Cost-effectiveness and public health impact of typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction strategies in Bangladesh.

PURPOSE: Typhoid fever causes substantial morbidity and mortality in Bangladesh. The government of Bangladesh plans to introduce typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCV) in its expanded program on immunization (EPI) schedule. However, the optimal introduction strategy in addition to the costs and benefits of such a program are unclear. METHODS: We extended an existing mathematical model of typhoid transmission to integrate cost data, clinical incidence data, and recently conducted serosurveys in urban, semi-urban, and rural areas. In our primary analysis, we evaluated the status quo (i.e., no vaccination) and eight vaccine introduction strategies including routine and 1-time campaign strategies, which differed by age groups targeted and geographic focus. Model outcomes included clinical incidence, seroincidence, deaths, costs, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each strategy. We adopted a societal perspective, 10-year model time horizon, and 3 % annual discount rate. We performed probabilistic, one-way, and scenario sensitivity analyses including adopting a healthcare perspective and alternate model time horizons. RESULTS: We projected that all TCV strategies would be cost saving compared to the status quo. The preferred strategy was a nationwide introduction of TCV at 9-12 months of age with a single catch-up campaign for children ages 1-15, which was cost saving compared to all other strategies and the status quo. In the 10 years following implementation, we projected this strategy would avert 3.77 million cases (95 % CrI: 2.60 - 5.18), 11.31 thousand deaths (95 % CrI: 3.77 - 23.60), and save $172.35 million (95 % CrI: -14.29 - 460.59) compared to the status quo. Our findings were broadly robust to changes in parameter values and willingness-to-pay thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: We projected that nationwide TCV introduction with a catch-up campaign would substantially reduce typhoid incidence and very likely be cost saving in Bangladesh.

Early Life Experiences and Trajectories of Cognitive Development.

BACKGROUND: Multiple factors constrain the trajectories of child cognitive development, but the drivers that differentiate the trajectories are unknown. We examine how multiple early life experiences differentiate patterns of cognitive development over the first 5 years of life in low-and middle-income settings. METHODS: Cognitive development of 835 children from the Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) multisite observational cohort study was assessed at 6, 15, 24 (Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development), and 60 months (Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence). Markers of socioeconomic status, infection, illness, dietary intake and status, anthropometry, and maternal factors were also assessed. Trajectories of development were determined by latent class-mixed models, and factors associated with class membership were examined by discriminant analysis. RESULTS: Five trajectory groups of cognitive development are described. The variables that best discriminated between trajectories included presence of stimulating and learning resources in the home, emotional or verbal responsivity of caregiver and the safety of the home environment (especially at 24 and 60 months), proportion of days (0-24 months) for which the child had diarrhea, acute lower respiratory infection, fever or vomiting, maternal reasoning ability, mean nutrient densities of zinc and phytate, and total energy from complementary foods (9-24 months). CONCLUSIONS: A supporting and nurturing environment was the variable most strongly differentiating the most and least preferable trajectories of cognitive development. In addition, a higher quality diet promoted cognitive development while prolonged illness was indicative of less favorable patterns of development.

Infant Nutritional Status, Feeding Practices, Enteropathogen Exposure, Socioeconomic Status, and Illness Are Associated with Gut Barrier Function As Assessed by the Lactulose Mannitol Test in the MAL-ED Birth Cohort.

The lactulose mannitol (LM) dual sugar permeability test is the most commonly used test of environmental enteropathy in developing countries. However, there is a large but conflicting literature on its association with enteric infection and host nutritional status. We conducted a longitudinal cohort using a single field protocol and comparable laboratory procedures to examine intestinal permeability in multiple, geographically diverse pediatric populations. Using a previously published systematic review to guide the selection of factors potentially associated with LM test results, we examined the relationships between these factors and mucosal breach, represented by percent lactulose excretion; absorptive area, represented by percent mannitol excretion; and gut barrier function, represented by the L/M ratio. A total of 6,602 LM tests were conducted in 1,980 children at 3, 6, 9, and 15 months old; percent lactulose excretion, percent mannitol excretion, and the L/M ratio were expressed as age- and sex-specific normalized values using the Brazil cohort as the reference population. Among the factors considered, recent severe diarrhea, lower socioeconomic status, and recent asymptomatic enteropathogen infections were associated with decreased percent mannitol excretion and higher L/M ratios. Poorer concurrent weight-for-age, infection, and recent breastfeeding were associated with increased percent lactulose excretion and increased L/M ratios. Our results support previously reported associations between the L/M ratio and factors related to child nutritional status and enteropathogen exposure. These results were remarkably consistent across sites and support the hypothesis that the frequency of these exposures in communities living in poverty leads to alterations in gut barrier function.

Age and Sex Normalization of Intestinal Permeability Measures for the Improved Assessment of Enteropathy in Infancy and Early Childhood: Results From the MAL-ED Study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to describe changes in intestinal permeability in early childhood in diverse epidemiologic settings. METHODS: In a birth cohort study, the lactulose:mannitol (L:M) test was administered to 1980 children at 4 time points in the first 24 months of life in 8 countries. Data from the Brazil site with an incidence of diarrhea similar to that seen in the United States and no growth faltering was used as an internal study reference to derive age- and sex-specific z scores for mannitol and lactulose recoveries and the L:M ratio. RESULTS: A total of 6602 tests demonstrated mannitol recovery, lactulose recovery, and the L:M ratio were associated with country, sex, and age. There was heterogeneity in the recovery of both probes between sites with mean mannitol recovery ranging for 1.34% to 5.88%, lactulose recovery of 0.19% to 0.58%, and L:M ratios 0.10 to 0.17 in boys of 3 months of age across different sites. We observed strong sex-specific differences in both mannitol and lactulose recovery, with boys having higher recovery of both probes. Alterations in intestinal barrier function increased in most sites from 3 to 9 months of age and plateaued or diminished from 9 to 15 months of age. CONCLUSIONS: Alterations in recovery of the probes differ markedly in different epidemiologic contexts in children living in the developing world. The rate of change in the L:M-z ratio was most rapid and consistently disparate from the reference standard in the period between 6 and 9 months of age, suggesting that this is a critical period of physiologic impact of enteropathy in these populations.

Vaccine coverage and adherence to EPI schedules in eight resource poor settings in the MAL-ED cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Launched in 1974, the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) is estimated to prevent two-three million deaths annually from polio, diphtheria, tuberculosis, pertussis, measles, and tetanus. Additional lives could be saved through better understanding what influences adherence to the EPI schedule in specific settings. METHODS: The Etiology, Risk Factors and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) study followed cohorts in eight sites in South Asia, Africa, and South America and monitored vaccine receipt over the first two years of life for the children enrolled in the study. Vaccination histories were obtained monthly from vaccination cards, local clinic records and/or caregiver reports. Vaccination histories were compared against the prescribed EPI schedules for each country, and coverage rates were examined in relation to the timing of vaccination. The influence of socioeconomic factors on vaccine timing and coverage was also considered. RESULTS: Coverage rates for EPI vaccines varied between sites and by type of vaccine; overall, coverage was highest in the Nepal and Bangladesh sites and lowest in the Tanzania and Brazil sites. Bacillus Calmette-Guérin coverage was high across all sites, 87-100%, whereas measles vaccination rates ranged widely, 73-100%. Significant delays between the scheduled administration age and actual vaccination date were present in all sites, especially for measles vaccine where less than 40% were administered on schedule. A range of socioeconomic factors were significantly associated with vaccination status in study children but these results were largely site-specific. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the need to improve measles vaccination rates and reduce delayed vaccination to achieve EPI targets related to the establishment of herd immunity and reduction in disease transmission.

Epidemiology and Impact of Campylobacter Infection in Children in 8 Low-Resource Settings: Results From the MAL-ED Study.

BACKGROUND: Enteropathogen infections have been associated with enteric dysfunction and impaired growth in children in low-resource settings. In a multisite birth cohort study (MAL-ED), we describe the epidemiology and impact of Campylobacter infection in the first 2 years of life. METHODS: Children were actively followed up until 24 months of age. Diarrheal and nondiarrheal stool samples were collected and tested by enzyme immunoassay for Campylobacter Stool and blood samples were assayed for markers of intestinal permeability and inflammation. RESULTS: A total of 1892 children had 7601 diarrheal and 26 267 nondiarrheal stool samples tested for Campylobacter We describe a high prevalence of infection, with most children (n = 1606; 84.9%) having a Campylobacter-positive stool sample by 1 year of age. Factors associated with a reduced risk of Campylobacter detection included exclusive breastfeeding (risk ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, .47-.67), treatment of drinking water (0.76; 0.70-0.83), access to an improved latrine (0.89; 0.82-0.97), and recent macrolide antibiotic use (0.68; 0.63-0.74). A high Campylobacter burden was associated with a lower length-for-age Z score at 24 months (-1.82; 95% confidence interval, -1.94 to -1.70) compared with a low burden (-1.49; -1.60 to -1.38). This association was robust to confounders and consistent across sites. Campylobacter infection was also associated with increased intestinal permeability and intestinal and systemic inflammation. CONCLUSIONS: Campylobacter was prevalent across diverse settings and associated with growth shortfalls. Promotion of exclusive breastfeeding, drinking water treatment, improved latrines, and targeted antibiotic treatment may reduce the burden of Campylobacter infection and improve growth in children in these settings.

Assessment of environmental enteropathy in the MAL-ED cohort study: theoretical and analytic framework.

Individuals in the developing world live in conditions of intense exposure to enteric pathogens due to suboptimal water and sanitation. These environmental conditions lead to alterations in intestinal structure, function, and local and systemic immune activation that are collectively referred to as environmental enteropathy (EE). This condition, although poorly defined, is likely to be exacerbated by undernutrition as well as being responsible for permanent growth deficits acquired in early childhood, vaccine failure, and loss of human potential. This article addresses the underlying theoretical and analytical frameworks informing the methodology proposed by the Etiology, Risk Factors and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) cohort study to define and quantify the burden of disease caused by EE within a multisite cohort. Additionally, we will discuss efforts to improve, standardize, and harmonize laboratory practices within the MAL-ED Network. These efforts will address current limitations in the understanding of EE and its burden on children in the developing world.