Economic evaluation of varicella vaccination strategies in Jiangsu province, China: a decision-tree Markov model.

This study evaluated different varicella vaccination strategies in Jiangsu province, China. A decision-tree Markov model was used to evaluate the cost effectiveness of various varicella vaccination strategies for children, including direct and selective vaccination (serotesting pre-vaccination). A cohort of one-year-old children was followed through 60 one-year Markov cycles. The parameter estimation was based on field work, the literature, and statistical yearbooks. We calculated the incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) using the saved quality-adjusted life year (QALY). One-way and probability sensitivity analyses were performed to assess uncertainty. Among 100,000 cohort members, one-dose and two-dose direct vaccination averted 8061 and 10,701 varicella cases, respectively, compared with no vaccination. Furthermore, compared with no vaccination, one-dose and two-dose direct vaccination saved one QALY at the ICUR of USD 21,401.33 and USD 35,420.81, respectively, at less than three times the per capita gross domestic product (USD 47,626.86) of Jiangsu. The ICURs of the one-dose and two-dose selective strategies versus no vaccination were USD 42,623.62 and USD 51,406.35 per QALY gained, respectively. The cost effectiveness results were most sensitive to the QALY loss of outpatients and vaccine prices. Thus, in Jiangsu, one-dose and two-dose direct varicella vaccination in children could be cost effective at the willingness to pay threshold of three times provincial GDP per capita from a societal perspective. The findings were sensitive to the vaccine price and health utility of varicella cases.

Cost-Effectiveness of Public Health Measures to Control COVID-19 in China: A Microsimulation Modeling Study.

This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of various public health measures in dealing with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. A stochastic agent-based model was used to simulate the progress of the COVID-19 outbreak in scenario I (imported one case) and scenario II (imported four cases) with a series of public health measures. The main outcomes included the avoided infections and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess uncertainty. The results indicated that isolation-and-quarantine averted the COVID-19 outbreak at the lowest ICERs. The joint strategy of personal protection and isolation-and-quarantine averted one more case than only isolation-and-quarantine with additional costs. The effectiveness of isolation-and-quarantine decreased with lowering quarantine probability and increasing delay time. The strategy that included community containment would be cost-effective when the number of imported cases was >65, or the delay time of the quarantine was more than 5 days, or the quarantine probability was below 25%, based on current assumptions. In conclusion, isolation-and-quarantine was the most cost-effective intervention. However, personal protection combined with isolation-and-quarantine was the optimal strategy for averting more cases. The community containment could be more cost-effective as the efficiency of isolation-and-quarantine drops and the imported cases increases.

Seroprevalence of H7N9 infection among humans: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

In spring 2013, a novel avian-origin influenza A (H7N9) virus emerged in mainland China. The burden of H7N9 infection was estimated based on systematic review and meta-analysis. The systematic search for available literature was conducted using Chinese and English databases. We calculated the pooled seroprevalence of H7N9 infection and its 95% confidence interval by using Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation. Out of 16 890 records found using Chinese and English databases, 54 articles were included in the meta-analysis. These included studies of a total of 64 107 individuals. The pooled seroprevalence of H7N9 infection among humans was 0.122% (95% CI: 0.023, 0.275). In high-risk populations, the highest pooled seroprevalence was observed among close contacts (1.075%, 95% CI: 0.000, 4.357). The seroprevalence among general population was (0.077%, 95% CI: 0.011, 0.180). Our study discovered that asymptomatic infection of H7N9 virus did occur, even if the seroprevalence among humans was low.