Economic impact of informal caring for a person with arthritis in Australia from 2015 to 2030: a microsimulation approach using national survey data.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the economic burden of informal caregivers not in the labour force (NILF) due to caring for a person with arthritis in Australia, with projections of these costs from 2015 to 2030. DESIGN: Static microsimulation modelling using national survey data. SETTING: Australia nationwide survey. PARTICIPANTS: Participants include respondents to the Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers who are informal carers of a person who has arthritis as their main chronic condition and non-carers. OUTCOME MEASURES: Estimating the economic impact and national aggregated costs of informal carers NILF to care for a person with arthritis and projecting these costs from 2015 to 2030 in 5-year intervals. RESULTS: On a per-person basis, when adjusted for age, sex and highest education attained, the difference in average weekly total income between informal carers and non-carers employed in the labour force is $A1051 (95% CI: $A927 to $A1204) in 2015 and projected to increase by up to 22% by 2030. When aggregated, the total national annual loss of income to informal carers NILF is estimated at $A388.2 million (95% CI: $A324.3 to $A461.9 million) in 2015, increasing to $A576.9 million (95% CI: $A489.2 to $A681.8 million) by 2030. The national annual tax revenue lost to the government of the informal carers NILF is estimated at $A99 million (95% CI: $A77.9 to $A126.4 million) in 2015 and is projected to increase 49% by 2030. CONCLUSION: Informal carers NILF are economically worse off than employed non-carers, and the aggregated national annual costs are substantial. The future economic impact of informal carers NILF to care for a person with arthritis in Australia is projected to increase, with the estimated differences in income between informal carers and employed non-carers increasing by 22% from 2015 to 2030.

The Healthcare and Societal Costs of Familial Intellectual Disability.

Most of the studies on the cost of intellectual disability are limited to a healthcare perspective or cohorts composed of individuals where the etiology of the condition is a mixture of genetic and non-genetic factors. When used in policy development, these can impact the decisions made on the optimal allocation of resources. In our study, we have developed a static microsimulation model to estimate the healthcare, societal, and lifetime cost of individuals with familial intellectual disability, an inheritable form of the condition, to families and government. The results from our modeling show that the societal costs outweighed the health costs (approximately 89.2% and 10.8%, respectively). The lifetime cost of familial intellectual disability is approximately AUD 7 million per person and AUD 10.8 million per household. The lifetime costs to families are second to those of the Australian Commonwealth government (AUD 4.2 million and AUD 9.3 million per household, respectively). These findings suggest that familial intellectual disability is a very expensive condition, representing a significant cost to families and government. Understanding the drivers of familial intellectual disability, especially societal, can assist us in the development of policies aimed at improving health outcomes and greater access to social care for affected individuals and their families.

Narrowing the diagnostic gap: Genomes, episignatures, long-read sequencing, and health economic analyses in an exome-negative intellectual disability cohort.

PURPOSE: Genome sequencing (GS)-specific diagnostic rates in prospective tightly ascertained exome sequencing (ES)-negative intellectual disability (ID) cohorts have not been reported extensively. METHODS: ES, GS, epigenetic signatures, and long-read sequencing diagnoses were assessed in 74 trios with at least moderate ID. RESULTS: The ES diagnostic yield was 42 of 74 (57%). GS diagnoses were made in 9 of 32 (28%) ES-unresolved families. Repeated ES with a contemporary pipeline on the GS-diagnosed families identified 8 of 9 single-nucleotide variations/copy-number variations undetected in older ES, confirming a GS-unique diagnostic rate of 1 in 32 (3%). Episignatures contributed diagnostic information in 9% with GS corroboration in 1 of 32 (3%) and diagnostic clues in 2 of 32 (6%). A genetic etiology for ID was detected in 51 of 74 (69%) families. Twelve candidate disease genes were identified. Contemporary ES followed by GS cost US$4976 (95% CI: $3704; $6969) per diagnosis and first-line GS at a cost of $7062 (95% CI: $6210; $8475) per diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Performing GS only in ID trios would be cost equivalent to ES if GS were available at $2435, about a 60% reduction from current prices. This study demonstrates that first-line GS achieves higher diagnostic rate than contemporary ES but at a higher cost.

Economic analysis of patient-related effects of an interdisciplinary pain self-management program.

ABSTRACT: Active Day Patient Treatment (ADAPT) is a well-established 3 week intensive cognitive-behavioural, interdisciplinary pain management program for patients with disabling chronic pain. The aim of this analysis was to conduct an economic analysis of patient-related effects of ADAPT using hospital administrative data, specifically, to compare the costs and health outcomes for patients 1 month after participating in the program, with the preprogram period when they were receiving standard care. This retrospective cohort study included 230 patients who completed ADAPT (including follow-ups) between 2014 and 17 at the Pain Management and Research Centre at the Royal North Shore Hospital in Sydney, Australia. Data on pain-related healthcare utilization and costs before and after the program were assessed. Primary outcome measures were labour force participation for patients' average weekly earnings and cost per clinically meaningful change in Pain Self-efficacy Questionnaire, Brief Pain Inventory (BPI) Severity, and BPI interference scores (n = 224). We estimated patients, on average, earned $59 more each week at 1 month follow-up compared with baseline. The cost per clinically meaningful change in pain severity and interference score based on the BPI severity and BPI interference were AU$9452.32 (95% CI: $7031.76-$12,930.40) and AU$3446.62 (95% CI: $2851.67-$4126.46), respectively. The cost per point improvement and per clinically meaningful change in the Pain Self-efficacy Questionnaire were $483 (95% CI: $411.289-$568.606) and $3381.02, respectively. Our analysis showed a better health outcome, reduced healthcare services' cost, and reduced number of medications taken 1 month after participating in ADAPT.

The health care and societal costs of inherited retinal diseases in Australia: a microsimulation modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the health care and societal costs of inherited retinal diseases (IRDs) in Australia. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Microsimulation modelling study based on primary data - collected in interviews of people with IRDs who had ophthalmic or genetic consultations at the Children's Hospital at Westmead or the Save Sight Institute (both Sydney) during 1 January 2019 - 31 December 2020, and of their carers and spouses - and linked Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) and Pharmaceutical Benefits Schedule (PBS) data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual and lifetime costs for people with IRDs and for their carers and spouses, grouped by payer (Australian government, state governments, individuals, private health insurance) and type (health care costs; societal costs: social support, National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), income and taxation, costs associated with caring for family members with IRDs); estimated annual national cost of IRDs. RESULTS: Ninety-four people (74 adults, 20 people under 18 years; 55 girls and women [59%]) and 30 carers completed study surveys (participation rate: adults, 66%; children, 66%; carers, 63%). Total estimated lifetime cost was $5.2 million per person with an IRD, of which 87% were societal and 13% health care costs. The three highest cost items were lost income for people with IRDs ($1.4 million), lost income for their carers and spouses ($1.1 million), and social spending by the Australian government (excluding NDIS expenses: $1.0 million). Annual costs were twice as high for people who were legally blind as for those with less impaired vision ($83 910 v $41 357 per person). The estimated total annual cost of IRDs in Australia was $781 million to $1.56 billion. CONCLUSION: As the societal costs associated with IRDs are much larger than the health care costs, both contributors should be considered when assessing the cost-effectiveness of interventions for people with IRDs. The increasing loss of income across life reflects the impact of IRDs on employment and career opportunities.

Healthcare resource utilization of patients with mitochondrial disease in an outpatient hospital setting.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Mitochondrial diseases present as multi-system disorders requiring a comprehensive multidisciplinary approach. The data on healthcare resource utilization associated with mitochondrial diseases and the clinical drivers of these costs are limited including for the out-patient setting where the majority of the clinical care for mitochondrial disease patients occurs. We performed a cross-sectional retrospective study of out-patient healthcare resource utilization and costs for patients with a confirmed diagnosis of mitochondrial disease. METHODS: We recruited participants from the Mitochondrial Disease Clinic in Sydney and stratified them into three groups: those with mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) mutations (Group 1), those with nuclear DNA (nDNA) mutations and the predominant phenotype of chronic progressive external ophthalmoplegia (CPEO) or optic atrophy (Group 2) and those without a confirmed genetic diagnosis but clinical criteria and muscle biopsy findings supportive of a diagnosis of mitochondrial disease (Group 3). Data was collected through retrospective chart review and out-patient costs were calculated using the Medicare Benefits Schedule. RESULTS: We analyzed the data from 91 participants and found that Group 1 had the greatest average out-patient costs per person per annum ($838.02; SD 809.72). Neurological investigations were the largest driver of outpatient healthcare costs in all groups (average costs per person per annum:-Group 1: $364.11; SD 340.93, Group 2: $247.83; SD 113.86 and Group 3: $239.57; SD 145.69) consistent with the high frequency (94.5%) of neurological symptoms. Gastroenterological and cardiac-related out-patient costs were also major contributors to out-patient healthcare resource utilization in Groups 1 and 3. In Group 2, ophthalmology was the second-most resource intensive specialty ($136.85; SD 173.35). The Group 3 had the greatest average healthcare resource utilization per person over the entire duration of out-patient clinic care ($5815.86; SD 3520.40) most likely due to the lack of a molecular diagnosis and a less customized management approach. CONCLUSION: The drivers of healthcare resource utilization are dependent on the phenotype-genotype characteristics. Neurological, cardiac, and gastroenterological costs were the top three drivers in the out-patient clinics unless the patient had nDNA mutations with predominant phenotype of CPEO and/or optic atrophy wherein ophthalmological-related costs were the second most resource intensive driver.

Economic evaluation of population-based, expanded reproductive carrier screening for genetic diseases in Australia.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to evaluate the cost effectiveness of population-based, expanded reproductive carrier screening (RCS) for a 300 recessive gene panel from health service and societal perspectives. METHODS: A microsimulation model (PreConMod) was developed using 2016 Australian Census data as the base population. Epidemiologic, health, and indirect cost data were based on literature review. The study assessed the incremental cost effectiveness ratio of expanded RCS compared with (1) no population screening and (2) 3-condition screening for cystic fibrosis, spinal muscular atrophy, and fragile X syndrome in a single birth cohort. Averted affected births and health service savings with expanded RCS were projected to year 2061. Both one-way and probability sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the uncertainty of the parameter inputs. RESULTS: Expanded RCS was cost saving compared with no population screening and cost effective compared with the 3-condition screening (incremental cost effectiveness ratio of Australian dollar [AUD] 6287 per quality-adjusted life year gained) at an uptake rate of 50% for RCS, 59% for in vitro fertilization and preimplantation genetic testing, 90% for prenatal diagnosis testing, and 50% for elective termination of affected pregnancies and a cost of AUD595 per couple screened. Our model predicts that expanded RCS would avert one-third of affected births in a single birth cohort and reduce lifetime health service spending by AUD632.0 million. Expanded RCS was estimated to be cost saving from the societal perspective. CONCLUSION: Expanded RCS is cost effective from health service and societal perspectives. Expanded RCS is projected to avert significantly more affected births and result in health service saving beyond those expected from 3-condition screening or no population screening.

Whole exome and genome sequencing in mendelian disorders: a diagnostic and health economic analysis.

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) improves Mendelian disorder diagnosis over whole exome sequencing (WES); however, additional diagnostic yields and costs remain undefined. We investigated differences between diagnostic and cost outcomes of WGS and WES in a cohort with suspected Mendelian disorders. WGS was performed in 38 WES-negative families derived from a 64 family Mendelian cohort that previously underwent WES. For new WGS diagnoses, contemporary WES reanalysis determined whether variants were diagnosable by original WES or unique to WGS. Diagnostic rates were estimated for WES and WGS to simulate outcomes if both had been applied to the 64 families. Diagnostic costs were calculated for various genomic testing scenarios. WGS diagnosed 34% (13/38) of WES-negative families. However, contemporary WES reanalysis on average 2 years later would have diagnosed 18% (7/38 families) resulting in a WGS-specific diagnostic yield of 19% (6/31 remaining families). In WES-negative families, the incremental cost per additional diagnosis using WGS following WES reanalysis was AU$36,710 (£19,407;US$23,727) and WGS alone was AU$41,916 (£22,159;US$27,093) compared to WES-reanalysis. When we simulated the use of WGS alone as an initial genomic test, the incremental cost for each additional diagnosis was AU$29,708 (£15,705;US$19,201) whereas contemporary WES followed by WGS was AU$36,710 (£19,407;US$23,727) compared to contemporary WES. Our findings confirm that WGS is the optimal genomic test choice for maximal diagnosis in Mendelian disorders. However, accepting a small reduction in diagnostic yield, WES with subsequent reanalysis confers the lowest costs. Whether WES or WGS is utilised will depend on clinical scenario and local resourcing and availability.

Individual and national financial impacts of informal caring for people with mental illness in Australia, projected to 2030.

BACKGROUND: Mental illness has a significant impact not only on patients, but also on their carers' capacity to work. AIMS: To estimate the costs associated with lost labour force participation due to the provision of informal care for people with mental illness in Australia, such as income loss for carers and lost tax revenue and increased welfare payments for government, from 2015 to 2030. METHOD: The output data of a microsimulation model Care&WorkMOD were analysed to project the financial costs of informal care for people with mental illness, from 2015 to 2030. Care&WorkMOD is a population-representative microsimulation model of the Australian population aged between 15 and 64 years, built using the Australian Bureau of Statistics Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers data and the data from other population-representative microsimulation models. RESULTS: The total annual national loss of income for all carers due to caring for someone with mental illness was projected to rise from AU$451 million (£219.6 million) in 2015 to AU$645 million (£314 million) in 2030 in real terms. For the government, the total annual lost tax revenue was projected to rise from AU$121 million (£58.9 million) in 2015 to AU$170 million (£82.8 million) in 2030 and welfare payments to increase from AU$170 million (£82.8 million) to AU$220 million (£107 million) in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: The costs associated with lost labour force participation due to the provision of informal care for people with mental illness are projected to increase for both carers and government, with a widening income gap between informal carers and employed non-carers, putting carers at risk of increased inequality.

Return to work and productivity loss after surgery: A health economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to identify preoperative psychosocial factors associated with return-to-work (RTW) and the associated cost of productivity loss due to work absenteeism following surgery. Research demonstrates a high economic burden from productivity loss after surgery, but the comparative cost of productivity loss relative to income across different operations has not been examined. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A mixed surgical cohort recruited for a randomized controlled trial were prospectively followed for up to two years following surgery with daily phone assessments to three months, weekly assessments thereafter to six months, then monthly assessments thereafter to determine RTW status, opioid use and pain. RESULTS: 183 of 207 (88.3%) patients in paid employment prior to surgery, who provided at least one day of follow-up, were included in this analysis. The average cost of productivity loss due to work absenteeism was $13 761 (median $9064). Patients who underwent total knee replacement incurred the highest income loss. Medical claims filed before surgery were significantly associated with relative income loss (AOR 5.09; 95% CI 1.73-14.96; p < 0.01) and delayed postoperative RTW. Elevated preoperative PTSD symptoms were associated with delayed RTW (HR 0.78; 95%CI 0.63-0.96; p-value = 0.02) while male gender (HR 1.63; 95%CI 1.11-2.38; p-value = 0.01) was associated with faster postoperative RTW. CONCLUSION: Surgery places a high economic burden on individuals due to postoperative productivity loss. Multidisciplinary approaches, such as pathways, that facilitate the operation and recovery may mitigate the economic consequences for patients, employers, and the healthcare system.

An Analysis of Hospital Costs for Childhood Cancer Care.

BACKGROUND: This study used a linked dataset consisting of all childhood cancers recorded over the course of 10 years in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, to evaluate the hospital and emergency department costs (from a payer perspective) and resources used by patients with childhood cancer. We also analyzed determinants responsible for high-frequency hospital admissions, hospital length of stay (LoS), and hospital costs. METHODS: We analyzed linked data at the individual patient level for a retrospective cohort of 2,966 patients with cancer aged <18 years with a diagnosis date between 2001 and 2012 from the NSW Central Cancer Registry, Australia. We reported costs and use of hospitalization and emergency department presentation 1 year before the date of diagnosis, 1 year after diagnosis, and 2 to 5 years after diagnosis. We also examined the association between cancer types and hospital admission and hospital costs from the payer perspective. Patient characteristics associated with the frequency of hospital admissions, hospital LoS, and hospital costs were also determined using a generalized linear model. RESULTS: Most hospital admission costs occurred in the first year after diagnosis, accounting for >70% of hospital costs within 5 years after diagnosis. The estimated median annual cost of hospitalization in the first year after diagnosis was A$88,964 (interquartile range [IQR], A$34,399-A$163,968) for patients diagnosed at age 0 to 14 years and A$23,384 (IQR, A$5,585-A$91,565) for those diagnosed at age 15 to 17 years. Higher frequency of hospital admissions, hospital LoS, and hospital costs were significantly associated with younger age at cancer diagnosis, cancer metastases, and living in remote/disadvantaged socioeconomic areas. CONCLUSIONS: Our study represents one of the first in Australia to include detailed hospitalization cost information for all childhood cancer cases. This study highlights the high hospital use by pediatric patients and the importance of early diagnosis. Our findings also demonstrate the health inequities experienced by patients from remote areas and the lowest socioeconomic areas.

Informal caring for back pain: overlooked costs of back pain and projections to 2030.

This study models the economic costs of informal caring for people with back pain, using a microsimulation model, Care&WorkMOD, from 2015 to 2030. Care&WorkMOD was based on 3 national Australian Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (2003, 2009, 2012) data sets for individuals aged 15 to 64 years. Estimated national income loss due to caring for people with back pain was AU$258 million in 2015, increasing to $398 million in 2030 (54% increase). Lost income tax revenue to the Australian government due to informal care of people with back pain was estimated to be AU$78 million in 2015, increasing to AU$118 million in 2030 (50% increase), and additional welfare payments were estimated to rise from $132 million in 2015 to AU$180 in 2030 (36% increase). Larger growth in lost income, compared with the increase in welfare payments, means that there would be an increasing income gap between those out of the labour force providing informal care and noncarers who are in the labour force, leading to increased inequality. Informal carers are defined as providers of informal, unpaid assistance to someone with a health condition, for at least 6 months. Informal carers of people with back pain who are out of the labour force incur substantial economic costs. Furthermore, back pain is a large economic burden on national governments. Policies addressing back pain prevention and treatment, and supporting carers, may offset government welfare expenditure, while improving the socioeconomic well-being of carers and patients.

Intellectual disability and autism: socioeconomic impacts of informal caring, projected to 2030.

BACKGROUND: Intellectual disability and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) influence the interactions of a person with their environment and generate economic and socioeconomic costs for the person, their family and society. AIMS: To estimate costs of lost workforce participation due to informal caring for people with intellectual disability or autism spectrum disorders by estimating lost income to individuals, lost taxation payments to federal government and increased welfare payments. METHOD: We used a microsimulation model based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (population surveys of people aged 15-64), and projected costs of caring from 2015 in 5-year intervals to 2030. RESULTS: The model estimated that informal carers of people with intellectual disability and/or ASD in Australia had aggregated lost income of AU$310 million, lost taxation of AU$100 million and increased welfare payments of AU$204 million in 2015. These are projected to increase to AU$432 million, AU$129 million and AU$254 million for income, taxation, and welfare respectively by 2030. The income gap of carers for people with intellectual disability and/or ASD is estimated to increase by 2030, meaning more financial stress for carers. CONCLUSIONS: Informal carers of people with intellectual disability and/or ASD experience significant loss of income, leading to increased welfare payments and reduced taxation revenue for governments; these are all projected to increase. Strategic policies supporting informal carers wishing to return to work could improve the financial and psychological impact of having a family member with intellectual disability and/or ASD. DECLARATION OF INTEREST: None.

Indirect costs of depression and other mental and behavioural disorders for Australia from 2015 to 2030.

BACKGROUND: The impact of mental disorders has been assessed in relation to longevity and quality of life; however, mental disorders also have an impact on productive life-years (PLYs). AIMS: To quantify the long-term costs of Australians aged 45-64 having lost PLYs because of mental disorders. METHOD: The Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2003, 2009 formed the base population of Health&WealthMOD2030 - a microsimulation model integrating output from the Static Incomes Model, the Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model, the Treasury and the Australian Burden of Disease Study. RESULTS: For depression, individuals incurred a loss of AU$1062 million in income in 2015, projected to increase to AU$1539 million in 2030 (45% increase). The government is projected to incur costs comprising a 22% increase in social security payments and a 45% increase in lost taxes as a result of depression through its impact on PLYs. CONCLUSIONS: Effectiveness of mental health programmes should be judged not only in terms of healthcare use but also quality of life and economic well-being. DECLARATION OF INTEREST: None.

Semiquantitative assessment of cytomorphologic features can predict mutation status of thyroid nodules with indeterminate cytologic diagnosis.

Molecular diagnostics increasingly direct the management of thyroid nodules with an indeterminate cytologic diagnosis. This study was undertaken to correlate cytomorphologic features with the molecular profiles in an effort to identify features predictive of molecular aberrations. One hundred eighty-nine thyroid nodules with an indeterminate thyroid cytology diagnosis (atypia of undetermined significance, suspicious for follicular lesion, and suspicious for malignancy) with an adequate sample submitted for targeted mutation detection by polymerase chain reaction or next-generation sequencing were assessed semiquantitatively for the following cytomorphologic parameters: cellularity, Hurthle cell changes, microfollicles, nuclear elongation, nuclear grooves, nuclear enlargement, nuclear atypia, extent of atypia, and colloid. Based on this evaluation, a cumulative cytomorphologic score (CCS) and a more simplified overall atypia score (OAS) were assigned to each case. Associations among mutational status and each of the aforementioned parameters, CCS, and OAS were determined. Of the 189 nodules with indeterminate cytology, 63 (33.3%) harbored at least 1 mutation. RAS and BRAF were the most common mutations, found in 34 (18.0%) and 13 (6.9%) cases, respectively. Both CCS and OAS were highly associated with the presence of all mutations (P < .0001) and with the presence of BRAF and RAS mutations in particular (all P < .01). Semiquantitative assessment of various cytomorphologic features in indeterminate thyroid cytology cases showed a strong association of higher OAS and CCS and incidence of BRAF and RAS mutations. Using a more objective approach to thyroid cytology can potentially decrease the overall number of indeterminate diagnoses, leading to fewer repeat procedures and unnecessary surgical procedures.

The productivity gains associated with a junk food tax and their impact on cost-effectiveness.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the productivity impacts of a policy intervention on the prevention of premature mortality due to obesity. METHODS: A simulation model of the Australian population over the period from 2003 to 2030 was developed to estimate productivity gains associated with premature deaths averted due to an obesity prevention intervention that applied a 10% tax on unhealthy foods. Outcome measures were the total working years gained, and the present value of lifetime income (PVLI) gained. Impacts were modelled over the period from 2003 to 2030. Costs are reported in 2018 Australian dollars and a 3% discount rate was applied to all future benefits. RESULTS: Premature deaths averted due to a junk food tax accounted for over 8,000 additional working years and a $307 million increase in PVLI. Deaths averted in men between the ages of 40 to 59, and deaths averted from ischaemic heart disease, were responsible for the largest gains. CONCLUSIONS: The productivity gains associated with a junk food tax are substantial, accounting for almost twice the value of the estimated savings to the health care system. The results we have presented provide evidence that the adoption of a societal perspective, when compared to a health sector perspective, provides a more comprehensive estimate of the cost-effectiveness of a junk food tax.

The indirect costs of ischemic heart disease through lost productive life years for Australia from 2015 to 2030: results from a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: Most studies measure the impact of ischemic heart disease (IHD) on individuals using quality of life metrics such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs); however, IHD also has an enormous impact on productive life years (PLYs). The objective of this study was to project the indirect costs of IHD resulting from lost PLYs to older Australian workers (45-64 years), government, and society 2015-2030. METHODS: Nationally representative data from the Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (2003, 2009) were used to develop the base population in the microsimulation model (Health&WealthMOD2030), which integrated data from established microsimulation models (STINMOD, APPSIM), Treasury's population and workforce projections, and chronic conditions trends. RESULTS: We projected that 6700 people aged 45-64 were out of the labour force due to IHD in 2015, increasing to 8100 in 2030 (21 increase). National costs consisted of a loss of AU$273 (US$263) million in income for people with IHD in 2015, increasing to AU$443 ($US426) million (62% increase). For the government, extra welfare payments increased from AU$106 (US$102) million in 2015 to AU$143 (US$138) million in 2030 (35% increase); and lost income tax revenue increased from AU$74 (US$71) million in 2015 to AU$117 (US$113) million in 2030 (58% increase). A loss of AU$785 (US$755) million in GDP was projected for 2015, increasing to AU$1125 (US$1082) million in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Significant costs of IHD through lost productivity are incurred by individuals, the government, and society. The benefits of IHD interventions include not only improved health but also potentially economic benefits as workforce capacity.

Productivity costs of cardiovascular disease mortality across disease types and socioeconomic groups.

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the single largest contributor to global mortality. Premature mortality due to CVD results in a loss of productivity, with associated economic and policy implications that are often overlooked. Methods: A human capital approach was adopted to project the long-term impacts of Australian CVD deaths in 2003 on labour force participation and the present value of lifetime income (PVLI) forgone. Impacts were modelled to the year 2030 and accounted for individual characteristics at the time of death including age, sex and socioeconomic status. Results: Premature deaths due to CVD in 2003 accounted for 51 659 working years and $2.69 billion in PVLI forgone when modelled to 2030 (95% CI $2.63 billion to $2.75 billion). The labour force impacts were highest for individuals aged between 35 and 64 at the time of death, and male deaths accounted for 87% of the total PVLI loss. The most costly disease type was ischaemic heart disease, followed by stroke and inflammatory heart disease. Deaths occurring in individuals residing in the most socioeconomically disadvantaged areas at the time of death had a disproportionately large impact on the total PVLI loss. Conclusions: This study quantifies the relative productivity costs of CVD mortality across a range of disease types and socioeconomic groups. The magnitude of these costs highlights the scope for investments in effective healthcare interventions to provide positive economic returns and may assist decision makers in allocating resources among competing priorities.

Does genomic sequencing early in the diagnostic trajectory make a difference? A follow-up study of clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness.

PURPOSE: To systematically investigate the longer-term clinical and health economic impacts of genomic sequencing for rare-disease diagnoses. METHODS: We collected information on continuing diagnostic investigation, changes in management, cascade testing, and parental reproductive outcomes in 80 infants who underwent singleton whole-exome sequencing (WES). RESULTS: The median duration of follow-up following result disclosure was 473 days. Changes in clinical management due to diagnostic WES results led to a cost saving of AU$1,578 per quality-adjusted life year gained, without increased hospital service use. Uninformative WES results contributed to the diagnosis of non-Mendelian conditions in seven infants. Further usual diagnostic investigations in those with ongoing suspicion of a genetic condition yielded no new diagnoses, while WES data reanalysis yielded four. Reanalysis at 18 months was more cost-effective than every 6 months. The parents of diagnosed children had eight more ongoing pregnancies than those without a diagnosis. Taking the costs and benefits of cascade testing and reproductive service use into account, there was an additional cost of AU$8,118 per quality-adjusted life year gained due to genomic sequencing. CONCLUSION: These data strengthen the case for the early use of genomic testing in the diagnostic trajectory, and can guide laboratory policy on periodic WES data reanalysis.

Economic costs of informal care for people with chronic diseases in the community: Lost income, extra welfare payments, and reduced taxes in Australia in 2015-2030.

We estimated the economic costs of informal care in the community from 2015 to 2030, using an Australian microsimulation model, Care&WorkMOD. The model was based on data from three Surveys of Disability, Ageing, and Carers (SDACs) for the Australian population aged 15-64 years old. Estimated national income lost was AU$3.58 billion in 2015, increasing to $5.33 billion in 2030 (49% increase). Lost tax payments were estimated at AU$0.99 billion in 2015, increasing to AU$1.44 billion in 2030 (45% increase), and additional welfare payments were expected to rise from $1.45 billion in 2015 to AU$1.94 in 2030 (34% increase). There are substantial economic costs both to informal carers and the government due to carers being out of the labour-force to provide informal care for people with chronic diseases. Health and social policies supporting carers to remain in the labour force may allow governments to make substantial savings, while improving the economic situation of carers.