Inter-sectoral prioritization of climate technologies: insights from a Technology Needs Assessment for mitigation in Brazil.

Technological development is key for national strategies to cope with the Paris Agreement's goals. Technology Needs Assessments (TNAs) aim to identify, prioritize, and diffuse climate change mitigation and/or adaptation technologies in developing countries. Their methodology includes a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework but, although many countries already conducted a TNA, literature lacks discussions on country-specific processes for a TNA, as it usually follows a one-size-fits-all approach. This paper provides empirical evidence on the importance of country-driven processes that help shaping international programmes into country-specific needs and capabilities. It presents lessons learned from a tailored process for identification, prioritization, and selection of mitigation technologies in the scope of a TNA project for Brazil, an exceptional case of a developing country with strong capacity in integrated assessment modelling (IAM) scenarios for guiding its climate strategies. A previous IAM scenario result allowed pre-selecting technologies in six key economic sectors, while other TNAs prioritized no more than three. This allowed the elaboration of an overall ranking from the MCDA, in contrast to sectoral rankings that are mostly employed in other countries' TNAs. The overall ranking serves not only as a basis for the selection of priority technologies but also provides information on the integrated innovations framework for climate technologies in the country. Further specific findings of the tailored Brazilian TNA approach are discussed in the paper in order to call for the importance that a technology transfer project should not only be country-driven but also conducted through a country-specific process. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11027-022-10025-6.

Air-conditioning and the adaptation cooling deficit in emerging economies.

Increasing temperatures will make space cooling a necessity for maintain comfort and protecting human health, and rising income levels will allow more people to purchase and run air conditioners. Here we show that, in Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Mexico income and humidity-adjusted temperature are common determinants for adopting air-conditioning, but their relative contribution varies in relation to household characteristics. Adoption rates are higher among households living in higher quality dwellings in urban areas, and among those with higher levels of education. Air-conditioning is unevenly distributed across income levels, making evident the existence of a disparity in access to cooling devices. Although the adoption of air-conditioning could increase between twofold and sixteen-fold by 2040, from 64 to 100 million families with access to electricity will not be able to adequately satisfy their demand for thermal comfort. The need to sustain electricity expenditure in response to higher temperatures can also create unequal opportunities to adapt.

Health benefits and control costs of tightening particulate matter emissions standards for coal power plants - The case of Northeast Brazil.

Exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM) caused an estimated 4.2 million deaths worldwide in 2015. However, PM emission standards for power plants vary widely. To explore if the current levels of these standards are sufficiently stringent in a simple cost-benefit framework, we compared the health benefits (avoided monetized health costs) with the control costs of tightening PM emission standards for coal-fired power plants in Northeast (NE) Brazil, where ambient PM concentrations are below World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. We considered three Brazilian PM10 (PMx refers to PM with a diameter under x micrometers) emission standards and a stricter U.S. EPA standard for recent power plants. Our integrated methodology simulates hourly electricity grid dispatch from utility-scale power plants, disperses the resulting PM2.5, and estimates selected human health impacts from PM2.5 exposure using the latest integrated exposure-response model. Since the emissions inventories required to model secondary PM are not available in our study area, we modeled only primary PM so our benefit estimates are conservative. We found that tightening existing PM10 emission standards yields health benefits that are over 60 times greater than emissions control costs in all the scenarios we considered. The monetary value of avoided hospital admissions alone is at least four times as large as the corresponding control costs. These results provide strong arguments for considering tightening PM emission standards for coal-fired power plants worldwide, including in regions that meet WHO guidelines and in developing countries.