Cost-effectiveness of disease-modifying therapy for multiple sclerosis: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) in the United States compared to basic supportive therapy without DMT for patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: Using data from a longitudinal MS survey, we generated 10-year disease progression paths for an MS cohort. We used first-order annual Markov models to estimate transitional probabilities. Costs associated with losses of employment were obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Medical costs were estimated using the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services reimbursement rates and other sources. Outcomes were measured as gains in quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) and relapse-free years. Monte Carlo simulations, resampling methods, and sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate model uncertainty. RESULTS: Using DMT for 10 years resulted in modest health gains for all DMTs compared to treatment without DMT (0.082 QALY or <1 quality-adjusted month gain for glatiramer acetate, and 0.126-0.192 QALY gain for interferons). The cost-effectiveness of all DMTs far exceeded $800,000/QALY. Reducing the cost of DMTs had by far the greatest impact on the cost-effectiveness of these treatments (e.g., cost reduction by 67% would improve the probability of Avonex being cost-effective at $164,000/QALY to 50%). Compared to treating patients with all levels of disease, starting DMT earlier was associated with a lower (more favorable) incremental cost-effectiveness ratio compared to initiating treatment at any disease state. CONCLUSION: Use of DMT in MS results in health gains that come at a very high cost.

Assessing disability progression with the Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite.

BACKGROUND: The initial Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite (MSFC) proposal was a three-part composite of quantitative measures of ambulation, upper extremity function, and cognitive function expressed as a single composite Z-score. However, the clinical meaning of an MSFC Z-score change is not obvious. This study instead used MSFC component data to define a patient-specific disease progression event. OBJECTIVE: Evaluate a new method for analyzing disability progression using the MSFC. METHODS: MSFC progression was defined as worsening from baseline on scores of at least one MSFC component by 20% (MSFC Progression-20) or 15% (MSFC Progression-15), sustained for >or=3 months. Progression rates were determined using data from natalizumab clinical studies (Natalizumab Safety and Efficacy in Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis [AFFIRM] and Safety and Efficacy of Natalizumab in Combination With Interferon Beta-1a in Patients With Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis [SENTINEL]). Correlations between MSFC progression and other clinical measures were determined, as was sensitivity to treatment effects. RESULTS: Substantial numbers of patients met MSFC progression criteria, with MSFC Progression-15 being more sensitive than MSFC Progression-20, at both 1 and 2 years. MSFC Progression-20 and MSFC Progression-15 were related significantly to Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score change, relapse rate, and the SF-36 Physical Component Summary (PCS) score change. MSFC Progression-20 and MSFC Progression-15 at 1 year were predictive of EDSS progression at 2 years. Both MSFC progression end points demonstrated treatment effects in AFFIRM, and results were replicated in SENTINEL. CONCLUSION: MSFC Progression-20 and MSFC Progression-15 are sensitive measures of disability progression; correlate with EDSS, relapse rates, and SF-36 PCS; and are capable of demonstrating therapeutic effects in randomized, controlled clinical studies.

Quantitative risk-benefit analysis of natalizumab.

OBJECTIVE: To model the long-term risks and benefits of natalizumab in individuals with relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We created a Markov model to evaluate treatment effects on reducing relapses and slowing disease progression using published natural history data and clinical trial results. Health changes, measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), were based on patient health preferences. Patient cohorts treated with no disease-modifying treatment, natalizumab, subcutaneous interferon beta-1a, and a theoretical "perfect" MS treatment were modeled. Sensitivity analysis was used to explore model uncertainty, including varying risks of developing progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). RESULTS: Treatment with natalizumab resulted in 9.50 QALYs over a 20-year time horizon, a gain of 0.80 QALYs over the untreated cohort and 0.38 QALYs over interferon beta-1a. The health loss due to PML was small (-0.06 QALYs). To offset natalizumab's incremental health gain over interferon beta-1a, the risk had to increase from 1 to 7.6 PML per 1,000 patients treated over 17.9 months. The "perfect" MS treatment accumulated 10.59 QALYs over the 20-year time horizon, 1.89 QALYs above the untreated cohort. Interferon beta-1a resulted in greater QALY gains compared with natalizumab if natalizumab's relative relapse reduction was reduced from 68% to 35% or if interferon beta-1a's relative reduction was increased from 32% to 65%. CONCLUSIONS: A more than sevenfold increase in actual risk of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy was required to decrease natalizumab's health gain below that of interferon beta-1a, and there remains considerable room for additional gains in health (>50%) beyond those already achieved with current therapies.

Quantitative assessment of motor fatigue and strength in MS.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the test-retest reliability of strength and fatigue measurements in patients with MS and in healthy control subjects, and to examine associations among motor fatigue, strength, and ambulatory impairment in MS patients. BACKGROUND: Motor fatigue, defined as the loss of the maximal capacity to generate force during exercise, and weakness are common in patients with MS. METHOD: Twenty ambulatory MS patients and 20 age- and sex-matched healthy control subjects participated in the study. Test-retest reliability was assessed in two identical testing sessions, separated by 3 to 5 days. Maximal voluntary isometric strength was determined by fixed myometry of seven muscle groups on each side. Motor fatigue was assessed using three exercise protocols: sustained maximal contractions (static fatigue), repetitive maximal contractions, and walking as far as 500 m. Four analysis models for static fatigue were examined for their test-retest reliability and their ability to discriminate between normal fatigue and pathologic fatigue from MS. RESULTS: Test-retest reliability in MS patients was excellent for isometric strength and very good for static fatigue. Test-retest reliability was lower for exercise protocols that involved repetitive contractions or ambulation. Compared with healthy control subjects, MS patients were weak in lower extremity muscles, but upper extremity strength was relatively preserved. Fatigue was greater in MS patients, even in muscles that were not clearly weak. There were no significant associations between strength and fatigue in any of the muscles tested. A fatigue analysis model based on the area under the force-versus-time curve gave the best combination of reliability and sensitivity to detect differences between MS patients and healthy control subjects. CONCLUSIONS: Strength and motor fatigue can be measured reliably in patients with MS. MS patients experience more fatigue than healthy control subjects during sustained contractions, repetitive contractions, and ambulation. Motor fatigue appears to be distinct from weakness because the degree of fatigue was not associated with the degree of weakness in individual muscles. Quantitative assessment of strength and fatigue may be useful to monitor changes in motor function over time in MS patients.

Quantitative assessment of sustained-release 4-aminopyridine for symptomatic treatment of multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy of 4-aminopyridine sustained release (4AP SR) (fampridine, EL-970) using quantitative measures of motor function in multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. BACKGROUND: In vitro, 4AP improves conduction through demyelinated axons. A previous multicenter trial of 4AP SR using the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) as the primary outcome was unable to establish clinical efficacy. DESIGN/METHODS: Ten MS patients with stable motor deficits (EDSS 6.0-7.5) were given 4AP SR 17.5 mg bid and placebo for 1 week each in a double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover trial. Time to walk 8 meters, time to climb four stairs, maximum voluntary isometric contraction measured quantitatively (MVICT), manual muscle testing (MMT), grip strength, EDSS, and the patient's global impression were measured. RESULTS: Timed gait was improved on 4AP SR compared with placebo in 9 of 10 subjects (p = 0.02). Timed stair climbing, MVICT, MMT, grip strength, and EDSS showed nonsignificant improvements on 4AP SR. Based on their global impressions, seven subjects preferred 4AP SR over placebo; only one preferred placebo. There were no serious side effects. CONCLUSION: 4AP SR improved motor function in MS patients. The quantitative outcomes used in this study permit more sensitive evaluation of the therapeutic effect and promise to be useful in future trials of symptomatic treatments for MS.