The global impact of household contact management for children on multidrug-resistant and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis cases, deaths, and health-system costs in 2019: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimates suggest that at least 30 000 children develop multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis each year. Despite household contact management (HCM) being widely recommended, it is rarely done. METHODS: We used mathematical modelling to evaluate the potential country-level and global effects and cost-effectiveness of multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis HCM for children younger than 15 years who are living with a person with newly diagnosed multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis. We compared a baseline of no HCM with several HCM strategies and tuberculosis preventive therapy regimens, calculating the effect on multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis cases, deaths, and health-system costs. All HCM strategies involved the screening of children for prevalent tuberculosis disease but with tuberculosis preventive therapy either not given or targeted dependent on age, HIV status, and result of tuberculin skin test. We evaluated the use of fluoroquinolones (ie, levofloxacin and moxifloxacin), delamanid, and bedaquiline as tuberculosis preventive therapy. FINDINGS: Compared with a baseline without HCM, HCM for all adults diagnosed with multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis in 2019 would have entailed screening 227 000 children (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 205 000-252 000) younger than 15 years globally, and averted 2350 tuberculosis deaths (1940-2790), costing an additional US$63 million (74-95 million). If all the children within the household who had been in contact with the person with multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis received tuberculosis preventive therapy with levofloxacin, 5620 incident tuberculosis cases (95% UI 4540-6890) and an additional 1240 deaths (970-1540) would have been prevented. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were lower than half of per-capita gross domestic product for most interventions in most countries. Targeting only children younger than 5 years and those living with HIV reduced the number of incident cases and deaths averted, but improved cost-effectiveness. Tuberculosis preventive therapy with delamanid increased the effect, in terms of reduced incidence and mortality, compared with levofloxacin. INTERPRETATION: HCM for patients with multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis is cost-effective in most settings and could avert a substantial proportion of multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis cases and deaths in children globally. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council.

Quantifying the global number of tuberculosis survivors: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: People who survive tuberculosis face clinical and societal consequences after recovery, including increased risks of recurrent tuberculosis, premature death, reduced lung function, and ongoing stigma. To describe the size of this issue, we aimed to estimate the number of individuals who developed first-episode tuberculosis between 1980 and 2019, the number who survived to 2020, and the number who have been treated within the past 5 years or 2 years. METHODS: In this modelling study, we estimated the number of people who survived treated tuberculosis using country-level WHO data on tuberculosis case notifications, excluding those who died during treatment. We estimated the number of individuals surviving untreated tuberculosis using the difference between WHO country-level incidence estimates and notifications, applying published age-stratified and HIV-stratified case fatality ratios. To estimate survival with time, post-tuberculosis life tables were developed for each country-year by use of UN World Population Prospects 2019 mortality rates and published post-tuberculosis mortality hazard ratios. FINDINGS: Between 1980 and 2019, we estimate that 363 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 287 million-438 million) developed tuberculosis, of whom 172 million (169 million-174 million) were treated. Individuals who developed tuberculosis between 1980 and 2019 had lived 3480 million life-years (95% UI 3040 million-3920 million) after tuberculosis by 2020, with survivors younger than 15 years at the time of tuberculosis development contributing 12% (95% UI 7-17) of these life-years. We estimate that 155 million tuberculosis survivors (95% UI 138 million-171 million) were alive in 2020, the largest proportion (47% [37-57]) of whom were in the WHO South-East Asia region. Of the tuberculosis survivors who were alive in 2020, we estimate that 18% (95% UI 16-20) were treated in the past 5 years and 8% (7-9) were treated in the past 2 years. INTERPRETATION: The number of tuberculosis survivors alive in 2020 is more than ten times the estimated annual tuberculosis incidence. Interventions to alleviate respiratory morbidity, screen for and prevent recurrent tuberculosis, and reduce stigma should be immediately prioritised for recently treated tuberculosis survivors. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, the UK Department for International Development, the National Institute for Health Research, and the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership.

Levofloxacin versus placebo for the prevention of tuberculosis disease in child contacts of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: study protocol for a phase III cluster randomised controlled trial (TB-CHAMP).

BACKGROUND: Multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) presents a challenge for global TB control. Treating individuals with MDR-TB infection to prevent progression to disease could be an effective public health strategy. Young children are at high risk of developing TB disease following infection and are commonly infected by an adult in their household. Identifying young children with household exposure to MDR-TB and providing them with MDR-TB preventive therapy could reduce the risk of disease progression. To date, no trials of MDR-TB preventive therapy have been completed and World Health Organization guidelines suggest close observation with no active treatment. METHODS: The tuberculosis child multidrug-resistant preventive therapy (TB-CHAMP) trial is a phase III cluster randomised placebo-controlled trial to assess the efficacy of levofloxacin in young child contacts of MDR-TB cases. The trial is taking place at three sites in South Africa where adults with MDR-TB are identified. If a child aged < 5 years lives in their household, we assess the adult index case, screen all household members for TB disease and evaluate any child aged < 5 years for trial eligibility. Eligible children are randomised by household to receive daily levofloxacin (15-20 mg/kg) or matching placebo for six months. Children are closely monitored for disease development, drug tolerability and adverse events. The primary endpoint is incident TB disease or TB death by one year after recruitment. We will enrol 1556 children from approximately 778 households with an average of two eligible children per household. Recruitment will run for 18-24 months with all children followed for 18 months after treatment. Qualitative and health economic evaluations are embedded in the trial. DISCUSSION: If the TB-CHAMP trial demonstrates that levofloxacin is effective in preventing TB disease in young children who have been exposed to MDR-TB and that it is safe, well tolerated, acceptable and cost-effective, we would expect that that this intervention would rapidly transfer into policy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN92634082 . Registered on 31 March 2016.

Challenges of using new and repurposed drugs for the treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in children.

INTRODUCTION: New and repurposed antituberculosis drugs are urgently needed to more safely and effectively treat multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) in children. Multiple challenges limit timely access to new MDR-TB treatments in children. Areas covered: Diagnosis of MDR-TB in children remains a barrier, with few children with MDR-TB diagnosed and treated. Other barriers to timely access to new and repurposed drugs are discussed, and include delayed initiation of paediatric trials, limited funding for paediatric drug development, fragmented regulatory systems and operational challenges. The status of access to current repurposed and novel drugs is presented. Expert commentary: More timely initiation of paediatric trials is needed and paediatric work should happen and be funded in parallel with each phase of adult trials. Better quality data, increased regulator resources and expertise, harmonization of regulatory requirements across borders/organisations and registration fee waivers would improve registration timelines. Improved diagnosis, recording and reporting will establish better demand. Improved systems for procurement and supply chain management would reduce in-country operational barriers to getting medications to children. The challenges must be addressed to ensure timely and equitable access to new drugs and regimens that are urgently needed for effective, safe and shorter treatment of children with MDR-TB.

The global burden of tuberculosis mortality in children: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis in children is increasingly recognised as an important component of the global tuberculosis burden, with an estimated 1 million cases in 2015. Although younger children are vulnerable to severe forms of tuberculosis disease, no age-disaggregated estimates of paediatric tuberculosis mortality exist, and tuberculosis has never been included in official estimates of under-5 child mortality. We aimed to produce a global mortality burden estimate in children using a complementary approach not dependent on vital registration data. METHODS: In this mathematical modelling study, we estimated deaths in children younger than 5 years and those aged 5-14 years for 217 countries and territories using a case-fatality-based approach. We used paediatric tuberculosis notification data and HIV and antiretroviral treatment estimates to disaggregate the WHO paediatric tuberculosis incidence estimates by age, HIV, and treatment status. We then applied systematic review evidence on corresponding case-fatality ratios. FINDINGS: We estimated that 239 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 194 000-298 000) children younger than 15 years died from tuberculosis worldwide in 2015; 80% (191 000, 95% UI 132 000-257 000) of these deaths were in children younger than 5 years. More than 70% (182 000, 140 000-239 000) of deaths occurred in the WHO southeast Asia and Africa regions. We estimated that 39 000 (17%, 23 000-73 000) paediatric tuberculosis deaths worldwide were in children with HIV infections, with 31 000 (36%, 19 000-59 000) in the WHO Africa region. More than 96% (230 000, 185 000-289 000) of all tuberculosis deaths occurred in children not receiving tuberculosis treatment. INTERPRETATION: Tuberculosis is a top ten cause of death in children worldwide and a key omission from previous analyses of under-5 mortality. Almost all these deaths occur in children not on tuberculosis treatment, implying substantial scope to reduce this burden. FUNDING: UNITAID, National Institutes of Health, and National Institute for Health Research.

Why the Convention on the Rights of the Child must become a guiding framework for the realization of the rights of children affected by tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Until recently, paediatric tuberculosis (TB) has been relatively neglected by the broader TB and the maternal and child health communities. Human rights-based approaches to children affected by TB could be powerful; however, awareness and application of such strategies is not widespread. DISCUSSION: We summarize the current challenges faced by children affected by TB, including: consideration of their family context; the limitations of preventive, diagnostic and treatment options; paucity of paediatric-specific research; failure in implementation of interventions; and stigma. We examine the articles of the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC) and relate them to childhood TB. Specifically, we focus on the five core principles of the CRC: children's inherent right to life and States' duties towards their survival and development; children's right to enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of health; non-discrimination; best interests of the child; and respect for the views of the child. We highlight where children's rights are violated and how a human rights-based approach should be used as a tool to help children affected by TB, particularly in light of the Sustainable Development Goals and their focus on universality and leaving no one behind. The article aims to bridge the gap between those providing paediatric TB clinical care and conducting research, and those working in the fields of human rights policy and advocacy to promote a human rights-based approach for children affected by TB based upon the Convention on the Rights of the Child.

Assessing the impact of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in children: an exploratory qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: While the prevalence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) is high among children in the Western Cape of South Africa, the psychosocial implications of treatment for children with MDR-TB remain poorly understood. We sought to explore how MDR-TB and its treatment impact children on an individual, familial, and social level. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 20 children and caregivers purposively sampled from a prospective clinical cohort of children. The sample was stratified by age at the start of treatment (children >10 years, and 5-10 years). Caregiver proxy interviews were conducted with younger children, supplemented with child interviews; older children were interviewed directly, supplemented with caregiver proxy interviews. Data were analysed using grounded theory. RESULTS: Findings revealed pill volume and adverse effects produced significant physical, psychological and academic disturbances in children. Adverse effects related to the medication were important obstacles to treatment adherence. While there appear to be no long-lasting effects in younger children, a few older children showed evidence of persisting internalised stigma. Caregivers suffered important treatment-related financial and psychological costs. Community support, notably through the continued involvement of children in strong social networks, promoted resilience among children and their families. CONCLUSIONS: We found that the current treatment regimen for childhood MDR-TB has significant psychological, academic, and financial impacts on children and their families. There is a need for psychosocial support of children and caregivers to mitigate the negative effects of community stigma, and to manage the stressors associated with chronic illness.

Burden of childhood tuberculosis in 22 high-burden countries: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Confirmation of a diagnosis of tuberculosis in children (aged <15 years) is challenging; under-reporting can result even when children do present to health services. Direct incidence estimates are unavailable, and WHO estimates build on paediatric notifications, with adjustment for incomplete surveillance by the same factor as adult notifications. We aimed to estimate the incidence of infection and disease in children, the prevalence of infection, and household exposure in the 22 countries with a high burden of the disease. METHODS: Within a mechanistic mathematical model, we combined estimates of adult tuberculosis prevalence in 2010, with aspects of the natural history of paediatric tuberculosis. In a household model, we estimated household exposure and infection. We accounted for the effects of age, BCG vaccination, and HIV infection. Additionally, we tested sensitivity to key structural assumptions by repeating all analyses without variation in BCG efficacy by latitude. FINDINGS: The median number of children estimated to be sharing a household with an individual with infectious tuberculosis in 2010 was 15,319,701 (IQR 13,766,297-17,061,821). In 2010, the median number of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infections in children was 7,591,759 (5,800,053-9,969,780), and 650,977 children (424,871-983,118) developed disease. Cumulative exposure meant that the median number of children with latent infection in 2010 was 53,234,854 (41,111,669-68,959,804). The model suggests that 35% (23-54) of paediatric cases of tuberculosis in the 15 countries reporting notifications by age in 2010 were detected. India is predicted to account for 27% (22-33) of the total burden of paediatric tuberculosis in the 22 countries. The predicted proportion of tuberculosis burden in children for each country correlated with incidence, varying between 4% and 21%. INTERPRETATION: Our model has shown that the incidence of paediatric tuberculosis is higher than the number of notifications, particularly in young children. Estimates of current household exposure and cumulative infection suggest an enormous opportunity for preventive treatment. FUNDING: UNITAID and the US Agency for International Development.