Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Ultrasound Surveillance for Cholangiocarcinoma in an Endemic Area of Thailand.

OBJECTIVE: This research aimed to analyze the cost-effectiveness of ultrasound surveillance for Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) in a high-risk population residing in the northern region of Thailand and compare these results with the non-surveillance patients who presented with CCA. METHODS: This was a retrospective descriptive study of two groups monitored and treated for CCA in the same institute, but differing as to whether ultrasound was included in the surveillance. The ultrasound surveillance group comprised those who participated in the cohort study of CCA at Chulabhorn Hospital from 2011 to 2017. Whereas, the non-ultrasound surveillance group consisted of patients treated for CCA at Chulabhorn Hospital from 2009 to 2015 (and not part of the first group). Historical data and societal perspectives were analyzed and interpreted using a decision tree model. The results of one-way sensitivity analyses of probability and cost parameters affecting the change in incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were analyzed and presented using tornado diagrams. RESULT: The ultrasound surveillance group had the quality-adjusted life years gained (QALY gained) of 0.117 years, resulting in the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 152,985 Thai Baht (THB) or equal to 4,222.6 US-dollars (USD) /QALY gained which is about when compared to the non-ultrasound surveillance group. Moreover, the ICER value was within the willingness to pay (WTP) calculated for Thailand of 4,416.2 USD (160,000 THB) /QALY gained.  The probability of non-diagnostic CCA in non-ultrasound surveillance group and the cost of abdominal ultrasound were found to be major factors affecting the ICER. CONCLUSION: Ultrasound surveillance of CCA was cost-effective in Thailand. This information can be helpful for national policy planning in regard to Thai populations at high risk of CCA. Further study is recommended to assess cost-effectiveness in other areas with lower incidences of CCA.

Economic evaluation and budget impact analysis of the surveillance program for hepatocellular carcinoma in Thai chronic hepatitis B patients.

BACKGROUND: The incidence rate and the treatment costs of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are high, especially in Thailand. Previous studies indicated that early detection by a surveillance program could help by down-staging. This study aimed to compare the costs and health outcomes associated with the introduction of a HCC surveillance program with no program and to estimate the budget impact if the HCC surveillance program were implemented. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cost utility analysis using a decision tree and Markov models was used to compare costs and outcomes during the lifetime period based on a societal perspective between alternative HCC surveillance strategies with no program. Costs included direct medical, direct non-medical, and indirect costs. Health outcomes were measured as life years (LYs), and quality adjusted life years (QALYs). The results were presented in terms of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in Thai THB per QALY gained. One- way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were applied to investigate parameter uncertainties. Budget impact analysis (BIA) was performed based on the governmental perspective. RESULTS: Semi-annual ultrasonography (US) and semi-annual ultrasonography plus alpha-fetoprotein (US plus AFP) as the first screening for HCC surveillance would be cost-effective options at the willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of 160,000 THB per QALY gained compared with no surveillance program (ICER=118,796 and ICER=123,451 THB/QALY), respectively. The semi-annual US plus AFP yielded more net monetary benefit, but caused a substantially higher budget (237 to 502 million THB) than semi-annual US (81 to 201 million THB) during the next ten fiscal years. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggested that a semi-annual US program should be used as the first screening for HCC surveillance and included in the benefit package of Thai health insurance schemes for both chronic hepatitis B males and females aged between 40-50 years. In addition, policy makers considered the program could be feasible, but additional evidence is needed to support the whole prevention system before the implementation of a strategic plan.