The ethical dilemmas of risky decisions.

Even in a pandemic there seem to be inherent conflicts of interest between the individual and societal consequences of remedial actions and strategies. Actions taken in the sole interests of patients, as required by the Hippocratic oath, can have broadly inconvenient economic implications for the State. ("Average" benefits for a population can impose individual inconveniences for the vulnerable.). Understandably these decisions are not normally made explicitly and transparently by governments. This leads to seemingly illogical and inhumane strategies which are not understood and hence mistrusted and often ignored by the public. Vaccination sentiments on social media are often an unwanted symptom of this dilemma. This article outlines and discusses a number of examples of such situations with a focus on ethical aspects. It concludes that each case must be considered individually as to the issues that need to be weighed in these difficult decisions; and that there are no clear and universally acceptable ethical solutions. What can be learned from the COVID-19 crisis is that short term utilitarianism has consequences that in the eyes of the population are unacceptable. This lesson seems equally valid for cost benefit evaluations regarding other risks, such as from hazardous industries, flood defenses, and air transport. Decisionmakers and politicians can learn that persuasion only goes so far. In the end the people appear to prioritize in terms of deontology.

Adaptations to practice and resilience in a paediatric major trauma centre during a mass casualty incident.

BACKGROUND: Innovation and human adaptation in the face of unfolding catastrophe is the cornerstone of an effective systemwide response. Capturing, analysing, and disseminating this is fundamental in developing resilience for future events. The aim of this study was to understand the characteristics of adaptations to practice early in a paediatric major trauma centre during a mass casualty incident. METHODS: A qualitative interview study of 40 healthcare staff at a paediatric major trauma centre in the immediate aftermath of a terrorist bombing was conducted. An inductive thematic analysis approach was used, followed by a deductive analysis of the identified adaptations informed by constructs of resilience engineering. RESULTS: Five themes of adaptations to practice that enhanced the resilient performance of the hospital were identified: teamworking; psychologically supporting patients, families, and staff; reconfiguring infrastructure; working around the hospital electronic systems; and maintaining hospital safety. Examples of resilience potential in terms of respond, monitor, anticipate, and learn are presented. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows how adaptations to practice sustained the resilient performance of a paediatric major trauma centre during a mass casualty incident. Rapid, early capture of these data during a mass casualty incident provides key insights into enhancing future emergency preparedness, response, and resilience planning.

Beacon-Based Remote Measurement of Social Behavior in ASD Clinical Trials: A Technical Feasibility Assessment.

In this work, we propose a Bluetooth low energy (BLE) beacon-based algorithm to enable remote measurement of the social behavior of the participants of an observational Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) clinical trial (NCT03611075). We have developed a mobile application for a smartphone and a smartwatch to collect beacon signals from BLE beacon sensors as well as to store information about the participants' household rooms. Our goal is to collect beacon information about the time the participants spent in different rooms of their household to infer sociability information. We applied the same technology and setup in an internal experiment with healthy volunteers to evaluate the accuracy of the proposed algorithm in 10 different home setups, and we observed an average accuracy of 97.2%. Moreover, we show that it is feasible for the clinical study participants/caregivers to set up the BLE beacon sensors in their homes without any technical help, with 96% of them setting up the technology on the first day of data collection. Next, we present results from one-week location data from study participants collected through the proposed technology. Finally, we provide a list of good practice guidelines for optimally applying beacon technology for indoor location monitoring. The proposed algorithm enables us to estimate time spent in different rooms of a household that can pave the development of objective sociability features and eventually support decisions regarding drug efficacy in ASD.

Fragmentation and inefficiencies in US equity markets: Evidence from the Dow 30.

Using the most comprehensive source of commercially available data on the US National Market System, we analyze all quotes and trades associated with Dow 30 stocks in calendar year 2016 from the vantage point of a single and fixed frame of reference. We find that inefficiencies created in part by the fragmentation of the equity marketplace are relatively common and persist for longer than what physical constraints may suggest. Information feeds reported different prices for the same equity more than 120 million times, with almost 64 million dislocation segments featuring meaningfully longer duration and higher magnitude. During this period, roughly 22% of all trades occurred while the SIP and aggregated direct feeds were dislocated. The current market configuration resulted in a realized opportunity cost totaling over $160 million, a conservative estimate that does not take into account intra-day offsetting events.

Simultaneous estimation of population receptive field and hemodynamic parameters from single point BOLD responses using Metropolis-Hastings sampling.

We introduce a new approach to Bayesian pRF model estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for simultaneous estimation of pRF and hemodynamic parameters. To obtain high performance on commonly accessible hardware we present a novel heuristic consisting of interpolation between precomputed responses for predetermined stimuli and a large cross-section of receptive field parameters. We investigate the validity of the proposed approach with respect to MCMC convergence, tuning and biases. We compare different combinations of pRF - Compressive Spatial Summation (CSS), Dumoulin-Wandell (DW) and hemodynamic (5-parameter and 3-parameter Balloon-Windkessel) models within our framework with and without the usage of the new heuristic. We evaluate estimation consistency and log probability across models. We perform as well a comparison of one model with and without lookup table within the RStan framework using its No-U-Turn Sampler. We present accelerated computation of whole-ROI parameters for one subject. Finally, we discuss risks and limitations associated with the usage of the new heuristic as well as the means of resolving them. We found that the new algorithm is a valid sampling approach to joint pRF/hemodynamic parameter estimation and that it exhibits very high performance.

A discrete event simulation to model the cost-utility of fingolimod and natalizumab in rapidly evolving severe relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: Two disease-modifying therapies are licensed in the EU for use in rapidly-evolving severe (RES) relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), fingolimod and natalizumab. Here a discrete event simulation (DES) model to analyze the cost-effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in the RES population, from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS) in the UK, is reported. METHODS: A DES model was developed to track individual RES patients, based on Expanded Disability Status Scale scores. Individual patient characteristics were taken from the RES sub-groups of the pivotal trials for fingolimod. Utility data were in line with previous models. Published costs were inflated to NHS cost year 2015. Owing to the confidential patient access scheme (PAS) discount applied to fingolimod in the UK, a range of discount levels were applied to the fingolimod list price, to capture the likelihood of natalizumab being cost-effective in a real-world setting. RESULTS: At the lower National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) threshold of £20,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY), fingolimod only required a discount greater than 0.8% of list price to be cost-effective. At the upper threshold of £30,000/QALY employed by the NICE, fingolimod was cost-effective if the confidential discount is greater than 2.5%. Sensitivity analyses conducted using fingolimod list-price showed the model to be most sensitive to changes in the cost of each drug, particularly fingolimod. CONCLUSIONS: The DES model shows that only a modest discount to the UK fingolimod list-price is required to make fingolimod a more cost-effective option than natalizumab in RES RRMS.