Assessment of the global circulation and endemicity of dengue.

Dengue is a significant public health issue, affecting hundreds of millions of people worldwide. As it is spreading from tropical and subtropical zones, some regions previously recognised as non-endemic are at risk of becoming endemic. However, the global circulation of dengue is not fully understood and quantitative measurements of endemicity levels are lacking, posing an obstacle in the precise control of dengue spread. In this study, a sequence-based pipeline was designed based on random sampling to study the transmission of dengue. The limited intercontinental transmission was identified, while regional circulation of dengue was quantified in terms of importation, local circulation and exportation. Additionally, hypo- and hyper-endemic regions were identified using a new metric, with the former characterised by low local circulation and increased importation, whereas the latter by high local circulation and reduced importation. In this study, the global circulation pattern of dengue was examined and a sequence-based endemicity measurement was proposed, which will be helpful for future surveillance and targeted control of dengue.

Dual influenza and pneumococcal vaccination was associated with lower short-term risks of all-cause and acute respiratory hospitalizations among the elderly in Shenzhen, China: a retrospective cohort study.

The present study evaluated the real-world effectiveness of influenza and pneumococcal dual-vaccination among Chinese elderly, the evidence on which was absent. Outpatient and inpatient claims databases from Jan 1, 2015 to Apr 1, 2017 of persons at least 60 years old in Shenzhen, China were merged with electronic records of influenza vaccines and 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccines (PPSV23) from Oct 1, 2016 - May 31, 2017. Individuals who were vaccinated with influenza between Nov 1 and Dec 31, 2016 and received PPSV23 30 days within the date of influenza vaccination were defined as the vaccinated group. A control group consisted of individuals that received neither of the vaccines was constructed by matching on year of birth, sex, and district. The two outcomes were all-cause and acute respiratory hospitalizations. Difference-in-difference (DiD) logistic regressions that were proceeded with an entropy balancing (EB) process were used to analyse the effectiveness of dual-vaccination. A total of 48,116 eligible individuals were identified in the vaccinated group, which were matched by 93,692 individuals in the control group. The EB-DiD analyses estimated that dual-vaccination was associated with lower short-term risks of all-cause (odds ratio: 0.59, CI: 0.55-0.63) and acute respiratory (odds ratio: 0.49, CI: 0.41-0.59) hospitalizations.

Burden of influenza-associated outpatient influenza-like illness consultations in China, 2006-2015: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Human influenza virus infections cause a considerable burden of morbidity and mortality worldwide each year. Understanding regional influenza-associated outpatient burden is crucial for formulating control strategies against influenza viruses. METHODS: We extracted the national sentinel surveillance data on outpatient visits due to influenza-like-illness (ILI) and virological confirmation of sentinel specimens from 30 provinces of China from 2006 to 2015. Generalized additive regression models were fitted to estimate influenza-associated excess ILI outpatient burden for each individual province, accounting for seasonal baselines and meteorological factors. RESULTS: Influenza was associated with an average of 2.5 excess ILI consultations per 1000 person-years (py) in 30 provinces of China each year from 2006 to 2015. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 led to a higher number of influenza-associated ILI consultations in 2009 across all provinces compared with other years. The excess ILI burden was 4.5 per 1000 py among children aged below 15 years old, substantially higher than that in adults. CONCLUSIONS: Human influenza viruses caused considerable impact on population morbidity, with a consequent healthcare and economic burden. This study provided the evidence for planning of vaccination programs in China and a framework to estimate burden of influenza-associated outpatient consultations.

Molecular evolution of influenza B virus during 2011-2017 in Chaoyang, Beijing, suggesting the free influenza vaccine policy.

Two influenza B virus lineages, B/Victoria and B/Yamagata, are co-circulating in human population. While the two lineages are serologically distinct and TIV only contain one lineage. It is important to investigate the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of two influenza B virus lineages in Beijing after the free influenza vaccine policy from 2007. Here, we collected the nasopharyngeal swabs of 12657 outpatients of influenza-like illness and subtyped by real-time RT-PCR during 2011-2017. The HA and NA genes of influenza B were fully sequenced. The prevalence is the highest in the 6-17 years old group among people infected with influenza B. Yamagata-lineage virus evolved to two inter-clade from 2011-2014 to 2014-2017. The amino acids substitutions of HA1 region were R279K in strains of 2011-2014 and L173Q, M252V in strains of 2014-2017. Substitutions L58P, I146V were observed in HA1 region of Victoria-lineage virus in 2011-2012 and I117V, N129D were showed in 2015-2017. Phylogenetic analysis of NA showed Yamagata-Victoria inter-lineage reassortant occurred in 2013-2014. Influenza B mainly infect the school-aged children in Beijing and the free influenza vaccine inoculation does not seem to block school-age children from infection with influenza B. The antigen characteristics of circulating influenza B were different to the recommended vaccine strains. We concluded that the Victoria-lineage vaccine strain should been changed and the free influenza vaccine should be revalued.

Antigenic Patterns and Evolution of the Human Influenza A (H1N1) Virus.

The influenza A (H1N1) virus causes seasonal epidemics that result in severe illnesses and deaths almost every year. A deep understanding of the antigenic patterns and evolution of human influenza A (H1N1) virus is extremely important for its effective surveillance and prevention. Through development of antigenicity inference method for human influenza A (H1N1), named PREDAC-H1, we systematically mapped the antigenic patterns and evolution of the human influenza A (H1N1) virus. Eight dominant antigenic clusters have been inferred for seasonal H1N1 viruses since 1977, which demonstrated sequential replacements over time with a similar pattern in Asia, Europe and North America. Among them, six clusters emerged first in Asia. As for China, three of the eight antigenic clusters were detected in South China earlier than in North China, indicating the leading role of South China in H1N1 transmission. The comprehensive view of the antigenic evolution of human influenza A (H1N1) virus can help formulate better strategy for its prevention and control.

Seasonal influenza vaccine policies, recommendations and use in the World Health Organization's Western Pacific Region.

OBJECTIVE: Vaccination is the most effective way to prevent seasonal influenza and its severe outcomes. The objective of our study was to synthesize information on seasonal influenza vaccination policies, recommendations and practices in place in 2011 for all countries and areas in the Western Pacific Region of the World Health Organization (WHO). METHODS: Data were collected via a questionnaire on seasonal influenza vaccination policies, recommendations and practices in place in 2011. RESULTS: Thirty-six of the 37 countries and areas (97%) responded to the survey. Eighteen (50%) reported having established seasonal influenza vaccination policies, an additional seven (19%) reported having recommendations for risk groups for seasonal influenza vaccination only and 11 (30%) reported having no policies or recommendations in place. Of the 25 countries and areas with policies or recommendations, health-care workers and the elderly were most frequently recommended for vaccination; 24 (96%) countries and areas recommended vaccinating these groups, followed by pregnant women (19 [76%]), people with chronic illness (18 [72%]) and children (15 [60%]). Twenty-six (72%) countries and areas reported having seasonal influenza vaccines available through public funding, private market purchase or both. Most of these countries and areas purchased only enough vaccine to cover 25% or less of their populations. DISCUSSION: In light of the new WHO position paper on influenza vaccines published in 2012 and the increasing availability of country-specific data, countries and areas should consider reviewing or developing their seasonal influenza vaccination policies to reduce morbidity and mortality associated with annual epidemics and as part of ongoing efforts for pandemic preparedness.

Origin and diversity of novel avian influenza A H7N9 viruses causing human infection: phylogenetic, structural, and coalescent analyses.

BACKGROUND: On March 30, 2013, a novel avian influenza A H7N9 virus that infects human beings was identified. This virus had been detected in six provinces and municipal cities in China as of April 18, 2013. We correlated genomic sequences from avian influenza viruses with ecological information and did phylogenetic and coalescent analyses to extrapolate the potential origins of the virus and possible routes of reassortment events. METHODS: We downloaded H7N9 virus genome sequences from the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) database and public sequences used from the Influenza Virus Resource. We constructed phylogenetic trees and did 1000 bootstrap replicates for each tree. Two rounds of phylogenetic analyses were done. We used at least 100 closely related sequences for each gene to infer the overall topology, removed suspicious sequences from the trees, and focused on the closest clades to the novel H7N9 viruses. We compared our tree topologies with those from a bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees (BEAST) analysis. We used the bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method to jointly estimate phylogenies, divergence times, and other evolutionary parameters for all eight gene fragments. We used sequence alignment and homology-modelling methods to study specific mutations regarding phenotypes, specifically addressing the human receptor binding properties. FINDINGS: The novel avian influenza A H7N9 virus originated from multiple reassortment events. The HA gene might have originated from avian influenza viruses of duck origin, and the NA gene might have transferred from migratory birds infected with avian influenza viruses along the east Asian flyway. The six internal genes of this virus probably originated from two different groups of H9N2 avian influenza viruses, which were isolated from chickens. Detailed analyses also showed that ducks and chickens probably acted as the intermediate hosts leading to the emergence of this virulent H7N9 virus. Genotypic and potential phenotypic differences imply that the isolates causing this outbreak form two separate subclades. INTERPRETATION: The novel avian influenza A H7N9 virus might have evolved from at least four origins. Diversity among isolates implies that the H7N9 virus has evolved into at least two different lineages. Unknown intermediate hosts involved might be implicated, extensive global surveillance is needed, and domestic-poultry-to-person transmission should be closely watched in the future. FUNDING: China Ministry of Science and Technology Project 973, National Natural Science Foundation of China, China Health and Family Planning Commission, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

[Pattern on the spread of novel influenza A (H1N1) and quantitative assessment of containment in mainland China].

OBJECTIVE: To study the epidemic tendency of emerging influenza A (H1N1) in mainland China, and to explore the different patterns of spread on the disease under the following contexts: (1) To stop the temperature screening program at the border areas of the country; (2) To stop measures of prevention and control on those identified cases and their close contacts; (3) To strengthen programs for the foreign immigrants on 'home quarantine'. METHODS: Under relevant parameters and information on the transmission link from different reference data, the patterns of influenza spread were simulated by Monte Carlo method. RESULTS: The temperature screening on border could inhibit the transmission of influenza A (H1N1) to some extent, so that after 3 months the cumulative number of cases will be reduced by 21.5% (1718 cases) and transmission speed of influenza A (H1N1) in mainland China will be delayed by about 4 days. Furthermore, taking positive measures of prevention and control could efficiently slow down the epidemic, so that after 3 months the cumulative number of cases will be reduced by 93.4% (about 90 thousand cases) and it would be delayed by about 15 days if influenza A (H1N1) spreads to the whole country. In addition, if the immigrants were able to practise quarantine measures consciously by themselves at home the effect of prevention and control against influenza A (H1N1) would be more significant. If 30%, 60% and 90% of immigrants would take quarantine measures home consciously, after 3 months the cumulative number of cases will be reduced by about 15% (about 940 cases), 34% (about 2230 cases) and 64% (about 4180 cases), respectively. Also, influenza A (H1N1) spreads to the whole country will be delayed by about 4 days, 10 days and 25 days, respectively. It is difficult to curb fully the development of the epidemic by taking existing control measures, and influenza A (H1N1) may spread to almost all provinces after about 3 months. CONCLUSION: The effects of existing prevention and control measures were objectively assessed and the results showed the necessity and effectiveness of these measures against the transmission of influenza A (H1N1), in the mainland of China.