Quick sequential organ failure assessment score combined with other sepsis-related risk factors to predict in-hospital mortality: Post-hoc analysis of prospective multicenter study data.

This study aimed to assess the value of quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) combined with other risk factors in predicting in-hospital mortality in patients presenting to the emergency department with suspected infection. This post-hoc analysis of a prospective multicenter study dataset included 34 emergency departments across Japan (December 2017 to February 2018). We included adult patients (age ≥16 years) who presented to the emergency department with suspected infection. qSOFA was calculated and recorded by senior emergency physicians when they suspected an infection. Different types of sepsis-related risk factors (demographic, functional, and laboratory values) were chosen from prior studies. A logistic regression model was used to assess the predictive value of qSOFA for in-hospital mortality in models based on the following combination of predictors: 1) qSOFA-Only; 2) qSOFA+Age; 3) qSOFA+Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS); 4) qSOFA+Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI); 5) qSOFA+lactate levels; 6) qSOFA+Age+CCI+CFS+lactate levels. We calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and other key clinical statistics at Youden's index, where the sum of sensitivity and specificity is maximized. Following prior literature, an AUC >0.9 was deemed to indicate high accuracy; 0.7-0.9, moderate accuracy; 0.5-0.7, low accuracy; and 0.5, a chance result. Of the 951 patients included in the analysis, 151 (15.9%) died during hospitalization. The AUC for predicting in-hospital mortality was 0.627 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.580-0.673) for the qSOFA-Only model. Addition of other variables only marginally improved the model's AUC; the model that included all potentially relevant variables yielded an AUC of only 0.730 (95% CI: 0.687-0.774). Other key statistic values were similar among all models, with sensitivity and specificity of 0.55-0.65 and 0.60-0.75, respectively. In this post-hoc data analysis from a prospective multicenter study based in Japan, combining qSOFA with other sepsis-related risk factors only marginally improved the model's predictive value.

Quick sequential organ failure assessment versus systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria for emergency department patients with suspected infection.

Previous studies have shown inconsistent prognostic accuracy for mortality with both quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) and the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria. We aimed to validate the accuracy of qSOFA and the SIRS criteria for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected infection in the emergency department. A prospective study was conducted including participants with suspected infection who were hospitalised or died in 34 emergency departments in Japan. Prognostic accuracy of qSOFA and SIRS criteria for in-hospital mortality was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. Of the 1060 participants, 402 (37.9%) and 915 (86.3%) had qSOFA ≥ 2 and SIRS criteria ≥ 2 (given thresholds), respectively, and there were 157 (14.8%) in-hospital deaths. Greater accuracy for in-hospital mortality was shown with qSOFA than with the SIRS criteria (AUROC: 0.64 versus 0.52, difference + 0.13, 95% CI [+ 0.07, + 0.18]). Sensitivity and specificity for predicting in-hospital mortality at the given thresholds were 0.55 and 0.65 based on qSOFA and 0.88 and 0.14 based on SIRS criteria, respectively. To predict in-hospital mortality in patients visiting to the emergency department with suspected infection, qSOFA was demonstrated to be modestly more accurate than the SIRS criteria albeit insufficiently sensitive.Clinical Trial Registration: The study was pre-registered in the University Hospital Medical Information Network Clinical Trials Registry (UMIN000027258).

Assessment of the severity of organophosphate (fenitrothion) poisoning based on its serum concentration and clinical parameters.

BACKGROUND: Fenitrothion (MEP) is the most frequent cause of organophosphate pesticides (OP) poisoning in Japan, but clinical parameters to predict its severity remain uncertain. METHOD: We evaluated 26 cases (12 males and 14 females) of MEP poisoning brought to our critical care center. Regarding acute lung injury (ALI) as a hallmark complication leading to poor recovery, we divided patients into two groups: cases without ALI (Grp1, n = 14), and cases who developed ALI (Grp2, n = 12) at various points after the poisoning. Serial changes in clinical parameters and laboratory test results were compared between them. RESULTS: The median MEP concentrations on arrival (min~max) for Grp1 and Grp2 were 2.3 (0.5-5.1) and 4.6 (1.1-14.0) µg/ml, respectively. Serum pseudo-cholinesterase (PChE) levels on arrival were 21(< 10-59) U/L in Grp1 and < 10 in Grp2. Based on individual patient kinetics, we estimated MEP concentration at 2 and 24 hours after ingestion, and determined cutoff values for differentiating the two groups for each time point as 4.0 µg/ml and 0.5 µg/ml, respectively. By logistic regression analysis, two groups were distinguished with accuracy of 92.3% based on their time of arrival after ingestion and initial MEP concentration. Clinical parameters associated with ALI were days with miosis, days with PChE below 100 U/L, and days requiring administration of atropine. CONCLUSION: The severity of MEP poisoning is closely associated with both time to presentation after ingestion and initial MEP concentration. Serial monitoring of MEP concentrations in the first 24 hours is also useful in predicting the clinical course.