A Systemic Inflammation Mortality Risk Assessment Contingency Table for Severe Sepsis.

OBJECTIVES: We tested the hypothesis that a C-reactive protein and ferritin-based systemic inflammation contingency table can track mortality risk in pediatric severe sepsis. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Tertiary PICU. PATIENTS: Children with 100 separate admission episodes of severe sepsis were enrolled. INTERVENTIONS: Blood samples were attained on day 2 of sepsis and bi-weekly for biomarker batch analysis. A 2 × 2 contingency table using C-reactive protein and ferritin thresholds was developed. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A C-reactive protein of 4.08 mg/dL and a ferritin of 1,980 ng/mL were found to be optimal cutoffs for outcome prediction at first sampling (n = 100) using the Youden index. PICU mortality was increased in the "high-risk" C-reactive protein greater than or equal to 4.08 mg/dL and ferritin greater than or equal to 1,980 ng/mL category (6/13 [46.15%]) compared with the "intermediate-risk" C-reactive protein greater than or equal to 4.08 mg/dL and ferritin less than 1,980 ng/mL or C-reactive protein less than 4.08 mg/dL and ferritin greater than or equal to 1,980 ng/mL categories (2/43 [4.65%]), and the "low-risk" C-reactive protein less than 4.08 mg/dL and ferritin less than 1,980 ng/mL category (0/44 [0%]) (odds ratio, 36.43 [95% CI, 6.16-215.21]). The high-risk category was also associated with the development of immunoparalysis (odds ratio, 4.47 [95% CI, 1.34-14.96]) and macrophage activation syndrome (odds ratio, 24.20 [95% CI, 5.50-106.54]). Sixty-three children underwent sequential blood sampling; those who were initially in the low-risk category (n = 24) and those who subsequently migrated (n = 19) to the low-risk category all survived, whereas those who remained in the "at-risk" categories had increased mortality (7/20 [35%]; p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: A C-reactive protein- and ferritin-based contingency table effectively assessed mortality risk. Reduction in systemic inflammation below a combined threshold C-reactive protein of 4.08 mg/dL and ferritin of 1,980 ng/mL appeared to be a desired response in children with severe sepsis.

Validation of diagnostic codes for subtrochanteric, diaphyseal, and atypical femoral fractures using administrative claims data.

Administrative claims databases have large samples and high generalizability. They have been used to evaluate associations of atypical femoral fractures with bisphosphonates. We developed and assessed accuracy of claims-based algorithms with hospital and physician diagnosis codes for these fractures. Medical records and radiology reports of all adults admitted at University of Alabama at Birmingham Health System from 2004 to 2008 with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision hospital discharges and surgeons' fracture repair codes for subtrochanteric femoral fractures and random sample of other femoral fractures were reviewed. We identified 137 persons with suspected subtrochanteric femoral fractures and randomly selected 50 persons with either suspected diaphyseal femoral fractures or hip fractures other than subtrochanteric and diaphyseal femoral fractures (typical hip fractures). Eleven patients had radiographic features indicative of atypical femoral fractures. The positive predictive value (PPV) of claims-based algorithms varied with primary or secondary positions on discharge diagnoses and the sources of diagnosis codes. The PPV for fractures ranged 69-89% for subtrochanteric femoral, 89-98% for diaphyseal femoral, and 85-98% for typical hip fractures. The PPV of administrative codes for defining a femoral fracture as atypical was low and imprecise. Claims-based algorithms combining hospital discharges with surgeon's diagnosis codes had high PPV to identify the site of subtrochanteric or diaphyseal femoral fractures vs typical hip fractures. However, claims-based data were not accurate in identifying atypical femoral fractures. These claims algorithms will be useful in future population-based observational studies to evaluate associations between osteoporosis medications and subtrochanteric and diaphyseal femoral fractures.