Scenario analysis of phosphorus flow in food production and consumption system in the Mwanza region, Tanzania.

Since the mineral, phosphorus (P), has dual properties of being limited resources for use, and being a pollutant for studying sustainable management of anthropogenic P flows in wetlands and soils, currently P receives the highest interests among researchers around the world. This study has successfully mapped P flows for a reference year (2017) and a future year (2030) using different scenarios of food production and consumption system (hereafter 'system') in the Mwanza region (Tanzania). The results showed that the total P input and output for 2017 alone were 9770 t and 7989 t, respectively. However, as high as 1781 tP accumulated in the system and the potentially recyclable P found, is yet to be recovered due to economic reasons and the lack of market. The main anthropogenic P input to the system occurred via imported feed, fertilizer, and crop food, accounting for about 99.72 % of the total input flow. The output was comprised of animal products exported with 3428 tP, and various P-contained wastes which were lost to water bodies with 4561tP. Analysis of the 2030 scenario showed that setting P management objectives from different perspectives such as the total P budget balance, potential recyclable P, and P emission, can help develop differentially preferred management strategies and measures in the Mwanza region. The combination of diet change, precision feeding, and integrated waste management practices presents the best prospects for decreasing P budget and losses, and the amount of P that can be potentially recovered from the system. We propose a package of integrated P management measures for the Mwanza region. Given the similarity of regional socio-economic development background around the Lake Victoria basin, the model can be used to guide the study of anthropogenic P flow analysis in other areas along the shore of Lake Victoria (Africa).

Assessment of urban river water pollution with urbanization in East Africa.

Anthropogenic pollution plays an important part in deteriorating the water quality of rivers all over the world, especially in urban areas of Africa where water quality monitoring is still seriously constrained by the limited test facility and capability. In this study, for evaluating the impact of urbanization on the river water quality, we investigated four typical urban rivers of Tanzania through the upper-urban-down gradient assessment approach and analyzed by water quality index (WQI) and statistical methods. The physicochemical indices monitored in these rivers revealed that the contents of those indicators of TN, TP, PO43-, NH4+, CODMn, and NO3- were accumulated significantly in the lower reaches of the cities, which indicated the life-type pollution characteristics in such urban rivers of Africa. The following main conclusions are achieved from this study. The water quality of 30% of the investigated river sections is in the medium to good status based on the subjective WQI with sensory factors included. Moreover, the sections with obvious water quality decline are mainly limited to the river segments within the urban central area, and severe pollution of water bodies is closely related to large cities, indicating an increasing pollution tendency with the quickly growing population. Therefore, to help formulate water pollution control policies in response to the rapid urban expansion in African countries, it is necessary to adopt an economical and feasible method to carry out early monitoring of surface water quality timely.

Characterizing the anthropogenic-induced trace elements in an urban aquatic environment: A source apportionment and risk assessment with uncertainty consideration.

The spatial distribution of water quality status, especially in water bodies near intensively urbanized areas, is tightly associated with patterns of human activities. For establishing a robust assessment of the sediment quality in an urban aquatic environment, the source apportionment and risk assessment of Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Hg, and Pb in sediments from an anthropogenic-influenced lake were carried out with considering uncertainties from the analysis methods, random errors in the sample population and the spatial sediment heterogeneity. The distribution analysis of the trace metals with inverse distance weighting-determined method showed that the pollutants were concentrated in the middle and southern areas of the lake. According to the self-organizing map and constrained positive matrix factorization receptor model, agricultural sources (24.8%), industrial and vehicular sources (42.5%), and geogenic natural sources (32.7%) were the primary contributors to the given metals. The geogenic natural had the largest random errors, but the overall result was reliable according to the uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, the stochastic contamination and ecological risk models identified a moderate/considerable contamination level and a moderate ecological risk to the urban aquatic ecosystem. With consideration of uncertainties from the spatial heterogeneity, the contamination level of Hg, and the ecological risk of Cd in had a 20-30% probability of the increase.