Secular trend, seasonality and effects of a community-based intervention on neonatal mortality: follow-up of a cluster-randomised trial in Quang Ninh province, Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Little is know about whether the effects of community engagement interventions for child survival in low-income and middle-income settings are sustained. Seasonal variation and secular trend may blur the data. Neonatal mortality was reduced in a cluster-randomised trial in Vietnam where laywomen facilitated groups composed of local stakeholders employing a problem-solving approach for 3 years. In this analysis, we aim at disentangling the secular trend, the seasonal variation and the effect of the intervention on neonatal mortality during and after the trial. METHODS: In Quang Ninh province, 44 communes were allocated to intervention and 46 to control. Births and neonatal deaths were assessed in a baseline survey in 2005, monitored during the trial in 2008-2011 and followed up by a survey in 2014. Time series analyses were performed on monthly neonatal mortality data. RESULTS: There were 30 187 live births and 480 neonatal deaths. The intervention reduced the neonatal mortality from 19.1 to 11.6 per 1000 live births. The reduction was sustained 3 years after the trial. The control areas reached a similar level at the time of follow-up. Time series decomposition analysis revealed a downward trend in the intervention areas during the trial that was not found in the control areas. Neonatal mortality peaked in the hot and wet summers. CONCLUSIONS: A community engagement intervention resulted in a lower neonatal mortality rate that was sustained but not further reduced after the end of the trial. When decomposing time series of neonatal mortality, a clear downward trend was demonstrated in intervention but not in control areas. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN44599712, Post-results.

Cost-effectiveness of prenatal food and micronutrient interventions on under-five mortality and stunting: Analysis of data from the MINIMat randomized trial, Bangladesh.

INTRODUCTION: Nutrition interventions may have favourable as well as unfavourable effects. The Maternal and Infant Nutrition Interventions in Matlab (MINIMat), with early prenatal food and micronutrient supplementation, reduced infant mortality and were reported to be very cost-effective. However, the multiple micronutrients (MMS) supplement was associated with an increased risk of stunted growth in infancy and early childhood. This unfavourable outcome was not included in the previous cost-effectiveness analysis. The aim of this study is to evaluate whether the MINIMat interventions remain cost-effective in view of both favourable (decreased under-five-years mortality) and unfavourable (increased stunting) outcomes. METHOD: Pregnant women in rural Bangladesh, where food insecurity still is prevalent, were randomized to early (E) or usual (U) invitation to be given food supplementation and daily doses of 30 mg, or 60 mg iron with 400 µg of folic acid, or MMS with 15 micronutrients including 30 mg iron and 400 µg of folic acid. E reduced stunting at 4.5 years compared with U, MMS increased stunting at 4.5 years compared with Fe60, while the combination EMMS reduced infant mortality compared with UFe60. The outcome measure used was disability adjusted life years (DALYs), a measure of overall disease burden that combines years of life lost due to premature mortality (under five-year mortality) and years lived with disability (stunting). Incremental cost effectiveness ratios were calculated using cost data from already published studies. RESULTS: By incrementing UFe60 (standard practice) to EMMS, one DALY could be averted at a cost of US$24. CONCLUSION: When both favourable and unfavourable outcomes were included in the analysis, early prenatal food and multiple micronutrient interventions remained highly cost effective and seem to be meaningful from a public health perspective.

Trends and social differentials in child mortality in Rwanda 1990-2010: results from three demographic and health surveys.

BACKGROUND: Rwanda has embarked on ambitious programmes to provide equitable health services and reduce mortality in childhood. Evidence from other countries indicates that advances in child survival often have come at the expense of increasing inequity. Our aims were to analyse trends and social differentials in mortality before the age of 5 years in Rwanda from 1990 to 2010. METHODS: We performed secondary analyses of data from three Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 2000, 2005 and 2010 in Rwanda. These surveys included 34 790 children born between 1990 and 2010 to women aged 15-49 years. The main outcome measures were neonatal mortality rates (NMR) and under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) over time, and in relation to mother's educational level, urban or rural residence and household wealth. Generalised linear mixed effects models and a mixed effects Cox model (frailty model) were used, with adjustments for confounders and cluster sampling method. RESULTS: Mortality rates in Rwanda peaked in 1994 at the time of the genocide (NMR 60/1000 live births, 95% CI 51 to 65; U5MR 238/1000 live births, 95% CI 226 to 251). The 1990s and the first half of the 2000s were characterised by a marked rural/urban divide and inequity in child survival between maternal groups with different levels of education. Towards the end of the study period (2005-2010) NMR had been reduced to 26/1000 (95% CI 23 to 29) and U5MR to 65/1000 (95% CI 61 to 70), with little or no difference between urban and rural areas, and household wealth groups, while children of women with no education still had significantly higher U5MR. CONCLUSIONS: Recent reductions in child mortality in Rwanda have concurred with improved social equity in child survival. Current challenges include the prevention of newborn deaths.

Social equity in perinatal survival: a case-control study at hospitals in Kigali, Rwanda.

AIM: Rwanda has invested heavily in improving maternal and child health, but knowledge is limited regarding social equity in perinatal survival. We analysed whether perinatal mortality risks differed between social groups in hospitals in the country's capital. METHODS: A case-control study was carried out on singleton births aged at least 22 weeks of gestation and born in district or tertiary referral hospitals in Kigali from July 2013 to May 2014. Perinatal deaths were recorded as they occurred, with the next two surviving neonates born in the same hospital selected as controls. Conditional logistic regression was used to determine social determinants of perinatal death after adjustments for potential confounders. RESULTS: We analysed 234 perinatal deaths and 468 controls. Rural residence was linked to an increased risk of perinatal death (OR = 3.31, 95% CI 1.43-7.61), but maternal education or household asset score levels were not. Having no health insurance (OR = 2.11, 95% CI 0.91-4.89) was associated with an increased risk of perinatal death, compared to having community health insurance. CONCLUSION: Living in a rural area and having no health insurance were associated with an increased risk of perinatal mortality rates in the Rwandan capital, but maternal education and household assets were not.