Carbon peaking prediction scenarios based on different neural network models: A case study of Guizhou Province.

Global warming, caused by greenhouse gas emissions, is a major challenge for all human societies. To ensure that ambitious carbon neutrality and sustainable economic development goals are met, regional human activities and their impacts on carbon emissions must be studied. Guizhou Province is a typical karst area in China that predominantly uses fossil fuels. In this study, a backpropagation (BP) neural network and extreme learning machine (ELM) model, which is advantageous due to its nonlinear processing, were used to predict carbon emissions from 2020 to 2040 in Guizhou Province. The carbon emissions were calculated using conversion and inventory compilation methods with energy consumption data and the results showed an "S" growth trend. Twelve influencing factors were selected, however, five with larger correlations were screened out using a grey correlation analysis method. A prediction model for carbon emissions from Guizhou Province was established. The prediction performance of a whale optimization algorithm (WOA)-ELM model was found to be higher than the BP neural network and ELM models. Baseline, high-speed, and low-carbon scenarios were analyzed and the size and time of peak carbon emissions in Liaoning Province from 2020 to 2040 were predicted using the WOA-ELM model.

High-throughput analytical methodology of monoalkyl phthalate esters and the composite risk assessment with their parent phthalate esters in aquatic organisms and seawater.

A sensitive, robust, and highly efficient analytical methodology involving solid phase extraction coupled to ultra-high performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry was successfully established to detect 13 monoalkyl phthalate esters (MPAEs) in aquatic organisms and seawater. After the organisms were preprocessed using enzymatic deconjugation with ß-glucuronidase, extraction, purification, and qualitative and quantitative optimization procedures were performed. Under optimal conditions, the limits of detection varied from 0.07 to 0.88 µg/kg (wet weight) and 0.04-1.96 ng/L in organisms and seawater, respectively. Collectively, MPAEs achieved acceptable recovery values (91.0-102.7%) with relative standard deviations less than 10.4% and matrix effects ranging from 0.93 to 1.07 in the above matrix. Furthermore, MPAEs and phthalate esters were detected by the developed methodology and gas chromatography-triple quadrupole tandem mass spectrometer in practical samples, respectively. Mono-n-butyl phthalate and mono-iso-butyl phthalate were the most predominant congeners, accounting for 24.8-35.2% in aquatic organisms and seawater. Comprehensive health and ecological risks were higher after the MPAEs were incorporated than when phthalate esters were considered separately, and greater than their risk threshold. Therefore, the risks caused by substances and their metabolites in multiple media, with analogous structure-activity relationships, should be considered to ensure the safety of aquatic organisms and consumers.

Estimating the response and economic burden of rheumatoid arthritis patients treated with biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs in Taiwan using the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD).

BACKGROUND: Previous studies in Taiwan utilizing the Taiwan's National Health Insurance Database (NHIRD) have estimated the direct healthcare costs of RA patients, but they have not focused on patients on bDMARDs, or considered patients' response to therapy. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to estimate the rate of inadequate response for patients newly treated with biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) as well as their costs and resource use. METHODS: Data were from the catastrophic illness file within the NHIRD from 1/1/2009 to 12/31/2013. Patients with RA, which was categorized by the presence of a catastrophic illness card, that were previously bDMARD-naïve, were included in this study if they initiated their first bDMARD during the index period. The index period included all of 2010, a pre-index period consisting of the index date- 365 days, and a follow-up period including the index date to 365 days post-index, were also included. Previously biologically-naïve patients were indexed into the study on the date of their first claim for a bDMARD. A validated algorithm was used to examine the rate of inadequate response (IR) in the biologically-naïve cohort of patients. Inadequate responders met one or more of the following criteria during their year of follow-up: low adherence (proportion of days covered <0.80); switched to or added a second bDMARD; added a new conventional synthetic DMARD (csDMARD); received ≥1 glucocorticoid injection; or increased oral glucocorticoid dosing. All-cause mean annual direct costs and resource use were measured in the year of follow-up. Costs were converted from NT$ to USD using 1 NT$ = 0.033 USD. RESULTS: A total of 818 patients with RA initiated their first bDMARD (54% etanercept and 46% adalimumab) in 2010. After one year of follow-up, 32% (n = 258) were classified as stable, 66% (n = 540) had an IR, and 2% (n = 20) were lost to follow-up. During the follow-up period mean annual total direct costs were $16,136 for stable patients compared to $14,154 for patients with IR. Mean annual non-medication direct costs were $937 for stable patients and $1,574 for patients with IR. Mean annual hospitalizations were higher for patients with IR (0.46) compared to stable patients (0.10) during the one year follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of patients that were previously naïve to bDMARDs had an IR to their first bDMARD during the year of follow-up. Patients with an IR had numerically increased all-cause resource utilization and non-medication costs during the follow-up period compared to patients with stable disease. This level of IR suggests an unmet need in the RA treatment paradigm.

The cost-effectiveness of a NSCLC patient assistance program for pemetrexed maintenance therapy in People's Republic of China.

BACKGROUND: Eli Lilly and the China Primary Health Care Foundation are currently implementing a patient assistance program (PAP) in China, which allows first-line nonsquamous non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients who complete four cycles of pemetrexed induction therapy to receive free, continuous pemetrexed maintenance therapy. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of pemetrexed maintenance therapy vs basic standard care (BSC) and the economic impacts of providing a PAP for pemetrexed maintenance therapy to NSCLC patients who have completed pemetrexed induction therapy in a Chinese health care setting. METHODS: We developed a novel decision-analytic model to evaluate the long-term costs and clinical efficacy of pemetrexed plus BSC vs BSC alone. We utilized a three-state (progression-free survival, progressed disease, and dead) partition survival model for both the clinical and economic aspects of the analysis. Cost and health utility estimates were derived from the literature. We performed a scenario analysis to estimate the real-world impact of introducing the PAP in China by comparing the use of the PAP vs non-PAP. Model uncertainty was evaluated using one-way and multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Compared to BSC, pemetrexed plus BSC resulted in a gain of 0.22 years of life (95% credible range [CR]: 0.04-0.46) and 0.13 quality-adjusted life years (95% CR: 0.04-0.26) per patient, at an increased cost of $28,105 (95% CR: -$22,720 to $48,646) without a PAP and $3,068 (95% CR: -$1,263 to $9,163) with a PAP. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for pemetrexed plus BSC vs BSC alone was cost-prohibitive at $222,700 for non-PAP, but cost-effective at $24,319 with a PAP. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that maintenance pemetrexed therapy following pemetrexed induction for patients with advanced NSCLC is likely to be highly non-cost-effective in the absence of a PAP, but the pending implementation of the PAP promises to make it cost-effective, with a >90% probability of cost-effectiveness at a Chinese willingness-to-pay threshold per quality-adjusted life year.

An Efficient and Facile Method for the Synthesis of Benzimidazoisoquinoline Derivatives via a Multicomponent Reaction.

Two series of benzimidazoisoquinoline and fused benzimidazoisoquinoline-benzimidazole derivatives have been synthesized using an efficient one-pot procedure. This process involves an intramolecular nucleophilic substitution reaction and provides facile access to two series of complexes and potentially interesting biologically active scaffolds.

A Comprehensive Assessment of the Value of Laboratory Indices in Diagnosing Kawasaki Disease.

OBJECTIVE: Kawasaki disease (KD) is the primary cause of heart disease among children, but because its clinical symptoms are nonspecific, it is difficult to diagnose. The purpose of this study was to evaluate laboratory indices for possible use in the early diagnosis of KD and to determine which indices are predictive of a response to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) and can be used to monitor the effects of treatment. METHODS: Three hundred thirty KD patients, 330 age-matched children with KD-like febrile disease, and 330 age-matched healthy children (controls) were enrolled in this prospective study. Levels of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), and cytokines were determined in all study subjects. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, 181 patients in the KD group were compared with 181 patients in the KD-like febrile group. The following indices were found to be useful in the diagnosis of KD: NT-proBNP (area under the curve [AUC] 0.923), ESR (AUC 0.909), CRP (AUC 0.834), and interleukin-6 (IL-6; AUC 0.678). The diagnostic efficiency of each index demonstrated in the derivation cohort was repeated in the 149 KD patients in the validation cohort. There were significant differences in NT-proBNP levels between IVIG-responsive KD patients (n = 270) and IVIG-nonresponsive KD patients (n = 60), with higher NT-proBNP levels in IVIG-nonresponsive KD patients. The NT-proBNP level can effectively distinguish IVIG-responsive KD patients from IVIG-nonresponsive patients, and its AUC was 0.73. There were also significant differences in the NT-proBNP levels before and after treatment, with a significant decline after treatment. CONCLUSION: Serum levels of NT-proBNP can be used in the diagnosis of KD, the prediction of a patient's sensitivity to IVIG treatment, and the monitoring of the effects of IVIG treatment, but more attention must be paid to the scope of its application.

Nonhuman primate models in translational regenerative medicine.

Humans and nonhuman primates (NHPs) are similar in size, behavior, physiology, biochemistry, structure and function of organs, and complexity of the immune system. Research on NHPs generates complementary data that bridge translational research from small animal models to humans. NHP models of human disease offer unique opportunities to develop stem cell-based therapeutic interventions that directly address relevant and challenging translational aspects of cell transplantation therapy. These include the use of autologous induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cellular products, issues related to the immune response in autologous and allogeneic setting, pros and cons of delivery techniques in a clinical setting, as well as the safety and efficacy of candidate cell lines. The NHP model allows the assessment of complex physiological, biochemical, behavioral, and imaging end points, with direct relevance to human conditions. At the same time, the value of using primates in scientific research must be carefully evaluated and timed due to expense and the necessity for specialized equipment and highly trained personnel. Often it is more efficient and useful to perform initial proof-of-concept studies for new therapeutics in rodents and/or other species before the pivotal studies in NHPs that may eventually lead to first-in-human trials. In this report, we present how the Southwest National Primate Research Center, one of seven NIH-funded National Primate Research Centers, may help the global community in translating promising technologies to the clinical arena.

Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of the 7-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in Shanghai, China.

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to analyze the economic benefits of introducing the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) into the City Immunity Program in Shanghai. METHODS: A decision-analytic model designed for pneumococcal disease and outcomes of pneumococcal infection was populated with local, age-specific incidence and cost data to estimate the expected economic benefits from vaccinating a birth cohort of 172,183 infants in Shanghai over a 1-year period using a cross-sectional approach. The analysis was assumed to occur in a year at which time the direct and indirect effects of vaccination have reached a steady state. Costs were calculated from a payer perspective and included vaccination program costs and direct medical expenditures from pneumococcal-related disease. RESULTS: The model predicts that 112,629 cases of pneumococcal-related disease could be prevented during a given year following the introduction of the PCV7 vaccine into the City Immunity Program in Shanghai, leading to a reduction of ¥187,923,359 (US $29,067,790) in direct medical costs. Overall, the inclusion of the PCV7 vaccine is estimated to have a cost-per-life-year saved of ¥37,468 (US $5,796) and a cost-per-quality-adjusted-life-year gained of ¥41,603 (US $6,435) when both the direct and indirect effects of the vaccine resulting from herd protection are taken into account. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that including PCV7 into the City Immunity Program in Shanghai could be considered cost-effective under generally accepted willingness-to-pay thresholds when both the direct and indirect effects of the vaccine are considered in the analysis.

Assessment of usnic acid toxicity in rat primary hepatocytes using ¹³C isotopomer distribution analysis of lactate, glutamate and glucose.

The lichen metabolite usnic acid (UA) has been promoted as a dietary supplement for weight loss, although cases of hepatotoxicity have been reported. Here we evaluated UA-associated hepatotoxicity in vitro using isolated rat hepatocytes. We measured cell viability and ATP content to evaluate UA induced cytotoxicity and applied (13)C isotopomer distribution measuring techniques to gain a better understanding of glucose metabolism during cytotoxicity. The cells were exposed to 0, 1, 5 or 10 µM UA concentrations for 2, 6 or 24h. Aliquots of media were collected at the end of these time periods and the (13)C mass isotopomer distribution determined for CO(2), lactate, glucose and glutamate. The 1 µM UA exposure did not appear to cause significant change in cell viability compared to controls. However, the 5 and 10 µM UA concentrations significantly reduced cell viability as exposure time increased. Similar results were obtained for ATP depletion experiments. The 1 and 5 µM UA doses suggest increased oxidative phosphorylation. Conversely, oxidative phosphorylation and gluconeogenesis were dramatically inhibited by 10 µM UA. Augmented oxidative phosphorylation at the lower UA concentrations may be an adaptive response by the cells to compensate for diminished mitochondrial function.

Reconstructing atomistic detail for coarse-grained models with resolution exchange.

Coarse-grained (CG) modeling has emerged as a promising tool to bridge the gap between the temporal and spatial scales of all-atom (AA) simulations and those of many important biological processes. Resolution exchange, a variant of the replica exchange method, combines the efficiency of CG simulation and the accuracy of AA simulation by swapping configurations between AA and CG simulations. The crucial step in a resolution exchange move is to rigorously reconstruct the high-resolution system from models at coarser resolutions. In this paper, configurational-bias Monte Carlo is adopted as a general method to rebuild the missing degrees of freedom rigorously for CG models and for the first time combined with resolution exchange. The new approach is demonstrated on an alkane and a peptide system. It is found that the efficiency of resolution exchange depends significantly on the quality of the CG model.

Thermodynamically irreversible gating of ryanodine receptors in situ revealed by stereotyped duration of release in Ca(2+) sparks.

For a single or a group of Markov channels gating reversibly, distributions of open and closed times should be the sum of positively weighted decaying exponentials. Violation of this microscopic reversibility has been demonstrated previously on a number of occasions at the single channel level, and has been attributed to possible channel coupling to external sources of free energy. Here we show that distribution of durations of Ca(2+) release underlying Ca(2+) sparks in intact cardiac myocytes exhibits a prominent mode at approximately 8 ms. Analysis of the cycle time for repetitive sparks at hyperactive sites revealed no intervals briefer than approximately 35 ms and a mode at approximately 90 ms. These results indicate that, regardless of whether Ca(2+) sparks are single-channel or multi-channel in origin, they are generated by thermodynamically irreversible stochastic processes. In contrast, data from planar lipid bilayer experiments were consistent with reversible gating of RyR under asymmetric cis (4 microM) and trans Ca(2+) (10 mM), suggesting that the irreversibility for Ca(2+) spark genesis may reside at a supramolecular level. Modeling suggests that Ca(2+)-induced Ca(2+) release among adjacent RyRs may couple the external energy derived from Ca(2+) gradients across the SR to RyR gating in situ, and drive the irreversible generation of Ca(2+) sparks.