Modeling Social Distancing Strategies to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Spread in Israel: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: While highly effective in preventing SARS-CoV-2 spread, national lockdowns come with an enormous economic price. Few countries have adopted an alternative "testing, tracing, and isolation" approach to selectively isolate people at high exposure risk, thereby minimizing the economic impact. To assist policy makers, we performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of these 2 strategies. METHODS: A modified Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered, and Deceased (SEIRD) model was employed to assess the situation in Israel, a small country with ∼9 million people. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of these strategies as well as the expected number of infected individuals and deaths were calculated. RESULTS: A nationwide lockdown is expected to save, on average, 274 (median 124, interquartile range: 71-221) lives compared to the "testing, tracing, and isolation" approach. However, the ICER will be, on average, $45 104 156 (median $49.6 million, interquartile range: 22.7-220.1) to prevent 1 case of death. CONCLUSION: A national lockdown has a moderate advantage in saving lives with tremendous costs and possible overwhelming economic effects. These findings should assist decision makers dealing with additional waves of this pandemic.

Abnormal liver tests in patients with SARS-CoV-2 or influenza - prognostic similarities and temporal disparities.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Abnormal liver tests are common in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, but a possible direct role of the virus in liver injury and its association with short-term outcomes are controversial. Therefore, we aimed to compare the pattern of abnormal liver tests in patients with SARS-CoV-2 with those of patients infected with influenza, a non-hepatotropic respiratory virus, and their association with worse outcomes during hospitalisation. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1,737 hospitalised patients (865 with influenza and 872 with SARS-CoV-2) in a tertiary medical centre. We defined abnormal liver tests as alanine transaminase or aspartate transaminase ≥40 IU/ml at any time-point during hospitalisation. RESULTS: Abnormal liver tests were mild to moderate in most patients regardless of infection type, but the majority of patients with influenza had a transaminase peak earlier during hospitalisation compared with patients with SARS-CoV-2. Abnormal liver tests correlated with markers of severe disease in either influenza or SARS-CoV-2 infections, and were associated with death, occurring mainly in patients with severe liver test abnormalities (>200 IU/L) (38.7% and 60% of patients with influenza or SARS-CoV-2, respectively). In multivariate analysis, controlling for age, sex, lymphopaenia, and C-reactive protein, liver test abnormalities remained significantly associated with death for influenza (odds ratio 4.344; 95% CI 2.218-8.508) and SARS-CoV-2 (odds ratio 3.898; 95% CI 2.203-6.896). These results were confirmed upon propensity score matching. CONCLUSIONS: Abnormal liver tests during hospitalisation with SARS-CoV-2 or influenza infections are common, may differ in their time course, and reflect disease severity. They are associated with worse outcomes, mainly in patients with severe liver test abnormalities, regardless of infection type. LAY SUMMARY: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a serious global health pandemic, the causative agent of which is severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Abnormal liver tests are common among SARS-CoV-2 infected patients and are often associated with worse outcomes. Herein, we compare the pattern of abnormal liver tests and their association with disease severity between 2 major non-hepatotropic respiratory viruses: SARS-CoV-2 and influenza. We show that abnormal liver tests are common in both infections, may slightly differ in their kinetics, and are associated with worse outcomes, especially in patients with severe liver test abnormalities. These results strongly suggest that abnormal liver tests in SARS-CoV-2 patients reflect disease severity, rather than a virus-mediated direct liver injury, and should be closely followed in admitted patients.

Cabozantinib for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The multi-kinase inhibitor sorafenib is a first-line drug for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Treatment options for patients whose disease has progressed on sorafenib are limited. In a recent randomized controlled trial (CELESTIAL trial), patients with advanced HCC who had failed prior systemic therapy had moderate progression-free survival and overall survival advantages when treated with the multi-kinase inhibitor cabozantinib. However, since this treatment is costly and is accompanied by significant adverse events in a large proportion of patients, its cost-effectiveness in these patients should be determined. METHODS: We developed a Markov model incorporating health outcomes, measured by life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of cabozantinib compared with placebo in patients who have failed prior systemic therapy. RESULTS: Treatment with cabozantinib results in a mean gain of 11.6 weeks of life (0.22 life-years) as compared with placebo. When quality of life was incorporated, treatment with cabozantinib produced a gain of 0.16 QALYs. The total mean incremental cost of cabozantinib was US$76,406 per patient. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for cabozantinib compared with best supportive care was US$469,374/QALY using the recommended dose of 60 mg cabozantinib daily. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the use of cabozantinib in patients with advanced HCC who have progressed on prior treatment, results in a modest incremental benefit with high incremental costs, suggesting that it is not cost-effective at conventional willingness to pay thresholds.

Regorafenib treatment for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who progressed on sorafenib-A cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading causes of cancer related deaths. Patients with advanced HCC are treated with sorafenib. A recent randomized controlled trial demonstrated a survival benefit for regorafenib treatment in patients with advanced HCC who had progressed on sorafenib. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of this approach. METHODS: To evaluate the cost effectiveness of regorafenib, we used a Markov model that incorporates health outcomes, measured by life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Drug costs were based on 2017 discounted prices. Model robustness was validated by probabilistic sensitivity analyses using Monte Carlo simulations. RESULTS: The use of regorafenib results in a gain of 19.76 weeks of life (0.38 Life Years) as compared to placebo. When adjusted for quality of life, using regorafenib produced a gain of 0.25 quality adjusted life years (QALYs). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for regorafenib compared with best supportive care was between $201,797 and $268,506 per QALY. CONCLUSION: The modest incremental benefit at a relatively high incremental cost of regorafenib treatment suggests that it is not cost-effective at commonly accepted willingness to pay thresholds.

AST to Platelet Ratio Index and fibrosis 4 calculator scores for non-invasive assessment of hepatic fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Liver fibrosis is the single most important prognostic factor in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The predictive value of the AST to Platelet Ratio Index (APRI) score, originally developed for fibrosis assessment in hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients, is much less known in the context of NAFLD patients. METHODS: We retrospectively compared the performance of APRI and fibrosis 4 calculator (FIB-4) scores in NAFLD patients with documented liver biopsies, to their performance in chronic HCV patients. RESULTS: 153 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD and 297 patients with biopsy-proven chronic HCV infection were included. The APRI score was a good predictor for advanced fibrosis in NAFLD patients (area under the ROC curve 0.8307) although it was modestly inferior as compared to the well-validated FIB-4 score (area under the ROC curve 0.8959). The predictive value of APRI score in NALFD patients was inferior as compared to its predictive value in HCV patients (area under the ROC curve of 0.8307 versus 0.9965). In contrast to FIB-4, APRI score was not a good discriminator between intermediate stages of fibrosis in NAFLD patients. CONCLUSIONS: APRI and Fib-4 scores are reasonable tools to allocate NAFLD patients with advanced fibrosis. FIB-4 may better discriminate between intermediate fibrosis stages.