A Proteomics-Based Assessment of Inflammation Signatures in Endotoxemia.

We have previously shown that multimers of plasma pentraxin-3 (PTX3) were predictive of survival in patients with sepsis. To characterize the release kinetics and cellular source of plasma protein changes in sepsis, serial samples were obtained from healthy volunteers (n = 10; three time points) injected with low-dose endotoxin (lipopolysaccharide [LPS]) and analyzed using data-independent acquisition MS. The human plasma proteome response was compared with an LPS-induced endotoxemia model in mice. Proteomic analysis of human plasma revealed a rapid neutrophil degranulation signature, followed by a rise in acute phase proteins. Changes in circulating PTX3 correlated with increases in neutrophil-derived proteins following LPS injection. Time course analysis of the plasma proteome in mice showed a time-dependent increase in multimeric PTX3, alongside increases in neutrophil-derived myeloperoxidase (MPO) upon LPS treatment. The mechanisms of oxidation-induced multimerization of PTX3 were explored in two genetic mouse models: MPO global knock-out (KO) mice and LysM Cre Nox2 KO mice, in which NADPH oxidase 2 (Nox2) is only deficient in myeloid cells. Nox2 is the enzyme responsible for the oxidative burst in neutrophils. Increases in plasma multimeric PTX3 were not significantly different between wildtype and MPO or LysM Cre Nox2 KO mice. Thus, PTX3 may already be stored and released in a multimeric form. Through in vivo neutrophil depletion and multiplexed vascular proteomics, PTX3 multimer deposition within the aorta was confirmed to be neutrophil dependent. Proteomic analysis of aortas from LPS-injected mice returned PTX3 as the most upregulated protein, where multimeric PTX3 was deposited as early as 2 h post-LPS along with other neutrophil-derived proteins. In conclusion, the rise in multimeric PTX3 upon LPS injection correlates with neutrophil-related protein changes in plasma and aortas. MPO and myeloid Nox2 are not required for the multimerization of PTX3; instead, neutrophil extravasation is responsible for the LPS-induced deposition of multimeric PTX3 in the aorta.

Development, Validation, and Clinical Utility Assessment of a Prognostic Score for 1-Year Unplanned Rehospitalization or Death of Adult Sepsis Survivors.

Importance: The longer-term risk of rehospitalizations and death of adult sepsis survivors is associated with index sepsis illness characteristics. Objective: To derive and validate a parsimonious prognostic score for unplanned rehospitalizations or death in the first year after hospital discharge of adult sepsis survivors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre Case Mix Programme database on adult sepsis survivors identified from consecutive critical care admissions to 192 adult general critical care units in England, United Kingdom, between April 1, 2009, and March 31, 2014 (94 748 patients in the derivation cohort), and between April 1, 2014, and March 31, 2015 (24 669 patients in the validation cohort). Statistical analysis was performed from July 5 to October 31, 2019. Generic characteristics (age, sex, race/ethnicity, 2015 Index of Multiple Deprivation [IMD2015] in England quintiles, preadmission dependence, previous hospitalizations in the year preceding index sepsis admission, comorbidity, admission type, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II physiology score, hospital length of stay, worst blood lactate and blood hemoglobin concentrations, and type of hospital) and sepsis-specific characteristics (site of infection, numbers of organ dysfunctions, and organ support) at the index sepsis admission were used as predictors. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prognostic score derived and validated using multivariable logistic regression for the outcome of unplanned rehospitalization or death in the first year after hospital discharge of adult sepsis survivors, as well as clinical usefulness assessed using decision curve analysis. Prognostic score validation was performed for internal validation with bootstrapping and temporal cohort external validation. Results: This cohort study included 94 748 patients (51 164 men [54.0%]; mean [SD] age, 61.3 [17.0] years) in the derivation cohort and 24 669 patients (13 255 men [53.7%]; mean [SD] age, 62.1 [16.8%]) in the validation cohort. Unplanned rehospitalization or death in the first year after hospital discharge occurred for 48 594 patients (51.3%) in the derivation cohort and 13 129 patients (53.2%) in the validation cohort. Eight independent predictors were identified and weighted to generate a prognostic score for every patient: previous hospitalizations, age in 10-year increments, IMD2015 in England quintiles, preadmission dependence, comorbidities, admission type, blood hemoglobin level, and site of infection. The total prognostic score ranged from 0 to 22 points, with lower scores indicating a lower risk of the outcome. The derivation and validation cohorts had similar rates of prognostic scores of 0 to 4 points (5088 of 16 684 patients [30.5%] and 471 of 1725 patients [27.3%]) and prognostic scores of 11 points or more (15 732 of 21 641 patients [72.7%] and 5753 of 7952 patients [72.3%]). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the prognostic score was 0.675 (95% CI, 0.672-0.679). The decision curve analysis highlighted an optimal score cutoff of 7 points or more. Conclusions and Relevance: The prognostic score reported in this study uses 8 internationally feasible predictors measured during the index sepsis admission and provides clinically useful information on sepsis survivors' risk of unplanned rehospitalization or death in the first year after hospital discharge.

Demographic Shifts, Case Mix, Activity, and Outcome for Elderly Patients Admitted to Adult General ICUs in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

OBJECTIVES: Major increases in the proportion of elderly people in the population are predicted worldwide. These population increases, along with improving therapeutic options and more aggressive treatment of elderly patients, will have major impact on the future need for healthcare resources, including critical care. Our objectives were to explore the trends in admissions, resource use, and risk-adjusted hospital mortality for older patients, admitted over a 20-year period between 1997 and 2016 to adult general ICUs in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. DESIGN: RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL CLINICAL AUDIT DATABASE. SETTING: The Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre Case Mix Programme Database, the national clinical audit for adult general ICUs in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. PATIENTS: All adult patients 16 years old or older admitted to adult general ICUs contributing data to the Case Mix Programme Database between January 1, 1997, and December 31, 2016. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The annual number, trends, and outcomes for patients across four age bands (16-64, 65-74, 75-84, and 85+ yr) admitted to ICUs contributing to the Case Mix Programme Database from 1997 to 2016 were examined. Case mix, activity, and outcome were described in detail for the most recent cohort of patients admitted in 2015-2016. Between 1997 to 2016, the annual number of admissions to ICU of patients in the older age bands increased disproportionately, with increases that could not be explained solely by general U.K. demographic shifts. The risk-adjusted acute hospital mortality decreased significantly within each age band over the 20-year period of the study. Although acute severity at ICU admission was comparable with that of the younger age group, apart from cardiovascular and renal dysfunction, older patients received less organ support. Older patients stayed longer in hospital post-ICU discharge, and hospital mortality increased with age, but the majority of patients surviving to hospital discharge returned home. CONCLUSIONS: Over the past two decades, elderly patients have been more commonly admitted to ICU than can be explained solely by the demographic shift. Importantly, as with the wider population, outcomes in elderly patients admitted to ICU are improving over time, with most patients returning home.

Differences in Impact of Definitional Elements on Mortality Precludes International Comparisons of Sepsis Epidemiology-A Cohort Study Illustrating the Need for Standardized Reporting.

OBJECTIVES: Sepsis generates significant global acute illness burden. The international variations in sepsis epidemiology (illness burden) have implications for region specific health policy. We hypothesised that there have been changes over time in the sepsis definitional elements (infection and organ dysfunction), and these may have impacted on hospital mortality. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: We evaluated a high quality, nationally representative, clinical ICU database including data from 181 adult ICUs in England. PATIENTS: Nine hundred sixty-seven thousand five hundred thirty-two consecutive adult ICU admissions from January 2000 to December 2012. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: To address the proposed hypothesis, we evaluated a high quality, nationally representative, clinical, ICU database of 967,532 consecutive admissions to 181 adult ICUs in England, from January 2000 to December 2012, to identify sepsis cases in a robust and reproducible way. Multinomial logistic regression was used to report unadjusted trends in sepsis definitional elements and in mortality risk categories based on organ dysfunction combinations. We generated logistic regression models and assessed statistical interactions with acute hospital mortality as outcome and cohort characteristics, sepsis definitional elements, and mortality risk categories as covariates. Finally, we calculated postestimation statistics to illustrate the magnitude of clinically meaningful improvements in sepsis outcomes over the study period. Over the study period, there were 248,864 sepsis admissions (25.7%). Sepsis mortality varied by infection sources (19.1% for genitourinary to 43.0% for respiratory; p < 0.001), by number of organ dysfunctions (18.5% for 1 to 69.9% for 5; p < 0.001), and organ dysfunction combinations (18.5% for risk category 1 to 58.0% for risk category 4). The rate of improvement in adjusted hospital mortality was significant (odds ratio, 0.939 [0.934-0.945] per year; p < 0.001), but showed different secular trends in improvement between infection sources. CONCLUSIONS: Within a sepsis cohort, we illustrate case-mix heterogeneity using definitional elements (infection source and organ dysfunction). In the context of improving outcomes, we illustrate differential secular trends in impact of these variables on adjusted mortality and propose this as a valid reason for international variations in sepsis epidemiology. Our article highlights the need to determine standardized reporting elements for optimal comparisons of international sepsis epidemiology.

Assessment of Clinical Criteria for Sepsis: For the Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock (Sepsis-3).

IMPORTANCE: The Third International Consensus Definitions Task Force defined sepsis as "life-threatening organ dysfunction due to a dysregulated host response to infection." The performance of clinical criteria for this sepsis definition is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the validity of clinical criteria to identify patients with suspected infection who are at risk of sepsis. DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND POPULATION: Among 1.3 million electronic health record encounters from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2012, at 12 hospitals in southwestern Pennsylvania, we identified those with suspected infection in whom to compare criteria. Confirmatory analyses were performed in 4 data sets of 706,399 out-of-hospital and hospital encounters at 165 US and non-US hospitals ranging from January 1, 2008, until December 31, 2013. EXPOSURES: Sequential [Sepsis-related] Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria, Logistic Organ Dysfunction System (LODS) score, and a new model derived using multivariable logistic regression in a split sample, the quick Sequential [Sepsis-related] Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score (range, 0-3 points, with 1 point each for systolic hypotension [≤100 mm Hg], tachypnea [≥22/min], or altered mentation). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: For construct validity, pairwise agreement was assessed. For predictive validity, the discrimination for outcomes (primary: in-hospital mortality; secondary: in-hospital mortality or intensive care unit [ICU] length of stay ≥3 days) more common in sepsis than uncomplicated infection was determined. Results were expressed as the fold change in outcome over deciles of baseline risk of death and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS: In the primary cohort, 148,907 encounters had suspected infection (n = 74,453 derivation; n = 74,454 validation), of whom 6347 (4%) died. Among ICU encounters in the validation cohort (n = 7932 with suspected infection, of whom 1289 [16%] died), the predictive validity for in-hospital mortality was lower for SIRS (AUROC = 0.64; 95% CI, 0.62-0.66) and qSOFA (AUROC = 0.66; 95% CI, 0.64-0.68) vs SOFA (AUROC = 0.74; 95% CI, 0.73-0.76; P < .001 for both) or LODS (AUROC = 0.75; 95% CI, 0.73-0.76; P < .001 for both). Among non-ICU encounters in the validation cohort (n = 66 522 with suspected infection, of whom 1886 [3%] died), qSOFA had predictive validity (AUROC = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.80-0.82) that was greater than SOFA (AUROC = 0.79; 95% CI, 0.78-0.80; P < .001) and SIRS (AUROC = 0.76; 95% CI, 0.75-0.77; P < .001). Relative to qSOFA scores lower than 2, encounters with qSOFA scores of 2 or higher had a 3- to 14-fold increase in hospital mortality across baseline risk deciles. Findings were similar in external data sets and for the secondary outcome. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among ICU encounters with suspected infection, the predictive validity for in-hospital mortality of SOFA was not significantly different than the more complex LODS but was statistically greater than SIRS and qSOFA, supporting its use in clinical criteria for sepsis. Among encounters with suspected infection outside of the ICU, the predictive validity for in-hospital mortality of qSOFA was statistically greater than SOFA and SIRS, supporting its use as a prompt to consider possible sepsis.

Accounting for Heterogeneity in Relative Treatment Effects for Use in Cost-Effectiveness Models and Value-of-Information Analyses.

Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) models are routinely used to inform health care policy. Key model inputs include relative effectiveness of competing treatments, typically informed by meta-analysis. Heterogeneity is ubiquitous in meta-analysis, and random effects models are usually used when there is variability in effects across studies. In the absence of observed treatment effect modifiers, various summaries from the random effects distribution (random effects mean, predictive distribution, random effects distribution, or study-specific estimate [shrunken or independent of other studies]) can be used depending on the relationship between the setting for the decision (population characteristics, treatment definitions, and other contextual factors) and the included studies. If covariates have been measured that could potentially explain the heterogeneity, then these can be included in a meta-regression model. We describe how covariates can be included in a network meta-analysis model and how the output from such an analysis can be used in a CEA model. We outline a model selection procedure to help choose between competing models and stress the importance of clinical input. We illustrate the approach with a health technology assessment of intravenous immunoglobulin for the management of adult patients with severe sepsis in an intensive care setting, which exemplifies how risk of bias information can be incorporated into CEA models. We show that the results of the CEA and value-of-information analyses are sensitive to the model and highlight the importance of sensitivity analyses when conducting CEA in the presence of heterogeneity. The methods presented extend naturally to heterogeneity in other model inputs, such as baseline risk.

Intravenous immunoglobulin for severe sepsis and septic shock: clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and value of a further randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Prior to investing in a large, multicentre randomised controlled trial (RCT), the National Institute for Health Research in the UK called for an evaluation of the feasibility and value for money of undertaking a trial on intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) as an adjuvant therapy for severe sepsis/septic shock. METHODS: In response to this call, this study assessed the clinical and cost-effectiveness of IVIG (using a decision model), and evaluated the value of conducting an RCT (using expected value of information (EVI) analysis). The evidence informing such assessments was obtained through a series of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Further primary data analyses were also undertaken using the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre Case Mix Programme Database, and a Scottish Intensive Care Society research study. RESULTS: We found a large degree of statistical heterogeneity in the clinical evidence on treatment effect, and the source of such heterogeneity was unclear. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of IVIG is within the borderline region of estimates considered to represent value for money, but results appear highly sensitive to the choice of model used for clinical effectiveness. This was also the case with EVI estimates, with maximum payoffs from conducting a further clinical trial between £ 137 and £ 1,011 million. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses suggest that there is a need for a further RCT. Results on the value of conducting such research, however, were sensitive to the clinical effectiveness model used, reflecting the high level of heterogeneity in the evidence base.

Quantitative assessment of the effects of therapeutic hypothermia on early repolarization in idiopathic ventricular fibrillation survivors: a 7-year cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The early repolarization (ER) pattern on ECG is associated with an increased risk of idiopathic ventricular fibrillation (ID-VF). Hypothermia is known to result in similar electrocardiographic changes. In this retrospective cohort study, we examine the impact of therapeutic hypothermia on ER in survivors of cardiac arrest attributed to ID-VF and draw comparisons with a control group who experienced coronary artery disease-related VF (CAD-VF). METHODS AND RESULTS: All patients who had cardiac arrest and were treated with therapeutic hypothermia over a 7-year period were considered for inclusion in the study. Forty-three patients were identified with ID-VF or CAD-VF arrest. ECGs were obtained during cooling and again after rewarming. ECGs were digitized and assessed for the presence of ER by 2 independent observers. Cooling significantly increased the prevalence (74% during cooling versus 51% at baseline temperature; P=0.044) and mean amplitude (0.78±0.10 mV during cooling versus 0.56±0.09 mV at baseline temperature; P=0.038) of ER in the overall cohort. During cooling, ER was more common among survivors of ID-VF than of CAD-VF (100% versus 67%; P=0.043). ER magnitude was significantly greater among ID-VF survivors than CAD-VF survivors both during cooling (1.16±0.18 versus 0.70±0.11 mV; P=0.044) and at baseline temperature (1.02±0.21 versus 0.42±0.09 mV; P=0.005). CONCLUSIONS: Hypothermia increases both the prevalence and magnitude of ER in cardiac arrest survivors. Despite the association of ER with ID-VF, therapeutic hypothermia only increases ER amplitude in CAD-VF survivors.