From private incentives to public health need: rethinking research and development for pandemic preparedness.

Pandemic preparedness and response have relied primarily on market dynamics to drive development and availability of new health products. Building on calls for transformation, we propose a new value proposition that instead prioritises equity from the research and development (R&D) stage and that strengthens capacity to control outbreaks when and where they occur. Key elements include regional R&D hubs free to adapt well established technology platforms, and independent clinical trials networks working with researchers, regulators, and health authorities to better study questions of comparative benefit and real-world efficacy. Realising these changes requires a shift in emphasis: from pandemic response to outbreak control, from one-size-fits-all economies of scale to R&D and manufacture for local need, from de novo product development to last-mile innovation through adaptation of existing technologies, and from proprietary, competitive R&D to open science and financing for the common good that supports collective management and sharing of technology and know-how.

Performance assessment and validation of a plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) in support to yellow fever diagnostic and vaccine clinical trials.

Yellow fever (YF) virus is a mosquito-borne virus belonging to the Flaviviridae family that circulates in tropical and subtropical areas of Africa and South America. Despite the availability of an effective vaccine, YF remains a threat to travelers, residents of endemic areas, and unvaccinated populations. YF vaccination and natural infection both induce the production of neutralizing antibodies. Serological diagnostic methods detecting YF virus-specific antibodies demonstrate high levels of cross-reactivities with other flaviviruses. To date, the plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) is the most specific serological test for the differentiation of flavivirus infections and is considered the reference method for detecting YF neutralizing antibodies and assessing the protective immune response following vaccination. In this study, we developed and validated a YF PRNT. We optimized different parameters including cell concentration and virus-serum neutralization time period and then assessed the intra- and inter-assay precisions, dilutability, specificity, and lower limit of quantification (LLOQ) using international standard YF serum, sera from vaccinees and human specimens collected through YF surveillance. The YF PRNT has shown good robustness and 100% of intra-assay precision, 95.6% of inter-assay precision, 100% of specificity, 100% of LLOQ, and 95.3% of dilutability. The test is, therefore, suitable for use in the YF diagnostic as well as evaluation of the YF vaccine neutralizing antibody response and risk assessment studies.

The Future of Epidemic and Pandemic Vaccines to Serve Global Public Health Needs.

This Review initiates a wide-ranging discussion over 2023 by selecting and exploring core themes to be investigated more deeply in papers submitted to the Vaccines Special Issue on the "Future of Epidemic and Pandemic Vaccines to Serve Global Public Health Needs". To tackle the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, an acceleration of vaccine development across different technology platforms resulted in the emergency use authorization of multiple vaccines in less than a year. Despite this record speed, many limitations surfaced including unequal access to products and technologies, regulatory hurdles, restrictions on the flow of intellectual property needed to develop and manufacture vaccines, clinical trials challenges, development of vaccines that did not curtail or prevent transmission, unsustainable strategies for dealing with variants, and the distorted allocation of funding to favour dominant companies in affluent countries. Key to future epidemic and pandemic responses will be sustainable, global-public-health-driven vaccine development and manufacturing based on equitable access to platform technologies, decentralised and localised innovation, and multiple developers and manufacturers, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). There is talk of flexible, modular pandemic preparedness, of technology access pools based on non-exclusive global licensing agreements in exchange for fair compensation, of WHO-supported vaccine technology transfer hubs and spokes, and of the creation of vaccine prototypes ready for phase I/II trials, etc. However, all these concepts face extraordinary challenges shaped by current commercial incentives, the unwillingness of pharmaceutical companies and governments to share intellectual property and know-how, the precariousness of building capacity based solely on COVID-19 vaccines, the focus on large-scale manufacturing capacity rather than small-scale rapid-response innovation to stop outbreaks when and where they occur, and the inability of many resource-limited countries to afford next-generation vaccines for their national vaccine programmes. Once the current high subsidies are gone and interest has waned, sustaining vaccine innovation and manufacturing capability in interpandemic periods will require equitable access to vaccine innovation and manufacturing capabilities in all regions of the world based on many vaccines, not just "pandemic vaccines". Public and philanthropic investments will need to leverage enforceable commitments to share vaccines and critical technology so that countries everywhere can establish and scale up vaccine development and manufacturing capability. This will only happen if we question all prior assumptions and learn the lessons offered by the current pandemic. We invite submissions to the special issue, which we hope will help guide the world towards a global vaccine research, development, and manufacturing ecosystem that better balances and integrates scientific, clinical trial, regulatory, and commercial interests and puts global public health needs first.

A recombinase polymerase amplification assay for rapid detection of rabies virus.

Rabies is a generally fatal encephalitis caused by a negative-sense single-stranded RNA lyssavirus transmitted to humans mainly from dog bite. Despite the recommendation by WHO and OIE to use the direct immunofluorescence test as standard method, molecular diagnostic assays like reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) are increasing as a confirmatory method. However, both technologies are inaccessible in resource-limited settings. Moreover, the available point-of-need molecular assay is of poor detection limit for African strains. Herein, we developed a reverse transcription recombinase polymerase amplification (RT-RPA) assay as potential point-of-need diagnostic tool for rapid detection of various strains of rabies virus including locally isolated African strains. The sensitivity and specificity of the method was evaluated using a molecular RNA standard and different Rabies-related viruses belonging to the Rhabdoviridea family, respectively. The RABV-RPA performances were evaluated on isolates representative of the existing diversity and viral dilutions spiked in non-neural clinical specimen. The results were compared with RT-qPCR as a gold standard. The RABV-RPA detected down to 4 RNA molecules per reaction in 95% of the cases in less than 10 min. The RABV-RPA assay is highly specific as various RABV isolates were identified, but no amplification was observed for other member of the Rhabdoviridea family. The sample background did not affect the performance of the RABV-RPA as down to 11 RNA molecules were identified, which is similar to the RT-qPCR results. Our developed assay is suitable for use in low-resource settings as a promising alternative tool for ante-mortem rabies diagnosis in humans for facilitating timely control decisions.

Need for sustainable biobanking networks for COVID-19 and other diseases of epidemic potential.

Outbreaks of infectious diseases are occurring with increasing frequency and unpredictability. The rapid development and deployment of diagnostics that can accurately and quickly identify pathogens as part of epidemic preparedness is needed now for the COVID-19 pandemic. WHO has developed a global research and innovation forum to facilitate, accelerate, and deepen research collaboration among countries and funders. Great progress has been made in the past decade, but access to specimens remains a major barrier for the development and evaluation of needed quality diagnostics. We present a sustainable model for a global network of country-owned biobanks with standardised methods for collection, characterisation, and archiving of specimens and pathogens to facilitate and accelerate diagnostics development and evaluation for COVID-19 and other diseases of epidemic potential. The biobanking network should be run on the guiding principles of transparency, equitable access, ethics, and respect for national laws that support country ownership and sustainability. Adapting the Nagoya Protocol on Access to Genetic Resources and the Fair and Equitable Sharing of Benefits, sharing of specimens from national biobanks can be rewarded through mechanisms such as equitable access to diagnostics at negotiated prices. Such networks should be prepared for any pathogen of epidemic potential.

Eliminating yellow fever epidemics in Africa: Vaccine demand forecast and impact modelling.

BACKGROUND: To counter the increasing global risk of Yellow fever (YF), the World Health Organisation initiated the Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy. Estimating YF burden, as well as vaccine impact, while accounting for the features of urban YF transmission such as indirect benefits of vaccination, is key to informing this strategy. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed two model variants to estimate YF burden in sub-Saharan Africa, assuming all infections stem from either the sylvatic or the urban cycle of the disease. Both relied on an ecological niche model fitted to the local presence of any YF reported event in 34 African countries. We calibrated under-reporting using independent estimates of transmission intensity provided by 12 serological surveys performed in 11 countries. We calculated local numbers of YF infections, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost based on estimated transmission intensity while accounting for time-varying vaccination coverage. We estimated vaccine demand and impact of future preventive mass vaccination campaigns (PMVCs) according to various vaccination scenarios. Vaccination activities conducted in Africa between 2005 and 2017 were estimated to prevent from 3.3 (95% CI 1.2-7.7) to 6.1 (95% CI 2.4-13.2) millions of deaths over the lifetime of vaccinees, representing extreme scenarios of none or maximal herd effects, respectively. By prioritizing provinces based on the risk of urban YF transmission in future PMVCs, an average of 37.7 million annual doses for PMVCs over eight years would avert an estimated 9,900,000 (95% CI 7,000,000-13,400,000) infections and 480,000 (180,000-1,140,000) deaths over the lifetime of vaccinees, corresponding to 1.7 (0.7-4.1) deaths averted per 1,000 vaccine doses. CONCLUSIONS: By estimating YF burden and vaccine impact over a range of spatial and temporal scales, while accounting for the specificity of urban transmission, our model can be used to inform the current EYE strategy.

Medical countermeasures during the 2018 Ebola virus disease outbreak in the North Kivu and Ituri Provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a rapid genomic assessment.

BACKGROUND: The real-time generation of information about pathogen genomes has become a vital goal for transmission analysis and characterisation in rapid outbreak responses. In response to the recently established genomic capacity in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we explored the real-time generation of genomic information at the start of the 2018 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu Province. METHODS: We used targeted-enrichment sequencing to produce two coding-complete Ebola virus genomes 5 days after declaration of the EVD outbreak in North Kivu. Subsequent sequencing efforts yielded an additional 46 genomes. Genomic information was used to assess early transmission, medical countermeasures, and evolution of Ebola virus. FINDINGS: The genomic information demonstrated that the EVD outbreak in the North Kivu and Ituri Provinces was distinct from the 2018 EVD outbreak in Équateur Province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Primer and probe mismatches to Ebola virus were identified in silico for all deployed diagnostic PCR assays, with the exception of the Cepheid GeneXpert GP assay. INTERPRETATION: The first two coding-complete genomes provided actionable information in real-time for the deployment of the rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP Ebola virus envelope glycoprotein vaccine, available therapeutics, and sequence-based diagnostic assays. Based on the mutations identified in the Ebola virus surface glycoprotein (GP12) observed in all 48 genomes, deployed monoclonal antibody therapeutics (mAb114 and ZMapp) should be efficacious against the circulating Ebola virus variant. Rapid Ebola virus genomic characterisation should be included in routine EVD outbreak response procedures to ascertain efficacy of medical countermeasures. FUNDING: Defense Biological Product Assurance Office.

Cardiovascular screening in low-income settings using a novel 4-lead smartphone-based electrocardiograph (D-Heart®).

BACKGROUND: MHealth technologies are revolutionizing cardiovascular medicine. However, a low-cost, user-friendly smartphone-based electrocardiograph is still lacking. D-Heart® is a portable device that enables the acquisition of the ECG on multiple leads which streams via Bluetooth to any smartphone. Because of the potential impact of this technology in low-income settings, we determined the accuracy of D-Heart® tracings in the stratification of ECG morphological abnormalities, compared with 12-lead ECGs. METHODS: Consecutive African patients referred to the Ziguinchor Regional Hospital (Senegal) were enrolled (n=117; 69 males, age 39±11years). D-Heart® recordings (3 peripheral leads plus V5) were obtained immediately followed by 12 lead ECGs and were assessed blindly by 2 independent observers. Global burden of ECG abnormalities was defined by a semi-quantitative score based on the sum of 9 criteria, identifying four classes of increasing severity. RESULTS: D-Heart® and 12-lead ECG tracings were respectively classified as: normal: 72 (61%) vs 69 (59%); mildly abnormal: 42 (36%) vs 45 (38%); moderately abnormal: 3 (3%) vs 3 (3%). None had markedly abnormal tracings. Cohen's weighted kappa (kw) test demonstrated a concordance of 0,952 (p<0,001, agreement 98,72%). Concordance was high as well for the Romhilt-Estes score (kw=0,893; p<0,001 agreement 97,35%). PR and QRS intervals comparison with Bland-Altman method showed good accuracy for D-Heart® measurements (95% limit of agreement ±20ms for PR and ±10ms for QRS). CONCLUSIONS: D-Heart® proved effective and accurate stratification of ECG abnormalities comparable to the 12-lead electrocardiographs, thereby opening new perspectives for low-cost community cardiovascular screening programs in low-income settings.

Customized online and onsite training for rabies-control officers.

PROBLEM: It is difficult to deliver adequate training for people working in rabies control in low and middle-income countries. Popular e-learning systems for low-income settings are not well suited to developing and testing practical skills, including laboratory methods. APPROACH: We customized training in rabies control methods for African professionals and students from different disciplines. Trainees participated in preparatory online sessions, evaluations and exercises before and after a 12-day workshop. Trainees and mentors continued to interact through an online forum up to one year after the workshop. LOCAL SETTING: In Africa, 15,000 deaths from rabies occur each year due to a lack of awareness, inaccessibility of post-exposure prophylaxis, inadequate or absent canine rabies-control programmes and lack of governmental financial support. RELEVANT CHANGES: Thirty two trainees - working in health departments, hospitals, veterinary stations and research institutes - were selected to participate; 28 completed the course and passed the final evaluation. Pilot rabies investigation programmes were developed, and two manuscripts submitted for publication. An online forum facilitated further progress for a year after the workshop. LESSONS LEARNT: A combination of customized online and onsite training is suitable for teaching disease-control personnel in low-income countries. Participation in this course enabled trainees to advocate for the development of national disease-control strategies. Mentoring is needed to develop a strong network of experts in similar settings.

Yellow fever risk assessment in the Central African Republic.

BACKGROUND: Starting in 2008, the Central African Republic (CAR) experienced an unprecedented number of reported yellow fever (YF) cases. A risk assessment of YF virus (YFV) activity was conducted to estimate potential disease risk and vaccine needs. METHODS: A multistage cluster sampling design was used to sample humans, non-human primates, and mosquitoes in distinct ecologic zones. Humans and non-human primates were tested for YFV-specific antibodies; mosquitoes were tested for YFV RNA. RESULTS: Overall, 13.3% (125/938) of humans were found to have naturally-acquired YFV antibodies. Antibody levels were higher in zones in the southern and south central regions of CAR. All sampled non-human primates (n=56) were known YFV reservoirs; one tested positive for YFV antibodies. Several known YF vectors were identified including Aedes africanus, Ae. aegypti, Ae. luteocephalus, and Ae. simpsoni. Several more urban locations were found to have elevated Breateau and Container indices for Ae. aegypti. CONCLUSIONS: A country-wide assessment of YF risk found YFV to be endemic in CAR. The potential for future YF cases and outbreaks, however, varied by ecologic zone. Improved vaccination coverage through mass campaign and childhood immunization was recommended to mitigate the YF risk.

First international external quality assessment study on molecular and serological methods for yellow fever diagnosis.

OBJECTIVE: We describe an external quality assurance (EQA) study designed to assess the efficiency and accurateness of molecular and serological methods used by expert laboratories performing YF diagnosis. STUDY DESIGN: For molecular diagnosis evaluation, a panel was prepared of 14 human plasma samples containing specific RNA of different YFV strains (YFV-17D, YFV South American strain [Brazil], YFV IvoryC1999 strain), and specificity samples containing other flaviviruses and negative controls. For the serological panel, 13 human plasma samples with anti-YFV-specific antibodies against different strains of YFV (YFV-17D strain, YFV IvoryC1999 strain, and YFV Brazilian strain), as well as specificity and negative controls, were included. RESULTS: Thirty-six laboratories from Europe, the Americas, Middle East, and Africa participated in these EQA activities. Only 16% of the analyses reported met all evaluation criteria with optimal performance. Serial dilutions of YFV-17D showed that in general the methodologies reported provided a suitable sensitivity. Failures were mainly due to the inability to detect wild-type strains or the presence of false positives. Performance in the serological diagnosis varied, mainly depending on the methodology used. Anti-YFV IgM detection was not performed in 16% of the reports using IIF or ELISA techniques, although it is preferable for the diagnosis of YFV acute infections. A good sensitivity profile was achieved in general; however, in the detection of IgM antibodies a lack of sensitivity of anti-YFV antibodies against the vaccine strain 17D was observed, and of the anti-YFV IgG antibodies against a West African strain. Neutralization assays showed a very good performance; however, the unexpected presence of false positives underlined the need of improving the running protocols. CONCLUSION: This EQA provides information on each laboratory's efficacy of RT-PCR and serological YFV diagnosis techniques. The results indicate the need for improving serological and molecular diagnosis techniques and provide a follow-up of the diagnostic profiles.