Modelling the COVID-19 pandemic in context: an international participatory approach.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on multiple levels of society. Not only has the pandemic completely overwhelmed some health systems but it has also changed how scientific evidence is shared and increased the pace at which such evidence is published and consumed, by scientists, policymakers and the wider public. More significantly, the pandemic has created tremendous challenges for decision-makers, who have had to implement highly disruptive containment measures with very little empirical scientific evidence to support their decision-making process. Given this lack of data, predictive mathematical models have played an increasingly prominent role. In high-income countries, there is a long-standing history of established research groups advising policymakers, whereas a general lack of translational capacity has meant that mathematical models frequently remain inaccessible to policymakers in low-income and middle-income countries. Here, we describe a participatory approach to modelling that aims to circumvent this gap. Our approach involved the creation of an international group of infectious disease modellers and other public health experts, which culminated in the establishment of the COVID-19 Modelling (CoMo) Consortium. Here, we describe how the consortium was formed, the way it functions, the mathematical model used and, crucially, the high degree of engagement fostered between CoMo Consortium members and their respective local policymakers and ministries of health.

Induced abortion and associated factors among female sex workers in Iran.

OBJECTIVES: Induced abortion is an occupational hazard for female sex workers (FSWs). This study aimed to examine the prevalence and factors associated with induced abortion among FSWs in Iran. METHODS: 1337 FSWs aged ≥18 years who reported selling sex to more than one male client in the past 12 months were recruited in 13 major cities in Iran between January and August 2015. Bivariable and multivariable modified Poisson regression models were constructed to examine the correlates of induced abortion. Adjusted prevalence ratios (APRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were reported. RESULTS: Lifetime induced abortion was reported by 621 of 1335 participants (46.5%; 95% CI 43.8, 49.2). Older age (APR for ≥ 35 vs. < 25 years, 1.46; 95% CI: 1.03, 2.07), having ever been married (APR 1.58; 95% CI 1.05, 2.39), having ever worked in a brothel (APR 1.19; 95% CI 1.02, 1.38) and a lifetime history of being raped (APR 1.19; 95% CI 1.03, 1.38) were significantly associated with lifetime induced abortion (all p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The high prevalence of induced abortion among FSWs in Iran is concerning. Evidence-informed programmes targeting FSWs in Iran would improve their knowledge and encourage contraceptive use as well as promote pregnancy prevention and post-abortion care.

Barriers and motivators to participation and retention in HIV/HCV cohort studies among people who inject drugs: a community consultation in Iran.

BACKGROUND: The lack of robust estimates of HIV/HCV incidence among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Iran calls for well-designed prospective cohort studies. Successful recruitment and follow-up of PWID in cohort studies may require formative assessment of barriers PWID are faced with in participation and retention in cohort studies and factors they think may facilitate their engagement in such studies. Using a focus group discussion (FGD) format, we conducted a consultation with PWID in southeast Iran to recognize those barriers and motivators. METHODS: Using targeted sampling and through snowball referrals, we recruited PWID (aged≥18, injected in last 6 months) from community-based drop-in centers (DICs), homeless shelters, and through outreach efforts to participate in four FGDs (one women-only). Socio-demographic characteristics, injection behaviors and self-reported HCV/HIV testing and diagnosis history were obtained. Then, a semi-structured FGD guide was applied to explore barriers and motivators to participation and retention in cohort studies among study participants. All FGD sessions were recorded and transcribed verbatim, removing any identifying information. The content of FGDs were analyzed by thematic analysis using an inductive approach. RESULTS: In total, 30 individuals (10 women) participated in the study. The median age of participants was 35 (IQR 31-40), with majority (73.3%) reporting injecting drug use within the last month. Only 40.0% reported ever being tested for HCV whereas a larger proportion (63.4%) reported ever being tested for HIV. While the majority were willing to participate in cohort studies, breach of confidentiality, fear of positive test results, perceived required commitment, and marginalization were reported as barriers to participation and retention in such studies. Monetary incentive, the thought of a better life, protection from police interventions and trust between health workers and PWID were addressed as motivators of engagement in cohort studies among PWID. CONCLUSIONS: Strategies to enhance data security and reduce stigma associated with injecting drug use along with involving peer workers in research, providing pre and post-test counselling and education and addressing the needs of more marginalized groups potentially through integrated healthcare programs and housing support are among few approaches that may help address barriers and strengthen the motivators for successful cohort studies among this population.

Decomposition of Economic Inequality in Needle and Syringe Programs Utilization to its Determinants among Men Who Inject Drugs in Tehran using Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition Method.

BACKGROUND: According to latest available data there are more of 300,000 people injects drug users (PWID) in Iran. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we used a Blinder-Oaxaca (BO) decomposition to explore the relative contributions of inequality in utilization of NSPs and to decompose it to its determinants in Teheran. METHODS: We used data from a cross-sectional survey using snowball sampling to recruit 500 PWID from June to July 2016 in Tehran. Participants were reported injecting drug use in the past month, were able to speak and comprehend Farsi enough to respond to survey questions, and were able to provide informed consent to complete the interview. We used a BO method to decompose the role of economic inequality on utilization of needle and syringe programs. RESULTS: A total 520 of clients participated in the study of which data was fully complete for 500. The selected predictor variables (age, education level, marital status, homelessness, HIV risk perception, and HIV knowledge) together explain 54% (8.5% out of 16%) of total inequality in utilization of needle and syringe programs and the remaining 46% constitute the unexplained residual. HIV risk perception status contributed about 38% (3.3% out of 8.5%) to the total health inequality, followed by HIV knowledge (26%) and education level were contributed 20% each, respectively. CONCLUSION: The results showed that contribution of economic inequalities in utilization of NSPs was primarily explained by the differential effects of HIV risk perception and HIV knowledge among PWID. Reducing HIV risk perception and increasing HIV knowledge might be essential to efforts to eliminate inequalities in access to NSPs among PWID.

Condom Use and its Associated Factors Among Iranian Youth: Results From a Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: Given the young structure of Iran's population and the fact that extramarital sexual relationships are both prohibited by legislation and shunned by society and religion, examining condom use practices among Iranian youth is highly important. The aim of this study was to explore condom use and its correlates among Iranian young adults. METHODS: In a sample of 3,045 individuals aged 19-29 who were recruited from a nation-wide study, we analyzed data from 633 participants who reported a history of extramarital sex. Subjects were asked about their condom use practices during their last penetrative sex. Data were collected through a self-administered questionnaire where the respondents completed the survey on their own and passed it to trained gender-matched interviewers. Multivariable regression models were constructed to report adjusted odds ratios (AOR) along with 95% CI. RESULTS: Of the 633 participants, 222 (35.1%) reported condom use at last sex. Men reported significantly higher condom use than women (38.5% vs. 25.7%). Having a stable job (AOR = 1.86, 95% CI: 1.01, 3.43), higher knowledge of condom use (AOR = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.03, 2.37) and sexual transmission of HIV (AOR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.18, 2.85) were positively associated with condom use at last sex. Conversely, experience of sex under the influence of substances (AOR = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.45, 0.94) was significantly associated with reduced odds of condom use at last sex. CONCLUSION: This study shows that only one out of every three young adults reported using condoms at last sex. While educational programs are helpful, multi-sectoral approaches (eg, individual-, community-, and structural-level interventions) are required to change sexual behaviours towards safe sex practices and reinforce negotiating condom use among youth.

Decomposing economic disparities in risky sexual behaviors among people who inject drugs in Tehran: Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To our knowledge, no previous study has systematically assessed the role of economic status in risky sexual behavior among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Iran. In this study, we used Blinder-Oaxaca (BO) decomposition to explore the contribution of economic status to inequality in unprotected sex among PWID in Tehran and to decompose it into its determinants. METHODS: Behavioral surveys among PWID were conducted in Tehran, the capital city of Iran, from November 2016 to April 2017. We employed a cross-sectional design and snowball sampling methodology. We constructed the asset index (weighted by the first principal component analysis factor) using socioeconomic data and then divided the variable into 3 tertiles. We used the BO method to decompose the economic inequality in unprotected sex. RESULTS: Of the 520 recruited individuals, 20 were missing data for variables used to define their economic status, and were therefore excluded from the analysis. Not having access to harm reduction programs was the largest factor contributing to the economic disparity in unprotected sex, accounting for 5.5 percentage points of the 21.4% discrepancy. Of the unadjusted total economic disparity in unprotected sex, 52% was unexplained by observable characteristics included in the regression model. The difference in the prevalence of unprotected sex between the high-income and low-income groups was 25%. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing needle syringe program coverage and improving human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) knowledge are essential for efforts to eliminate inequalities in HIV risk behaviors among PWID.

Cost-effectiveness of Methadone Maintenance Treatment Centers in Prevention of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection.

BACKGROUND: Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) is one of the greatest social health problems in many communities in the twenty-first century. Methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) could decrease HIV infection among injection drug users (IDU). The main aim of this paper was to determine the cost-effectiveness of the governmental MMT program to prevent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection among IDU. METHODS: This analytical study was performed through a before-after assessment during a one-year period. Using census sampling, 251 IDU referred to the public MMT program of Kerman, Iran, were selected. The expenditures of MMT centers were calculated in the view of government (public sector). The cost-effectiveness was calculated using TreeAge software. FINDINGS: MMT centers averted 86 new cases of HIV infection. The total cost of centers was US$471 per client in the year. The share of IDU from current expenditures was 35% and from capital expenditures was 32%. Also, methadone per capita for each person who injected drug was US$514. Per capita expenditure of HIV drug treatment was estimated US$8535 per year. Incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) was US$2856 per year, which means governmental MMT program is cost-effective according to the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria. CONCLUSION: MMT centers are cost-effective in preventing HIV infection and the access to this program should be facilitated for IDU.