Predicting Iran's achievement to Sustainable Development Goal 3.2: A systematic analysis of neonatal mortality with scenario-based projections to 2030.

BACKGROUND: Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 (SDG 3.2) is to reduce Under-5 and neonatal mortality rates (U5MR and NMR), two major health systems' performance indicators, globally by 2030. We aimed to report Iran's U5MR and NMR status during 2010-2017 and its achievement of SDG 3.2 by 2030, using scenario-based projection. STUDY DESIGN: To estimate the national and subnational levels of U5MR and NMR, we applied an Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging (EBMA) with Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and Spatio_temporal models. We used all available data sources including: 12-year data from the Death Registration System (DRS), two censuses, and a demographic and health surveys (DHS). This study employed two approaches, Maternal Age Cohort (MAC) and Maternal Age Period (MAP), to analyze summary birth history data obtained from censuses and DHS. In addition, we calculated the child mortality rate directly from DHS using the complete birth history method. National and subnational NMR was projected up to 2030 with a scenario-based method using average Annual Rate of Reduction (ARR) introduced by UN-IGME. RESULTS: In 2017, national U5MR and NMR were 15·2 (12·4-18·0) and 11·8 (10·4-13·2), with an average ARR of 5·1% (2·1-8·9) and 3·1% (0·9-5·8) during 2010-2017, respectively. According to our projection scenarios, 17 provinces have not fulfilled SDG 3.2 for NMR yet, and the current trend (the current trend of NMR improvement in Iran) will not result in reaching SDG for some provinces by 2030; However, if each province has the same neonatal mortality annual reduction rate as the best-performing province in the same region, besides achieving SDG, the national NMR will be reduced to 5·2, and almost 92,000 newborn lives will be saved. CONCLUSIONS: Iran has achieved SDG3.2 regarding U5MR and NMR; however, there are provincial inequalities. For all provinces to reach SDG3.2, health policies should focus on reducing provincial inequalities by precise planning for neonatal health care.

National and subnational burden of female and male breast cancer and risk factors in Iran from 1990 to 2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) is one of the most burdensome cancers worldwide. Despite advancements in diagnostic and treatment modalities, developing countries are still dealing with increasing burdens and existing disparities. This study provides estimates of BC burden and associated risk factors in Iran at the national and subnational levels over 30 years (1990-2019). METHODS: Data on BC burden for Iran were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study from 1990 to 2019. GBD estimation methods were applied to explore BC incidence, prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and attributable burden to risk factors based on the GBD risk factors hierarchy. Moreover, decomposition analysis was performed to find the contribution of population growth, aging, and cause-specific incidence in the total incidence change. Age-standardized rates (per 100,000 population) and 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) were reported based on sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI). RESULTS: Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased from 18.8 (95% UI 15.3-24.1)/100,000 in 2019 to 34.0 (30.7-37.9)/100,000 in 2019 among females and from 0.2/100,000 (0.2-0.3) to 0.3/100,000 (0.3-0.4) among males. Age-standardized deaths rate (ASDR) increased slightly among females from 10.3 (8.2-13.6)/100,000 in 1990 to 11.9 (10.8-13.1)/100,000 in 2019 and remained almost the same among males-0.2/100,000 (0.1-0.2). Age-standardized DALYs rate also increased from 320.2 (265.4-405.4) to 368.7 (336.7-404.3) among females but decreased slightly in males from 4.5 (3.5-5.8) to 4.0 (3.5-4.5). Of the 417.6% increase in total incident cases from 1990-2019, 240.7% was related to cause-specific incidence. In both genders, the BC burden increased by age, including age groups under 50 before routine screening programs, and by SDI levels; the high and high-middle SDI regions had the highest BC burden in Iran. Based on the GBD risk factors hierarchy, high fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and alcohol were estimated to have the most and the least attributed DALYs for BC among females, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: BC burden increased from 1990 to 2019 in both genders, and considerable discrepancies were found among different provinces and SDI quintiles in Iran. These increasing trends appeared to be associated with social and economic developments and changes in demographic factors. Improvements in registry systems and diagnostic capacities were also probably responsible for these growing trends. Raising general awareness and improving screening programs, early detection measures, and equitable access to healthcare systems might be the initial steps to tackle the increasing trends.

A 30-year trend of ischemic heart disease burden in a developing country; a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2019 in Iran.

BACKGROUND: Evaluating the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) as the first cause of mortality worldwide is necessary to develop healthcare policies. This study aimed to report the national and subnational IHD burden and risk factors in Iran according to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. METHODS: We extracted, processed, and presented the results of the GBD 2019 study regarding incidence, prevalence, deaths, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and attributable burden to risk factors of IHD in Iran during 1990-2019. RESULTS: Age-standardized death and DALY rates decreased by 42.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 38.1-47.9) and 47.7% (43.6-52.9) during 1990-2019, slower since 2011 and reached 163.6 deaths (149.0-176.2), 2842.7 DALYs (2657.0-3103.1) per 100,000 persons in 2019. Meanwhile, with a lower reduction of 7.7% (6.0-9.5), the incidence rate reached 829.1 new cases (719.9-945.2) per 100,000 persons in 2019. High systolic blood pressure and elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) contributed to the highest deaths, and DALYs age-standardized rates in 1990 and 2019. They followed by high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and high body-mass index (BMI) with an upward trend of contribution from 1990 to 2019. A convergence pattern in the provincial death age-standardized rate was observed, with the lowest rate in Iran's capital city; 84.7 deaths per 100,000 (70.6-99.4) in 2019. CONCLUSION: The incidence rate reduced remarkably lower than the mortality rate, which necessitates promoting primary prevention strategies. Also, interventions should be adopted to control growing risk factors like high FPG, and high BMI.

The burden of childhood and adolescent cancers in North Africa and the Middle East (NAME) region: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the significant burden of childhood and adolescent cancers, no specific studies recently discussed the burden of cancer in this group in the North Africa and the Middle East (NAME) region. Therefore, we aimed to study the burden of cancers in this group in this region. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrieved the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data for children and adolescent cancers (0-19 years old) in the NAME region from 1990 to 2019. 21 types of neoplasms were grouped as "neoplasms", comprising 19 specific cancer groups as well as "other malignant neoplasms" and "other neoplasms". Three significant parameters of incidence, deaths, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were studied. The data are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI), and reported rates per 100,000. RESULTS: In 2019, almost 6 million (95% UI: 4.166 M-8.405 M) new cases and 11,560(9770-13,578) deaths due to neoplasms occurred in the NAME region. Incidence was higher in females (3.4 M), while deaths (6226 of overall 11,560) and DALYs (501,118 of overall 933,885) were estimated as higher in males. Incidence rates did not significantly change since 1990, while deaths and DALYs rates declined significantly. After excluding "other malignant neoplasms" and "other neoplasms", leukemia was responsible for the highest number of incidence and deaths (incidence: 10,629(8237-13,081), deaths: 4053(3135-5013), followed by brain and central nervous system cancers (incidence: 5897(4192-7134), deaths: 2446(1761-2960)), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (incidence: 2741 (2237-3392), deaths: 790(645-962)). Incidence rates of neoplasms were similar for most countries, but countries varied more in terms of death rates. Afghanistan 8.9(6.5-11.9), Sudan 6.4(4.5-8.6), and the Syrian Arab Republic 5.6(4.3-8.3) had the highest overall death rates. CONCLUSION: The NAME region is observing relatively constant incidence rates and a decreasing pattern in the deaths and DALYs. Despite this success, several countries are lagging behind in development. Different issues such as economic problems, armed conflicts and political instabilities, lack of equipment or experienced staff or poor distribution, stigmatization and disbelief in the healthcare systems account for unfavorable numbers in some countries. Such problems require urgent solutions as new sophisticated and personalized cares raise the alarm for even more inequalities between high and low-income countries.

Expansion of the quality of care index on breast cancer and its risk factors using the global burden of disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC), as the top neoplasm in prevalence and mortality in females, imposes a heavy burden on health systems. Evaluation of quality of care and management of patients with BC and its responsible risk factors was the aim of this study. METHODS: We retrieved epidemiologic data of BC from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990-2019 database. Epidemiology and burden of BC and its risk factors were explored besides the Quality of Care Index (QCI) introduced before, to assess the provided care for patients with BC in various scales. Provided care for BC risk factors was investigated by their impact on years of life lost and years lived with disability by a novel risk factor quality index (rQCI). We used the socio-demographic index (SDI) to compare results in different socio-economic levels. RESULTS: In 2019, 1,977,212 (95% UI: 1,807,615-2,145,215) new cases of BC in females and 25,143 (22,231-27,786) in males was diagnosed and this major cancer caused 688,562 (635,323-739,571) deaths in females and 12,098 (10,693-13,322) deaths in males, globally. The all-age number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years attributed to BC risk factors in females had an increasing pattern, with a more prominent pattern in metabolic risks. The global estimated age-standardized QCI for BC in females in 2019 was 78.7. The estimated QCI was highest in high SDI regions (95.7). The top countries with the highest calculated QCI in 2019 were Iceland (100), Japan (99.8), and Finland (98.8), and the bottom countries were Mozambique (16.0), Somalia (8.2), and Central African Republic (5.3). The global estimated age-standardized rQCI for females was 82.2 in 2019. CONCLUSION: In spite of the partially restrained burden of BC in recent years, the attributable burden to risk factors has increased remarkably. Countries with higher SDI provided better care regarding both the condition and its responsible risk factors.

A global, regional, and national survey on burden and Quality of Care Index (QCI) of bladder cancer: The global burden of disease study 1990-2019.

INTRODUCTION: Bladder cancer (BCa) is the second most common genitourinary cancer and among the leading causes of cancer-related deaths. We aimed to assess BCa quality of care (QOC) utilizing a novel multi-variable quality of care index (QCI). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease 1990-2019 database. QCI scores were calculated using four indices of prevalence-to-incidence ratio, Disability-Adjusted Life Years-to-prevalence ratio, mortality-to-incidence ratio, and Years of Life Lost-to-Years Lived with Disability ratio. We used principal component analysis to allocate 0-100 QCI scores based on region, age groups, year, and gender. RESULTS: Global burden of BCa is on the rise with 524,305 (95% UI 475,952-569,434) new BCa cases and 228,735 (95% UI 210743-243193) deaths in 2019, but age-standardized incidence and mortality rates did not increase. Global age-standardized QCI improved from 75.7% in 1990 to 80.9% in 2019. The European and African regions had the highest and lowest age-standardized QCI of 89.7% and 37.6%, respectively. Higher Socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles had better QCI scores, ranging from 90.1% in high SDI to 30.2% in low SDI countries in 2019; however, 5-year QCI improvements from 2014 to 2019 were 0.0 for high and 4.7 for low SDI countries. CONCLUSION: The global QCI increased in the last 30 years, but the gender disparities remained relatively unchanged despite substantial improvements in several regions. Higher SDI quintiles had superior QOC and less gender- and age-based inequalities compared to lower SDI countries. We encourage countries to implement the learned lessons and improve their QOC shortcomings.

Burden of type 1 diabetes mellitus in the North Africa and Middle East Region, 1990-2019; findings from the global burden of disease study.

AIMS: We aimed to report the burden of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) in the North Africa and Middle East region and its 21 countries from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Information related to incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) of T1DM was acquired from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study. The burden was estimated by sex, age groups, and socio-demographic index (SDI) in 21 countries. RESULTS: Over the past 30 years, regional incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs of T1DM increase by 188.7%, 304.8%, 43.7%, and 71.6%, respectively. While the age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates increased by 84% and 91%, the mortality and DALYs rates decreased by 34% and 13%. During these years, the contribution of YLDs to total DALYs increased considerably (from 17% to 42%). The highest increase in the incidence and prevalence rates occurred in high SDI countries. Moreover, the Mortality to Incidence Ratio (MIR) decreased in the region countries. CONCLUSIONS: Despite progress made in diabetes care, there is a persistently increasing burden of T1DM in the region countries. This indicates that T1DM is still one of the major health challenges in the region countries, especially in high SDI Arab countries.

Global, regional, and national burden and quality of care index in children and adolescents: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 1990-2017.

PURPOSE: To express a global view of care quality in major causes of mortality and morbidity in children and adolescences. METHODS: We used primary epidemiologic indicators from the Global Burden of Disease 1990-2017 database. We have created four secondary indices from six primary indices in order to assess the care quality parameters. We conducted a principal component analysis on incidence, prevalence, mortality, Years of Life Lost (YLLs), Years Lived with Disability (YLDs), and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) to create an index presented by quality-of-care index (QCI) to compare different countries. RESULTS: The global QCI scores of respiratory infection, enteric infection, leukemia, foreign body aspiration, asthma, epilepsy, diabetes mellitus, dermatitis, road injury, and neonatal disorders have improved remarkably. These causes showed equal distribution of qualified care for both sexes. The global trend of QCI score for mental health showed a steady pattern during the same time and disparities favoring females was evident. The quality of care for these causes was notably higher in developed areas. CONCLUSIONS: The global QCI revealed a universal growth in major causes of death and morbidity in <20y during 28 years. Quality of care is an associate of the level of country's development. Despite effective interventions, inequities still remain. Implementation of policies to invest in quality improvement and inequality elimination is needed.

The global, regional, and national burden and quality of care index (QCI) of colorectal cancer; a global burden of disease systematic analysis 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is among the five most incident and lethal cancers in world and its burden varies between countries and sexes. We aimed to present a comprehensive measure called the quality of care index (QCI) to evaluate the inequity and healthcare quality of care regarding CRC by sex and location. METHODS: Data on the burden of CRC were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. It was transformed to four ratios, including mortality-to-incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)-to-prevalence, prevalence-to-incidence, and years of life lost (YLLs)-to-years lived with disability (YLDs). Principal component analysis was implemented on the four ratios and the most influential component was considered as QCI with a score ranging from zero to 100, for which higher scores represented better quality of care. Gender Disparity Ratio (GDR) was calculated by dividing QCI for females by males. RESULTS: The global incidence and death numbers of CRC were 2,166,168 (95% uncertainty interval: 1,996,298-2,342,842) and 1,085,797 (1,002,795-1,149,679) in 2019, respectively. Globally, QCI and GDR values were 77.6 and 1.0 respectively in 2019. There was a positive association between the level of quality of care and socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles. Region of the Americas and African Region had the highest and lowest QCI values, respectively (84.4 vs. 23.6). The QCI values started decreasing beyond the age of 75 in 2019 worldwide. CONCLUSION: There is heterogeneity in QCI between SDI quintiles. More attention should be paid to people aged more than 75 years old because of the lower quality of care in this group.

National and subnational burden of stroke in Iran from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Data on the burden of stroke and changing trends at national and subnational levels are necessary for policymakers to allocate recourses appropriately. This study presents estimates of the stroke burden from 1990 to 2019 using the results of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. METHODS: For the GBD 2019, verbal autopsy and vital registration data were used to estimate stroke mortality. Cause-specific mortality served as the basis for estimating incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The burden attributable to stroke risk factors was calculated by a comparative risk assessment. Decomposition analysis was applied to determine the contribution of population aging, population growth, and changes in the age-specific incidence rates. RESULTS: In 2019, the number of prevalent cases, incident cases, and deaths due to stroke in Iran were 963,512; 102,778; and 40,912, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased from 1990 to 2019. Of national stroke ASDRs in 2019, 44.7% (35.7-54.7%) were attributable to hypertension and 28.8% (15.2-57.4) to high fasting plasma glucose. At the subnational level, the trend of the stroke incidence and mortality rate decreased in all provinces. Stroke was responsible for 4.48% of total DALYs in 2019 (3.38% due to ischemic stroke, 0.87% due to intracerebral hemorrhage, and 0.22% due to subarachnoid hemorrhage). CONCLUSION: ASIR and ASDR of stroke are decreasing nationally and subnationally; however, the number of incident cases and deaths are increasing in all SDI quintiles, possibly due to population growth.

Trends in Global, Regional, and National Burden and Quality of Care Index for Liver Cancer by Cause from Global Burden of Disease 1990-2019.

Despite the tremendous burden of liver cancer and its underlying causes on humankind, there appear to be heterogeneities in coping approaches. The objective of this study was to compare the burden and the quality-of-care of liver cancer by causes among different countries and regions in both sexes and various age groups 1990-2019. Data of liver cancer and underlying causes, including hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), alcohol use, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and other causes were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases 2019. Incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were assessed. Principal component analysis was used to combine age-standardized mortality-to-incidence ratio, DALY-to-prevalence ratio, prevalence-to-incidence ratio, and years of life lost-to-years lived with disability into a single proxy named Quality of Care Index (QCI). Globally, the age-standardized incidence, DALYs, and death rates decreased from 1990 to 2019, while the QCI scores increased by 68.5%. The QCI score of liver cancer was from as high as 83.3 in high Sociodemographic Index (SDI) countries to values as low as 26.4 in low SDI countries in 2019. Japan had the highest QCI score (QCI = 100). The age-standardized death rates of liver cancer due to all underlying causes were decreasing during the past 30 years, with the most decrease for HBV. Consistently, the global QCI scores of liver cancer due to HBV, HCV, alcohol use, NASH, and other causes reached 53.5, 61.8, 54.3, 52.9, and 63.7, respectively, in 2019. Conclusion: Although the trends in burden are decreasing and the QCI improved from 1990 to 2019 globally, there is a wide gap between countries. Given the inequities in health care quality, there is an urgent need to address discrimination and bridge the gap.