Hospitalization Risk Among Older Adults with Sensory Impairments: Development of a Prognostic Model.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a prognostic model for hospital admissions over a 1-year period among community-dwelling older adults with self-reported hearing and/or vision impairments based on readily obtainable clinical predictors. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey from 1999 to 2006. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries, aged 65 years and older, with self-reported hearing and/or vision impairment (N = 15,999). MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was any hospital admission over a predefined 1-year study period. Candidate predictors included demographic factors, prior healthcare utilization, comorbidities, functional impairment, and patient-level factors. We analyzed the association of all candidate predictors with any hospital admission over the 1-year study period using multivariable logistic regression. The final model was created using a penalized regression method known as the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. Model performance was assessed by discrimination (concordance statistic (c-statistic)) and calibration (evaluated graphically). Internal validation was performed via bootstrapping, and results were adjusted for overoptimism. RESULTS: Of the 15,999 participants, the mean age was 78 years and 55% were female. A total of 2,567 participants (16.0%) had at least one hospital admission in the 1-year study period. The final model included seven variables independently associated with hospitalization: number of inpatient admissions in the previous year, number of emergency department visits in the previous year, activities of daily living difficulty score, poor self-rated health, and self-reported history of myocardial infarction, stroke, and nonskin cancer. The c-statistic of the final model was 0.717. The optimism-corrected c-statistic after bootstrap internal validation was 0.716. A calibration plot suggested that the model tended to overestimate risk among patients at the highest risk for hospitalization. CONCLUSION: This prognostic model can help identify which community-dwelling older adults with sensory impairments are at highest risk for hospitalization and may inform allocation of healthcare resources.

Economic Analysis of Primary Care-Based Physical Activity Counseling in Older Men: The VA-LIFE Trial.

OBJECTIVES: To perform an economic evaluation of a primary care-based physical activity counseling intervention that improved physical activity levels and rapid gait speed in older veterans. DESIGN: Secondary objective of randomized trial that assessed the effect of exercise counseling (relative to usual care) on physical performance, physical activity, function, disability, and medical resource use and cost. SETTING: Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina. PARTICIPANTS: Male veterans aged ≥70 years (n = 398). INTERVENTION: An experienced health counselor provided baseline in-person exercise counseling, followed by telephone counseling at 2, 4, and 6 weeks, and monthly thereafter through one year. Each participant's primary care physician provided initial endorsement of the intervention, followed by monthly automated telephone messages tailored to the patient. Individualized progress reports were mailed quarterly. MEASUREMENTS: Intervention costs were assessed. Health care resource use and costs were estimated from enrollment through one year follow-up. The incremental cost of achieving clinically significant changes in major trial endpoints was calculated. RESULTS: The total direct cost of the intervention per participant was $459, 85% of which was counselor effort. With overhead, program cost totaled $696 per participant. Medical costs during follow-up reached $10,418 with the intervention, versus $12,052 with usual care (difference = -$1,634 (95% confidence interval = -$4,683 to $1,416; P = .29)). Expressed in terms of short-term clinical outcomes, the intervention cost $4,971 per additional patient reaching target exercise levels, or $4,640 per patient achieving a clinically significant change in rapid gait speed. CONCLUSION: Improvements in physical activity and rapid gait speed in the physical activity counseling group were obtained at a cost that represents a small fraction of patients' annual health care costs.

Expert panel consensus on assessment checklists for a rheumatology objective structured clinical examination.

OBJECTIVE: While several regional fellowship groups conduct rheumatology objective structured clinical examinations (ROSCEs), none have been validated for use across programs. We aimed to establish agreement among subspecialty experts regarding checklist items for several ROSCE stations. METHODS: We administered a 1-round survey to assess the importance of 173 assessment checklist items for 11 possible ROSCE stations. We e-mailed the survey to 127 rheumatology educators from across the US. Participants rated each item's importance on a 5-point Likert scale (1 = not important to 5 = very important). Consensus for high importance was predefined as a lower bound of the 95% confidence interval ≥4.0. RESULTS: Twenty-five individuals (20%) completed the expert panel survey. A total of 133 of the 173 items (77%) met statistical cutoff for consensus to retain. Several items that had population means of ≥4.0 but did not meet the predetermined definition for consensus were rejected. The percentage of retained items for individual stations ranged from 24% to 100%; all items were retained for core elements of patient counseling and radiograph interpretation tasks. Only 24% of items were retained for a rehabilitation medicine station and 60% for a microscope use/synovial fluid analysis station. CONCLUSION: This single-round expert panel survey established consensus on 133 items to assess on 11 proposed ROSCE stations. The method used in this study, which can engage a diverse geographic representation and employs rigorous statistical methods to establish checklist content agreement, can be used in any medical field.

Frailty predicts some but not all adverse outcomes in older adults discharged from the emergency department.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether frail older adults, based on a deficit accumulation index (DAI), are at greater risk of adverse outcomes after discharge from the emergency department (ED). DESIGN AND SETTING: Secondary analysis of data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey. PARTICIPANTS: One thousand eight hundred fifty-one community-dwelling Medicare fee-for-service enrollees, aged 65 and older who were discharged from the ED between January 2000 and September 2002. MEASUREMENTS: The primary dependent variable was time to first adverse outcome, defined as repeat outpatient ED visit, hospital admission, nursing home admission, or death, within 30 days of the index ED visit. RESULTS: Time to first adverse outcome was shortest in individuals with the highest number of accumulated deficits. The frailest participants were at greater risk of adverse outcomes after ED discharge than those who were least frail (hazard ratio (HR)=1.44, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.06-1.96). The frailest individuals were also at higher risk of serious adverse outcomes, defined as hospitalization, nursing home admission, or death (HR=1.98, 95% CI=1.29-3.05). In contrast, no association was detected between degree of frailty and repeat outpatient ED visits within 30 days (HR=1.06, 95% CI=0.73-1.54). CONCLUSION: The DAI as a construct of frailty was a robust predictor of serious adverse outcomes in the first 30 days after ED discharge. Frailty was not found to be a major determinant of repeat outpatient ED visits; therefore, additional study is needed to investigate this particular type of health service use by older adults.

Frequency and predictors of adverse health outcomes in older Medicare beneficiaries discharged from the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Older adults who are discharged from the emergency department (ED) may be at risk for subsequent adverse outcomes; however, this has not been fully investigated in national, population-based samples. The goal of this study was to determine the frequency and predictors of adverse outcomes among older adults discharged from the ED. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey. SUBJECTS: A total of 1851 community-dwelling, Medicare fee-for-service enrollees, >or=65 years old who were discharged from the ED between January 2000 and September 2002. MEASURES: The primary dependent variable was time to first adverse outcome defined as any repeat outpatient ED visit, hospital admission, nursing home admission or death within 90 days of the index ED visit. RESULTS: Six hundred twenty-three of 1851 subjects (32.9%) discharged from the ED experienced an adverse outcome within 90 days of the index visit; 17.2% returned to the ED but were not admitted, 18.3% were hospitalized, 2.6% were admitted to a nursing home, and 4.1% died. Patients who were older [hazard ratios (HR), 1.01; confidence interval (CI), 1.00-1.02], with more chronic health conditions (HR, 1.12; CI, 1.07-1.19), Medicaid insurance (HR, 1.42; CI, 1.11-1.82), and recent ED (HR, 1.46; CI, 1.17-1.82) or hospital use (HR, 1.80; CI, 1.50-2.17) were at particularly high risk. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of older Medicare beneficiaries in this study experienced an adverse outcome after ED discharge. Further study is needed to determine whether simple prediction tools based on these identified risk factors may be useful in predicting adverse outcomes in this vulnerable population.

Quality of pharmacotherapy and outcomes for older veterans discharged from the emergency department.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether suboptimal pharmacotherapy increases the risk of adverse outcomes in older adults discharged from the emergency department (ED). DESIGN: Retrospective, cohort study. SETTING: Academically affiliated Veterans Affairs Medical Center. PARTICIPANTS: Nine hundred forty-two veterans aged 65 and older discharged from the ED. MEASUREMENTS: The primary independent variable, suboptimal pharmacotherapy, was based on drugs-to-avoid criteria, drug-drug interactions, drug-disease interactions, or failure to satisfy explicit quality indicators (QIs). An adverse outcome was defined as one or more repeat ED visits or hospitalizations or death within 90 days of ED discharge. RESULTS: Four hundred twenty-one patients were prescribed a new medication at ED discharge. Of these, 134 (31.8%) had suboptimal pharmacotherapy; 49 (11.6%) were prescribed a drug to avoid, 53 (12.6%) received a drug that introduced a new drug-drug interaction, 24 (5.7%) were given a drug that introduced a drug-disease interaction, and 74 (17.6%) did not have a QI satisfied. Overall, 320 patients (34.0%) experienced an adverse outcome within 90 days. Multivariable analyses suggested a trend toward greater risk of adverse outcomes in patients with suboptimal pharmacotherapy (hazard ratio=1.32, 95% confidence interval=0.95, 1.84). CONCLUSION: A substantial number of older male veterans discharged from the ED may be at risk for adverse events due to suboptimal prescribing and inadequate medication monitoring. Efforts to improve the quality of pharmacotherapy in this vulnerable population are warranted.