Incorporating Russo-Ukrainian war in Brent crude oil price forecasting: A comparative analysis of ARIMA, TARMA and ENNReg models.

This article investigates the performance of three models - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Threshold Autoregressive Moving Average (TARMA) and Evidential Neural Network for Regression (ENNReg) - in forecasting the Brent crude oil price, a crucial economic variable with a significant impact on the global economy. With the increasing complexity of the price dynamics due to geopolitical factors such as the Russo-Ukrainian war, we examine the impact of incorporating information on the war on the forecasting accuracy of these models. Our analysis shows that incorporating the impact of the war can significantly improve the forecasting accuracy of the models, and the ENNReg model with the inclusion of the dummy variable outperforms the other models during the war period. Including the war variable has enhanced the forecasting accuracy of the ENNReg model by 0.11%. These results carry significant implications regarding policymakers, investors, and researchers interested in developing accurate forecasting models in the presence of geopolitical events such as the Russo-Ukrainian war. The results can be used by the governments of oil-exporting countries for budget policies.

Do financial development and renewable energy shocks matter for environmental quality: evidence from top 10 emitting emissions countries.

Creating a reliable energy supply, ecological quality, and economic development has become a global effort. Finance is at the center stage ecological transition to low-carbon emission. Against this backdrop, the present work analyses the impact of the financial sector on CO2 emissions using data from the top 10 emitting emissions economies from 1990 to 2018. Using the novel method of moments quantile regression, the findings illustrate that renewable energy usage enhances ecological quality while economic growth lowers it. The results also affirm that financial development is positively linked with carbon emission in the top 10 emitting emissions economies. These results can be explained by the fact that financial development facilities offer low borrowing rates with less restrictions for environmental sustainability projects. The empirical findings of this study highlight the necessity for policies that boost the proportion of clean energy consumption in the top 10 polluting nations' overall energy mix to reduce carbon emissions. It follows that the financial sectors in these nations must invest in cutting-edge energy-efficient technology and clean, green, and environmentally friendly initiatives. This trend will increase productivity, improve energy efficiency, and reduce pollution.

Testing the impact of renewable energy and oil price on carbon emission intensity in China's transportation sector.

As the largest carbon emitter in the world, with its transportation sector contributing the largest shares of its emission, the need for a low-carbon transition economy has become a policy agenda for China because in order to reach carbon neutrality by 2050, lowering the intensity of carbon emissions in the transportation sector will be crucial. In this regard, we used the "bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag model" to explore the impact of clean energy and oil prices on the intensity of carbon emissions in China's transportation sector. The study found that an increase in oil prices decreases the intensity of carbon emissions in the short and long run. Similarly, an increase in the level of renewable energy and economic complexity declines the intensity of carbon emissions in the transportation sector. On the contrary, the research demonstrates that non-renewable energy contributes positively to carbon emission intensity. Therefore, the authorities must promote green technology to neutralize the transportation system's detrimental effects on China's environmental quality. The implications for successfully promoting carbon emission intensity mitigation in the transportation sector are examined in the conclusion.

The potency of natural resources and trade globalisation in the ecological sustainability target for the BRICS economies.

The BRICS nations have yet to significantly contribute to achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 7 and 13. Dealing with this problem might necessitate a policy shift, which is the main topic of this research. Therefore, the current study scrutinizes the interrelationship between natural resources, energy, trade globalisation and ecological footprint using panel data from the period between 1990 and 2018 for the BRICS nations. To assess the interrelationship between ecological footprint and its determinants, we used the Cross sectional autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) and common correlated effects. mean group (CCEMG) estimators. The findings show that economic progress, and natural resources lessen ecological quality, while renewable energy and trade globalization improves ecological quality in the BRICS nations. Based on these results, the BRICS nations need to upgrade their use of renewable energy sources and improve the structure of their natural resource endowments. Furthermore, trade globalisation necessitates immediate policy responses in these nations since it reduces ecological damage.

Insights from BRICS-T economies on the impact of human capital and renewable electricity consumption on environmental quality.

This paper evaluates the impact of electricity consumption from renewable and nonrenewable sources on the load capacity factor for BRICS-T nations using data from 1990 to 2018. The paper used linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approaches to explore these associations. The results of the Westerlund co-integration show long-run co-integration between load capacity factor and the independent variables. The results show that renewable electricity energy and human capital contribute to the sustainability of the environment, while electricity consumption, economic growth, and industrialization impede environmental sustainability. Similarly, the nonlinear effect of renewable electricity energy on LCF shows interesting findings. The positive (negative) shift in renewable electricity energy increases ecological sustainability in the BRICS-T nations. Furthermore, the Dumitrescu Hurlin panel causality gives credence to both linear and nonlinear ARDL results. The study suggests policy recommendations based on these results.

Assessing the role of the insurance market and renewable energy in the load capacity factor of OECD countries.

In the empirical literature, few studies assessed the influence of the insurance market on carbon emissions. However, the effects of insurance markets on the load capacity factor (LCF) have been ignored. In this regard, the objective of the current work is to assess the potential impact of the insurance market on environmental sustainability in 27 OECD countries from 1990 to 2018 based on the LCF, which implies the strength of a state to enhance the population based on the current lifestyle. The present work employed the novel Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR). This model is the prime and correct technique to better understand the association between the insurance market and the LCF across heterogeneous quantiles and to yield more robust empirical outcomes. The MMQR findings indicate a negative interaction between the insurance market and the LCF. In other words, the insurance sector has a powerful influence on economic activities and investments, such that insurance activities lead to an increase in the level of energy utilization, and thus have a negative influence on ecological sustainability. In contrast, the findings illustrate a positive and considerable association between renewable energy consumption and LCF. Based on the overall outcomes, it is suggested that OECD countries should focus on policies that encourage the use of renewable energy rather than incentivizing the insurance market. OECD country governments should also support green insurance activities to minimize the environmental damage of the insurance market.

Climate change, insurance market, renewable energy, and biodiversity: double-materiality concept from BRICS countries.

The threat of biodiversity loss and mass extinction of species with an aftermath will shape all lives now and those to come. In this context, recent empirical studies illustrate various drivers of biodiversity for better environmental quality; however, the impact of the insurance market has not been thoroughly examined. Likewise, the possible non-linearities between biodiversity and its determinants are ignored in the current empirical literature for BRICS economies. Therefore, this work is the first to explore the effect of the insurance market, climate change, and renewable energy on biodiversity in BRICS economies using an advanced method of the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) method. The findings illustrated that a decline in the insurance market alleviates biodiversity loss and stimulates environmental quality. In contrast, an increasing insurance market augments biodiversity loss and negatively affects ecological quality. Furthermore, the findings uncovered that carbon emissions are detrimental to environmental quality. Lastly, the results report that reducing the level of renewable energy worsens biodiversity loss while boosting renewable energy utilization declines biodiversity loss. The policymakers and regulatory authorities in the BRICS should adopt the risk-based approach proposed by the network of greening the financial system (NGFS) to tackle the dilemma of double materiality between financial institutions and biodiversity.

Financial sector development, external debt, and Turkey's renewable energy consumption.

The primary aim of this paper is to provide fresh evidence by testing the linkage between renewable energy consumption, financial development, and external debts in Turkey, using the Bootstrap ARDL test (McNown et al. 2018). The Bootstrap ARDL test is desired over traditional co-integration tests due to its ability to predict when resolving power and size limitation issues, and its corresponding features, which have not been addressed by traditional co-integration tests. The ARDL testing model is employed to investigate the coefficients amongst the selected variables. The findings from the ARDL test illustrate that there is a positive linkage between renewable consumption and Turkey's financial development. Furthermore, the outcomes illustrate that the coefficient of external debt is negative and significant. The results indicate that policymakers in Turkey must use the growth of the financial sector to minimize environmental degradation by promoting investment in energy and production through renewable energy sources. Furthermore, the research suggested that Turkey's policy-makers should reformulate the external debt policy to reduce the negative influence of external debt on sustainable energy development. This could potentially be achieved by removing any restrictions on international capital flow or barriers on foreign capital and foreign investment. Hence, the findings of this paper provide valuable conclusions and recommendations for Turkey heading to sustainable and green financial sector.

The impact of the US interest rate and oil prices on renewable energy in Turkey: a bootstrap ARDL approach.

This research investigates the spillover effect of the US interest rate and oil prices on renewable energy utilization in Turkey. By employing a novel bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag approach on annual data from 1985 to 2016, the empirical findings and discussions represent the first contribution to the energy economics literature. The findings of this research confirm that the US interest rate has a significant spillover effect on the use of renewable energy in Turkey through the channels of income and local interest rate. Due to limited foreign exchange reserves, high foreign debt, low international reserves, and devaluation of the local currency, the Turkish economy is highly intertwined with the US economy through international investment and trade. All these factors reinforce the spillover influence of the US interest rate on energy consumption in Turkey. Moreover, this study affirms that the price of oil has a negative impact on renewable energy use through the real income channel. In order for Turkey to realize its investments in renewable energy resources more reliably and sustainably, the study suggests that policymakers should revise the current economic growth model by making it more resilient to external shocks such as the US interest rate, exchange rate, and oil prices.

Impact of oil prices, the U.S interest rates on Turkey's real estate market. New evidence from combined co-integration and bootstrap ARDL tests.

The research aims to provide new empirical evidence by testing the impact of the external shocks namely: oil prices and the U.S interest rate on Turkey's real estate market by using three techniques of co-integration tests namely: the newly developed bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing approach as proposed by (McNown et al. 2018), the new approach involving the Bayer-Hanck (2013) combined co-integration test, Hatemi-J (2008) co-integration testing approach. The ARDL model is utilized to explore the relationship between the variables. The findings show that the oil prices have a positive impact on Turkey's real estate market, the results confirm that there is a significant impact of oil prices on Turkey's real estate market through the domestic interest rate. Furthermore, the results demonstrated that there is a significant spillover influence of the U.S. interest rates on Turkey's real estate market through oil prices and domestic interest rates. This study suggests that the following factors led to increasing the sensitivity and volatility of the Turkish real estate market to oil prices and the U.S. interest rate fluctuations: the presence of economic interdependence between the USA and Turkey, and the majority of the external debts and the reserve currency in Turkey are composed in the USD, and Turkey's oil imports hit record high in last years. Finally, this article suggests that policymakers in Turkey should pay close attention to the effects of external shocks namely the oil prices and U.S. interest rates on Turkish markets to maintain economic and financial stability.

Testing the impact of real interest rate, income, and energy consumption on Turkey's CO2 emissions.

This paper aims to explore the impact of real interest rates (RIN), income, trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), and energy consumption on Turkey's carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) over the period from 1980 to 2014. This study differs from the existing literature by introducing a new discussion in the determination of environmental degradation, namely real interest rate. Hatemi-J (HJ) cointegration with two structural breaks and the newly developed Bayer-Hanck (BH) combined cointegration tests are used to enhance and support the robustness of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test. The Granger causality test within the vector error correction model (VECM) is employed to examine the causality direction among the variables in both the short and long run. The empirical results demonstrate that RIN negatively effects CO2 emissions. This impact is also supported through energy, income, and FDI channels. It is suggested that policy makers should promote the stability of the real interest rates channel to reduce CO2 emissions and encourage the renewable energy investment through the production of electricity using renewable sources.