Patients on vitamin K treatment: is switching to direct-acting oral anticoagulation cost-effective? A target trial on a prospective cohort.

AIMS: Direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have, to a substantial degree, replaced vitamin K antagonists (VKA) as treatments for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. However, evidence on the real-world causal effects of switching patients from VKA to DOAC is lacking. We aimed to assess the empirical incremental cost-effectiveness of switching patients to DOAC compared with maintaining VKA treatment. METHODS: The target trial approach was applied to the prospective observational Swiss-AF cohort, which enrolled 2415 AF patients from 2014 to 2017. Clinical data, healthcare resource utilisation and EQ-5D-based utilities representing quality of life were collected in yearly follow-ups. Health insurance claims were available for 1024 patients (42.4%). Overall survival, quality-of-life, costs from the Swiss statutory health insurance perspective and cost-effectiveness were estimated by emulating a target trial in which patients were randomly assigned to switch to DOAC or maintain VKA treatment. RESULTS: 228 patients switching from VKA to DOAC compared with 563 patients maintaining VKA treatment had no overall survival advantage over a 5-year observation period (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.45, 1.55). The estimated gain in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) was 0.003 over the 5-year period at an incremental costs of CHF 23 033 (€ 20 940). The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was CHF 425 852 (€ 387 138) per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: Applying a causal inference method to real-world data, we could not demonstrate switching to DOACs to be cost-effective for AF patients with at least 1 year of VKA treatment. Our estimates align with results from a previous randomised trial.

Estimating the cost impact of atrial fibrillation using a prospective cohort study and population-based controls.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) costs are expected to be substantial, but cost comparisons with the general population are scarce. Using data from the prospective Swiss-AF cohort study and population-based controls, we estimated the impact of AF on direct healthcare costs from the Swiss statutory health insurance perspective. METHODS: Swiss-AF patients, enrolled from 2014 to 2017, had documented, prevalent AF. We analysed 5 years of follow-up, where clinical data, and health insurance claims in 42% of the patients were collected on a yearly basis. Controls from a health insurance claims database were matched for demographics and region. The cost impact of AF was estimated using five different methods: (1) ordinary least square regression (OLS), (2) OLS-based two-part modelling, (3) generalised linear model-based two-part modelling, (4) 1:1 nearest neighbour propensity score matching and (5) a cost adjudication algorithm using Swiss-AF data non-comparatively and considering clinical data. Cost of illness at the Swiss national level was modelled using obtained cost estimates, prevalence from the Global Burden of Disease Project, and Swiss population data. RESULTS: The 1024 Swiss-AF patients with available claims data were compared with 16 556 controls without known AF. AF patients accrued CHF5600 (EUR5091) of AF-related direct healthcare costs per year, in addition to non-AF-related healthcare costs of CHF11100 (EUR10 091) per year accrued by AF patients and controls. All five methods yielded comparable results. AF-related costs at the national level were estimated to amount to 1% of Swiss healthcare expenditure. CONCLUSIONS: We robustly found direct medical costs of AF patients were 50% higher than those of population-based controls. Such information on the incremental cost burden of AF may support healthcare capacity planning.

Real-World Cost-Effectiveness of Pulmonary Vein Isolation for Atrial Fibrillation: A Target Trial Approach.

OBJECTIVES: Randomized controlled trials of pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) for treating atrial fibrillation (AF) have proven the procedure's efficacy. Studies assessing its empirical cost-effectiveness outside randomized trial settings are lacking. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of PVI versus medical therapy for AF. METHODS: We followed a target trial approach using the Swiss-AF cohort, a prospective observational cohort study that enrolled patients with AF between 2014 and 2017. Resource utilization and cost information were collected through claims data. Quality of life was measured with EQ-5D-3L utilities. We estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) from the perspective of the Swiss statutory health insurance system. RESULTS: Patients undergoing PVI compared with medical therapy had a 5-year overall survival advantage with a hazard ratio of 0.75 (95% CI 0.46-1.21; P = .69) and a 19.8% SD improvement in quality of life (95% CI 15.5-22.9; P < .001), at an incremental cost of 29 604 Swiss francs (CHF) (95% CI 16 354-42 855; P < .001). The estimated ICER was CHF 158 612 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained within a 5-year time horizon. Assuming similar health effects and costs over 5 additional years changed the ICER to CHF 82 195 per QALY gained. Results were robust to the sensitivity analyses performed. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that PVI might be a cost-effective intervention within the Swiss healthcare context in a 10-year time horizon, but unlikely to be so at 5 years, if a willingness-to-pay threshold of CHF 100 000 per QALY gained is assumed. Given data availability, we find target trial designs are a valuable tool for assessing the cost-effectiveness of healthcare interventions outside of randomized controlled trial settings.

The cancer premium - explaining differences in prices for cancer vs non-cancer drugs with efficacy and epidemiological endpoints in the US, Germany, and Switzerland: a cross sectional study.

Background: High treatment prices of new cancer drugs are a global public health challenge to patients and healthcare systems. Policymakers in the US and Europe are debating reforms to drug pricing. The objective of this study was to assess whether drug efficacy or epidemiological characteristics (prevalence, incidence, mortality) explain the gap in treatment prices between cancer and non-cancer drugs in the US, Germany, and Switzerland. Methods: This cross-sectional study identified all new drugs approved in the US, Germany, and Switzerland between 2011 and 2020. Drug efficacy was extracted from pivotal trials, drug prices from public and commercial databases, and epidemiological characteristics from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. We used regression models to explain drug prices with drug efficacy and epidemiological characteristics (prevalence, incidence, mortality). Findings: The cohort included 181 drugs, including 68 (37.5%) drugs approved for treatment of cancer. A significant negative correlation was found between incidence/prevalence and treatment prices, and a significant positive correlation was observed between mortality and treatment prices for both, cancer and non-cancer drugs. A significant association between relative drug efficacy and treatment prices of drugs was observed, however, less pronounced for cancer drugs. Our regression estimates indicated that after adjusting for efficacy and epidemiological characteristics, cancer drugs were on average approximately three times more expensive compared to non-cancer drugs in all three countries, indicating a cancer premium; i.e., treatment prices of cancer drugs were on average USD 74,412 (95% CI [62,810; 86,015]) more expensive in the US compared to non-cancer drugs, USD 37,770 (95% CI [26,175; 49,367]) more expensive in Germany, and USD 32,801 (95% CI [27,048; 38,555]) more expensive in Switzerland. Our model explained 72% of the variance in observed prices (R2). Interpretation: Drug pricing reforms should target the cancer premium to improve access of patients to cancer drugs as well as to achieve equity across the different therapeutic areas and sustainability in the health care systems. Funding: This study was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF, grant number PCEGP1_194607) and the Swiss Cancer Research Foundation (Krebsforschung Schweiz).

Delivering Safe Surgical Care While Simultaneously Caring for Patients With COVID-19; Assessment of Patient Selection, Volume and Outcomes in a Tertiary Care Hospital.

Objectives: Compare patient selection and postoperative outcomes after surgical treatment for gastrointestinal disorders before and during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Methods: We assessed gastrointestinal surgeries conducted at a tertiary center from 2017-2021 for differences in patient populations and procedures before (up to February 2020) and during the pandemic (March 2020 to December 2021). We analyzed mortality, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) length of stay, admission to ICU and postoperative complications for complex procedures using descriptive statistics and regression models. Results: 7309 procedures were analyzed, showing a caseload reduction in March and October 2020, but no statistical evidence for fewer overall procedures overall. Population characteristics differed with lower Body Mass Indices in 2020 and 2021, more patients smoking and with diabetes treated in 2020. There was no increased mortality, ICU length of stay and in 1,144 complex procedures assessed low overall morbidity at 90 days postoperative. Conclusion: Delivering surgical care while treating patients for COVID-19 in the same hospital was safe. Healthcare officials should consider continuing surgical care during future health crises as consequences of limiting surgical treatment for gastrointestinal disorders may be fatal for patients.

Patient clusters and cost trajectories in the Swiss Atrial Fibrillation cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Evidence on long-term costs of atrial fibrillation (AF) and associated factors is scarce. As part of the Swiss-AF prospective cohort study, we aimed to characterise AF costs and their development over time, and to assess specific patient clusters and their cost trajectories. METHODS: Swiss-AF enrolled 2415 patients with variable duration of AF between 2014 and 2017. Patient clusters were identified using hierarchical cluster analysis of baseline characteristics. Ongoing yearly follow-ups include health insurance clinical and claims data. An algorithm was developed to adjudicate costs to AF and related complications. RESULTS: A subpopulation of 1024 Swiss-AF patients with available claims data was followed up for a median (IQR) of 3.24 (1.09) years. Average yearly AF-adjudicated costs amounted to SFr5679 (€5163), remaining stable across the observation period. AF-adjudicated costs consisted mainly of inpatient and outpatient AF treatment costs (SFr4078; €3707), followed by costs of bleeding (SFr696; €633) and heart failure (SFr494; €449). Hierarchical analysis identified three patient clusters: cardiovascular (CV; N=253 with claims), isolated-symptomatic (IS; N=586) and severely morbid without cardiovascular disease (SM; N=185). The CV cluster and SM cluster depicted similarly high costs across all cost outcomes; IS patients accrued the lowest costs. CONCLUSION: Our results highlight three well-defined patient clusters with specific costs that could be used for stratification in both clinical and economic studies. Patient characteristics associated with adjudicated costs as well as cost trajectories may enable an early understanding of the magnitude of upcoming AF-related healthcare costs.

A discrete choice experiment on price and flavour effects on the appeal of nicotine products: a pilot study among young adults in Switzerland.

AIMS: To explore the effects of prices and flavour availability on the appeal of different tobacco and nicotine products, including conventional cigarettes, Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS) and Heated Tobacco Systems (HTS) among an adult population in Switzerland. METHODS: We performed a Discrete Choice Experiment among a group of Swiss aged ≥18 years via the online recruiting platform Prolific in a convenience sample. Our sample included both non-smokers and smokers. We used a within-subject, alternative-specific block design in a series of choice sets including different smoking products. We fixed the attributes of nicotine content (high or medium) and harmfulness (in years of life lost) for each product. Attributes of interest included price (ranging from CHF 5 to 25 in increments of 5) and flavour (fruity/menthol vs none/tobacco flavour). We performed a conditional logistic regression on the attributes' influence on the appeal of cigarettes, ENDS and HTS. RESULTS: A total of 108 out of 153 participants (n = 25 smokers and n = 83 non-smokers, completion rate = 71%) successfully completed our pilot survey experiment. We found that, in general, increasing the price of combustible cigarettes, ENDS and HTS by one standard deviation (around CHF 7) reduced their appeal by approximately 66% (relative risk [RR]: 0.34; 95% CI: 0.28-0.42). Unflavoured alternative nicotine products were found to be less appealing than flavoured products, especially for non-smokers, with a 86% decrease in appeal (RR: 0.14; 95% CI: 0.13-0.16). For non-smokers, an increase in price by one standard deviation was associated with a decrease in the appeal of any product by approximately 19% (RR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.72-0.92). For smokers, the effect sizes were smaller, but overall, the appeal of all products decreased with increasing prices and reduced flavours. CONCLUSIONS: Our Discrete Choice Experiment suggests that, for the Swiss context, limiting the availability of flavours for alternative smoking products has the potential to reduce their appeal to non-smokers by 86% and that a small but significant increase in prices to CHF 15 for cigarettes, ENDS and HTS could lead to a major (around 66%) decrease in their appeal.

Comparison of Uptake and Prices of Biosimilars in the US, Germany, and Switzerland.

Importance: Biologics account for a substantial proportion of health care expenditures. Their costs have been projected to reach US $452 billion in global spending by 2022. Given recent expiration of patent protection of biologics, a shift toward greater follow-on competition among biosimilars would be expected that would allow greater uptake and lower drug costs. Objective: To assess uptake and prices of biosimilars in the US compared with 2 European countries (Germany and Switzerland) with national mechanisms for drug price negotiation. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, biologics and biosimilars that were approved in the US, Germany, and Switzerland until August 2020 were identified. Prices and sales data were extracted from public and commercial databases for the years 2011 to 2020. Data were analyzed from August 1, 2021, to February 28, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Descriptive statistics were used to show temporal trends in the uptake of biosimilars and relative prices compared with those of reference products (ie, biologic agents) for each country. Descriptive analysis was also performed to compare the uptake of biosimilars between the 3 countries limited to biologics that have biosimilars on the market in all countries. To test if biosimilar awareness in each country increased over the last decade, a linear least squares regression was applied. Results: The study cohort included 15 biosimilars and 6 biologics for the US, 52 biosimilars and 15 biologics for Germany, and 28 biosimilars and 13 biologics for Switzerland. Uptake of biosimilars increased over time in all countries. On average, the biosimilar market share at launch was highest in Germany; however, it increased at the fastest rate in the US. Monthly treatment costs of biosimilars in the US were a median of 1.94 (IQR, 1.78-2.44) and 2.74 (IQR, 1.91-3.46) higher than corresponding costs in Germany and Switzerland, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest that more biosimilars have been marketed in Germany and Switzerland than in the US. Policies that counter anticompetitive practices in the US could allow biosimilars to enter the market sooner and could also lower health care costs with improved access. Awareness of biosimilars should be promoted to increase uptake of biosimilars globally.

LiverScreen project: study protocol for screening for liver fibrosis in the general population in European countries.

BACKGROUND: The development of liver cirrhosis is usually an asymptomatic process until late stages when complications occur. The potential reversibility of the disease is dependent on early diagnosis of liver fibrosis and timely targeted treatment. Recently, the use of non-invasive tools has been suggested for screening of liver fibrosis, especially in subjects with risk factors for chronic liver disease. Nevertheless, large population-based studies with cost-effectiveness analyses are still lacking to support the widespread use of such tools. The aim of this study is to investigate whether non-invasive liver stiffness measurement in the general population is useful to identify subjects with asymptomatic, advanced chronic liver disease. METHODS: This study aims to include 30,000 subjects from eight European countries. Subjects from the general population aged ≥ 40 years without known liver disease will be invited to participate in the study either through phone calls/letters or through their primary care center. In the first study visit, subjects will undergo bloodwork as well as hepatic fat quantification and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography. If LSM is ≥ 8 kPa and/or if ALT levels are ≥1.5 x upper limit of normal, subjects will be referred to hospital for further evaluation and consideration of liver biopsy. The primary outcome is the percentage of subjects with LSM ≥ 8kPa. In addition, a health economic evaluation will be performed to assess the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of such an intervention. The project is funded by the European Commission H2020 program. DISCUSSION: This study comes at an especially important time, as the burden of chronic liver diseases is expected to increase in the coming years. There is consequently an urgent need to change our current approach, from diagnosing the disease late when the impact of interventions may be limited to diagnosing the disease earlier, when the patient is asymptomatic and free of complications, and the disease potentially reversible. Ultimately, the LiverScreen study will serve as a basis from which diagnostic pathways can be developed and adapted to the specific socio-economic and healthcare conditions in each country. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered on Clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT03789825 ).

Surgeons' risk perception in ASD surgery: The value of objective risk assessment on decision making and patient counselling.

BACKGROUND: Surgeons often rely on their intuition, experience and published data for surgical decision making and informed consent. Literature provides average values that do not allow for individualized assessments. Accurate validated machine learning (ML) risk calculators for adult spinal deformity (ASD) patients, based on 10 year multicentric prospective data, are currently available. The objective of this study is to assess surgeon ASD risk perception and compare it to validated risk calculator estimates. METHODS: Nine ASD complete (demographics, HRQL, radiology, surgical plan) preoperative cases were distributed online to 100 surgeons from 22 countries. Surgeons were asked to determine the risk of major complications and reoperations at 72 h, 90 d and 2 years postop, using a 0-100% risk scale. The same preoperative parameters circulated to surgeons were used to obtain ML risk calculator estimates. Concordance between surgeons' responses was analyzed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) (poor < 0.5/excellent > 0.85). Distance between surgeons' and risk calculator predictions was assessed using the mean index of agreement (MIA) (poor < 0.5/excellent > 0.85). RESULTS: Thirty-nine surgeons (74.4% with > 10 years' experience), from 12 countries answered the survey. Surgeons' risk perception concordance was very low and heterogeneous. ICC ranged from 0.104 (reintervention risk at 72 h) to 0.316 (reintervention risk at 2 years). Distance between calculator and surgeon prediction was very large. MIA ranged from 0.122 to 0.416. Surgeons tended to overestimate the risk of major complications and reintervention in the first 72 h and underestimated the same risks at 2 years postop. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that expert surgeon ASD risk perception is heterogeneous and highly discordant. Available validated ML ASD risk calculators can enable surgeons to provide more accurate and objective prognosis to adjust patient expectations, in real time, at the point of care.

Population screening for liver fibrosis: Toward early diagnosis and intervention for chronic liver diseases.

Cirrhosis, highly prevalent worldwide, develops after years of hepatic inflammation triggering progressive fibrosis. Currently, the main etiologies of cirrhosis are non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-related liver disease, although chronic hepatitis B and C infections are still major etiological factors in some areas of the world. Recent studies have shown that liver fibrosis can be assessed with relatively high accuracy noninvasively by serological tests, transient elastography, and radiological methods. These modalities may be utilized for screening for liver fibrosis in at-risk populations. Thus far, a limited number of population-based studies using noninvasive tests in different areas of the world indicate that a significant percentage of subjects without known liver disease (around 5% in general populations and a higher rate -18% to 27%-in populations with risk factors for liver disease) have significant undetected liver fibrosis or established cirrhosis. Larger international studies are required to show the harms and benefits before concluding that screening for liver fibrosis should be applied to populations at risk for chronic liver diseases. Screening for liver fibrosis has the potential for changing the current approach from diagnosing chronic liver diseases late when patients have already developed complications of cirrhosis to diagnosing liver fibrosis in asymptomatic subjects providing the opportunity of preventing disease progression.

Association between antibiotic resistance in intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired infections and excess resource utilization: Evidence from Spain, Italy, and Portugal.

BACKGROUND: Intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria have been associated with substantial health and economic costs. Moreover, southern Europe has historically reported high levels of antimicrobial resistance. OBJECTIVES: We estimated the attributable economic burden of ICU-acquired infections due to resistant bacteria based upon hospital excess length of stay (LOS) in a selected sample of southern European countries. METHODS: We studied a cohort of adult patients admitted to the ICU who developed an ICU-acquired infection related to an invasive procedure in a sample of Spanish, Italian, and Portuguese hospitals between 2008 and 2016, using data from The European Surveillance System (TESSy) released by the European Centers for Disease Control (ECDC). We analyzed the association between infections with selected antibiotic-resistant bacteria of public health importance and excess LOS using regression, matching, and time-to-event methods. We controlled for several confounding factors as well as time-dependent biases. We also computed the associated economic burden of excess resource utilization for each selected country. RESULTS: In total, 13,441 patients with at least 1 ICU-acquired infection were included in the analysis: 4,106 patients (30.5%) were infected with antimicrobial-resistant bacteria, whereas 9,335 patients (69.5%) were infected with susceptible bacteria. The unadjusted association between resistance status and excess LOS was 7 days (95% CI, 6.13-7.87; P < .001). Fully adjusted models yielded significantly lower estimates: 2.76 days (95% CI, 1.98-3.54; P < .001) in the regression model, 2.60 days (95% CI, 1.66-3.55; P < .001) in the genetic matching model, and a hazard ratio of 1.15 (95% CI, 1.11-1.19; P < .001) in the adjusted Cox regression model. These estimates, alongside the prevalence of resistance, translated into direct hospitalization attributable costs per ICU-acquired infection of 5,224€ (95% CI, 3,691-6,757) for Spain, 4,461€ (95% CI, 1,948-6,974) for Portugal, and 4,320€ (95% CI, 1,662-6,977) for Italy. CONCLUSIONS: ICU-acquired infections associated with antibiotic-resistant bacteria are substantially associated with a 15% increase in excess LOS and resource utilization in 3 southern European countries. However, failure to appropriately control for significant confounders inflates estimates by ∼2.5-fold.

Surgical procedures in inpatient versus outpatient settings and its potential impact on follow-up costs.

OBJECTIVE: We examined real-world effects of cantonal legislations to direct surgery patients from the inpatient to the outpatient setting in Switzerland. METHODS: Analyses were based on claims data of the Helsana Group, a leading Swiss health insurance. The study population consisted of 13'145 (in 2014), 12'455 (in 2016), and 12'875 (in 2018) insured persons aged >18 years who had haemorrhoidectomy, inguinal hernia repair, varicose vein surgery, knee arthroscopy/meniscectomy or surgery of the cervix/uterus. We assessed the proportion of inpatient procedures, index costs, length of hospital stays, outpatient costs and hospitalizations during follow-up, stratified by procedure, in-/outpatient setting, and the presence (enacted/effective in 2018) of a cantonal legislation. We used difference-in-differences methods to study the impact of cantonal legislations. RESULTS: Overall, the proportion of procedures performed in the inpatient setting decreased between 2014 and 2018 (p < 0.001). The decrease between 2016 and 2018 was significantly steeper in cantons with a legislation (p < 0.001; effect size: 0.57; 95% CI: 0.51, 0.64), leading to steeper decreases in healthcare costs of index procedures in cantons with a legislation, with no impact on length of hospital stays. The legislation also had no impact on outpatient costs or hospitalizations during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The cantonal legislations achieved the intended effects of inpatient surgery substitution by outpatient surgery, with no evidence suggesting negative effects on costs or hospitalizations during follow-up.

Cost-Sharing Increase, Medication Adherence, and Hospitalizations in Schizophrenia Patients: A Natural Experiment.

Increases in medication cost-sharing rates remain a controversial system-wide cost-containment measure for chronic mental health patients. The objective was to investigate the effects of cost-sharing increases on adherence to prescribed antipsychotic medication and psychiatric hospitalizations among patients with schizophrenia. In July 2012, a Spanish National Law raised the cost-sharing rate from 0 to 10% for pensioner outpatient medication while cost-sharing remained at 0% for other socioeconomic groups. To estimate the effects of the reform, we analyzed the prevalent adult schizophrenic population of Valencia, Spain, followed up 1 year before and after the Law took effect. We used a quasi-experimental design with a patient fixed-effects difference-in-differences regression to evaluate the reform effects on antipsychotic medication adherence, prescription, and hospitalization rates. A total of 5,672 included patients were exposed to the reform, whereas 5,545 were not. There were no differences in adherence, prescription, or hospitalization rates between exposed and nonexposed patients prior to its implementation. The odds ratio of exposed patients remaining adherent to issued prescriptions after the reform took effect were 0.70 99% confidence interval (CI 0.66-0.75), in relation to the nonexposed group. Additionally, the reform was associated with a reduction in exposure to antipsychotic medication (odds ratio (OR) 0.85, 99%CI 0.83-0.88) and an increase in hospitalization risk (OR 1.13, 99% CI 1.05-1.23) during the first year after implementation. Policies raising the cost-sharing rate of medication for patients with schizophrenia are simultaneously associated with unintended effects. We report decreases in antipsychotic exposure and increases in hospitalization rates that lasted for 1 year after follow-up.

Impact of multi-drug resistant bacteria on economic and clinical outcomes of healthcare-associated infections in adults: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Infections with multidrug resistant (MDR) bacteria in hospital settings have substantial implications in terms of clinical and economic outcomes. However, due to clinical and methodological heterogeneity, estimates about the attributable economic and clinical effects of healthcare-associated infections (HAI) due to MDR microorganisms (MDR HAI) remain unclear. The objective was to review and synthesize the evidence on the impact of MDR HAI in adults on hospital costs, length of stay, and mortality at discharge. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Literature searches were conducted in PubMed/MEDLINE, and Google Scholar databases to select studies that evaluated the impact of MDR HAI on economic and clinical outcomes. Eligible studies were conducted in adults, in order to ensure homogeneity of populations, used propensity score matched cohorts or included explicit confounding control, and had confirmed antibiotic susceptibility testing. Risk of bias was evaluated, and effects were measured with ratios of means (ROM) for cost and length of stay, and risk ratios (RR) for mortality. A systematic search was performed on 14th March 2019, re-run on the 10th of June 2019 and extended the 3rd of September 2019. Small effect sizes were assessed by examination of funnel plots. Sixteen articles (6,122 patients with MDR HAI and 8,326 patients with non-MDR HAI) were included in the systematic review of which 12 articles assessed cost, 19 articles length of stay, and 14 mortality. Compared to susceptible infections, MDR HAI were associated with increased cost (ROM 1.33, 95%CI [1.15; 1.54]), prolonged length of stay (ROM 1.27, 95%CI [1.18; 1.37]), and excess in-hospital mortality (RR 1.61, 95%CI [1.36; 1.90]) in the random effects models. Risk of publication bias was only found to be significant for mortality, and overall study quality good. CONCLUSIONS: MDR HAI appears to be strongly associated with increases in direct cost, prolonged length of stay and increased mortality. However, further comprehensive studies in this setting are warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO (CRD42019126288).

Utilization of Predictive Modeling to Determine Episode of Care Costs and to Accurately Identify Catastrophic Cost Nonwarranty Outlier Patients in Adult Spinal Deformity Surgery: A Step Toward Bundled Payments and Risk Sharing.

STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective review of prospectively-collected, multicenter adult spinal deformity (ASD) database. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the rate of patients who accrue catastrophic cost (CC) with ASD surgery utilizing direct, actual costs, and determine the feasibility of predicting these outliers. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Cost outliers or surgeries resulting in CC are a major concern for ASD surgery as some question the sustainability of these surgical treatments. METHODS: Generalized linear regression models were used to explain the determinants of direct costs. Regression tree and random forest models were used to predict which patients would have CC (>$100,000). RESULTS: A total of 210 ASD patients were included (mean age of 59.3 years, 83% women). The mean index episode of care direct cost was $70,766 (SD = $24,422). By 90 days and 2 years following surgery, mean direct costs increased to $74,073 and $77,765, respectively. Within 90 days of the index surgery, 11 (5.2%) patients underwent 13 revisions procedures, and by 2 years, 26 (12.4%) patients had undergone 36 revision procedures. The CC threshold at the index surgery and 90-day and 2-year follow-up time points was exceeded by 11.9%, 14.8%, and 19.1% of patients, respectively. Top predictors of cost included number of levels fused, surgeon, surgical approach, interbody fusion (IBF), and length of hospital stay (LOS). At 90 days and 2 years, a total of 80.6% and 64.0% of variance in direct cost, respectively, was explained in the generalized linear regression models. Predictors of CC were number of fused levels, surgical approach, surgeon, IBF, and LOS. CONCLUSION: The present study demonstrates that direct cost in ASD surgery can be accurately predicted. Collectively, these findings may not only prove useful for bundled care initiatives, but also may provide insight into means to reduce and better predict cost of ASD surgery outside of bundled payment plans. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 3.

Transient elastography for screening of liver fibrosis: Cost-effectiveness analysis from six prospective cohorts in Europe and Asia.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-related liver disease pose an important challenge to current clinical healthcare pathways because of the large number of at-risk patients. Therefore, we aimed to explore the cost-effectiveness of transient elastography (TE) as a screening method to detect liver fibrosis in a primary care pathway. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using real-life individual patient data from 6 independent prospective cohorts (5 from Europe and 1 from Asia). A diagnostic algorithm with conditional inference trees was developed to explore the relationships between liver stiffness, socio-demographics, comorbidities, and hepatic fibrosis, the latter assessed by fibrosis scores (FIB-4, NFS) and liver biopsies in a subset of 352 patients. We compared the incremental cost-effectiveness of a screening strategy against standard of care alongside the numbers needed to screen to diagnose a patient with fibrosis stage ≥F2. RESULTS: The data set encompassed 6,295 participants (mean age 55 ±â€¯12 years, BMI 27 ±â€¯5 kg/m2, liver stiffness 5.6 ±â€¯5.0 kPa). A 9.1 kPa TE cut-off provided the best accuracy for the diagnosis of significant fibrosis (≥F2) in general population settings, whereas a threshold of 9.5 kPa was optimal for populations at-risk of alcohol-related liver disease. TE with the proposed cut-offs outperformed fibrosis scores in terms of accuracy. Screening with TE was cost-effective with mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranging from 2,570 €/QALY (95% CI 2,456-2,683) for a population at-risk of alcohol-related liver disease (age ≥45 years) to 6,217 €/QALY (95% CI 5,832-6,601) in the general population. Overall, there was a 12% chance of TE screening being cost saving across countries and populations. CONCLUSIONS: Screening for liver fibrosis with TE in primary care is a cost-effective intervention for European and Asian populations and may even be cost saving. LAY SUMMARY: The lack of optimized public health screening strategies for the detection of liver fibrosis in adults without known liver disease presents a major healthcare challenge. Analyses from 6 independent international cohorts, with transient elastography measurements, show that a community-based risk-stratification strategy for alcohol-related and non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases is cost-effective and potentially cost saving for our healthcare systems, as it leads to earlier identification of patients.

Development of predictive models for all individual questions of SRS-22R after adult spinal deformity surgery: a step toward individualized medicine.

PURPOSE: Health-related quality of life (HRQL) instruments are essential in value-driven health care, but patients often have more specific, personal priorities when seeking surgical care. The Scoliosis Research Society-22R (SRS-22R), an HRQL instrument for spinal deformity, provides summary scores spanning several health domains, but these may be difficult for patients to utilize in planning their specific care goals. Our objective was to create preoperative predictive models for responses to individual SRS-22R questions at 1 and 2 years after adult spinal deformity (ASD) surgery to facilitate precision surgical care. METHODS: Two prospective observational cohorts were queried for ASD patients with SRS-22R data at baseline and 1 and 2 years after surgery. In total, 150 covariates were used in training machine learning models, including demographics, surgical data and perioperative complications. Validation was accomplished via an 80%/20% data split for training and testing, respectively. Goodness of fit was measured using area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves. RESULTS: In total, 561 patients met inclusion criteria. The AUROC ranged from 56.5 to 86.9%, reflecting successful fits for most questions. SRS-22R questions regarding pain, disability and social and labor function were the most accurately predicted. Models were less sensitive to questions regarding general satisfaction, depression/anxiety and appearance. CONCLUSIONS: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to explicitly model the prediction of individual answers to the SRS-22R questionnaire at 1 and 2 years after deformity surgery. The ability to predict individual question responses may prove useful in preoperative counseling in the age of individualized medicine. These slides can be retrieved under Electronic Supplementary Material.