Discrepancies in Mass Shootings and Access to Trauma Care Across the United States, 2014-2018.

INTRODUCTION: The United States has one of the highest rates of gun violence and mass shootings. Timely medical attention in such events is critical. The objective of this study was to assess geographic disparities in mass shootings and access to trauma centers. METHODS: Data for all Level I and II trauma centers were extracted from the American College of Surgeons and the Trauma Center Association of America registries. Mass shooting event data (4+ individuals shot at a single event) were taken from the Gun Violence Archive between 2014 and 2018. RESULTS: A total of 564 trauma centers and 1672 mass shootings were included. Ratios of the number of mass shootings vs trauma centers per state ranged from 0 to 11.0 mass shootings per trauma center. States with the greatest disparity (highest ratio) included Louisiana and New Mexico. CONCLUSION: States in the southern regions of the US experience the greatest disparity due to a high burden of mass shootings with less access to trauma centers. Interventions are needed to increase access to trauma care and reduce mass shootings in these medically underserved areas.

The National Health Service urgent cancer referral pathway for suspected urological cancers: early economic evaluation of a risk prediction test.

OBJECTIVES: In the UK, the number of patients urgently referred for suspected cancer is increasing, and providers are struggling to cope with demand. We explore the potential cost-effectiveness of a new risk prediction test - the PinPoint test - to triage and prioritize patients urgently referred with suspected urological cancers. METHODS: Two simulation models were developed to reflect the diagnostic pathways for patients with (i) suspected prostate cancer, and (ii) bladder or kidney cancer, comparing the PinPoint test to current practice. An early economic analysis was conducted from a UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. The primary outcomes were the percentage of individuals seen within 2 weeks and health care costs. An exploratory analysis was conducted to understand the potential impact of the Pinpoint test on quality-adjusted life years gained. RESULTS: Across both models and applications, the PinPoint test led to more individuals with urological cancer being seen within 2 weeks. Using PinPoint only to prioritize patients led to increased costs overall, whereas using PinPoint to both triage and prioritize patients led to cost savings. The estimated impact on life years gained/lost was very small and highly uncertain. CONCLUSIONS: Using the PinPoint test to prioritize urgent referrals meant that more individuals with urological cancer were seen within 2 weeks, but at additional cost to the NHS. If used as a triage and prioritization tool, the PinPoint test shortens wait times for referred individuals and is cost saving. More data on the impact of short-term delays to diagnosis on health-related quality of life is needed.

An exploratory assessment of the impact of a novel risk assessment test on breast cancer clinic waiting times and workflow: a discrete event simulation model.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer clinics across the UK have long been struggling to cope with high demand. Novel risk prediction tools - such as the PinPoint test - could help to reduce unnecessary clinic referrals. Using early data on the expected accuracy of the test, we explore the potential impact of PinPoint on: (a) the percentage of patients meeting the two-week referral target, and (b) the number of clinic 'overspill' appointments generated (i.e. patients having to return to the clinic to complete their required investigations). METHODS: A simulation model was built to reflect the annual flow of patients through a single UK clinic. Due to current uncertainty around the exact impact of PinPoint testing on standard care, two primary scenarios were assessed. Scenario 1 assumed complete GP adherence to testing, with only non-referred cancerous cases returning for delayed referral. Scenario 2 assumed GPs would overrule 20% of low-risk results, and that 10% of non-referred non-cancerous cases would also return for delayed referral. A range of sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the impact of key uncertainties on the model results. Service reconfiguration scenarios, removing individual weekly clinics from the clinic schedule, were also explored. RESULTS: Under standard care, 66.3% (95% CI: 66.0 to 66.5) of patients met the referral target, with 1,685 (1,648 to 1,722) overspill appointments. Under both PinPoint scenarios, > 98% of patients met the referral target, with overspill appointments reduced to between 727 (707 to 746) [Scenario 1] and 886 (861 to 911) [Scenario 2]. The reduced clinic demand was sufficient to allow removal of one weekly low-capacity clinic [N = 10], and the results were robust to sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: The findings from this early analysis indicate that risk prediction tools could have the potential to alleviate pressure on cancer clinics, and are expected to have increased utility in the wake of heightened pressures resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Further research is required to validate these findings with real world evidence; evaluate the broader clinical and economic impact of the test; and to determine outcomes and risks for patients deemed to be low-risk on the PinPoint test and therefore not initially referred.

Gender disparities among medical students choosing to pursue careers in medical research: a secondary cross-sectional cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Though the proportion of women in medical schools has increased, gender disparities among those who pursue research careers still exists. In this study, we seek to better understand the main factors contributing to the existing gender disparities among medical students choosing to pursue careers in medical research. METHODS: A secondary cross-sectional cohort analysis of previously published data was conducted using a 70-item survey that was sent to 16,418 medical students at 32 academic medical centers, and was IRB exempt from the need for ethical approval at the University of Illinois at Chicago and the University of Pennsylvania. Data was collected from September 2012 to December 2014. Survey results were analyzed using chi-square tests and Cramer's V to determine gender differences in demographic characteristics (training stage, race/ethnicity, marital status, parental status, financial support, and parental career background), career sector choice, career content choice, specialty choice, foreseeable career obstacles, and perceptions about medical research careers. RESULTS: Female respondents were more likely to be enrolled in MD-only programs, while male respondents were more likely to be enrolled in MD/PhD programs. More male students selected academia as their first-choice career sector, while more female respondents selected hospitalist as their first-choice career sector. More female respondents identified patient care and opportunities for community service as their top career selection factors, while more male respondents identified research and teaching as their top career selection factors. Student loan burden, future compensation, and work/life balance were the most reported obstacles to pursuing a career in medical research. CONCLUSIONS: There are many factors from a medical student's perspective that may contribute to the existing gender disparities in pursuing a career in medical research. While much progress has been made in attracting nearly equal numbers of men and women to the field of medicine, active efforts to bridge the gap between men and women in medical research careers are needed.

Integrating Early Economic Evaluation into Target Product Profile development for medical tests: advantages and potential applications.

Target Product Profiles (TPPs) outline the characteristics that new health technologies require to address an unmet clinical need. To date, published TPPs for medical tests have focused on infectious diseases, mostly in the context of low- and middle-income countries. Recently, there have been calls for a broader use of TPPs as a mechanism to ensure that diagnostic innovation is aligned with clinical needs, yet the methodology underpinning TPP development remains suboptimal. Here, we propose that early economic evaluation (EEE) should be integrated within the TPP methodology to create a more rigorous framework for the development of "fit-for-purpose" tests. We discuss the potential benefits that EEE could bring to the core activities underpinning TPP development-scoping, drafting, consensus building, and updating-and argue that using EEE to help inform TPPs provides a more objective, evidence-based, and transparent approach to defining test specifications.

A computer vision approach to improving cattle digestive health by the monitoring of faecal samples.

The digestive health of cows is one of the primary factors that determine their well-being and productivity. Under- and over-feeding are both commonplace in the beef and dairy industry; leading to welfare issues, negative environmental impacts, and economic losses. Unfortunately, digestive health is difficult for farmers to routinely monitor in large farms due to many factors including the need to transport faecal samples to a laboratory for compositional analysis. This paper describes a novel means for monitoring digestive health via a low-cost and easy to use imaging device based on computer vision. The method involves the rapid capture of multiple visible and near-infrared images of faecal samples. A novel three-dimensional analysis algorithm is then applied to objectively score the condition of the sample based on its geometrical features. While there is no universal ground truth for comparison of results, the order of scores matched a qualitative human prediction very closely. The algorithm is also able to detect the presence of undigested fibres and corn kernels using a deep learning approach. Detection rates for corn and fibre in image regions were of the order 90%. These results indicate the potential to develop this system for on-farm, real time monitoring of the digestive health of individual animals, allowing early intervention to effectively adjust feeding strategy.

Did the Affordable Care Act Reach Penetrating Trauma Patients?

BACKGROUND: The benefits of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) for trauma patients have been well established. However, the ACA's impact on penetrating trauma patients (PTPs), a population that is historically young and uninsured, has not been defined. We hypothesized that PTPs in the post-ACA era would have better outcomes. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) was queried for all PTPs from 2009 (pre-ACA) and 2011-2014 (post-ACA). Subset analysis was performed in patients aged 19-25 y, as this group was eligible for the ACA's dependent care provision (DCP). RESULTS: There were 9,714,471 patients in the study, with 2,053,501 (21.1%) pre-ACA and 7,660,970 (78.9%) post-ACA. When compared to pre-ACA, patients in the post-ACA cohort were more likely to have commercial/private insurance, less likely to have Medicaid, and more likely to be uninsured. On logistic regression, the pre-ACA era was associated with mortality (HR: 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01-1.04, P = 0.004). Being uninsured was associated with mortality (HR: 1.89, 95% CI: 1.87-1.92, P < 0.001). On subset analysis of the DCP age group, post-ACA patients were more likely to be uninsured (24.1% versus 17.6%; P < 0.001). In addition, for the DCP age group, pre-ACA era was not associated with mortality (HR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.99-1.06, P = 0.20). CONCLUSIONS: Although the ACA provided a survival benefit to PTPs overall, it did not increase insurance coverage for this population. In addition, the DCP of the ACA did not improve insurance access for PTP in the eligible age group. Further efforts are needed to extend insurance access to this population.

The impact of intestinal transplantation on quality of life.

INTRODUCTION: Intestinal failure (IF) and intestinal transplant (ITx) are associated with poor quality of life (QoL). Disease-specific assessment of QoL for IF and ITx is challenging, owing to the different problems encountered. We have sought to compare QoL pre-ITx with post-ITx and have compared generic QoL with a stable IF population. METHODS: Two prospectively maintained databases of patients referred for and undergoing ITx and a chronic (Type 2 & 3) IF cohort were interrogated. QoL instruments used were generic (EQ-5D-5L and SF-36) and disease-specific (HPN-QOL and ITx-QOL). Analysis used Student's t-test and one-way ANOVA with Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons. Data were collected pre- and post-ITx at 3, 6, 12-months and yearly thereafter. RESULTS: All QoL instruments improved following ITx to levels comparable with a cohort of stable IF patients not requiring ITx. Both the visual analogue score component (EQ-5D-5L) and the effect of underlying illness on QoL (HPN-QOL/ITx-QOL) were higher following ITx than either pre-ITx or when compared with the IF cohort. Effects on general health, ability to eat and drink, to holiday and travel were improved as early as 3 months post-ITx. Other components did not before 6-12 months following ITx, but were maintained to at least 24 months. Patient personal financial pressures are greater following ITx, even in a publicly funded healthcare system. CONCLUSION: ITx has beneficial effects on QoL compared to those assessed for or awaiting ITx. QoL following ITx is similar to patients with IF not requiring ITx. A QoL instrument that covers the journey of patients from IF through ITx would assist longitudinal analysis of the value and timing of ITx at an individual level.

Early Economic Evaluation of Diagnostic Technologies: Experiences of the NIHR Diagnostic Evidence Co-operatives.

Diagnostic tests are expensive and time-consuming to develop. Early economic evaluation using decision modeling can reduce commercial risk by providing early evidence on cost-effectiveness. The National Institute for Health Research Diagnostic Evidence Co-operatives (DECs) was established to catalyze evidence generation for diagnostic tests by collaborating with commercial developers; DEC researchers have consequently made extensive use of early modeling. The aim of this article is to summarize the experiences of the DECs using early modeling for diagnostics. We draw on 8 case studies to illustrate the methods, highlight methodological strengths and weaknesses particular to diagnostics, and provide advice. The case studies covered diagnosis, screening, and treatment stratification. Treatment effectiveness was a crucial determinant of cost-effectiveness in all cases, but robust evidence to inform this parameter was sparse. This risked limiting the usability of the results, although characterization of this uncertainty in turn highlighted the value of further evidence generation. Researchers evaluating early models must be aware of the importance of treatment effect evidence when reviewing the cost-effectiveness of diagnostics. Researchers planning to develop an early model of a test should also 1) consult widely with clinicians to ensure the model reflects real-world patient care; 2) develop comprehensive models that can be updated as the technology develops, rather than taking a "quick and dirty" approach that may risk producing misleading results; and 3) use flexible methods of reviewing evidence and evaluating model results, to fit the needs of multiple decision makers. Decision models can provide vital information for developers at an early stage, although limited evidence mean researchers should proceed with caution.

Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors in Child and Adolescent Health, 1990 to 2017: Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2017 Study.

Importance: Understanding causes and correlates of health loss among children and adolescents can identify areas of success, stagnation, and emerging threats and thereby facilitate effective improvement strategies. Objective: To estimate mortality and morbidity in children and adolescents from 1990 to 2017 by age and sex in 195 countries and territories. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study examined levels, trends, and spatiotemporal patterns of cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes using standardized approaches to data processing and statistical analysis. It also describes epidemiologic transitions by evaluating historical associations between disease indicators and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and fertility. Data collected from 1990 to 2017 on children and adolescents from birth through 19 years of age in 195 countries and territories were assessed. Data analysis occurred from January 2018 to August 2018. Exposures: Being under the age of 20 years between 1990 and 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: Death and disability. All-cause and cause-specific deaths, disability-adjusted life years, years of life lost, and years of life lived with disability. Results: Child and adolescent deaths decreased 51.7% from 13.77 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 13.60-13.93 million) in 1990 to 6.64 million (95% UI, 6.44-6.87 million) in 2017, but in 2017, aggregate disability increased 4.7% to a total of 145 million (95% UI, 107-190 million) years lived with disability globally. Progress was uneven, and inequity increased, with low-SDI and low-middle-SDI locations experiencing 82.2% (95% UI, 81.6%-82.9%) of deaths, up from 70.9% (95% UI, 70.4%-71.4%) in 1990. The leading disaggregated causes of disability-adjusted life years in 2017 in the low-SDI quintile were neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, diarrhea, malaria, and congenital birth defects, whereas neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, headache, dermatitis, and anxiety were highest-ranked in the high-SDI quintile. Conclusions and Relevance: Mortality reductions over this 27-year period mean that children are more likely than ever to reach their 20th birthdays. The concomitant expansion of nonfatal health loss and epidemiological transition in children and adolescents, especially in low-SDI and middle-SDI countries, has the potential to increase already overburdened health systems, will affect the human capital potential of societies, and may influence the trajectory of socioeconomic development. Continued monitoring of child and adolescent health loss is crucial to sustain the progress of the past 27 years.

Multiscale socio-ecological networks in the age of information.

Interactions between people and ecological systems, through leisure or tourism activities, form a complex socio-ecological spatial network. The analysis of the benefits people derive from their interactions with nature-also referred to as cultural ecosystem services (CES)-enables a better understanding of these socio-ecological systems. In the age of information, the increasing availability of large social media databases enables a better understanding of complex socio-ecological interactions at an unprecedented spatio-temporal resolution. Within this context, we model and analyze these interactions based on information extracted from geotagged photographs embedded into a multiscale socio-ecological network. We apply this approach to 16 case study sites in Europe using a social media database (Flickr) containing more than 150,000 validated and classified photographs. After evaluating the representativeness of the network, we investigate the impact of visitors' origin on the distribution of socio-ecological interactions at different scales. First at a global scale, we develop a spatial measure of attractiveness and use this to identify four groups of sites. Then, at a local scale, we explore how the distance traveled by the users to reach a site affects the way they interact with this site in space and time. The approach developed here, integrating social media data into a network-based framework, offers a new way of visualizing and modeling interactions between humans and landscapes. Results provide valuable insights for understanding relationships between social demands for CES and the places of their realization, thus allowing for the development of more efficient conservation and planning strategies.

The future for diagnostic tests of acute kidney injury in critical care: evidence synthesis, care pathway analysis and research prioritisation.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is highly prevalent in hospital inpatient populations, leading to significant mortality and morbidity, reduced quality of life and high short- and long-term health-care costs for the NHS. New diagnostic tests may offer an earlier diagnosis or improved care, but evidence of benefit to patients and of value to the NHS is required before national adoption. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the potential for AKI in vitro diagnostic tests to enhance the NHS care of patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and identify an efficient supporting research strategy. DATA SOURCES: We searched ClinicalTrials.gov, The Cochrane Library databases, Embase, Health Management Information Consortium, International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, MEDLINE, metaRegister of Current Controlled Trials, PubMed and Web of Science databases from their inception dates until September 2014 (review 1), November 2015 (review 2) and July 2015 (economic model). Details of databases used for each review and coverage dates are listed in the main report. REVIEW METHODS: The AKI-Diagnostics project included horizon scanning, systematic reviewing, meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity, appraisal of analytical validity, care pathway analysis, model-based lifetime economic evaluation from a UK NHS perspective and value of information (VOI) analysis. RESULTS: The horizon-scanning search identified 152 potential tests and biomarkers. Three tests, Nephrocheck® (Astute Medical, Inc., San Diego, CA, USA), NGAL and cystatin C, were subjected to detailed review. The meta-analysis was limited by variable reporting standards, study quality and heterogeneity, but sensitivity was between 0.54 and 0.92 and specificity was between 0.49 and 0.95 depending on the test. A bespoke critical appraisal framework demonstrated that analytical validity was also poorly reported in many instances. In the economic model the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from £11,476 to £19,324 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), with a probability of cost-effectiveness between 48% and 54% when tests were compared with current standard care. LIMITATIONS: The major limitation in the evidence on tests was the heterogeneity between studies in the definitions of AKI and the timing of testing. CONCLUSIONS: Diagnostic tests for AKI in the ICU offer the potential to improve patient care and add value to the NHS, but cost-effectiveness remains highly uncertain. Further research should focus on the mechanisms by which a new test might change current care processes in the ICU and the subsequent cost and QALY implications. The VOI analysis suggested that further observational research to better define the prevalence of AKI developing in the ICU would be worthwhile. A formal randomised controlled trial of biomarker use linked to a standardised AKI care pathway is necessary to provide definitive evidence on whether or not adoption of tests by the NHS would be of value. STUDY REGISTRATION: The systematic review within this study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014013919. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

The Role of Measurement Uncertainty in Health Technology Assessments (HTAs) of In Vitro Tests.

INTRODUCTION: Numerous factors contribute to uncertainty in test measurement procedures, and this uncertainty can have a significant impact on the downstream clinical utility and cost-effectiveness of testing strategies. Currently, however, there is no clear guidance concerning if or how such factors should be considered within Health Technology Assessments (HTAs) of tests. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to provide an introduction to key concepts in measurement uncertainty for the HTA community and to explore, via systematic review, current methods utilised within HTAs. METHODS: HTAs of in vitro tests including a model-based economic evaluation were identified via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (CRD) HTA database and key reimbursement authority websites. Data were extracted to explore the specific components of measurement uncertainty assessed and methods utilised. The findings were narratively synthesised. RESULTS: Of 107 identified HTAs, 20 (19%) attempted to assess components of measurement uncertainty: 15 did so via some form of pre-model assessment (such as a literature review or laboratory survey); four also included components within the economic model; and one considered measurement uncertainty within the model only. One study quantified the impact of measurement uncertainty on cost-effectiveness and found that this parameter significantly changed the results, but did not impact the overall decision uncertainty. CONCLUSION: A minority of HTAs identified from this review used various approaches to assess and/or incorporate the impact of measurement uncertainty, indicating that these assessments are feasible. Uncertainty remains around best practice methodology for conducting such analyses; further research is required to ensure that future HTAs are fit for purpose.

Value of Information Analysis of Multiparameter Tests for Chemotherapy in Early Breast Cancer: The OPTIMA Prelim Trial.

BACKGROUND: Precision medicine is heralded as offering more effective treatments to smaller targeted patient populations. In breast cancer, adjuvant chemotherapy is standard for patients considered as high-risk after surgery. Molecular tests may identify patients who can safely avoid chemotherapy. OBJECTIVES: To use economic analysis before a large-scale clinical trial of molecular testing to confirm the value of the trial and help prioritize between candidate tests as randomized comparators. METHODS: Women with surgically treated breast cancer (estrogen receptor-positive and lymph node-positive or tumor size ≥30 mm) were randomized to standard care (chemotherapy for all) or test-directed care using Oncotype DX™. Additional testing was undertaken using alternative tests: MammaPrintTM, PAM-50 (ProsignaTM), MammaTyperTM, IHC4, and IHC4-AQUA™ (NexCourse Breast™). A probabilistic decision model assessed the cost-effectiveness of all tests from a UK perspective. Value of information analysis determined the most efficient publicly funded ongoing trial design in the United Kingdom. RESULTS: There was an 86% probability of molecular testing being cost-effective, with most tests producing cost savings (range -£1892 to £195) and quality-adjusted life-year gains (range 0.17-0.20). There were only small differences in costs and quality-adjusted life-years between tests. Uncertainty was driven by long-term outcomes. Value of information demonstrated value of further research into all tests, with Prosigna currently being the highest priority for further research. CONCLUSIONS: Molecular tests are likely to be cost-effective, but an optimal test is yet to be identified. Health economics modeling to inform the design of a randomized controlled trial looking at diagnostic technology has been demonstrated to be feasible as a method for improving research efficiency.

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness results from the randomised, Phase IIB trial in previously untreated patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia to compare fludarabine, cyclophosphamide and rituximab with fludarabine, cyclophosphamide, mitoxantrone and low-dose rituximab: the Attenuated dose Rituximab with ChemoTherapy In Chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (ARCTIC) trial.

BACKGROUND: The conventional frontline therapy for fit patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) is fludarabine, cyclophosphamide and rituximab (FCR). Rituximab (Mabthera®, Roche Products Ltd) targets the CD20 antigen, which is expressed at low levels in CLL. The standard dose of rituximab in CLL (375 mg/m2 in cycle 1 and 500 mg/m2 in cycles 2-6) was selected based on toxicity data only. Small doses of rituximab (as low as 20 mg) have biological activity in CLL, with an immediate reduction in circulating CLL cells and down-regulation of CD20. Phase II trials had suggested improved efficacy with the addition of mitoxantrone to FCR. The key assumption for the Attenuated dose Rituximab with ChemoTherapy In CLL (ARCTIC) trial was that the addition of mitoxantrone to fludarabine, cyclophosphamide and low-dose rituximab would be more effective than conventional FCR. OBJECTIVES: To assess whether fludarabine, cyclophosphamide, mitoxantrone and low-dose rituximab (FCM-miniR) (100 mg of rituximab per cycle) was non-inferior to FCR in frontline CLL. Complete response (CR) rate was the primary end point, with the secondary end points being progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), overall response rate, eradication of minimal residual disease (MRD), safety and cost-effectiveness. DESIGN: ARCTIC was a UK multicentre, randomised, controlled, open, Phase IIB non-inferiority trial in previously untreated CLL. A total of 206 patients with previously untreated CLL who required treatment, according to the International Workshop on Chronic Lymphocytic Leukaemia criteria, were to be randomised to FCR or FCM-miniR. There was an independent Data Monitoring and Ethics Committee (DMEC) with a pre-planned interim efficacy assessment on 103 participants. RESULTS: The DMEC's interim analysis led to early trial closure. Although the response rates in both arms were higher than anticipated, FCM-miniR had a lower CR rate than FCR. This was partly attributable to the higher toxicity associated with mitoxantrone. A total of 100 participants completed FCR, 79 completed FCM-miniR and 21 commenced FCM-miniR but switched to FCR following DMEC recommendations. The CR rate for participants receiving FCR was 76%, compared with 55% for FCM-miniR (adjusted odds ratio 0.37; 95% confidence interval 0.19 to 0.73). Key secondary end points also showed that FCR was superior, with more participants achieving MRD negativity (57% for FCR vs. 46% for FCM-miniR). More participants experienced a serious adverse reaction with FCM-miniR compared with FCR (50% vs. 41%). At a median of 37.3 months' follow-up, the PFS and OS rates are good compared with previous studies, with no significant difference between the treatment arms. The economic analysis indicates that because FCM-miniR is less effective than FCR, FCM-miniR is not expected to be cost-effective over a lifetime horizon, producing a mean cost-saving of -£7723, a quality-adjusted life-year loss of -0.73 and a resulting incremental net monetary loss of -£6780. CONCLUSIONS: FCM-miniR is less well tolerated, with poorer response rates, than FCR, partly owing to the additional toxicity associated with mitoxantrone. In view of this, FCM-miniR will not be taken forward into a larger definitive Phase III trial. The trial demonstrated that oral FCR yields extremely high response rates compared with historical series with intravenous chemotherapy. FUTURE WORK: We shall compare the results of ARCTIC with those of the ADMIRE (Does the ADdition of Mitoxantrone Improve Response to FCR chemotherapy in patients with CLL?) trial, which compared FCR with FCM-R to assess the efficacy of low- versus standard-dose rituximab, allowing for the toxicity associated with mitoxantrone. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16544962. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 21, No. 28. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

PET-NECK: a multicentre randomised Phase III non-inferiority trial comparing a positron emission tomography-computerised tomography-guided watch-and-wait policy with planned neck dissection in the management of locally advanced (N2/N3) nodal metastases in patients with squamous cell head and neck cancer.

BACKGROUND: Planned neck dissection (ND) after radical chemoradiotherapy (CRT) for locally advanced nodal metastases in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) remains controversial. Thirty per cent of ND specimens show histological evidence of tumour. Consequently, a significant proportion of clinicians still practise planned ND. Fludeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET)-computerised tomography (CT) scanning demonstrated high negative predictive values for persistent nodal disease, providing a possible alternative paradigm to ND. Evidence is sparse and drawn mainly from retrospective single-institution studies, illustrating the need for a prospective randomised controlled trial. OBJECTIVES: To determine the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of PET-CT-guided surveillance, compared with planned ND, in a multicentre, prospective, randomised setting. DESIGN: A pragmatic randomised non-inferiority trial comparing PET-CT-guided watch-and-wait policy with the current planned ND policy in HNSCC patients with locally advanced nodal metastases and treated with radical CRT. Patients were randomised in a 1 : 1 ratio. Primary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and cost-effectiveness [incremental cost per incremental quality-adjusted life-year (QALY)]. Cost-effectiveness was assessed over the trial period using individual patient data, and over a lifetime horizon using a decision-analytic model. Secondary outcomes were recurrence in the neck, complication rates and quality of life. The recruitment of 560 patients was planned to detect non-inferior OS in the intervention arm with a 90% power and a type I error of 5%, with non-inferiority defined as having a hazard ratio (HR) of no higher than 1.50. An intention-to-treat analysis was performed by Cox's proportional hazards model. SETTINGS: Thirty-seven head and neck cancer-treating centres (43 NHS hospitals) throughout the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with locally advanced nodal metastases of oropharynx, hypopharynx, larynx, oral or occult HNSCC receiving CRT and fit for ND were recruited. INTERVENTION: Patients randomised to planned ND before or after CRT (control), or CRT followed by fludeoxyglucose PET-CT 10-12 weeks post CRT with ND only if PET-CT showed incomplete or equivocal response of nodal disease (intervention). Balanced by centre, planned ND timing, CRT schedule, disease site and the tumour, node, metastasis stage. RESULTS: In total, 564 patients were recruited (ND arm, n = 282; and surveillance arm, n = 282; 17% N2a, 61% N2b, 18% N2c and 3% N3). Eighty-four per cent had oropharyngeal cancer. Seventy-five per cent of tested cases were p16 positive. The median time to follow-up was 36 months. The HR for OS was 0.92 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65 to 1.32], indicating non-inferiority. The upper limit of the non-inferiority HR margin of 1.50, which was informed by patient advisors to the project, lies at the 99.6 percentile of this estimate (p = 0.004). There were no differences in this result by p16 status. There were 54 NDs performed in the surveillance arm, with 22 surgical complications, and 221 NDs in the ND arm, with 85 complications. Quality-of-life scores were slightly better in the surveillance arm. Compared with planned ND, PET-CT surveillance produced an incremental net health benefit of 0.16 QALYs (95% CI 0.03 to 0.28 QALYs) over the trial period and 0.21 QALYs (95% CI -0.41 to 0.85 QALYs) over the modelled lifetime horizon. LIMITATIONS: Pragmatic randomised controlled trial with a 36-month median follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: PET-CT-guided active surveillance showed similar survival outcomes to ND but resulted in considerably fewer NDs, fewer complications and lower costs, supporting its use in routine practice. FUTURE WORK: PET-CT surveillance is cost-effective in the short term, and long-term cost-effectiveness could be addressed in future work. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN13735240. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 21, No. 17. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Mental health care for Indigenous young people: moving culture from the margins to the centre.

OBJECTIVE: Recently, Indigenous academics have evolved an Indigenist discourse that centralises Indigenous 'ways of knowing, being and doing'. Through this dialogue, Indigenous 'ways of knowing and being' augment Western biopsychosocial treatments. METHODS: This paper outlines the authors' clinical encounters with young people from the Koori community and ongoing consultation with Koori community Elders in Victoria that led to engaging young people and their families in an Indigenist dialogue. RESULTS: The Indigenist dialogue facilitates deeper engagement in the therapeutic process, opportunities to mirror and reflect on young people's experiences, and drawing parallels between Western health interventions and Aboriginal cultural ways of doing health and being healthy. CONCLUSIONS: The young people and their families evince greater faith in the management process and a deeper focus, centred awareness and knowledge of their Cultural rights and responsibilities. Future developments should include a systematic database with qualitative and quantitative data to support its evaluation and iterative development and improved community engagement to ensure holistic health gains are maintained.

EARLY COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS OF NEW MEDICAL TESTS: RESPONSE.

As strong advocates and adopters of early cost-effectiveness modeling for test evaluation, we were excited to see the recent article "The Early Bird Catches the Worm: Early Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of New Medical Tests," in which Buisman and colleagues present a succinct and generalizable framework for conducting this type of analysis. The authors have done an excellent job in identifying and summarizing the key components of this methodology, as well as highlighting fundamental differences between early analyses versus the traditional late-stage approach. As the number of medical tests coming to market continues to grow, there is an ever growing need to develop rigorous methodology in this area, and we commend the authors for this timely work.