this regard, the quantitative calculation of flood susceptibility has become a very popular practice in the scientific research. With the development of modern computerized methods such as geographic information system and machine learning models, and as a result of the possibility of combining them, the determination of areas susceptible to floods has become increasingly accurate, and the algorithms used are increasingly varied. Some of the most used and highly accurate machine learning algorithms are the decision tree models. Therefore, in the present study focusing on flood susceptibility zonation mapping in the Trotus River basin, the following algorithms were applied: forest by penalizing attribute-weights of evidence (forest-PA-WOE), best first decision tree-WOE, alternating decision tree-WOE, and logistic regression-WOE. The best performant, characterized by a maximum accuracy of 0.981, proved to be forest-PA-WOE, whereas in terms of flood exposure, an area of over 16.22% of the Trotus basin is exposed to high and very high floods susceptibility. The performances applied models in the present work are higher than the models applied in the previous studies in the same study area. Moreover, it should be noted that the accuracy of the models is similar with the accuracies of the decision tree models achieved in the studies focused on other areas across the world. Therefore, we can state that the models applied in the present research can be successfully used in by the researchers in other case studies. The findings of this research may substantially map the flood risk areas and further aid watershed managers in limiting and remediating flood damage in the data-scarce regions. Moreover, the results of this study can be a very useful for the hazard management and planning authorities.

Comparing Delphi-fuzzy AHP and fuzzy logic membership in soil fertility assessment: a study of an active Ganga Delta in Sundarban Biosphere Reserve, India.

The present study led to setting up a grid-based soil fertility map along with the best fit model in the coastal regions based on soil physical (coarse, sand, silt, clay, bulk density), chemical (CEC, pH, and soil organic carbon), topographic (elevation), and nutrient elements (P2O5, K2O, Na, Zn, B) in the active Ganga deltaic region of Sundarban Biosphere Reserve, India. Soil samples have been collected from 30 soil grids, and 0-15 cm soil depth was preferred for fertility analysis because most essential soil chemical and nutrient elements affecting soil fertility are concentrated in this depth range. We have used the fuzzy-AHP-Delphi (FAHP) and fuzzy logic-Delphi (FL) methods to determine the soil fertility zone. The rules are generated on the MATLAB interface in the text form; the words "IF," "THEN," "IS," "AND," etc., are used to complete the mode-building process. The weights and the desirable limits for each criterion were set based on the expert opinions and existing literature. The kriging interpolation method and natural break classification were used to represent the soil fertility maps into five classes, namely very high fertility (0.80-1.0), high fertility (0.60-0.80), moderate fertility (0.40-0.60), low fertility (0.20-0.40), and very low fertility (0.00-0.20) respectively. Both the models show that soil fertility is respectively higher near the Hooghly River bank. In many cases, the results obtained from FAHP and FL are quite similar but huge dissimilarity has been noticed in grid numbers G2, G3, G4, F1, and F2. Since the FAHP method has been used for the weight of each criterion, therefore, it only prefers those more important parameters over others. The overall accuracy of the soil fertility map was 82.16% for the fuzzy logic model, and 79.62% for the FAHP model and the kappa coefficient value was determined as 0.82 for the fuzzy logic model and 0.79 for the FAHP model. The soil fertility map was validated using the success rate curve under the ROC technique, and the area under curve (AUC) was calculated as 84.02% for the fuzzy logic model and 81.60% for the FAHP model. Since the standard limits for each criterion were known, therefore, fuzzy logic was found to best fit the model for analyzing soil fertility for each grid.

Assessment of suitable habitat of mangrove species for prioritizing restoration in coastal ecosystem of Sundarban Biosphere Reserve, India.

Mangrove forests being the abode of diverse fauna and flora are vital for healthy coastal ecosystems. These forests act as a carbon sequester and protection shield against floods, storms, and cyclones. The mangroves of the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (SBR), being one of the most dynamic and productive ecosystems in the world are in constant degradation. Hence, habitat suitability assessment of mangrove species is of paramount significance for its restoration and ecological benefits. The study aims to assess and prioritize restoration targets for 18 true mangrove species using 10 machine-learning algorithm-based habitat suitability models in the SBR. We identified the degraded mangrove areas between 1975 and 2020 by using Landsat images and field verification. The reserve was divided into 5609 grids using 1 km gird size for understanding the nature of mangrove degradation and collection of species occurrence data. A total of 36 parameters covering physical, environmental, soil, water, bio-climatic and disturbance aspects were chosen for habitat suitability assessment. Niche overlay function and grid-based habitat suitability classes were used to identify the species-based restoration prioritize grids. Habitat suitability analysis revealed that nearly half of the grids are highly suitable for mangrove habitat in the Reserve. Restoration within highly suitable mangrove grids could be achieved in the areas covered with less than 75 percent mangroves and lesser anthropogenic disturbance. The study calls for devising effective management strategies for monitoring and conserving the degraded mangrove cover. Monitoring and effective management strategies can help in maintaining and conserving the degraded mangrove cover. The model proves to be useful for assessing site suitability for restoring mangroves. The other geographical regions interested in assessing habitat suitability and prioritizing the restoration of mangroves may find the methodology adopted in this study effective.

Plastic waste footprint in the context of COVID-19: Reduction challenges and policy recommendations towards sustainable development goals.

The sudden surge in demand to use plastic products due to COVID-19 pandemic has increased plastic pollution. It has resulted into degradation of a broad range of habitats and ecosystems by destroying natural functions, water quality, and environmental sustainability. However, the government agencies, scientific communities, and the public, have started to give attention to this issue. So, in the present study, we used the correlation methods to check the relationship between COVID-19 affected population with the medical plastic waste (MPW) that has developed a conceptual model of the inter-linkages between the preventive measures of COVID-19 pandemic problems and the reduction challenges of plastic waste during and after pandemic scenarios. Emerging issues in the waste management during and after the COVID-19 are established by reviewing the literature, reports, policy briefs, and information from the website concerning COVID-19. Considering MPW management issues, we selected India as a case study to analyse the plastic waste footprint (PWF) due to COVID-19 pandemic. The correlation results showed COVID-19 affected population and MPW; COVID-19 affected population and PWF have a significant relationship (R2 = 0.60; Area under ROC curve 81.4%). It suggests an urgent need for plastic waste management initiatives. Moreover, substantial plastic products, human awareness, strict government regulations, and inclusive research can check plastic waste footprints in India and worldwide. Then discuss the specific pathways through which the immediate and long-term impacts operate and highlight the issues of hampering the sustainable development goals (SDGs) progress in India and beyond. Finally, call for coordinated assessment, support and appropriate short- and long-term mitigation and the policy measures of plastic waste problems during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

A district-level susceptibility and vulnerability assessment of the COVID-19 pandemic's footprint in India.

In this study, we trace the COVID-19 pandemic's footprint across India's districts. We identify its primary epicentres and the outbreak's imprint in India's hinterlands in four separate time-steps, signifying the different lockdown stages. We also identify hotspots and predict areas where the pandemic may spread next. Significant clusters in the country's western and northern parts pose risk, along with the threat of rising numbers in the east. We also perform epidemiological and socioeconomic susceptibility and vulnerability analyses, identifying resident populations that may be physiologically weaker, leading to a high incidence of cases and pinpoint regions that may report high fatalities due to ambient poor demographic and health-related factors. Districts with a high share of urban population and high population density face elevated COVID-19 risks. Aspirational districts have a higher magnitude of transmission and fatality. Discerning such locations can allow targeted resource allocation to combat the pandemic's next phase in India.

A systematic review on high conservation value assessment (HCVs): Challenges and framework for future research on conservation strategy.

Various scholars and research institutions have attempted to assess High Conservation Values (HCVs) using different methodologies and approaches. Various countries have developed toolkits to determine High Conservation Value Areas (HCVAs) according to their needs and conservation strategies but there is no global agreement on them. The present study attempts to review research papers and assessment reports from 1999 until 2018 on approaches and methodologies used for HCVs all over the world and provide a review into HCV research systematically, with due consideration to the linkages between Biodiversity, Ecosystem Services and Socio-Economic-Cultural values. We analyzed and examined the trends which are emerging and gaps present in HCV assessments evident from literature reviewed by experts, including the spatial spread of research, the evolving use and content of the concept, and consultation with stakeholders. A total, 80 articles were taken from Scopus and various reputed journals and reports using keywords like HCV and Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) to specifically focus on the application and evolution of the concept designed by FSC. The study was done in the hope to help in analyzing different HCV components as a conservation planning tool and guide new research in methodologies to fill the current gaps and enhance HCV assessments at different levels of application. The review result revealed that the HCV approach is an effective tool for delineating the conservation priority areas and reduce the uncontrolled extraction of natural resources. The findings display the focus area in HCV research that are surveying methods, fields of application and the dynamics between social and environmental components of HCV categories.

Assessment of advanced random forest and decision tree algorithms for modeling rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility in the Izu-Oshima Volcanic Island, Japan.

Landslides represent a part of the cascade of geological hazards in a wide range of geo-environments. In this study, we aim to investigate and compare the performance of two state-of-the-art machine learning models, i.e., decision tree (DT) and random forest (RF) approaches to model the massive rainfall-triggered landslide occurrences in the Izu-Oshima Volcanic Island, Japan at a regional scale. At first, a landslide inventory map is prepared consisting of 44 landslide polygons (10,444 pixels) from aerial photo-interpretation and field surveys. To estimate the robustness of the models, we randomly adapted two different samples (S1 and S2), comprising of both positive and negative cells (70% of total landslides - 7293 pixels) for training and remaining (30%-3151 pixels) for validation. Twelve causative factors including altitude, slope angle, slope aspect, plan curvature, total curvature, compound topographic index, stream power index, distance to drainage network, drainage density, distance to geological boundaries, lithology and cumulative rainfall were selected as predictors to implement the landslide susceptibility model. The area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves (AUC) and other statistical signifiers were used to verify the model accuracies. The result shows that the DT and RF models achieved remarkable predictive performance (AUC > 0.9), producing near accurate susceptibility maps. The overall efficiency of RF (AUC = 0.956) is found significantly higher than the DT (AUC = 0.928) results. Additionally, we noticed that the performance of RF for modeling landslide susceptibility is very robust even though the training and validation samples are altered. Considering the performances, we suggest that both RF and DT models can be used in other similar non-eruption-related landslide studies in the tephra-deposited rich volcanoes, as they are capable of rapidly generating accurate and stable LSM maps for risk mitigation, management practices, and decision-making. Moreover, the RF-based model is promising and enough to be recommended as a method to map regional landslide susceptibility.