Assessment of Changes in Cancer Treatment During the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the US.

Importance: The COVID-19 pandemic led to disruptions in access to health care, including cancer care. The extent of changes in receipt of cancer treatment is unclear. Objective: To evaluate changes in the absolute number, proportion, and cancer treatment modalities provided to patients with newly diagnosed cancer during 2020, the first year of the pandemic. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, adults aged 18 years and older diagnosed with any solid tumor between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2020, were identified using the National Cancer Database. Data analysis was conducted from September 19, 2022, to July 28, 2023. Exposure: First year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Main Outcomes and Measures: The expected number of procedures for each treatment modality (surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, immunotherapy, and hormonal therapy) in 2020 were calculated using historical data (January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2019) with the vector autoregressive method. The difference between expected and observed numbers was evaluated using a generalized estimating equation under assumptions of the Poisson distribution for count data. Changes in the proportion of different types of cancer treatments initiated in 2020 were evaluated using the additive outlier method. Results: A total of 3 504 342 patients (1 214 918 in 2018, mean [SD] age, 64.6 [13.6] years; 1 235 584 in 2019, mean [SD] age, 64.8 [13.6] years; and 1 053 840 in 2020, mean [SD] age, 64.9 [13.6] years) were included. Compared with expected treatment from previous years' trends, there were approximately 98 000 fewer curative intent surgical procedures performed, 38 800 fewer chemotherapy regimens, 55 500 fewer radiotherapy regimens, 6800 fewer immunotherapy regimens, and 32 000 fewer hormonal therapies initiated in 2020. For most cancer sites and stages evaluated, there was no statistically significant change in the type of cancer treatment provided during the first year of the pandemic, the exception being a statistically significant decrease in the proportion of patients receiving breast-conserving surgery and radiotherapy with a simultaneous statistically significant increase in the proportion of patients undergoing mastectomy for treatment of stage I breast cancer during the first months of the pandemic. Conclusions and Relevance: In this large national cohort study, a significant deficit was noted in the number of cancer treatments provided in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Data indicated that this deficit in the number of cancer treatments provided was associated with decreases in the number of cancer diagnoses, not changes in treatment strategies.

Changes in cancer diagnoses and stage distribution during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA: a cross-sectional nationwide assessment.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of COVID-19 disrupted health care, with consequences for cancer diagnoses and outcomes, especially for early stage diagnoses, which generally have favourable prognoses. We aimed to examine nationwide changes in adult cancer diagnoses and stage distribution during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic by cancer type and key sociodemographic factors in the USA. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, adults (aged ≥18 years) newly diagnosed with a first primary malignant cancer between Jan 1, 2018, and Dec 31, 2020, were identified from the US National Cancer Database. We included individuals across 50 US states and the District of Columbia who were treated in hospitals that were Commission on Cancer-accredited during the study period. Individuals whose cancer stage was 0 (except for bladder cancer), occult, or without an applicable American Joint Committee on Cancer staging scheme were excluded. Our primary outcomes were the change in the number and the change in the stage distribution of new cancer diagnoses between 2019 (Jan 1 to Dec 31) and 2020 (Jan 1 to Dec 31). Monthly counts and stage distributions were calculated for all cancers combined and for major cancer types. We also calculated annual change in stage distribution from 2019 to 2020 and adjusted odds ratios (aORs) using multivariable logistic regression, adjusted for age group, sex, race and ethnicity, health insurance status, comorbidity score, US state, zip code-level social deprivation index, and county-level age-adjusted COVID-19 mortality in 2020. Separate models were stratified by sociodemographic and clinical factors. FINDINGS: We identified 2 404 050 adults who were newly diagnosed with cancer during the study period (830 528 in 2018, 849 290 in 2019, and 724 232 in 2020). Mean age was 63·5 years (SD 13·5) and 1 287 049 (53·5%) individuals were women, 1 117 001 (46·5%) were men, and 1 814 082 (75·5%) were non-Hispanic White. The monthly number of new cancer diagnoses (all stages) decreased substantially after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March, 2020, although monthly counts returned to near pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2020. The decrease in diagnoses was largest for stage I disease, leading to lower odds of being diagnosed with stage I disease in 2020 than in 2019 (aOR 0·946 [95% CI 0·939-0·952] for stage I vs stage II-IV); whereas, the odds of being diagnosed with stage IV disease were higher in 2020 than in 2019 (1·074 [1·066-1·083] for stage IV vs stage I-III). This pattern was observed in most cancer types and sociodemographic groups, although was most prominent among Hispanic individuals (0·922 [0·899-0·946] for stage I; 1·110 [1·077-1·144] for stage IV), Asian American and Pacific Islander individuals (0·924 [0·892-0·956] for stage I; 1·096 [1·052-1·142] for stage IV), uninsured individuals (0·917 [0·875-0·961] for stage I; 1·102 [1·055-1·152] for stage IV), Medicare-insured adults younger than 65 years (0·909 [0·882-0·937] for stage I; 1·105 [1·068-1·144] for stage IV), and individuals living in the most socioeconomically deprived areas (0·931 [0·917-0·946] for stage I; 1·106 [1·087-1·125] for stage IV). INTERPRETATION: Substantial cancer underdiagnosis and decreases in the proportion of early stage diagnoses occurred during 2020 in the USA, particularly among medically underserved individuals. Monitoring the long-term effects of the pandemic on morbidity, survival, and mortality is warranted. FUNDING: None.