[Comparison of aspirin treatment strategies for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases: A decision-analytic Markov modelling study].

OBJECTIVE: To compare the expected population impact of benefit and risk of aspirin treatment strategies for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases recommended by different guidelines in the Chinese Electronic Health Records Research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study. METHODS: A decision-analytic Markov model was used to simulate and compare different strategies of aspirin treatment, including: Strategy ①: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-69 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk, recommended by the 2020 Chinese Guideline on the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases; Strategy ②: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-59 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk, recommended by the 2022 United States Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement on Aspirin Use to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease; Strategy ③: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-69 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk and blood pressure well-controlled (< 150/90 mmHg), recommended by the 2019 Guideline on the Assessment and Management of Cardio-vascular Risk in China. The high 10-year cardiovascular risk was defined as the 10-year predicted risk over 10% based on the 2019 World Health Organization non-laboratory model. The Markov model simulated different strategies for ten years (cycles) with parameters mainly from the CHERRY study or published literature. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and the number needed to treat (NNT) for each ischemic event (including myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke) were calculated to assess the effectiveness of the different strategies. The number needed to harm (NNH) for each bleeding event (including hemorrhagic stroke and gastrointestinal bleeding) was calculated to assess the safety. The NNT for each net benefit (i.e., the difference of the number of ischemic events could be prevented and the number of bleeding events would be added) was also calculated. One-way sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of the incidence rate of cardiovascular diseases and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of hazard ratios of interventions were conducted. RESULTS: A total of 212 153 Chinese adults, were included in this study. The number of people who were recommended for aspirin treatment Strategies ①-③ was 34 235, 2 813, and 25 111, respectively. The Strategy ③ could gain the most QALY of 403 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 222-511] years. Compared with Strategy ①, Strategy ③ had similar efficiency but better safety, with the extra NNT of 4 (95%UI: 3-4) and NNH of 39 (95%UI: 19-132). The NNT per net benefit was 131 (95%UI: 102-239) for Strategy ①, 256 (95%UI: 181-737) for Strategy ②, and 132 (95%UI: 104-232) for Strategy ③, making Strategy ③ the most favorable option with a better QALY and safety, along with similar efficiency in terms of net benefit. The results were consistent in the sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: The aspirin treatment strategies recommended by the updated guidelines on the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases showed a net benefit for high-risk Chinese adults from developed areas. However, to balance effectiveness and safety, aspirin is suggested to be used for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases with consideration for blood pressure control, resulting in better intervention efficiency.

[Effectiveness of statin treatment strategies for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases in a community-based Chinese population: A decision-analytic Markov model].

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of statin treatment strategies based on risk assessment for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases by the Western guidelines in a community-based Chinese population from economically developed areas using data from the Chinese electronic health records research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study. METHODS: A Markov model was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the following statin treatment strategies, including: (1) usual care without cardiovascular risk assessment(Strategy 0); (2) using the World Health Organization (WHO) non-laboratory-based risk charts with statin treatment for high-risk group (risk ≥ 20%) (Strategy 1); (3) using the WHO laboratory-based risk charts with statin treatment for high-risk group (risk ≥ 20%) (Strategy 2); and (4) using the Prediction for Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Risk in China (China-PAR) model with statin treatment for high-risk group (risk ≥ 10%, Strategy 3). According to the guidelines, adults in the medium-risk group received lifestyle intervention, and adults in the high-risk group received life-style intervention and statin treatment under these strategies. The Markov model simulated different strategies for ten years (cycles) using parameters from the CHERRY study, published data, meta-analyses and systematic reviews for Chinese. The number of cardiovascular events or deaths, as well as the number need to treat (NNT) with statin per cardiovascular event or death prevented, were calculated to compare the effectiveness of different strategies. One-way sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of incidence rate of cardiovascular diseases, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of hazard ratios of interventions were conducted. RESULTS: Totally 225 811 Chinese adults aged 40-79 years without cardiovascular diseases at baseline were enrolled. In contrast to the usual care without risk assessment-based statin treatment strategy, Strategy 1 using the WHO non-laboratory-based risk charts could prevent 3 482 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 2 110-4 661] cardiovascular events, Strategy 2 using the WHO laboratory-based risk charts could prevent 3 685 (95%UI: 2 255-4 912) events, and Strategy 3 using the China-PAR model could prevent 3 895 (95%UI: 2 396-5 181) events. NNTs with statin per cardiovascular event prevented were 22 (95%UI: 14-54), 21 (95%UI: 14-52), and 27 (95%UI: 17-67), respectively. Strategy 3 could prevent more cardiovascular events, while Strategies 1 and 2 required fewer numbers need to treat with statin per cardiovascular event prevented. The results were consistent in the sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: The statin treatment strategies based on risk assessment for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases recommended by the Western guidelines could achieve substantive health benefits in adults from developed areas of China. Using the China-PAR model for cardiovascular risk assessment could prevent more cardiovascular diseases while using the WHO risk charts seems more efficient.

[Effectiveness of different screening strategies for type 2 diabete on preventing cardiovascular diseases in a community-based Chinese population using a decision-analytic Markov model].

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of different screening strategies for type 2 diabetes to prevent cardiovascular disease in a community-based Chinese population from economically developed areas based on the Chinese electronic health records research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study. METHODS: A Markov model was used to simulate different systematic diabetes screening strategies, including: (1) screening among Chinese adults aged 40-70 years recommended by the 2020 Chinese Guideline for the prevention and Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes (Strategy 1); (2) screening among Chinese adults aged 35 to 70 years recommended by the 2022 American Diabetes Association Standard of Medical Care in Diabetes (Strategy 2); and (3) screening among Chinese adults aged 35-70 years with overweight or obesity recommended by the 2021 United States Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement on Screening for Prediabetes and Type 2 Diabetes (Strategy 3). According to the guidelines, individuals who were screened positively (fasting plasma glucose ≥ 7.0 mmol/L) would be introduced to intensive glycemic targets management (glycated hemoglobin < 7.0%).The Markov model simulated different screening scenarios for ten years (cycles) with parameters mainly from the CHERRY study or published literature. Number of cardiovascular disease events or deaths could be prevented and number needed to screen (NNS) were calculated to compare the effectiveness of the different strategies. One-way sensitivity analysis on the sensitivity of screening methods and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on uncertainties of diabetes incidence, the sensitivity of screening methods, and intensive glycemic management effects were conducted. RESULTS: Totally 289 245 Chinese adults aged 35-70 years without cardiovascular diseases or diagnosed diabetes at baseline were enrolled. In terms of the number of cardiovascular disease events could be prevented, Strategy 1 for systematic diabetes screening among the adults aged 35-70 years was 222 (95%UI: 180-264), Strategy 2 for systematic diabetes screening among the adults aged 40-70 years was 227 (95%UI: 185-271), and Strategy 3 for systematic diabetes screening among the adults aged 35-70 years with obesity or overweight (body mass index ≥ 24 kg/m2) was 131 (95%UI: 98-164), compared with opportunistic screening. NNS per cardiovascular disease event for the strategies 1, 2 and 3 were 1 184 (95%UI: 994-1 456), 1 274 (95%UI: 1 067-1 564) and 814 (95%UI: 649-1 091), respectively. Compared with Strategy 1, NNS per cardiovascular disease event for Strategy 2 increased by 90 (95%UI: -197-381) with similar effectiveness of cardiovascular prevention; however, NNS per cardiovascular disease event for Strategy 3 was reduced by 460 (95%UI: 185-724) in contrast to the Strategy 2, suggesting that the Strategy 3 was more efficient. The results were consistent in multiple sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: Systematic screening for diabetes based on the latest guidelines in economically developed areas of China can reduce cardiovascular events and deaths. However, merely lowering the starting age of screening from 40 to 35 years seems ineffective for preventing cardiovascular disease, while screening strategy for Chinese adults aged 35-70 years with overweight or obesity is recommended to improve efficiency.

[Application of multi-state Markov model in studying transition of number of chronic complications and influencing factors in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients].

Objective: To establish a multi-state Markov model of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients and explore the transition rule between the cumulative number of different chronic complications, estimate the transition probability and intensity between status, and explore the possible factors affecting the transition between status. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of 33 575 patients with T2DM was conducted. According to the baseline and the cumulative number of chronic complications during the follow-up period, the patients were classified based on five status: T2DM, one complication, two complications, three complications, four and above complication, indicated by S0, S1, S2, S3 and S4, respectively. A time-continuous and state-discrete multi-state irreversible Markov model was used for statistical analysis. Results: The study included 33 575 T2DM patients, and their average age was 60 years old, the median of follow-up length was 8 years. In these patients, 32 653 had no baseline complications. At the end of follow-up, the transition probabilities of S0→S1, S1→S2, S2→S3 and S3→S4 were 16.4%, 32.4%, 45.6% and 25.9%, respectively. The results of multivariate analysis showed that being female (HR=0.919), less than 60 years old (HR=0.929), higher fasting plasma glucose (HR=1.601), lower high-density lipoprotein (HR=1.087), higher total cholesterol (HR=1.090),weekly exercise (HR=0.897), vegetarian diet (HR=0.852) and heavy diet (HR=1.887) were the risk factors for S0 to S1. And being female (HR=0.768), less than 60 years old (HR=0.859) and lower high-density lipoprotein (HR=1.160) were the risk factors for S1 to S2. Conclusions: The probability of multiple complications in T2DM patients increased over time, the transition intensity of S2→S3 was largest, followed by S1→S2. Therefore, we need to conduct both early and long-term indicators monitoring and disease prevention, strengthen the health education to improve patients' daily living habits at early stage of the illness, encourage patients to have moderate exercise and balanced diet, strengthen the monitoring of fasting blood- glucose, cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein levels to prevent the deterioration of the illness.

[Effectiveness of different screening strategies for cardiovascular diseases prevention in a community-based Chinese population: A decision-analytic Markov model].

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential effectiveness of different screening strategies for cardiovascular diseases prevention in a community-based Chinese population from economically developed area of China. METHODS: Totally 202 179 adults aged 40 to 74 years without cardiovascular diseases at baseline (January 1, 2010) were enrolled from the Chinese electronic health records research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study. Three scenarios were considered: the screening strategy based on risk charts recommended by the 2020 Chinese guideline on the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases in Chinese adults aged 40-74 years (Strategy 1); the screening strategy based on the prediction for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk in China (China-PAR) models recommended by the 2019 Guideline on the assessment and management of cardiovascular risk in China in Chinese adults aged 40-74 years (Strategy 2); and the screening strategy based on the China-PAR models in Chinese adults aged 50-74 years (Strategy 3). According to the guidelines, individuals who were classified into medium- or high-risk groups after cardiovascular risk assessment by the corresponding strategies would be introduced to lifestyle intervention, while high-risk population would take medication in addition. Markov model was used to simulate different screening scenarios for 10 years (cycles), using parameters mainly from the CHERRY study, as well as published data, Meta-analyses and systematic reviews for Chinese populations. The life year gained, quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, number of cardiovascular disease events/deaths could be prevented and number needed to be screened (NNS) were calculated to compare the effectiveness between the different strategies. One-way sensitivity analysis on uncertainty of cardiovascular disease incidence rate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on uncertainty of distributions for the hazard ratios were conducted. RESULTS: Compared with non-screening strategy, QALYs gained were 1 433 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 969-1 831], 1 401 (95%UI: 936-1 807), and 716 (95%UI: 265-1 111) for the Strategies 1, 2, and 3; and the NNS per QALY in the above strategies were 141 (95%UI: 110-209), 144 (95%UI: 112-216), and 198 (95%UI: 127-529), respectively. The Strategies 1 and 2 based on different guidelines showed similar effectiveness, while more benefits were found for screening using China-PAR models in adults aged 40-74 years than those aged 50-74 years. The results were consistent in the sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: Screening for cardiovascular diseases in Chinese adults aged above 40 years seems effective in coastal developed areas of China, and the different screening strategies based on risk charts by the 2020 Chinese guideline on the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases or China-PAR models by the 2019 Guideline on the assessment and management of cardiovascular risk in China may have similar effectiveness.

[Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 monitoring cases in Yinzhou district based on health big data platform].

Objective: To understand the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 monitoring cases in Yinzhou district based on health big data platform to provide evidence for the construction of COVID-19 monitoring system. Methods: Data on Yinzhou COVID-19 daily surveillance were collected. Information on patients' population classification, epidemiological history, COVID-19 nucleic acid detection rate, positive detection rate and confirmed cases monitoring detection rate were analyzed. Results: Among the 1 595 COVID-19 monitoring cases, 79.94% were community population and 20.06% were key population. The verification rate of monitoring cases was 100.00%. The total percentage of epidemiological history related to Wuhan city or Hubei province was 6.27% in total, and was 2.12% in community population and 22.81% in key population (P<0.001). The total COVID-19 nucleic acid detection rate was 18.24% (291/1 595), and 53.00% in those with epidemiological history and 15.92% in those without (P<0.001).The total positive detection rate was 1.72% (5/291) and the confirmed cases monitoring detection rate was 0.31% (5/1 595). The time interval from the first visit to the first nucleic acid detection of the confirmed monitoring cases and other confirmed cases was statistically insignificant (P>0.05). Conclusions: The monitoring system of COVID-19 based on the health big data platform was working well but the confirmed cases monitoring detection rate need to be improved.

Association of genetic ancestry with striatal dopamine D2/D3 receptor availability.

Despite ethnic differences in allele frequencies of variants in dopaminergic genes associated with dopamine D2/D3 receptor availability (D2R), no study to date has investigated the relationship between genetic ancestry and striatal D2R. Here, we show that ancestry-informative markers significantly predict dorsal striatal D2R in 117 healthy ethnically diverse residents of the New York metropolitan area using Positron Emission Tomography (PET) with [11C]raclopride (P<0.0001), while correcting for age, sex, BMI, education, smoking status, and estimated socioeconomic status (ZIP codes). Effects of ethnicity on D2R were not driven by variation in dopaminergic candidate genes. Instead, candidate gene associations with striatal D2R were diminished when correcting for ancestry. These findings imply that future studies investigating D2 receptor genes should covary for genetic ancestry or study homogeneous populations. Moreover, ancestry studies on human neurobiology should control for socioeconomic differences between ethnic groups.

The assessment of the ulnar nerve at the elbow by ultrasonography in children.

We evaluated the morphological changes to the ulnar nerve of both elbows in the cubital tunnel by sonography in a total of 237 children, of whom 117 were aged between six and seven years, 66 between eight and nine years, and 54 between ten and 11 years. We first scanned longitudinally in the extended elbow and then transversely at the medial epicondyle with the elbow extended to 0 degrees . We repeated the scans with the elbow flexed at 45 degrees , 90 degrees , and 120 degrees . There were no significant differences in the area of the ulnar nerve, but the diameter increased as the elbow moved from extension to flexion in all groups. More importantly, the ulnar nerve was subluxated anteriorly on to the medial epicondyle by 1.5% to 1.9% in extended elbows, by 5.9% to 7.9% in those flexed to 45 degrees , by 40.0% to 44% in those flexed to 90 degrees , and by 57.4% to 58.1% in those flexed to 120 degrees , depending on the age group. Sonography clearly and accurately showed the ulnar nerve and was useful for localising the nerve before placing a medial pin. Because the ulnar nerve may translate anteriorly onto the medial epicondyle when the elbow is flexed to 90 degrees or more, it should never be overlooked during percutaneous medial pinning.

Isolation of a novel strain of Aeromonas media producing high levels of DOPA-melanin and assessment of the photoprotective role of the melanin in bioinsecticide applications.

AIMS: To isolate a bacterium that produces high yield of melanin and to examine the effect of this bacterial pigment on the efficacy of a bioinsecticide. METHODS AND RESULTS: A novel melanin-producing bacterium, designated as strain WS, was isolated from the East Lake, Wuhan, China. Taxonomic studies of this strain indicate that it belongs to Aeromonas media. Physicochemical analysis of the pigment produced by strain WS (melanin WS) suggests that it is the authentic 3,4-dihydroxyphenylalanine (DOPA)-melanin. This melanin and that produced by Pseudomonas maltophilia P28 (melanin P28) share many biophysical properties, but the yield of the melanin WS is significantly higher than that of the melanin P28. In addition, the melanin WS appears to be more effective in the protection of a bioinsecticide against ultraviolet (UV) or solar radiation. At the concentration of 10 ppm, the melanin P28 exhibited no photoprotective effect on the bioinsecticide against UV radiation; in contrast, 5 ppm of melanin WS displayed an obvious protective effect. Similarly, the melanin WS displayed more protective effect on the bioinsecticide against solar radiation than the melanin P28 did over a 4-day period, with the effect being more dramatic for the last 2 days. CONCLUSIONS: We have isolated a novel bacterial strain of A. media that produces high levels of melanin. The melanin produced by this strain offers effective photoprotection of a commercial bioinsecticide BTI against UV and solar radiation. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: Our study suggests that the melanin produced by our newly isolated A. media strain has the potential to be used as a general photoprotective agent for bioinsecticides.

Origins and divergence of the Roma (gypsies).

The identification of a growing number of novel Mendelian disorders and private mutations in the Roma (Gypsies) points to their unique genetic heritage. Linguistic evidence suggests that they are of diverse Indian origins. Their social structure within Europe resembles that of the jatis of India, where the endogamous group, often defined by profession, is the primary unit. Genetic studies have reported dramatic differences in the frequencies of mutations and neutral polymorphisms in different Romani populations. However, these studies have not resolved ambiguities regarding the origins and relatedness of Romani populations. In this study, we examine the genetic structure of 14 well-defined Romani populations. Y-chromosome and mtDNA markers of different mutability were analyzed in a total of 275 individuals. Asian Y-chromosome haplogroup VI-68, defined by a mutation at the M82 locus, was present in all 14 populations and accounted for 44.8% of Romani Y chromosomes. Asian mtDNA-haplogroup M was also identified in all Romani populations and accounted for 26.5% of female lineages in the sample. Limited diversity within these two haplogroups, measured by the variation at eight short-tandem-repeat loci for the Y chromosome, and sequencing of the HVS1 for the mtDNA are consistent with a small group of founders splitting from a single ethnic population in the Indian subcontinent. Principal-components analysis and analysis of molecular variance indicate that genetic structure in extant endogamous Romani populations has been shaped by genetic drift and differential admixture and correlates with the migrational history of the Roma in Europe. By contrast, social organization and professional group divisions appear to be the product of a more recent restitution of the caste system of India.

[The development of GS-I type contraception flower].

PIP: The development and short-term clinical tests of a new type of IUD made of silicone rubber are reported. The structure of the IUD is appropriate and the excellency of in vivo stability and aging-resistant property of silicone rubber make it contraceptively effective. All this lowers the side effects (especially menorrhagia, soreness, and other uncomfortable feelings; and makes it suitable for longterm use. The materials used to produce this flower are domestically available. The technology and equipment involved are simple, and the production can easily be popularized. (author's modified)^ieng