Extended-age Out-of-sample Validation of Risk Stratification Index 3.0 Models Using Commercial All-payer Claims.

BACKGROUND: The authors previously reported a broad suite of individualized Risk Stratification Index 3.0 (Health Data Analytics Institute, Inc., USA) models for various meaningful outcomes in patients admitted to a hospital for medical or surgical reasons. The models used International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, trajectories and were restricted to information available at hospital admission, including coding history in the previous year. The models were developed and validated in Medicare patients, mostly age 65 yr or older. The authors sought to determine how well their models predict utilization outcomes and adverse events in younger and healthier populations. METHODS: The authors' analysis was based on All Payer Claims for surgical and medical hospital admissions from Utah and Oregon. Endpoints included unplanned hospital admissions, in-hospital mortality, acute kidney injury, sepsis, pneumonia, respiratory failure, and a composite of major cardiac complications. They prospectively applied previously developed Risk Stratification Index 3.0 models to the younger and healthier 2017 Utah and Oregon state populations and compared the results to their previous out-of-sample Medicare validation analysis. RESULTS: In the Utah dataset, there were 55,109 All Payer Claims admissions across 40,710 patients. In the Oregon dataset, there were 21,213 admissions from 16,951 patients. Model performance on the two state datasets was similar or better than in Medicare patients, with an average area under the curve of 0.83 (0.71 to 0.91). Model calibration was reasonable with an R2 of 0.93 (0.84 to 0.97) for Utah and 0.85 (0.71 to 0.91) for Oregon. The mean sensitivity for the highest 5% risk population was 28% (17 to 44) for Utah and 37% (20 to 56) for Oregon. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive analytical modeling based on administrative claims history provides individualized risk profiles at hospital admission that may help guide patient management. Similar predictive performance in Medicare and in younger and healthier populations indicates that Risk Stratification Index 3.0 models are valid across a broad range of adult hospital admissions.

Risk Stratification Index 3.0, a Broad Set of Models for Predicting Adverse Events during and after Hospital Admission.

BACKGROUND: Risk stratification helps guide appropriate clinical care. Our goal was to develop and validate a broad suite of predictive tools based on International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, diagnostic and procedural codes for predicting adverse events and care utilization outcomes for hospitalized patients. METHODS: Endpoints included unplanned hospital admissions, discharge status, excess length of stay, in-hospital and 90-day mortality, acute kidney injury, sepsis, pneumonia, respiratory failure, and a composite of major cardiac complications. Patient demographic and coding history in the year before admission provided features used to predict utilization and adverse events through 90 days after admission. Models were trained and refined on 2017 to 2018 Medicare admissions data using an 80 to 20 learn to test split sample. Models were then prospectively tested on 2019 out-of-sample Medicare admissions. Predictions based on logistic regression were compared with those from five commonly used machine learning methods using a limited dataset. RESULTS: The 2017 to 2018 development set included 9,085,968 patients who had 18,899,224 inpatient admissions, and there were 5,336,265 patients who had 9,205,835 inpatient admissions in the 2019 validation dataset. Model performance on the validation set had an average area under the curve of 0.76 (range, 0.70 to 0.82). Model calibration was strong with an average R 2 for the 99% of patients at lowest risk of 1.00. Excess length of stay had a root-mean-square error of 0.19 and R 2 of 0.99. The mean sensitivity for the highest 5% risk population was 19.2% (range, 11.6 to 30.1); for positive predictive value, it was 37.2% (14.6 to 87.7); and for lift (enrichment ratio), it was 3.8 (2.3 to 6.1). Predictive accuracies from regression and machine learning techniques were generally similar. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive analytical modeling based on administrative claims history can provide individualized risk profiles at hospital admission that may help guide patient management. Similar results from six different modeling approaches suggest that we have identified both the value and ceiling for predictive information derived from medical claims history.

Racial/ethnic differences in receipt of surgery among children in the United States.

BACKGROUND: It is unknown whether racial/ethnic disparities exist in surgical utilization for children. The aim, therefore, was to evaluate the odds of surgery among children in the US by race/ethnicity to test the hypothesis that minority children have less surgery. METHODS: Cross-sectional data were analyzed on children 0-18 years old from the 1999 to 2018 National Health Interview Survey, a large, nationally representative survey. The primary outcome was odds of surgery in the prior 12 months for non Latino African-American, Asian, and Latino children, compared with non Latino White children, after adjustment for relevant covariates. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Pediatric Dataset was used to analyze the odds of emergent/urgent surgery by race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Data for 219,098 children were analyzed, of whom 10,644 (4.9%) received surgery. After adjustment for relevant covariates, African-American (AOR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.50-0.59), Asian (AOR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.33-0.46), and Latino (AOR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.57-0.67) children had lower odds of surgery than White children. Latino children were more likely to require emergent or urgent surgery (AOR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.68-1.74). CONCLUSIONS: Latino, African-American, and Asian children have significantly lower adjusted odds of having surgery than White children in America, and Latino children were more likely to have emergent or urgent surgery. These racial/ethnic differences in surgery may reflect disparities in healthcare access which should be addressed through further research, ongoing monitoring, targeted interventions, and quality-improvement efforts. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II. TYPE OF STUDY: Prognosis study.

Covid-19 and excess mortality in medicare beneficiaries.

We estimated excess mortality in Medicare recipients in the United States with probable and confirmed Covid-19 infections in the general community and amongst residents of long-term care (LTC) facilities. We considered 28,389,098 Medicare and dual-eligible recipients from one year before February 29, 2020 through September 30, 2020, with mortality followed through November 30th, 2020. Probable and confirmed Covid-19 diagnoses, presumably mostly symptomatic, were determined from ICD-10 codes. We developed a Risk Stratification Index (RSI) mortality model which was applied prospectively to establish baseline mortality risk. Excess deaths attributable to Covid-19 were estimated by comparing actual-to-expected deaths based on historical (2017-2019) comparisons and in closely matched concurrent (2020) cohorts with and without Covid-19. Overall, 677,100 (2.4%) beneficiaries had confirmed Covid-19 and 2,917,604 (10.3%) had probable Covid-19. A total of 472,329 confirmed cases were community living and 204,771 were in LTC. Mortality following a probable or confirmed diagnosis in the community increased from an expected incidence of about 4.0% to actual incidence of 7.5%. In long-term care facilities, the corresponding increase was from 20.3% to 24.6%. The absolute increase was therefore similar at 3-4% in the community and in LTC residents. The percentage increase was far greater in the community (89.5%) than among patients in chronic care facilities (21.1%) who had higher baseline risk of mortality. The LTC population without probable or confirmed Covid-19 diagnoses experienced 38,932 excess deaths (34.8%) compared to historical estimates. Limitations in access to Covid-19 testing and disease under-reporting in LTC patients probably were important factors, although social isolation and disruption in usual care presumably also contributed. Remarkably, there were 31,360 (5.4%) fewer deaths than expected in community dwellers without probable or confirmed Covid-19 diagnoses. Disruptions to the healthcare system and avoided medical care were thus apparently offset by other factors, representing overall benefit. The Covid-19 pandemic had marked effects on mortality, but the effects were highly context-dependent.

Failure to detect ward hypoxaemia and hypotension: contributions of insufficient assessment frequency and patient arousal during nursing assessments.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative hypotension and hypoxaemia are common and often unrecognised. With intermittent nursing vital signs, hypotensive or hypoxaemic episodes might be missed because they occur between scheduled measurements, or because the process of taking vital signs arouses patients and temporarily improves arterial blood pressure and ventilation. We therefore estimated the fraction of desaturation and hypotension episodes that did not overlap nursing assessments and would therefore usually be missed. We also evaluated the effect of taking vital signs on blood pressure and oxygen saturation. METHODS: We estimated the fraction of desaturated episodes (arterial oxygen saturation <90% for at least 90% of the time within 30 continuous minutes) and hypotensive episodes (MAP <70 mm Hg for 15 continuous minutes) that did not overlap nursing assessments in patients recovering from noncardiac surgery. We also evaluated changes over time before and after nursing visits. RESULTS: Among 782 patients, we identified 878 hypotensive episodes and 2893 desaturation episodes, of which 79% of the hypotensive episodes and 82% of the desaturation episodes did not occur within 10 min of a nursing assessment and would therefore usually be missed. Mean BP and oxygen saturation did not improve by clinically meaningful amounts during nursing vital sign assessments. CONCLUSIONS: Hypotensive and desaturation episodes are mostly missed because vital sign assessments on surgical wards are sparse, rather than being falsely negative because the assessment process itself increases blood pressure and oxygen saturation. Continuous vital sign monitoring will detect more disturbances, potentially giving clinicians time to intervene before critical events occur.

International Policy Frameworks for Consent in Minimal-risk Pragmatic Trials.

There is intense debate around the use of altered and waived consent for pragmatic trials. Those in favor argue that traditional consent compromises the internal and external validity of these trials. Those against, warn that the resultant loss of autonomy compromises respect for persons and could undermine trust in the research enterprise.This article examines whether international ethical guidelines and the policy frameworks in three countries-the United States, England, and Australia-permit altered and waived consent for minimal-risk pragmatic trials conducted outside the emergency setting. Provisions for both are clearly articulated in U.S. regulations, but many countries do not have equivalent frameworks. Investigators should not assume that all consent models permitted in the United States are legal in their jurisdictions, even if they are deemed ethically defensible.The authors summarize ethical and regulatory considerations and present a framework for investigators contemplating trials with altered or waived consent.

A Monte Carlo simulation estimating US hospital cost reductions associated with hypotension control in septic ICU patients.

OBJECTIVE: This economic analysis extends upon a recent epidemiological study to estimate the association between hypotension control and hospital costs for septic patients in US intensive care units (ICUs). METHODS: A Monte Carlo simulation decision analytic model was developed that accounted for the probability of complications-acute kidney injury and mortality-in septic ICU patients and the cost of each health outcome from the hospital perspective. Probabilities of complications were calculated based on observational data from 110 US hospitals for septic ICU patients (n = 8,782) with various levels of hypotension exposure as measured by mean arterial pressure (MAP, units: mmHg). Costs for acute kidney injury (AKI) and mortality were derived from published literature. Each simulation calculated mean hospital cost reduction and 95% confidence intervals based on 10,000 trials. RESULTS: In the base-case analysis hospital costs for a hypothetical "control" cohort (MAP of 65 mmHg) were $699 less per hospitalization (95% CI: $342-$1,116) relative to a "case" cohort (MAP of 60 mmHg). In the most extreme case considered (45 mmHg vs 65 mmHg), the associated cost reduction was $4,450 (95% CI: $2,020-$7,581). More than 99% of the simulated trials resulted in cost reductions. A conservative institution-level analysis for a hypothetical hospital (which assumes no benefit for increasing MAP above 65 mmHg) estimated a cost decline of $417 for a 5 mmHg increase in MAP per ICU septic patient. These results are applicable to the US only. CONCLUSIONS: Hypotension control (via MAP increases) for patients with sepsis in the ICU is associated with lower hospitalization cost.

Anticipated Rates and Costs of Guideline-Concordant Preoperative Stress Testing.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines recommend that patients have preoperative assessment of cardiac risk and functional status, and that patients at "elevated" cardiac risk with poor or unknown functional status be referred for preoperative stress testing. Little is known about current rates of testing or resultant medical costs. We set out to estimate the expected rates of preoperative stress testing and resultant costs if physicians in the United States were to follow current guidelines and to investigate differences that would arise from 2 risk prediction methods included in current guidelines. METHODS: We applied 2 risk prediction tools (Revised Cardiac Risk Index and Myocardial Infarction or Cardiac Arrest) included in current American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines to a multicenter prospective registry of patients undergoing surgery in the United States in 2009. We then calculated expected rates of preoperative cardiac stress testing if physicians were to follow American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines, expected nationwide direct medical expenditures that would result (in 2017 US dollars), and agreement beyond chance between the 2 risk prediction tools. RESULTS: Current guidelines recommend considerable spending on preoperative stress testing. Guideline-recommended spending would differ substantially depending on the risk prediction tool used and the reliability of the functional status assessment. Rates of testing and resultant spending are likely much greater among patients at "elevated" risk, compared with patients at "low" risk. Two guideline-recommended risk assessment tools, Revised Cardiac Risk Index and Myocardial Infarction or Cardiac Arrest, have poor agreement beyond chance across the currently recommended risk threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative stress testing is likely a considerable source of medical spending, despite unproven benefit. Which perioperative risk assessment tool clinicians should use, what risk thresholds are appropriate for patient selection, and the reliability of the functional status assessment all warrant further attention.

Troponin T monitoring to detect myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery: a cost-consequence analysis.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery (MINS) is a mostly asymptomatic condition that is strongly associated with 30-day mortality; however, it remains mostly undetected without systematic troponin T monitoring. We evaluated the cost and consequences of postoperative troponin T monitoring to detect MINS. METHODS: We conducted a model-based cost-consequence analysis to compare the impact of routine troponin T monitoring versus standard care (troponin T measurement triggered by ischemic symptoms) on the incidence of MINS detection. Model inputs were based on Canadian patients enrolled in the Vascular Events in Noncardiac Surgery Patients Cohort Evaluation (VISION) study, which enrolled patients aged 45 years or older undergoing inpatient noncardiac surgery. We conducted probability analyses with 10 000 iterations and extensive sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: The data were based on 6021 patients (48% men, mean age 65 [standard deviation 12] yr). The 30-day mortality rate for MINS was 9.6%. We determined the incremental cost to avoid missing a MINS event as $1632 (2015 Canadian dollars). The cost-effectiveness of troponin monitoring was higher in patient subgroups at higher risk for MINS, e.g., those aged 65 years or more, or with a history of atherosclerosis or diabetes ($1309). CONCLUSION: The costs associated with a troponin T monitoring program to detect MINS were moderate. Based on the estimated incremental cost per health gain, implementation of postoperative troponin T monitoring seems appealing, particularly in patients at high risk for MINS.

CONTEXTE: Les lésions myocardiques après chirurgie non cardiaque (CNC) sont majoritairement asymptomatiques et fortement associées au risque de mortalité dans les 30 jours; toutefois, dans la plupart des cas, elles ne sont pas détectées en l'absence d'une surveillance systématique de la troponine T. Nous avons évalué les coûts et les conséquences d'une telle surveillance pour détecter les lésions myocardiques après CNC. MÉTHODES: Nous avons mené une analyse coût-conséquence modélisée pour comparer la surveillance systématique de la troponine T aux soins habituels seuls (mesure de la troponine T seulement s'il y a présence de symptômes d'ischémie) sur la fréquence de détection de lésions myocardiques après CNC. Les données ayant servi à l'analyse provenaient des patients canadiens ayant participé à l'étude de cohorte VISION, qui visait à évaluer les complications vasculaires chez les patients de 45 ans et plus ayant subi une CNC. Nous avons mené des analyses de probabilité avec 10  000 itérations et des analyses de sensibilité approfondies. RÉSULTATS: Les données portaient sur 6021 patients (48 % du sexe masculin; âge moyen de 65 ans [écart-type de 12 ans]). Le taux de mortalité dans les 30 jours associé à une lésion myocardique après CNC était de 9,6 %. Nous avons déterminé que le coût marginal de la détection de la présence d'une lésion par surveillance de la troponine T était de 1632 $ (dollars canadiens en 2015). Le rapport coût-efficacité était plus bas pour les sous-groupes de patients à risque élevé de lésion myocardique après CNC, comme les patients de 65 ans et plus ou ceux ayant des antécédents d'athérosclérose ou de diabète (1309 $), que pour leurs pairs. CONCLUSION: Les coûts associés à un programme de surveillance de la troponine T pour détecter les lésions myocardiques après CNC étaient modérés. Le coût marginal estimé par gain de santé indique que la mise en œuvre de ce type de programme pourrait être une option intéressante, surtout pour les patients à risque élevé de lésion myocardique après CNC.

Safety and Feasibility of a Ketamine Package to Support Emergency and Essential Surgery in Kenya when No Anesthetist is Available: An Analysis of 1216 Consecutive Operative Procedures.

BACKGROUND: Lack of access to emergency and essential surgery is widespread in low- and middle-income countries. Scarce anesthesia services contribute to this unmet need. The aim of this study was to evaluate the safety and feasibility of the Every Second Matters for Emergency and Essential Surgery-Ketamine (ESM-Ketamine) package for emergency and essential procedures when no anesthetist was available. METHODS: From November 2013 to September 2017, the ESM-Ketamine package was used for patients requiring emergency or life-improving surgeries in fifteen selected facilities across Kenya when no anesthetist was available. A mixed-methods approach was used to assess safety and feasibility of the ESM-Ketamine package, including demand, acceptability, and practicality. The primary outcome was ketamine-related adverse events. Key-informant interviews captured perceptions of providers, hospital administrators, and surgeons/proceduralists. RESULTS: Non-anesthetist mid-level providers used ESM-Ketamine for 1216 surgical procedures across the fifteen study facilities. The median ketamine dose was 2.1 mg/kg. Brief (<30 s) oxygen desaturations occurred in 39 patients (3%), and prolonged (>30 s) oxygen desaturations occurred in seven patients (0.6%). There were 157 (13%) reported cases of hallucinations and agitation which were treated with diazepam. All patients recovered uneventfully, and no ketamine-related deaths were reported. Twenty-seven key-informant interviews showed strong support for the program with four main themes: financial considerations, provision of services, staff impact, and scaling considerations. CONCLUSIONS: The ESM-Ketamine package appears safe and feasible and is capable of expanding access to emergency and essential surgeries in rural Kenya when no anesthetist is available.

Validation and Calibration of the Risk Stratification Index.

BACKGROUND: The Risk Stratification Index was developed from 35 million Medicare hospitalizations from 2001 to 2006 but has yet to be externally validated on an independent large national data set, nor has it been calibrated. Finally, the Medicare Analysis and Provider Review file now allows 25 rather than 9 diagnostic codes and 25 rather than 6 procedure codes and includes present-on-admission flags. The authors sought to validate the index on new data, test the impact of present-on-admission codes, test the impact of the expansion to 25 diagnostic and procedure codes, and calibrate the model. METHODS: The authors applied the original index coefficients to 39,753,036 records from the 2007-2012 Medicare Analysis data set and calibrated the model. The authors compared their results with 25 diagnostic and 25 procedure codes, with results after restricting the model to the first 9 diagnostic and 6 procedure codes and to codes present on admission. RESULTS: The original coefficients applied to the 2007-2012 data set yielded C statistics of 0.83 for 1-yr mortality, 0.84 for 30-day mortality, 0.94 for in-hospital mortality, and 0.86 for median length of stay-values nearly identical to those originally reported. Calibration equations performed well against observed outcomes. The 2007-2012 model discriminated similarly when codes were restricted to nine diagnostic and six procedure codes. Present-on-admission models were about 10% less predictive for in-hospital mortality and hospital length of stay but were comparably predictive for 30-day and 1-yr mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Risk stratification performance was largely unchanged by additional diagnostic and procedure codes and only slightly worsened by restricting analysis to codes present on admission. The Risk Stratification Index, after calibration, thus provides excellent discrimination and calibration for important health services outcomes and thus appears to be a good basis for making hospital comparisons.

Canadian Cardiovascular Society Guidelines on Perioperative Cardiac Risk Assessment and Management for Patients Who Undergo Noncardiac Surgery.

The Canadian Cardiovascular Society Guidelines Committee and key Canadian opinion leaders believed there was a need for up to date guidelines that used the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system of evidence assessment for patients who undergo noncardiac surgery. Strong recommendations included: 1) measuring brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) or N-terminal fragment of proBNP (NT-proBNP) before surgery to enhance perioperative cardiac risk estimation in patients who are 65 years of age or older, are 45-64 years of age with significant cardiovascular disease, or have a Revised Cardiac Risk Index score ≥ 1; 2) against performing preoperative resting echocardiography, coronary computed tomography angiography, exercise or cardiopulmonary exercise testing, or pharmacological stress echocardiography or radionuclide imaging to enhance perioperative cardiac risk estimation; 3) against the initiation or continuation of acetylsalicylic acid for the prevention of perioperative cardiac events, except in patients with a recent coronary artery stent or who will undergo carotid endarterectomy; 4) against α2 agonist or ß-blocker initiation within 24 hours before surgery; 5) withholding angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin II receptor blocker starting 24 hours before surgery; 6) facilitating smoking cessation before surgery; 7) measuring daily troponin for 48 to 72 hours after surgery in patients with an elevated NT-proBNP/BNP measurement before surgery or if there is no NT-proBNP/BNP measurement before surgery, in those who have a Revised Cardiac Risk Index score ≥1, age 45-64 years with significant cardiovascular disease, or age 65 years or older; and 8) initiating of long-term acetylsalicylic acid and statin therapy in patients who suffer myocardial injury/infarction after surgery.

Empirical Treatment Effectiveness Models for Binary Outcomes.

Randomized trials provide strong evidence regarding efficacy of interventions but are limited in their capacity to address potential heterogeneity in effectiveness within broad clinical populations. For example, a treatment that on average is superior may be distinctly worse in certain patients. We propose a technique for using large electronic health registries to develop and validate decision models that measure-for distinct combinations of covariate values-the difference in predicted outcomes among 2 alternative treatments. We demonstrate the methodology in a prototype analysis of in-hospital mortality under alternative revascularization treatments. First, we developed prediction models for a binary outcome of interest for each treatment. Decision criteria were then defined based on the treatment-specific model predictions. Patients were then classified as receiving concordant or discordant care (in relation to the model recommendation), and the association between discordance and outcomes was evaluated. We then present alternative decision criteria and validation methodologies, as well as sensitivity analyses that investigate 1) the imbalance between treatments on observed covariates and 2) the aggregate impact of unobserved covariates. Our methodology supplements population-average clinical trial results by modeling heterogeneity in outcomes according to specific covariate values. It thus allows for assessment of current practice, from which cogent hypotheses for improved care can be derived. Newly emerging large population registries will allow for accurate predictions of outcome risk under competing treatments, as complex functions of predictor variables. Whether or not the models might be used to inform decision making depends on the extent to which important predictors are available. Further work is needed to understand the strengths and limitations of this approach, particularly in relation to those based on randomized trials.

An evaluation of a zero-heat-flux cutaneous thermometer in cardiac surgical patients.

BACKGROUND: Although core temperature can be measured invasively, there are currently no widely available, reliable, noninvasive thermometers for its measurement. We thus compared a prototype zero-heat-flux thermometer with simultaneous measurements from a pulmonary artery catheter. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that zero-heat-flux temperatures are sufficiently accurate for routine clinical use. METHODS: Core temperature was measured from the thermistor of a standard pulmonary artery catheter and with a prototype zero-heat-flux deep-tissue thermometer in 105 patients having nonemergent cardiac surgery. Zero-heat-flux probes were positioned on the lateral forehead and lateral neck. Skin surface temperature probes were attached to the forehead just adjacent to the zero-heat-flux probe. Temperatures were recorded at 1-minute intervals, excluding the period of cardiopulmonary bypass, and for the first 4 postoperative hours. Zero-heat-flux and pulmonary artery temperatures were compared with bias analysis; differences exceeding 0.5°C were considered to be potentially clinically important. RESULTS: The mean duration in the operating room was 279 ± 75 minutes, and the mean cross-clamp time was 118 ± 50 minutes. All subjects were monitored for an additional 4 hours in the intensive care unit. The average overall difference between forehead zero-heat-flux and pulmonary artery temperatures (i.e., forehead minus pulmonary artery) was -0.23°C (95% limits of agreement of ±0.82); 78% of the differences were ≤0.5°C. The average intraoperative temperature difference was -0.08°C (95% limits of agreement of ±0.88); 84% of the differences were ≤0.5°C. The average postoperative difference was -0.32°C (95% limits of agreement of ±0.75); 84% of the differences were ≤0.5°C. Bias and precision values for neck site were similar to the forehead values. Uncorrected forehead skin temperature showed an increasing negative bias as core temperature decreased. CONCLUSIONS: Core temperature can be noninvasively measured using the zero-heat-flux method. Bias was small, but precision was slightly worse than our designated 0.5°C limits compared with measurements from a pulmonary artery catheter.

Comparison of three techniques for ultrasound-guided femoral nerve catheter insertion: a randomized, blinded trial.

BACKGROUND: Ultrasound guidance for continuous femoral perineural catheters may be supplemented by electrical stimulation through a needle or through a stimulating catheter. The authors tested the primary hypothesis that ultrasound guidance alone is noninferior on both postoperative pain scores and opioid requirement and superior on at least one of the two. Second, the authors compared all interventions on insertion time and incremental cost. METHODS: Patients having knee arthroplasty with femoral nerve catheters were randomly assigned to catheter insertion guided by: (1) ultrasound alone (n = 147); (2) ultrasound and electrical stimulation through the needle (n = 152); or (3) ultrasound and electrical stimulation through both the needle and catheter (n = 138). Noninferiority between any two interventions was defined for pain as not more than 0.5 points worse on a 0 to 10 verbal response scale and for opioid consumption as not more than 25% greater than the mean. RESULTS: The stimulating needle group was significantly noninferior to the stimulating catheter group (difference [95% CI] in mean verbal response scale pain score [stimulating needle vs. stimulating catheter] of -0.16 [-0.61 to 0.29], P < 0.001; percentage difference in mean IV morphine equivalent dose of -5% [-25 to 21%], P = 0.002) and to ultrasound-only group (difference in mean verbal response scale pain score of -0.28 [-0.72 to 0.16], P < 0.001; percentage difference in mean IV morphine equivalent dose of -2% [-22 to 25%], P = 0.006). In addition, the use of ultrasound alone for femoral nerve catheter insertion was faster and cheaper than the other two methods. CONCLUSION: Ultrasound guidance alone without adding either stimulating needle or needle/catheter combination thus seems to be the best approach to femoral perineural catheters.

Economic trends from 2003 to 2010 for perioperative myocardial infarction: a retrospective, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Perioperative myocardial infarction (PMI) is a major surgical complication that is costly and causes much morbidity and mortality. Diagnosis and treatment of PMIs have evolved over time. Many treatments are expensive but may reduce ancillary expenses including the duration of hospital stay. The time-dependent economic impact of novel treatments for PMI remains unexplored. The authors thus evaluated absolute and incremental costs of PMI over time and discharge patterns. METHODS: Approximately 31 million inpatient discharges were analyzed between 2003 and 2010 from the California State Inpatient Database. PMI was defined using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. Propensity matching generated 21,637 pairs of comparable patients. Quantile regression modeled incremental charges as the response variable and year of discharge as the main predictor. Time trends of incremental charges adjusted to 2012 dollars, mortality, and discharge destination was evaluated. RESULTS: Median incremental charges decreased annually by $1,940 (95% CI, $620 to $3,250); P < 0.001. Compared with non-PMI patients, the median length of stay of patients who experienced PMI decreased significantly over time: yearly decrease was 0.16 (0.10 to 0.23) days; P < 0.001. No mortality differences were seen; but over time, PMI patients were increasingly likely to be transferred to another facility. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced incremental cost and unchanged mortality may reflect improving efficiency in the standard management of PMI. An increasing fraction of discharges to skilled nursing facilities seems likely a result from hospitals striving to reduce readmissions. It remains unclear whether this trend represents a transfer of cost and risk or improves patient care.

Perioperative assessment of myocardial deformation.

Evaluation of left ventricular performance improves risk assessment and guides anesthetic decisions. However, the most common echocardiographic measure of myocardial function, the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), has important limitations. LVEF is limited by subjective interpretation that reduces accuracy and reproducibility, and LVEF assesses global function without characterizing regional myocardial abnormalities. An alternative objective echocardiographic measure of myocardial function is thus needed. Myocardial deformation analysis, which performs quantitative assessment of global and regional myocardial function, may be useful for perioperative care of surgical patients. Myocardial deformation analysis evaluates left ventricular mechanics by quantifying strain and strain rate. Strain describes percent change in myocardial length in the longitudinal (from base to apex) and circumferential (encircling the short-axis of the ventricle) direction and change in thickness in the radial direction. Segmental strain describes regional myocardial function. Strain is a negative number when the ventricle shortens longitudinally or circumferentially and is positive with radial thickening. Reference values for normal longitudinal strain from a recent meta-analysis by using transthoracic echocardiography are (mean ± SD) -19.7% ± 0.4%, while radial and circumferential strain are 47.3% ± 1.9% and -23.3% ± 0.7%, respectively. The speed of myocardial deformation is also important and is characterized by strain rate. Longitudinal systolic strain rate in healthy subjects averages -1.10 ± 0.16 s. Assessment of myocardial deformation requires consideration of both strain (change in deformation), which correlates with LVEF, and strain rate (speed of deformation), which correlates with rate of rise of left ventricular pressure (dP/dt). Myocardial deformation analysis also evaluates ventricular relaxation, twist, and untwist, providing new and noninvasive methods to assess components of myocardial systolic and diastolic function. Myocardial deformation analysis is based on either Doppler or a non-Doppler technique, called speckle-tracking echocardiography. Myocardial deformation analysis provides quantitative measures of global and regional myocardial function for use in the perioperative care of the surgical patient. For example, coronary graft occlusion after coronary artery bypass grafting is detected by an acute reduction in strain in the affected coronary artery territory. In addition, assessment of left ventricular mechanics detects underlying myocardial pathology before abnormalities become apparent on conventional echocardiography. Certainly, patients with aortic regurgitation demonstrate reduced longitudinal strain before reduction in LVEF occurs, which allows detection of subclinical left ventricular dysfunction and predicts increased risk for heart failure and impaired myocardial function after surgical repair. In this review, we describe the principles, techniques, and clinical application of myocardial deformation analysis.