Protocol for the formative phase of a trial (SHE-CAN) to test co-designed implementation strategies for HPV-based cervical screening among vulnerable women in two diverse settings in India.

BACKGROUND: In view of the WHO's call for the elimination of cervical cancer as a public health problem, and current low screening coverage, Indian policy makers need evidence on how to effectively implement cervical screening programmes, ensuring equity in access. Our study will follow the INSPIRE implementation framework to co-design and test HPV-based screening approaches in two states of India with different health system organisation, based on understanding the status of screening as currently implemented, readiness and challenges to transition to HPV-based screening, and preferences of key stakeholders. Here, we describe our protocol for the formative phase of the study (SHE-CAN). METHODS: The study population includes women from vulnerable populations, defined as residents of tribal areas, rural villages, and urban slums, in the states of Mizoram and Tamil Nadu. The baseline assessment will use mixed methods research, with desktop reviews, qualitative studies, and surveys. A capacity assessment survey of screening and treatment facilities will be done, followed by interviews with healthcare providers, programme managers, and community health workers. Interviews will be conducted with previously screened women and focus group discussions with under and never-screened women and community members. Stakeholder workshops will be held in each state to co-design the approaches to delivering HPV-based screening among 30-49-year-old women. DISCUSSION: The quality and outcomes of existing screening services, readiness to transition to HPV-based screening, challenges in providing and participating in the cervical cancer care continuum, and acceptability of screening and treatment approaches will be examined. The knowledge gained about the current system, as well as recognition of actions to be taken, will inform a stakeholder workshop to co-design and evaluate implementation approaches for HPV-based screening through a cluster randomised implementation trial.

Towards the elimination of cervical cancer in low-income and lower-middle-income countries: modelled evaluation of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of point-of-care HPV self-collected screening and treatment in Papua New Guinea.

INTRODUCTION: WHO has launched updated cervical screening guidelines, including provisions for primary HPV screen-and-treat. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has a high burden of cervical cancer, but no national cervical screening programme. We recently completed the first field trials of a screen-and-treat algorithm using point-of-care self-collected HPV and same-day treatment (hereafter self-collected HPV S&T) and showed this had superior clinical performance and acceptability to visual inspection of the cervix with acetic acid (VIA). We, therefore, evaluated the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and resource implications of a national cervical screening programme using self-collected HPV S&T compared with VIA in PNG. METHODS: An extensively validated platform ('Policy1-Cervix') was calibrated to PNG. A total of 38 strategies were selected for investigation, and these incorporated variations in age ranges and screening frequencies and allowed for the identification of the optimal strategy across a wide range of possibilities. A selection of strategies that were identified as being the most effective and cost-effective were then selected for further investigation for longer-term outcomes and budget impact estimation. In the base case, we assumed primary HPV testing has a sensitivity to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 (CIN2+) + of 91.8% and primary VIA of 51.5% based on our earlier field evaluation combined with evidence from the literature. We conservatively assumed HPV sampling and testing would cost US$18. Costs were estimated from a service provider perspective based on data from local field trials and local consultation. RESULTS: Self-collected HPV S&T was more effective and more cost-effective than VIA. Either twice or thrice lifetime self-collected HPV S&T would be cost-effective at 0.5× gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: US$460-US$656/life-years saved; 1GDPper-capita: US$2829 or PGK9446 (year 2019)) and could prevent 33 000-42 000 cases and 23 000-29 000 deaths in PNG over the next 50 years, if scale-up reached 70% coverage from 2023. CONCLUSION: Self-collected HPV S&T was effective and cost-effective in the high-burden, low-resource setting of PNG, and, if scaled-up rapidly, could prevent over 20 000 deaths over the next 50 years. VIA screening was not effective or cost-effective. These findings support, at a country level, WHO updated cervical screening guidelines and indicate that similar approaches could be appropriate for other low-resource settings.

The road to cervical cancer elimination in Malaysia: Evaluation of the impact and cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus screening with self-collection and digital registry support.

The WHO has launched a global strategy to eliminate cervical cancer through the scale-up of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, cervical screening, and cervical cancer treatment. Malaysia has achieved high-coverage HPV vaccination since 2010, but coverage of the existing cytology-based program remains low. Pilot studies found HPV self-sampling was acceptable and effective, with high follow-up rates when a digital registry was used, and recently the Malaysian Government announced plans for a national HPV-based screening program. We therefore evaluated the impact of primary HPV screening with self-collection in Malaysia in the context of Malaysia's existing vaccination program. We used the "Policy1-Cervix" modeling platform to assess health outcomes, cost-effectiveness, resource use and cervical cancer elimination timing (the year when cervical cancer rates reach four cases per 100 000 women) of implementing primary HPV testing with self-collection, assuming 70% routine-screening coverage could be achieved. Based on available data, we assumed that compliance with follow-up was 90% when a digital registry was used, but that compliance with follow-up would be 50-75% without the use of a digital registry. We found that the current vaccination program would prevent 27 000 to 32 200 cervical cancer cases and 11 700 to 14 000 deaths by 2070. HPV testing with a digital registry was cost-effective (CER = $US 6953-7549 < $US 11 373[<1×GDP per capita]) and could prevent an additional 15 900 to 17 800 cases and 9700 to 10 600 deaths by 2070, expediting national elimination by 11 to 20 years, to 2055 to 2059. If HPV screening were implemented without a digital registry, there would be 1800 to 4900 fewer deaths averted by 2070 and the program would be less cost-effective. These results underline the importance of HPV testing as a key elimination pillar in Malaysia.

Assessment of attribution algorithms for resolving CIN3-related HPV genotype prevalence in mixed-genotype biopsy specimens using laser capture microdissection as the reference standard.

To make accurate determinations regarding potential and actual impact of HPV vaccine programs, precise estimates of genotype-specific contributions to disease are required for pre- and post-vaccine populations. Definitive determination of lesion-specific genotypes, particularly where multiple genotypes are detected in a sample, can be technically demanding and resource intensive; therefore, most prevalence studies use mathematical algorithms to adjust for multiple genotype detections. There are currently several algorithms, which can produce genotype estimates within a wide range of variability. The use of these for cervical cytology samples has recently been assessed for accuracy against a definitive reference standard, but none have yet been assessed for multiple-genotype-containing whole biopsy specimens. Using laser capture microdissection (LCM) on biopsy samples, lesion-specific genotype prevalence data were generated for a cohort of 516 young Australian women (aged 18-32 years) with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or adenocarcinoma in situ. Using whole tissue section genotype data from the same cohort, including 71 (13.7%) with multiple genotypes, lesion-associated genotype prevalence was estimated using four different attribution algorithms. The proportion of lesions attributable to HPV16 and HPV18 by LCM were 58.4% and 5%, respectively; hierarchical, proportional, single type/minimum and any type/maximum attribution estimates were comparable across genotypes. For analyses utilising whole tissue biopsy cervical specimens, attribution estimates are appropriate for estimating the proportional contribution of individual genotypes to lesions in a population.

Lessons from the renewal of the National Cervical Screening Program in Australia.

OBJECTIVES: Australia was one of the first countries to make the transition from cytology-based to HPV-based cervical screening.This analysis of the national program's transition to a new model looks at the lessons learnt that can provide valuable insights to other settings. Type of program: Australia's National Cervical Screening Program (NCSP). METHODS: Following an extensive policy review, in December 2017 the NCSP transitioned from 2-yearly cytology-based screening in women from age 18, to 5-yearly primary HPV screening from age 25. RESULTS: Some changes were more complex than initially anticipated. Building and implementing the National Cancer Screening Register was a more demanding and specialised project than expected. Regulatory requirements for self-collection were unexpectedly onerous, because self-collection was not formally included as an intended use by HPV test manufacturers. This delayed the rollout of a key measure to improve participation and equity. Colposcopy demand was expected to increase substantially but exceeded expectations. Uncertainty about appropriate clinical management or testing outside guideline recommendations may have contributed to the excess demand, highlighting the importance of training providers in the rationale for guidelines as well as the content. LESSONS LEARNT: Although the changes were evidence based, there were nevertheless some concerns among women and healthcare providers, especially about the longer interval and later starting age for screening. These could have been reduced through earlier and more extensively delivered information to healthcare providers, who play a key role in addressing community concerns. Improved coordination of stakeholder support between government and nongovernment organisations may also have extended both the reach and credibility of communication about the program changes. Transitioning a well-established program is challenging, not only because of the changes required, but also because the existing program must continue to function until the transition. Delays may be hard to avoid, but early communication will enable better forward planning, especially by service providers. Since delays can reduce wider confidence in the changes, proactive communication is critical. Achieving high and equitable screening coverage is a key element if Australia and other countries are to succeed in eliminating cervical cancer as a public health problem. Improving screening program confidence and participation remain important ongoing work. Lessons from Australia will provide valuable insights for other countries making similar changes.

Protocol for Compass: a randomised controlled trial of primary HPV testing versus cytology screening for cervical cancer in HPV-unvaccinated and vaccinated women aged 25-69 years living in Australia.

INTRODUCTION: Australia's National Cervical Screening Program (NCSP) currently recommends 2-year cytology in women aged 18-69 years. Following a review of the NCSP prompted by the implementation of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, the programme will transition in 2017 to 5-year primary HPV screening with partial genotyping for HPV16/18 in women aged 25-74 years. Compass is a sentinel experience for the renewed NCSP and the first prospectively randomised trial of primary HPV screening compared with cytology to be conducted in a population with high uptake of HPV vaccination. This protocol describes the main Compass trial, which commenced after a pilot study of ~5000 women completed recruitment. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Women aged 25-69 years will be randomised at a 1:2 allocation to (1) 2.5-year image-read, liquid-based cytology (LBC) screening with HPV triage of low-grade smears (active control Arm A) or (2) 5-year HPV screening with partial genotyping and referral of HPV16/18-positive women to colposcopy (intervention Arm B). Women in Arm B positive for other oncogenic HPV (not 16/18) will undergo secondary randomisation at a 1:1 allocation to either LBC or dual-stained (p16INK4a and Ki-67) cytology testing (dual-stained cytology). The primary outcome is cumulative CIN3+ (CIN3, adenocarcinoma in situ and invasive cervical cancer) following a 5-year HPV exit testing round in both arms, in women randomised to the HPV arm versus women randomised to the LBC arm, based on an intention-to-treat analysis. The primary outcome will first be tested for non-inferiority and if declared, the primary outcome will be tested for superiority. A total of 36 300 women in birth cohorts not offered vaccination and 84 700 women in cohorts offered vaccination will be recruited, bringing the final sample size to 121 000. The trial is powered for the secondary outcome of cumulative CIN3+ in screen-negative women, adjusted for censoring after CIN2+ treatment and hysterectomy. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Approved by the Bellberry Ethics Committee (2014-11-592). Findings will be reported in peer-reviewed journals and presented at scientific meetings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02328872; Pre-results.

Primary HPV testing versus cytology-based cervical screening in women in Australia vaccinated for HPV and unvaccinated: effectiveness and economic assessment for the National Cervical Screening Program.

BACKGROUND: Australia's National Cervical Screening Program currently recommends cytological screening every 2 years for women aged 18-69 years. Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination was implemented in 2007 with high population coverage, and falls in high-grade lesions in young women have been reported extensively. This decline prompted a major review of the National Cervical Screening Program and new clinical management guidelines, for which we undertook this analysis. METHODS: We did effectiveness modelling and an economic assessment of potential new screening strategies, using a model of HPV transmission, vaccination, natural history, and cervical screening. First, we evaluated 132 screening strategies, including those based on cytology and primary HPV testing. Second, after a recommendation was made to adopt primary HPV screening with partial genotyping and direct referral to colposcopy of women positive for HPV16/18, we evaluated the final effect of HPV screening after incorporating new clinical guidelines for women positive for HPV. Both evaluations considered both unvaccinated and vaccinated cohorts. FINDINGS: Strategies entailing HPV testing every 5 years and either partial genotyping for HPV16/18 or cytological co-testing were the most effective. One of the most effective and cost-effective strategies comprised primary HPV screening with referral of women positive for oncogenic HPV16/18 direct to colposcopy, with reflex cytological triage for women with other oncogenic types and direct referral for those in this group with high-grade cytological findings. After incorporating detailed clinical guidelines recommendations, this strategy is predicted to reduce cervical cancer incidence and mortality by 31% and 36%, respectively, in unvaccinated cohorts, and by 24% and 29%, respectively, in cohorts offered vaccination. Furthermore, this strategy is predicted to reduce costs by up to 19% for unvaccinated cohorts and 26% for cohorts offered vaccination, compared with the current programme. INTERPRETATION: Primary HPV screening every 5 years with partial genotyping is predicted to be substantially more effective and potentially cost-saving compared with the current cytology-based screening programme undertaken every 2 years. These findings underpin the decision to transition to primary HPV screening with partial genotyping in the Australian National Cervical Screening Program, which will occur in May, 2017. FUNDING: Department of Health, Australia.

Long-term evaluation of benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program in Australia: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: No assessment of the National Bowel Screening Program (NBCSP) in Australia, which considers all downstream benefits, costs, and harms, has been done. We aimed to use a comprehensive natural history model and the most recent information about cancer treatment costs to estimate long-term benefits, costs, and harms of the NBCSP (2 yearly immunochemical faecal occult blood testing screening at age 50-74 years) and evaluate the incremental effect of improved screening participation under different scenarios. METHODS: In this modelling study, a microsimulation model, Policy1-Bowel, which simulates the development of colorectal cancer via both the conventional adenoma-carcinoma and serrated pathways was used to simulate the NBCSP in 2006-40, taking into account the gradual rollout of NBCSP in 2006-20. The base-case scenario assumed 40% screening participation (currently observed behaviour) and two alternative scenarios assuming 50% and 60% participation by 2020 were modelled. Aggregate year-by-year screening, diagnosis, treatment and surveillance-related costs, resource utilisation (number of screening tests and colonoscopies), and health outcomes (incident colorectal cancer cases and colorectal cancer deaths) were estimated, as was the cost-effectiveness of the NBCSP. FINDINGS: With current levels of participation (40%), the NBCSP is expected to prevent 92 200 cancer cases and 59 000 deaths over the period 2015-40; an additional 24 300 and 37 300 cases and 16 800 and 24 800 deaths would be prevented if participation was increased to 50% and 60%, respectively. In 2020, an estimated 101 000 programme-related colonoscopies will be done, associated with about 270 adverse events; an additional 32 500 and 49 800 colonoscopies and 88 and 134 adverse events would occur if participation was increased to 50% and 60%, respectively. The overall number needed to screen (NNS) is 647-788 per death prevented, with 52-59 colonoscopies per death prevented. The programme is cost-effective due to the cancer treatment costs averted (cost-effectiveness ratio compared with no screening at current participation, AUS$3014 [95% uncertainty interval 1807-5583] per life-year saved) in the cost-effectiveness analysis. In the budget impact analysis, reduced annual expenditure on colorectal cancer control is expected by 2030, with expenditure reduced by a cumulative AUS$1·7 billion, AUS$2·0 billion, and AUS$2·1 billion (2015 prices) between 2030 and 2040, at participation rates of 40%, 50%, and 60%, respectively. INTERPRETATION: The NBCSP has potential to save 83 800 lives over the period 2015-40 if coverage rates can be increased to 60%. By contrast, the associated harms, although an important consideration, are at a smaller magnitude at the population level. The programme is highly cost-effective and within a decade of full roll-out, there will be reduced annual health systems expenditure on colorectal cancer control due to the impact of screening. FUNDING: Australia Postgraduate Award PhD Scholarship, Translational Cancer Research Network Top-up scholarship (supported by Cancer Institute NSW) and Cancer Council NSW.

Optimal Management Strategies for Primary HPV Testing for Cervical Screening: Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation for the National Cervical Screening Program in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Several countries are implementing a transition to HPV testing for cervical screening in response to the introduction of HPV vaccination and evidence indicating that HPV screening is more effective than cytology. In Australia, a 2017 transition from 2-yearly conventional cytology in 18-20 to 69 years to 5-yearly primary HPV screening in 25 to 74 years will involve partial genotyping for HPV 16/18 with direct referral to colposcopy for this higher risk group. The objective of this study was to determine the optimal management of women positive for other high-risk HPV types (not 16/18) ('OHR HPV'). METHODS: We used a dynamic model of HPV transmission, vaccination, natural history and cervical screening to determine the optimal management of women positive for OHR HPV. We assumed cytology triage testing was used to inform management in this group and that those with high-grade cytology would be referred to colposcopy and those with negative cytology would receive 12-month surveillance. For those with OHR HPV and low-grade cytology (considered to be a single low-grade category in Australia incorporating ASC-US and LSIL), we evaluated (1) the 20-year risk of invasive cervical cancer assuming this group are referred for 12-month follow-up vs. colposcopy, and compared this to the risk in women with low-grade cytology under the current program (i.e. an accepted benchmark risk for 12-month follow-up in Australia); (2) the population-level impact of the whole program, assuming this group are referred to 12-month surveillance vs. colposcopy; and (3) the cost-effectiveness of immediate colposcopy compared to 12-month follow-up. Evaluation was performed both for HPV-unvaccinated cohorts and cohorts offered vaccination (coverage ~72%). FINDINGS: The estimated 20-year risk of cervical cancer is ≤1.0% at all ages if this group are referred to colposcopy vs. ≤1.2% if followed-up in 12 months, both of which are lower than the ≤2.6% benchmark risk in women with low-grade cytology in the current program (who are returned for 12-month follow-up). At the population level, immediate colposcopy referral provides an incremental 1-3% reduction in cervical cancer incidence and mortality compared with 12-month follow-up, but this is in the context of a predicted 24-36% reduction associated with the new HPV screening program compared to the current cytology-based program. Furthermore, immediate colposcopy substantially increases the predicted number of colposcopies, with >650 additional colposcopies required to avert each additional case of cervical cancer compared to 12-month follow-up. Compared to 12-month follow-up, immediate colposcopy has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of A$104,600/LYS (95%CrI:A$100,100-109,100) in unvaccinated women and A$117,100/LYS (95%CrI:A$112,300-122,000) in cohorts offered vaccination [Indicative willingness-to-pay threshold: A$50,000/LYS]. CONCLUSIONS: In primary HPV screening programs, partial genotyping for HPV16/18 or high-grade triage cytology in OHR HPV positive women can be used to refer the highest risk group to colposcopy, but 12-month follow-up for women with OHR HPV and low-grade cytology is associated with a low risk of developing cervical cancer. Direct referral to colposcopy for this group would be associated with a substantial increase in colposcopy referrals and the associated harms, and is also cost-ineffective; thus, 12-month surveillance for women with OHR HPV and low-grade cytology provides the best balance between benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness.

Rationale and design of REACT: a randomised controlled trial assessing the effectiveness of home-collection to increase chlamydia retesting and detect repeat positive tests.

BACKGROUND: Repeat infection with Chlamydia trachomatis is common and increases the risk of sequelae in women and HIV seroconversion in men who have sex with men (MSM). Despite guidelines recommending chlamydia retesting three months after treatment, retesting rates are low. We are conducting the first randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness of home collection combined with short message service (SMS) reminders on chlamydia retesting and reinfection rates in three risk groups. METHODS/DESIGN: The REACT (retest after Chlamydia trachomatis) trial involves 600 patients diagnosed with chlamydia: 200 MSM, 200 women and 200 heterosexual men recruited from two Australian sexual health clinics where SMS reminders for retesting are routine practice. Participants will be randomised to the home group (3-month SMS reminder and home-collection) or the clinic group (3-month SMS reminder to return to the clinic). Participants in the home group will be given the choice of attending the clinic if they prefer. The mailed home-collection kit includes a self-collected vaginal swab (women), UriSWAB (Copan) for urine collection (heterosexual men), and UriSWAB plus rectal swab (MSM). The primary outcome is the retest rate at 1-4 months after a chlamydia diagnosis, and the secondary outcomes are: the repeat positive test rate; the reinfection rate; the acceptability of home testing with SMS reminders; and the cost effectiveness of home testing. Sexual behaviour data collected via an online survey at 4-5 months, and genotyping of repeat infections, will be used to discriminate reinfections from treatment failures. The trial will be conducted over two years. An intention to treat analysis will be conducted. DISCUSSION: This study will provide evidence about the effectiveness of home-collection combined with SMS reminders on chlamydia retesting, repeat infection and reinfection rates in three risk groups. The trial will determine client acceptability and cost effectiveness of this strategy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12611000968976.