COVID-19 Risk Factors and Mortality Outcomes Among Medicare Patients Receiving Long-term Dialysis.

Importance: There is a need for studies to evaluate the risk factors for COVID-19 and mortality among the entire Medicare long-term dialysis population using Medicare claims data. Objective: To identify risk factors associated with COVID-19 and mortality in Medicare patients undergoing long-term dialysis. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective, claims-based cohort study compared mortality trends of patients receiving long-term dialysis in 2020 with previous years (2013-2019) and fit Cox regression models to identify risk factors for contracting COVID-19 and postdiagnosis mortality. The cohort included the national population of Medicare patients receiving long-term dialysis in 2020, derived from clinical and administrative databases. COVID-19 was identified through Medicare claims sources. Data were analyzed on May 17, 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: The 2 main outcomes were COVID-19 and all-cause mortality. Associations of claims-based risk factors with COVID-19 and mortality were investigated prediagnosis and postdiagnosis. Results: Among a total of 498 169 Medicare patients undergoing dialysis (median [IQR] age, 66 [56-74] years; 215 935 [43.1%] women and 283 227 [56.9%] men), 60 090 (12.1%) had COVID-19, among whom 15 612 patients (26.0%) died. COVID-19 rates were significantly higher among Black (21 787 of 165 830 patients [13.1%]) and Hispanic (13 530 of 86 871 patients [15.6%]) patients compared with non-Black patients (38 303 of 332 339 [11.5%]), as well as patients with short (ie, 1-89 days; 7738 of 55 184 patients [14.0%]) and extended (ie, ≥90 days; 10 737 of 30 196 patients [35.6%]) nursing home stays in the prior year. Adjusting for all other risk factors, residing in a nursing home 1 to 89 days in the prior year was associated with a higher hazard for COVID-19 (hazard ratio [HR] vs 0 days, 1.60; 95% CI 1.56-1.65) and for postdiagnosis mortality (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.25-1.37), as was residing in a nursing home for an extended stay (COVID-19: HR, 4.48; 95% CI, 4.37-4.59; mortality: HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.07-1.16). Black race (HR vs non-Black: HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.23-1.28) and Hispanic ethnicity (HR vs non-Hispanic: HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.64-1.72) were associated with significantly higher hazards of COVID-19. Although home dialysis was associated with lower COVID-19 rates (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.75-0.80), it was associated with higher mortality (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.11-1.25). Conclusions and Relevance: These results shed light on COVID-19 risk factors and outcomes among Medicare patients receiving long-term chronic dialysis and could inform policy decisions to mitigate the significant extra burden of COVID-19 and death in this population.

Acute Kidney Injury Requiring Dialysis and Incident Dialysis Patient Outcomes in US Outpatient Dialysis Facilities.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: About 30% of patients with AKI may require ongoing dialysis in the outpatient setting after hospital discharge. A 2017 Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services policy change allows Medicare beneficiaries with AKI requiring dialysis to receive outpatient treatment in dialysis facilities. Outcomes for these patients have not been reported. We compare patient characteristics and mortality among patients with AKI requiring dialysis and patients without AKI requiring incident dialysis. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: We used a retrospective cohort design with 2017 Medicare claims to follow outpatients with AKI requiring dialysis and patients without AKI requiring incident dialysis up to 365 days. Outcomes are unadjusted and adjusted mortality using Kaplan-Meier estimation for unadjusted survival probability, Poisson regression for monthly mortality, and Cox proportional hazards modeling for adjusted mortality. RESULTS: In total, 10,821 of 401,973 (3%) Medicare patients requiring dialysis had at least one AKI claim, and 52,626 patients were Medicare patients without AKI requiring incident dialysis. Patients with AKI requiring dialysis were more likely to be White (76% versus 70%), non-Hispanic (92% versus 87%), and age 60 or older (82% versus 72%) compared with patients without AKI requiring incident dialysis. Unadjusted mortality was markedly higher for patients with AKI requiring dialysis compared with patients without AKI requiring incident dialysis. Adjusted mortality differences between both cohorts persisted through month 4 of the follow-up period (all P=0.01), then, they declined and were no longer statistically significant. Adjusted monthly mortality stratified by Black and other race between patients with AKI requiring dialysis and patients without AKI requiring incident dialysis was lower throughout month 4 (1.5 versus 0.60, 1.20 versus 0.84, 1.00 versus 0.80, and 0.95 versus 0.74; all P<0.001), which persisted through month 7. Overall adjusted mortality risk was 22% higher for patients with AKI requiring dialysis (1.22; 95% confidence interval, 1.17 to 1.27). CONCLUSIONS: In fully adjusted analyses, patients with AKI requiring dialysis had higher early mortality compared with patients without AKI requiring incident dialysis, but these differences declined after several months. Differences were also observed by age, race, and ethnicity within both patient cohorts.

Risk Adjustment and the Assessment of Disparities in Dialysis Mortality Outcomes.

Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) reported by Medicare compare mortality at individual dialysis facilities with the national average, and are currently adjusted for race. However, whether the adjustment for race obscures or clarifies disparities in quality of care for minority groups is unknown. Cox model-based SMRs were computed with and without adjustment for patient race for 5920 facilities in the United States during 2010. The study population included virtually all patients treated with dialysis during this period. Without race adjustment, facilities with higher proportions of black patients had better survival outcomes; facilities with the highest percentage of black patients (top 10%) had overall mortality rates approximately 7% lower than expected. After adjusting for within-facility racial differences, facilities with higher proportions of black patients had poorer survival outcomes among black and non-black patients; facilities with the highest percentage of black patients (top 10%) had mortality rates approximately 6% worse than expected. In conclusion, accounting for within-facility racial differences in the computation of SMR helps to clarify disparities in quality of health care among patients with ESRD. The adjustment that accommodates within-facility comparisons is key, because it could also clarify relationships between patient characteristics and health care provider outcomes in other settings.

Patient selection and volume in the era surrounding implementation of Medicare conditions of participation for transplant programs.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate evidence of practice changes affecting kidney transplant program volumes, and donor, recipient and candidate selection in the era surrounding the introduction of Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) conditions of participation (CoPs) for organ transplant programs. DATA: Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients; CMS ESRD and Medicare claims databases. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of national registry data. METHODS: A Cox proportional hazards model of 1-year graft survival was used to derive risks associated with deceased-donor kidney transplants performed from 2001 to 2010. FINDINGS: Among programs with ongoing noncompliance with the CoPs, kidney transplant volumes declined by 38 percent (n = 766) from 2006 to 2011, including a 55 percent drop in expanded criteria donor transplants. Volume increased by 6 percent (n = 638) among programs remaining in compliance. Aggregate risk of 1-year graft failure increased over time due to increasing recipient age and obesity, and longer ESRD duration. CONCLUSIONS: Although trends in aggregate risk of 1-year kidney graft loss do not indicate that the introduction of the CoPs has systematically reduced opportunities for marginal candidates or that there has been a systematic shift away from utilization of higher risk deceased donor kidneys, total volume and expanded criteria donor utilization decreased overall among programs with ongoing noncompliance.