The mortality burden related to COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021 - years of life lost and excess mortality in 13 countries and sub-national regions in Southern and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia.

Introduction: Between 2021 and 2023, a project was funded in order to explore the mortality burden (YLL-Years of Life Lost, excess mortality) of COVID-19 in Southern and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia. Methods: For each national or sub-national region, data on COVID-19 deaths and population data were collected for the period March 2020 to December 2021. Unstandardized and age-standardised YLL rates were calculated according to standard burden of disease methodology. In addition, all-cause mortality data for the period 2015-2019 were collected and used as a baseline to estimate excess mortality in each national or sub-national region in the years 2020 and 2021. Results: On average, 15-30 years of life were lost per death in the various countries and regions. Generally, YLL rates per 100,000 were higher in countries and regions in Southern and Eastern Europe compared to Central Asia. However, there were differences in how countries and regions defined and counted COVID-19 deaths. In most countries and sub-national regions, YLL rates per 100,000 (both age-standardised and unstandardized) were higher in 2021 compared to 2020, and higher amongst men compared to women. Some countries showed high excess mortality rates, suggesting under-diagnosis or under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths, and/or relatively large numbers of deaths due to indirect effects of the pandemic. Conclusion: Our results suggest that the COVID-19 mortality burden was greater in many countries and regions in Southern and Eastern Europe compared to Central Asia. However, heterogeneity in the data (differences in the definitions and counting of COVID-19 deaths) may have influenced our results. Understanding possible reasons for the differences was difficult, as many factors are likely to play a role (e.g., differences in the extent of public health and social measures to control the spread of COVID-19, differences in testing strategies and/or vaccination rates). Future cross-country analyses should try to develop structured approaches in an attempt to understand the relative importance of such factors. Furthermore, in order to improve the robustness and comparability of burden of disease indicators, efforts should be made to harmonise case definitions and reporting for COVID-19 deaths across countries.

The Burden of Disease due to COVID-19 (BoCO-19): A study protocol for a secondary analysis of surveillance data in Southern and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has had an extensive impact on public health worldwide. However, in many countries burden of disease indicators for COVID-19 have not yet been calculated or used for monitoring. The present study protocol describes an approach developed in the project "The Burden of Disease due to COVID-19. Towards a harmonization of population health metrics for the surveillance of dynamic outbreaks" (BoCO-19). The process of data collection and aggregation across 14 different countries and sub-national regions in Southern and Eastern Europe and Central Asia is described, as well as the methodological approaches used. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study implemented in BoCO-19 is a secondary data analysis, using information from national surveillance systems as part of mandatory reporting on notifiable diseases. A customized data collection template is used to gather aggregated data on population size as well as COVID-19 cases and deaths. Years of life lost (YLL), as one component of the number of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY), are calculated as described in a recently proposed COVID-19 disease model (the 'Burden-EU' model) for the calculation of DALY. All-cause mortality data are collected for excess mortality sensitivity analyses. For the calculation of Years lived with disability (YLD), the Burden-EU model is adapted based on recent evidence. Because Covid-19 cases vary in terms of disease severity, the possibility and suitability of applying a uniform severity distribution of cases across all countries and sub-national regions will be explored. An approach recently developed for the Global Burden of Disease Study, that considers post-acute consequences of COVID-19, is likely to be adopted. Findings will be compared to explore the quality and usability of the existing data, to identify trends across age-groups and sexes and to formulate recommendations concerning potential improvements in data availability and quality. DISCUSSION: BoCO-19 serves as a collaborative platform in order to build international capacity for the calculation of burden of disease indicators, and to support national experts in the analysis and interpretation of country-specific data, including their strengths and weaknesses. Challenges include inherent differences in data collection and reporting systems between countries, as well as assumptions that have to be made during the calculation process.

The increasing significance of disease severity in a burden of disease framework.

Recent estimates have reiterated that non-fatal causes of disease, such as low back pain, headaches and depressive disorders, are amongst the leading causes of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). For these causes, the contribution of years lived with disability (YLD) - put simply, ill-health - is what drives DALYs, not mortality. Being able to monitor trends in YLD closely is particularly relevant for countries that sit high on the socio-demographic spectrum of development, as it contributes more than half of all DALYs. There is a paucity of data on how the population-level occurrence of disease is distributed according to severity, and as such, the majority of global and national efforts in monitoring YLD lack the ability to differentiate changes in severity across time and location. This raises uncertainties in interpreting these findings without triangulation with other relevant data sources. Our commentary aims to bring this issue to the forefront for users of burden of disease estimates, as its impact is often easily overlooked as part of the fundamental process of generating DALY estimates. Moreover, the wider health harms of the COVID-19 pandemic have underlined the likelihood of latent and delayed demand in accessing vital health and care services that will ultimately lead to exacerbated disease severity and health outcomes. This places increased importance on attempts to be able to differentiate by both the occurrence and severity of disease.

Financial Burden of Medical Care, Dental Care, and Medicines among Older-Aged Population in Slovenia, Serbia, and Croatia.

The aim was to explore the factors associated with the financial burden (FB) of medical care, dental care, and medicines among older-aged people in Slovenia, Serbia, and Croatia using EU-SILC 2017. The highest frequency of FB of medical care and medicines was in Croatia (50% and 69.1%, respectively) and of dental care in Slovenia (48.5%). The multivariate logistic regression analysis with FB as an outcome variable showed that the FB of medical care was associated with being married (OR: 1.54), reporting not severe (OR: 1.51) and severe limitations in daily activities (OR: 2.05), having higher education (OR: 2.03), and heavy burden of housing costs (OR: 0.51) in Slovenia, with very bad self-perceived health (OR: 5.23), having the slight (OR: 0.69) or heavy (OR: 0.47) burden of housing costs, making ends meet fairly easily or with some difficulty (OR: 3.58) or with difficulty or great difficulty (OR: 6.80) in Serbia, and with being married (OR: 1.43), having heavy burden of housing costs (OR: 0.62), and making ends meet fairly easily or with some difficulty (OR: 2.08) or with difficulty or great difficulty (OR: 2.52) in Croatia. The older-aged have the FB of healthcare, especially the poorest or those with health problems.

Towards equal access to health services in Serbia

Serbia has a comprehensive universal health system withfree access to health care, but there are inequities in the utilisation of health services. Some vulnerable groups, such as those living in poverty or Roma people in settlements, have more barriers in accessing health care. Financial constraints are the main reason for unmet needs, in particular for the less educated and the poorest. Although citizens are generally satisfied with public and private health care services, a significant number of patients are on waiting lists. Therefore, reaching equal access to health services should be one of the leading health policy goals.

Serbia: Health System Review.

This analysis of the Serbian health system reviews recent developments in organization and governance, health financing, health care provision, health reforms and health system performance. The health of the Serbian population has improved over the last decade. Life expectancy at birth increased slightly in recent years, but it remains, for example, around 5 years below the average across European Union countries. Some favourable trends have been observed in health status and morbidity rates, including a decrease in the incidence of tuberculosis, but population ageing means that chronic conditions and long-standing disability are increasing. The state exercises a strong governance role in Serbia's social health insurance system. Recent efforts have increased centralization by transferring ownership of buildings and equipment to the national level. The health insurance system provides coverage for almost the entire population (98%). Even though the system is comprehensive and universal, with free access to publicly provided health services, there are inequities in access to primary care and certain population groups (such as the most socially and economically disadvantaged, the uninsured, and the Roma) often experience problems in accessing care. The uneven distribution of health professionals across the country and shortages in some specialities also exacerbate accessibility problems. High out-of-pocket payments, amounting to over 40% of total expenditure on health, contribute to relatively high levels of self-reported unmet need for medical care. Health care provision is characterized by the role of the "chosen doctor" in primary health care centres, who acts as a gatekeeper in the system. Recent public health efforts have focused on improving access to preventive health services, in particular, for vulnerable groups. Health system reforms since 2012 have focused on improving infrastructure and technology, and on implementing an integrated health information system. However, the country lacks a transparent and comprehensive system for assessing the benefits of health care investments and determining how to pay for them.

Serbia: health system review

This analysis of the Serbian health system reviews recent developments in organization and governance, health financing, health care provision, health reforms and health system performance. The health of the Serbian population has improved over the last decade. Life expectancy at birth increased slightly in recent years, but it remains, for example, around 5 years below the average across European Union countries. Some favourable trends have been observed in health status and morbidity rates, including a decrease in the incidence of tuberculosis, but population ageing means that chronic conditions and long-standing disabilityare increasing. The state exercises a strong governance role in Serbia’s social healthinsurance system. Recent efforts have increased centralization by transferring ownership of buildings and equipment to the national level. The health insurance system provides coverage for almost the entire population (98%). Even though the system is comprehensive and universal, with free access to publicly provided health services, there are inequities in access to primary careand certain population groups (such as the most socially and economically disadvantaged, the uninsured, and the Roma) often experience problems in accessing care. The uneven distribution of health professionals across the country and shortages in some specialities also exacerbate accessibility problems. High out-of-pocket payments, amounting to over 40% of totalexpenditure on health, contribute to relatively high levels of self-reported unmet need for medical care. Health care provision is characterized by the role of the “chosen doctor” in primary health care centres, who acts as a gatekeeper in the system. Recent public health efforts have focused on improving access to preventive health services, in particular, for vulnerable groups. Health system reforms since 2012 have focused on improving infrastructure and technology, and on implementing an integrated health information system. However, the country lacks a transparent and comprehensive system for assessing the benefits of health care investments and determining how to pay for them.

A call for action to establish a research agenda for building a future health workforce in Europe.

The importance of a sustainable health workforce is increasingly recognised. However, the building of a future health workforce that is responsive to diverse population needs and demographic and economic change remains insufficiently understood. There is a compelling argument to be made for a comprehensive research agenda to address the questions. With a focus on Europe and taking a health systems approach, we introduce an agenda linked to the 'Health Workforce Research' section of the European Public Health Association. Six major objectives for health workforce policy were identified: (1) to develop frameworks that align health systems/governance and health workforce policy/planning, (2) to explore the effects of changing skill mixes and competencies across sectors and occupational groups, (3) to map how education and health workforce governance can be better integrated, (4) to analyse the impact of health workforce mobility on health systems, (5) to optimise the use of international/EU, national and regional health workforce data and monitoring and (6) to build capacity for policy implementation. This article highlights critical knowledge gaps that currently hamper the opportunities of effectively responding to these challenges and advising policy-makers in different health systems. Closing these knowledge gaps is therefore an important step towards future health workforce governance and policy implementation. There is an urgent need for building health workforce research as an independent, interdisciplinary and multi-professional field. This requires dedicated research funding, new academic education programmes, comparative methodology and knowledge transfer and leadership that can help countries to build a people-centred health workforce.

Sustaining success: aligning the public health workforce in South-Eastern Europe with strategic public health priorities.

OBJECTIVES: To map out the Public Health Workforce (PHW) involved in successful public health interventions. METHODS: We did a pilot assessment of human resources involved in successful interventions addressing public health challenges in the countries of South-Eastern Europe (SEE). High-level representatives of eight countries reported about success stories through the coaching by experts. During synthesizing qualitative data, experts applied triangulation by contacting additional sources of evidence and used the framework method in data analysis. RESULTS: SEE countries tailored public health priorities towards social determinants, health equalities, and prevention of non-communicable diseases. A variety of organizations participated in achieving public health success. The same applies to the wide array of professions involved in the delivery of Essential Public Health Operations (EPHOs). Key enablers of the successful work of PHW were staff capacities, competences, interdisciplinary networking, productivity, and funding. CONCLUSIONS: Despite diversity across countries, successful public health interventions have similar ingredients. Although PHW is aligned with the specific public health success, a productive interface between health and other sectors is crucial for rolling-out successful interventions.

Strengthening the public health workforce: An estimation of the long-term requirements for public health specialists in Serbia.

At the beginning of the 21st century, planning the public health workforce requirements came into the focus of policy makers. The need for improved provision of essential public health services, driven by a challenging non-communicable disease and causes of death and disability within Serbia, calls for a much needed estimation of the requirements of the public health professionals. Mid and long-term public health specialists' supply and demand estimations out to 2025were developed based on national staffing standards and regional distribution of the workforce in public health institutes of Serbia. By 2025, the supply of specialists, taking into account attrition rate of -1% reaches the staffing standard. However, a slight increase in attrition rates has the impact of revealing supply shortage risks. Demand side projections show that public health institutes require an annual input of 10 specialists or 2.1% annual growth rate in order for the four public health fields to achieve a headcount of 487 by 2025 as well as counteract workforce attrition rates. Shortage and poor distribution of public health specialists underline the urgent need for workforce recruitment and retention in public health institutes in order to ensure the coordination, management, surveillance and provision of essential public health services over the next decade.

Socioeconomic Inequalities in Mental Health of Adult Population: Serbian National Health Survey.

BACKGROUND: The global burden of mental disorders is rising. In Serbia, anxiety is the leading cause of disability-adjusted life years. Serbia has no mental health survey at the population level. The information on prevalence of mental disorders and related socioeconomic inequalities are valuable for mental care improvement. AIMS: To explore the prevalence of mental health disorders and socioeconomic inequalities in mental health of adult Serbian population, and to explore whether age years and employment status interact with mental health in urban and rural settlements. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. METHODS: This study is an additional analysis of Serbian Health Survey 2006 that was carried out with standardized household questionnaires at the representative sample of 7673 randomly selected households - 15563 adults. The response rate was 93%. A multivariate logistic regression modeling highlighted the predictors of the 5 item Mental Health Inventory (MHI-5), and of chronic anxiety or depression within eight independent variables (age, gender, type of settlement, marital status and self-perceived health, education, employment status and Wealth Index). The significance level in descriptive statistics, chi square analysis and bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions was set at p<0.05. RESULTS: Chronic anxiety or depression was seen in 4.9% of the respondents, and poor MHI-5 in 47% of respondents. Low education (Odds Ratios 1.32; 95% confidence intervals=1.16-1.51), unemployment (1.36; 1.18-1.56), single status (1.34; 1.23-1.45), and Wealth Index middle class (1.20; 1.08-1.32) or poor (1.33; 1.21-1.47) were significantly related with poor MHI-5. Unemployed persons in urban settlements had higher odds for poormMHI-5 than unemployed in rural areas (0.73; 0.59-0.89). Single (1.50; 1.26-1.78), unemployed (1.39; 1.07-1.80) and inactive respondents (1.42; 1.10-1.83) had a higher odds of chronic anxiety or depression than married individuals, or those with partner, and employed persons. Those with perceived good health status had lower odds for poor MHI-5, chronic anxiety or depression than those whose general health was average and poor. CONCLUSION: Almost half of the population assessed their mental health as poor and 5% had diagnosed chronic anxiety or depression. Multi-sectoral socioeconomic and female-sensitive policies should be wisely tailored to reduce mental health inequalities contributed by differences in age, education, employment, marriage and the wealth status of the adult population.

Mapping the governance of human resources for health in Serbia.

This article maps the current governance of human resources for health (HRH) in relation to universal health coverage in Serbia since the health sector reforms in 2003. The study adapts the Global Health Workforce Alliance/World Health Organization four-dimensional framework of HRH in the context of governance for universal health coverage. A set of proxies was established for the availability, accessibility, acceptability and quality of HRH. Analysis of official HRH documentation from relevant institutions and reports were used to construct a governance profile of HRH for Serbia from the introduction of the reform in 2003 up to 2013. The results show that all Serbian districts (except Sremski) surpass the availability threshold of 59.4 skilled midwives, nurses and physicians per 10,000 inhabitants. District accessibility of health workforce greatly differed from the national average with variances from +26% to -34%. Analysis of national averages and patient load of general practitioners showed variances among districts by ± 21%, whilst hospital discharges per 100 inhabitants deviated between +52% and -45%. Pre-service and in-service education of health workforce is regulated and accredited. However, through its efforts to respond to population health needs Serbia lacks a single coordinating entity to take overall responsibility for effective and coordinated HRH planning, management and development within the broader landscape of health strategy development.

Training hospital managers for strategic planning and management: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Training is the systematic acquisition of skills, rules, concepts, or attitudes and is one of the most important components in any organization's strategy. There is increasing demand for formal and informal training programs especially for physicians in leadership positions. This study determined the learning outcomes after a specific training program for hospital management teams. METHODS: The study was conducted during 2006 and 2007 at the Centre School of Public Health and Management, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade and included 107 participants involved in the management in 20 Serbian general hospitals. The management teams were multidisciplinary, consisting of five members on average: the director of the general hospital, the deputy directors, the head nurse, and the chiefs of support services. The managers attended a training program, which comprised four modules addressing specific topics. Three reviewers independently evaluated the level of management skills at the beginning and 12 months after the training program. Principal component analysis and subsequent stepwise multiple linear regression analysis were performed to determine predictors of learning outcomes. RESULTS: The quality of the SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analyses performed by the trainees improved with differences between 0.35 and 0.49 on a Likert scale (p < 0.001). Principal component analysis explained 81% of the variance affecting their quality of strategic planning. Following the training program, the external environment, strategic positioning, and quality of care were predictors of learning outcomes. The four regression models used showed that the training program had positive effects (p < 0.001) on the ability to formulate a Strategic Plan comprising the hospital mission, vision, strategic objectives, and action plan. CONCLUSION: This study provided evidence that training for strategic planning and management enhanced the strategic decision-making of hospital management teams, which is a requirement for hospitals in an increasingly competitive, complex and challenging context. For the first time, half of state general hospitals involved in team training have formulated the development of an official strategic plan. The positive effects of the formal training program justify additional investment in future education and training.

Competencies gap of management teams in primary health care.

BACKGROUND: Health workforce competencies are considered crucial for attaining high-quality health care in the current market principles approach to the provision of health services. This study explored the competencies and the perceived competence gap of management personnel in public primary healthcare. METHODS: During 2007 and 2008, 14 management teams of Belgrade primary health-care centres were questioned before and after management training in six competency categories. Competency mean differences (95% confidence interval) by gender, educational level, experience and position were analysed by Leven, Snedecor or Welch statistics, and Student's t-test for comparison of two independent samples. Mixed Model Analysis clarified possible interactions of the managers' baseline characteristics and competency task ratings. Differences between team ratings were analysed by analysis of variance (ANOVA) or the Kruskal-Wallis test. The General Linear Model Repeated Measures Analysis determined interactions and competency gap changes. Differences were statistically significant at P ≤ 0.05. RESULTS: Female managers developed higher competency levels after training in communication skills and problem solving. Top managers rated assessing performance of higher importance, while chief nurses emphasized the importance of leading. Before training, the estimated competency gap was generally the highest in assessing performance (6.29), followed by team building (5.81) and planning and priority setting (5.70). Five months after training, the highest gap remained in assessing performance, although it was reduced considerably to 3.18 (P < 0.0005). CONCLUSIONS: Managers rated core competencies as highly important. The reduction in competency gaps can be significant through training. However, assessing performance remained a relatively high weakness among managers.

Serbia within the European context: An analysis of premature mortality.

BACKGROUND: Based on the global predictions majority of deaths will be collectively caused by cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and traffic accidents over the coming 25 years. In planning future national health policy actions, inter - regional assessments play an important role. The purpose of the study was to analyze similarities and differences in premature mortality between Serbia, EURO A, EURO B, and EURO C regions in 2000. METHODS: Mortality and premature mortality patterns were analysed according to cause of death, by gender and seven age intervals. The study results are presented in relative (%) and absolute terms (age-specific and age-standardized death rates per 100,000 population, and age-standardized rates of years of life lost - YLL per 1,000). Direct standardization of rates was undertaken using the standard population of Europe. The inter-regional comparison was based on a calculation of differences in YLL structures and with a ratio of age-standardized YLL rates per 1,000. A multivariate generalized linear model was used to explore mortality of Serbia and Europe sub-regions with ln age-specific death rates. The dissimilarity was achieved with a p

The burden of disease and injury in Serbia.

BACKGROUND: In the last decade of the 20th century, a considerable effort has been put into the development of summary measures of population health that combine information on mortality and non-fatal health outcomes. We used the DALYs (Disability adjusted life years) method to assess the burden of disease and injury in the population of Serbia. METHODS: Our study, largely based on the methods developed for the Global burden of disease study, was conducted between October 2002 and September 2003. DALYs, stratified by gender and age, were calculated for 18 selected health conditions for the population of Serbia, Serbia and Montenegro for 2000. Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated using country mortality statistics, while years lived with disability (YLD) were calculated using different sources of information. Also, the YLD/YYL ratio and age-adjusted rates of DALYs were calculated. RESULTS: Ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, lung cancer, unipolar depressive disorders, and diabetes mellitus were responsible for almost two-thirds (70%) of the total burden of 18 selected disorders in Serbia 2000. The leading five causes for males were ischaemic heart disease (26.1 DALY per 1000), stroke (17.9), lung cancer (12.7), road traffic accidents (6.5), and self-inflicted injuries (5.5). For females, the leading five causes were stroke (18.1 DALY per 1000), ischaemic heart disease (14.1), depression (8.7), breast cancer (6.1), and diabetes mellitus (5.2). CONCLUSIONS: The final results of the study have shown that the national health priority areas should cover cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and mental health.