Characteristics of road traffic mortality and distribution of healthcare resources in Thailand.

Road traffic mortalities (RTMs), a leading cause of death globally, mostly occur in low- and middle-income countries, and having sufficient healthcare resources could lower the number of these fatalities. Our study aimed to illustrate the incidence of RTMs per 100,000 population and to compare the distribution of healthcare resources from 2011 to 2021 with rates of RTMs in the 77 provinces of Thailand. We divided the population into adults (≥ 15 years) and children (0-14 years). Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient were used to measure the level of distribution and equality of hospital resources and in relation to RTMs across the country. The average number of deaths was 30.34 per 100,000 per year, with male predominance. The RTM rates for adults and children were 32.71 and 19.08 per 100,000 respectively, and motorcycle accidents accounted for the largest percentage of deaths across all age groups. The Gini coefficient showed that operating rooms (0.42) were the least equally distributed hospital resource, while physicians were the most equally distributed (0.34). Anomalies were identified between the distribution of RTMs and available hospital resources. We hope our study will be beneficial in reallocating these resources more fairly to reflect the different numbers of traffic accidents in each province with the aim of reducing lower traffic-related deaths.

Thirty-Day Readmission and Cost Analysis in Patients With Cirrhosis: A Nationwide Population-Based Data.

Accurate population-based data are needed on the rate, economic impact, and the long-term outcomes of readmission among patients with cirrhosis. To examine the rates, costs, and 1-year outcomes of patients readmitted within 30 days following their index hospitalization for complications of cirrhosis, we conducted a nationwide, population-based cohort study involving all patients with cirrhosis in Thailand from 2009 through 2013, using data from the National Health Security Office databases, which included those from nationwide hospitalizations. Readmission was captured from hospitals at all health care levels across the country within the Universal Coverage Scheme. For the 134,038 patients hospitalized with cirrhosis, the overall 30-day readmission rate was 17%. Common causes of readmission consisted of complications of portal hypertension (47%) and infections (17%). After adjusting for multiple covariates, predictors of 30-day readmission included hepatocellular carcinoma (odds ratio [OR] 1.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.84-2.06), human immunodeficiency virus-related admission (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.51-2.17) and cholangiocarcinoma (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.3-2.05). In all, 2,936 deaths (13%) occurred during readmission, and an additional 14,425 deaths up to 1 year (63.5% total mortality among readmitted patients). Causes of death were mostly from liver-related mortality. Average cost at index admission for those with a 30-day readmission were significantly higher than those readmitted beyond 30 days or not readmitted. Conclusions: Patients hospitalized with cirrhosis complications had high rates of unscheduled 30-day readmission. Average hospitalization costs were high, and only 36.5% of patients readmitted within 30 days survived at 1 year.

Evaluation of aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index and fibrosis 4 scores for hepatic fibrosis assessment compared with transient elastography in chronic hepatitis C patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Fibrotic stage (FS) assessment is essential in chronic hepatitis C treatment cascade. Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) using transient elastography (TE) is reliable and correlated with liver biopsy. However, TE may not be widely available. This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performances of aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) and fibrosis 4 (FIB-4) scores compared with TE. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, cross-sectional study, including all chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) monoinfection patients with successful and reliable LSM, at 10 centers in Thailand from 2012 to 2017. Characteristics and laboratory data within 3 months of TE were retrospectively reviewed. Using TE as a reference standard, the diagnostic performances of APRI and FIB-4 were evaluated. TE cut-off levels of 7.1 and 12.5 kPa represented significant fibrosis (SF) and cirrhosis, respectively. RESULTS: The distribution of FS by TE in 2000 eligible patients was as follows: no SF 28.3%, SF 31.4%, and cirrhosis 40.3%. APRI ≥ 1 provided 70.1% sensitivity and 80.6% specificity, with an area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUROC) of 0.834 for cirrhosis. The specificity increased to 96.3% when using a cut-off level of APRI ≥ 2. FIB-4 ≥ 1.45 provided a sensitivity, specificity, and AUROC of 52.4%, 91.0%, and 0.829 for cirrhosis, respectively. For SF, APRI performed better than FIB-4, with an AUROC of 0.84 versus 0.80 (P < 0.001). APRI score < 0.5 and FIB-4 score > 1.45 yielded sensitivities of 82.3% and 74.4% and specificities of 65.4% and 69.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: APRI and FIB-4 scores had good diagnostic performances for FS assessment compared with TE, especially for cirrhosis. APRI may be used as the noninvasive assessment in resource-limited settings for HCV patients' management.

A Population Dynamic Model to Assess the Diabetes Screening and Reporting Programs and Project the Burden of Undiagnosed Diabetes in Thailand.

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is rising worldwide, exacerbated by aging populations. We estimated and predicted the diabetes burden and mortality due to undiagnosed diabetes together with screening program efficacy and reporting completeness in Thailand, in the context of demographic changes. An age and sex structured dynamic model including demographic and diagnostic processes was constructed. The model was validated using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The prevalence of DM was predicted to increase from 6.5% (95% credible interval: 6.3-6.7%) in 2015 to 10.69% (10.4-11.0%) in 2035, with the largest increase (72%) among 60 years or older. Out of the total DM cases in 2015, the percentage of undiagnosed DM cases was 18.2% (17.4-18.9%), with males higher than females (p-value < 0.01). The highest group with undiagnosed DM was those aged less than 39 years old, 74.2% (73.7-74.7%). The mortality of undiagnosed DM was ten-fold greater than the mortality of those with diagnosed DM. The estimated coverage of diabetes positive screening programs was ten-fold greater for elderly compared to young. The positive screening rate among females was estimated to be significantly higher than those in males. Of the diagnoses, 87.4% (87.0-87.8%) were reported. Targeting screening programs and good reporting systems will be essential to reduce the burden of disease.

The incidence, etiologies, outcomes, and predictors of mortality of acute liver failure in Thailand: a population-base study.

BACKGROUND: Acute liver failure (ALF) is uncommon but progresses rapidly with high mortality. We investigated the incidence, etiologies, outcomes, and predictive factors for 30-day mortality in patients with ALF. METHODS: We conducted a population-based study of ALF patients hospitalized between 2009 and 2013 from the Thai Nationwide Hospital Admission database, which comprises 76% of all admissions from 858 hospitals across 77 provinces in Thailand. ALF was diagnosed using ICD-10 codes K72.0 and K71.11. Patients with liver cirrhosis were excluded. RESULTS: There were 20,589 patients diagnosed with ALF during the study period with 12,277 (59.6%) males and mean age of 46.6 ± 20.7 years. The incidence of ALF was 62.9 per million population per year. The most frequent causes of ALF were indeterminate (69.4%), non-acetaminophen drug-induced (26.1%), and viral hepatitis (2.5%). Acetaminophen was the presumptive cause in 1.7% of patients. There were 5502 patients (26.7%) who died within 30 days after admission. One patient (0.005%) underwent liver transplantation. The average hospital stay was 8.7 ± 13.9 days, and the total cost of management was 1075.2 ± 2718.9 USD per admission. The most prevalent complications were acute renal failure (ARF)(24.2%), septicemia (18.2%), and pneumonia (12.3%). The most influential predictive factors for 30-day mortality were ARF (HR = 3.64, 95% CI: 3.43-3.87, p < 0.001), malignant infiltration of the liver (HR = 3.37, 95% CI: 2.94-3.85, p < 0.001), and septicemia (HR = 1.96, 95%CI: 1.84-2.08, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: ALF patients have poor outcomes with 30-day mortality of 26.7% and high economic burden. Indeterminate etiology is the most frequent cause. ARF, malignant infiltration of the liver, and septicemia are main predictors of 30-day mortality.

Factors affecting mortality and resource use for hospitalized patients with cirrhosis: A population-based study.

Hospitalizations for advanced liver disease are costly and associated with significant mortality. This population-based study aimed to evaluate factors associated with in-hospital mortality and resource use for the management of hospitalized patients with cirrhosis.Mortality records and resource utilization for 52,027 patients hospitalized with cirrhosis and/or complications of portal hypertension (ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, or hepatorenal syndrome) were extracted from a nationally representative sample of Thai inpatients covered by Universal Coverage Scheme during 2009 to 2013.The rate of dying in the hospital increased steadily by 12% from 9.6% in 2009 to 10.8% in 2013 (P < .001). Complications of portal hypertension were independently associated with increased in-hospital mortality except for ascites. The highest independent risk for hospital death was seen with hepatorenal syndrome (odds ratio [OR], 5.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.38-5.79). Mortality rate remained high in patients with infection, particularly septicemia (OR, 4.26; 95% CI, 4.0-4.54) and pneumonia (OR, 2.44; 95% CI, 2.18-2.73). Receiving upper endoscopy (OR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.27-0.32) and paracentesis (OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.87-1.00) were associated with improved patient survival. The inflation-adjusted national annual costs (P = .06) and total hospital days (P = .07) for cirrhosis showed a trend toward increasing during the 5-year period. Renal dysfunction, infection, and sequelae of portal hypertension except for ascites were independently associated with increased resource utilization.Renal dysfunction, infection, and portal hypertension-related complications are the main factors affecting in-hospital mortality and resource utilization for hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. The early intervention for modifiable factors is an important step toward improving hospital outcomes.

A significant cancer burden and high mortality of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma in Thailand: a nationwide database study.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to examine the burden of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) in Thailand and identify the prognostic factors for all-causes of death. METHODS: We conducted a population-based study of ICC patients admitted during 2009-2013 using the Nationwide Hospital Admission Database, the National Health Security Office (NHSO). There was an average of 1,051,146 patients/year with diagnosis of gastrointestinal diseases (GI). All patients with a diagnosis of ICC (ICD10- C221) were included from a total of 72,479 admissions from 858 hospitals. The surgical resection procedures such as the radical pancreaticoduodenectomy, subtotal and partial hepatectomy were analyzed. Data for all patients were censored 1 year post-study or death, whichever came first. RESULTS: A total of 34,325 patients with ICC during a 5-year study period (on average, 6865 patients/year, with the incidence rate of 14.6 per 100,000 population, per year. The ICC patients had a mean age of 63.8+/-11.6 years and 63% were males. The mean length of hospital stay was 6.4+/-7.3 days with a mean+/-SD cost of hospitalization of $595+/-$1160 USD per admission. There were 659 patients (1.9%) underwent surgical resection. The overall survival of ICC patients with surgery was significantly better than those patients without surgery. Hazard ratio of death for patients without surgery was 2.5 (95% CI of 2.3-2.7). Approximately 14% of the ICC patients died during hospitalization. The median overall survival of all patients after the first admission was 53 +/-0.6 days. From the multivariate analysis, factors related to all-causes of death were: patients' age >60 years (OR = 1.2, 95% CI; 1.1-1.3), length of hospital stay of >7 days (OR = 1.1, 95% CI; 1.02-1.2), male (OR = 1.3, 95% CI; 1.2-1.4), living in the northern part of Thailand (OR = 1.5, 95% CI; 1.3-1.8) and presence of complications during admission (OR = 1.3, 95% CI; 1.1-1.5). CONCLUSION: The disease burden of patients with ICC in Thailand is significant with the incidence rate of 14.6 per 100,000 population, per year during 2009-2013 and showed high mortality rate of 14%.

The incidence, presentation, outcomes, risk of mortality and economic data of drug-induced liver injury from a national database in Thailand: a population-base study.

BACKGROUND: Toxic liver diseases are mainly caused by drug-induced liver injury (DILI). We assessed incidences and outcomes of DILI including associated factors for mortality. METHODS: We performed a population-based study of hospitalized patients with DILI. Information was retrieved from the Nationwide Hospital Admission Data using ICD-10 code of toxic liver diseases (K71) and additional codes (T36-T65). The associated factors were analyzed with log-rank test, univariate and multiple cox regression analysis. RESULTS: During 2009-2013, a total of 159,061 (average 21,165 per year) admissions were related to liver diseases. 6,516 admissions (1,303 per year) were due to toxic liver diseases. The most common type of toxic liver disease was acute hepatitis (33.5 %). In-hospital and 90-day mortality rates were 3.4 % and 17.2 %. DILI with cirrhosis yielded the highest in-hospital and 90-day mortality rates (15.8 % and 47.4 %). Acetaminophen, cirrhosis and age ≥ 60 years were seen in 0.5 %, 8.3 % and 50.1 % of patients who died versus 5 %, 2.3 % and 32.4 % of survivors. Factors associated with mortality were cirrhosis (HR 2.72, 95 % CI: 2.33-3.19), age ≥60 years (HR 2.16, 95 % CI: 1.96-2.38), human immunodeficiency viral infection (HR 2.11, 95 % CI: 1.88-2.36), chronic kidney disease (HR 1.59, 95 % CI: 1.33-1.90), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and bronchiectasis (HR 1.55, 95 % CI: 1.17-2.04), malnutrition (HR 1.43, 95 % CI: 1.10-1.86) and male (HR 1.31, 95 % CI: 1.21-1.43). Acetaminophen DILI yielded lower risks of mortality (HR 0.24, 95 % CI: 0.13-0.42). The most common causes of DILI were acetaminophen (35.0 %) and anti-tuberculous drugs (34.7 %). CONCLUSIONS: DILI is an uncommon indication for hospitalization carrying lower risks of death except in patients with non-acetaminophen, cirrhosis, elderly or concomitant diseases.

Estimating the Impact of Expanding Treatment Coverage and Allocation Strategies for Chronic Hepatitis C in a Direct Antiviral Agent Era.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is an important worldwide public health problem, and most of the global HCV burden is in low- to middle-income countries. This study aimed to estimate the future burden of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and the impact of public health policies using novel antiviral agents in Thailand. A mathematical model of CHC transmission dynamics was constructed to examine the disease burden over the next 20 years using different treatment strategies. We compared and evaluated the current treatment (PEGylated interferon and ribavirin) with new treatments using novel direct-acting antiviral agents among various treatment policies. Thailand's CHC prevalence was estimated to decrease 1.09%-0.19% in 2015-2035. Expanding treatment coverage (i.e., a five-fold increment in treatment accessibility) was estimated to decrease cumulative deaths (33,007 deaths avoided, 25.5% reduction) from CHC-related decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The yearly incidence of HCC-associated HCV was estimated to decrease from 2,305 to 1,877 cases yearly with expanding treatment coverage. A generalized treatment scenario (i.e., an equal proportional distribution of available treatment to individuals at all disease stages according to the number of cases at each stage) was predicted to further reduce death from HCC (9,170 deaths avoided, 11.3% reduction) and the annual incidence of HCC (i.e., a further decrease from 1,877 to 1,168 cases yearly, 37.7% reduction), but cumulative deaths were predicted to increase (by 3,626 deaths, 3.7% increase). Based on the extensive coverage scenario and the generalized treatment scenario, we estimated near-zero death from decompensated cirrhosis in 2031. In conclusion, CHC-related morbidity and mortality in Thailand are estimated to decrease dramatically over the next 20 years. Treatment coverage and allocation strategies are important factors that affect the future burden of CHC in resource-limited countries like Thailand.

Burden of Liver Abscess and Survival Risk Score in Thailand: A Population-Based Study.

In Thailand, the burden of liver abscess, a life-threatening infectious disease, has not been thoroughly evaluated. We developed a predictive scoring system to estimate survival of patients with liver abscess using information from the 2008-2013 Nationwide Hospital Admission Data to evaluate the burden of liver abscess in Thailand. All patients with primary diagnosis of pyogenic liver abscess (PLA) and amoebic liver abscess (ALA) were included. Epidemiological data, baseline characteristics, hospital course, and survival were analyzed. Overall, 11,296 admissions comprising 8,423 patients from 844 hospitals across Thailand were eligible for analysis. The mean age was 52 ± 17 years and 66.1% of patients were male. ALA was significantly prevalent in southern and western border regions of Thailand, and PLA occurred nationwide. The highest incidence of liver abscess occurred in the rainy season (June-November, P < 0.01). The median length of hospital stay was 8 days (interquartile range = 4-13 days), and mean direct cost of hospitalization was 846 ± 1,574 USD. The overall inhospital mortality rate was 2.8%. Incidence of ALA decreased over the 5-year study period, whereas PLA incidence increased (P < 0.01). Using multivariable Cox regression methods with stepwise variable selection, we developed a final model with five highly significant baseline parameters associated with increased 60-day mortality: older age, PLA, underlying chronic kidney disease, cirrhosis, and human immunodeficiency virus infection. Range of estimated probability of 60-day survival was 95-16% at cumulative risk score 0-13. This simplified score is practical, and may help clinicians prioritize patients requiring more intensive care.