Discrepancy in risk assessment of hormone receptor positive early-stage breast cancer patients using breast cancer index and recurrence score.

PURPOSE: A recent comparison of the prognostic accuracy of Breast Cancer Index (BCI) and the Recurrence Score (RS) showed that BCI was more precise than RS. BCI identified a subset of RS low and intermediate risk patients with clinically relevant elevated rates of distant recurrences (DR). The current study analyzed the correlation of BCI and RS risk classification to clinical and pathological parameters and further examined the re-categorization between the two risk group indices in a multi-institutional cohort of hormone receptor positive (HR+) breast cancer patients. METHODS: 560 women with HR+, lymph node-negative breast cancer who underwent testing with RS as part of their routine clinical care were included in the final analysis. Individual risk was assessed using predefined categories of RS and BCI (Low, Intermediate and High, respectively). Correlations between BCI, RS, and standard clinical-pathological prognostic factors were examined, and re-categorization of risk groups between BCI and RS was analyzed. RESULTS: An overall significant association between histological tumor grade and RS or BCI was observed with high-grade tumors more prevalent among RS and BCI high-risk patients. The invasive ductal carcinoma histologic subtype was associated with 98% and 93% of high-risk RS and BCI cases, respectively. The invasive lobular subtype accounted for 0% and 6% of high-risk RS and BCI cases, respectively. A poor agreement between the two biomarker risk group indices was demonstrated with more than 51% of the total cohort stratified differently between BCI and RS. As compared with RS, BCI stratified fewer patients into the intermediate-risk group (29% vs. 39%, BCI and RS, respectively) and more patients into the high-risk group (19% vs. 7%, BCI and RS, respectively). Subsets of both RS low- and intermediate-risk patients were identified by BCI as high risk. CONCLUSIONS: In this clinical series, BCI and RS risk groups demonstrated a significant association with histological tumor grade. BCI showed a modest correlation with tumor size and no correlation with age, while RS showed no correlation with tumor size or age. Compared with RS, BCI classifies fewer intermediate risk patients, identifies subsets of low and intermediate RS risk patients as high-risk, and provides distinct individualized risk assessment for patients with early-stage breast cancer.

Assessment of the prognostic and predictive utility of the Breast Cancer Index (BCI): an NCIC CTG MA.14 study.

BACKGROUND: Biomarkers that can be used to accurately assess the residual risk of disease recurrence in women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer are clinically valuable. We evaluated the prognostic value of the Breast Cancer Index (BCI), a continuous risk index based on a combination of HOXB13:IL17BR and molecular grade index, in women with early breast cancer treated with either tamoxifen alone or tamoxifen plus octreotide in the NCIC MA.14 phase III clinical trial (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT00002864; registered 1 November 1999). METHODS: Gene expression analysis of BCI by real-time polymerase chain reaction was performed blinded to outcome on RNA extracted from archived formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumor samples of 299 patients with both lymph node-negative (LN-) and lymph node-positive (LN+) disease enrolled in the MA.14 trial. Our primary objective was to determine the prognostic performance of BCI based on relapse-free survival (RFS). MA.14 patients experienced similar RFS on both treatment arms. Association of gene expression data with RFS was evaluated in univariate analysis with a stratified log-rank test statistic, depicted with a Kaplan-Meier plot and an adjusted Cox survivor plot. In the multivariate assessment, we used stratified Cox regression. The prognostic performance of an emerging, optimized linear BCI model was also assessed in a post hoc analysis. RESULTS: Of 299 samples, 292 were assessed successfully for BCI for 146 patients accrued in each MA.14 treatment arm. BCI risk groups had a significant univariate association with RFS (stratified log-rank p = 0.005, unstratified log-rank p = 0.007). Adjusted 10-year RFS in BCI low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups was 87.5 %, 83.9 %, and 74.7 %, respectively. BCI had a significant prognostic effect [hazard ratio (HR) 2.34, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.33-4.11; p = 0.004], although not a predictive effect, on RFS in stratified multivariate analysis, adjusted for pathological tumor stage (HR 2.22, 95 % CI 1.22-4.07; p = 0.01). In the post hoc multivariate analysis, higher linear BCI was associated with shorter RFS (p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: BCI had a strong prognostic effect on RFS in patients with early-stage breast cancer treated with tamoxifen alone or with tamoxifen and octreotide. BCI was prognostic in both LN- and LN+ patients. This retrospective study is an independent validation of the prognostic performance of BCI in a prospective trial.