The global fatty liver disease Sustainable Development Goal country score for 195 countries and territories.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Fatty liver disease is highly prevalent, resulting in overarching wellbeing and economic costs. Addressing it requires comprehensive and coordinated multisectoral action. We developed a fatty liver disease Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) country score to provide insights into country-level preparedness to address fatty liver disease through a whole-of-society lens. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We developed 2 fatty liver disease-SDG score sets. The first included 6 indicators (child wasting, child overweight, noncommunicable disease mortality, a universal health coverage service coverage index, health worker density, and education attainment), covering 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017. The second included the aforementioned indicators plus an urban green space indicator, covering 60 countries and territories for which 2017 data were available. To develop the fatty liver disease-SDG score, indicators were categorized as "positive" or "negative" and scaled from 0 to 100. Higher scores indicate better preparedness levels. Fatty liver disease-SDG scores varied between countries and territories (n = 195), from 14.6 (95% uncertainty interval: 8.9 to 19.4) in Niger to 93.5 (91.6 to 95.3) in Japan; 18 countries and territories scored > 85. Regionally, the high-income super-region had the highest score at 88.8 (87.3 to 90.1) in 2017, whereas south Asia had the lowest score at 44.1 (42.4 to 45.8). Between 1990 and 2017, the fatty liver disease-SDG score increased in all super-regions, with the greatest increase in south Asia, but decreased in 8 countries and territories. CONCLUSIONS: The fatty liver disease-SDG score provides a strategic advocacy tool at the national and global levels for the liver health field and noncommunicable disease advocates, highlighting the multisectoral collaborations needed to address fatty liver disease, and noncommunicable diseases overall.

A GBD 2019 study of health and Sustainable Development Goal gains and forecasts to 2030 in Spain.

This study aimed to report mortality, risk factors, and burden of diseases in Spain. The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 estimates the burden due to 369 diseases, injuries, and impairments and 87 risk factors and risk factor combinations. Here, we detail the updated Spain 1990-2019 burden of disease estimates and project certain metrics up to 2030. In 2019, leading causes of death were ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, Alzheimer's disease, and lung cancer. Main causes of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) were ischaemic heart disease, diabetes, lung cancer, low back pain, and stroke. Leading DALYs risk factors included smoking, high body mass index, and high fasting plasma glucose. Spain scored 74/100 among all health-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) indicators, ranking 20 of 195 countries and territories. We forecasted that by 2030, Spain would outpace Japan, the United States, and the European Union. Behavioural risk factors, such as smoking and poor diet, and environmental factors added a significant burden to the Spanish population's health in 2019. Monitoring these trends, particularly in light of COVID-19, is essential to prioritise interventions that will reduce the future burden of disease to meet population health and SDG commitments.

A sustainable development goal framework to guide multisectoral action on NAFLD through a societal approach.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a highly prevalent condition that requires a comprehensive and coordinated response across sectors and disciplines. AIMS: In the absence of a multisectoral framework to tackle this condition, we developed one using the sustainable development goals (SDGs) as the basis for converging thinking about the design and delivery of public health responses. METHODS: A multidisciplinary group identified the SDG targets and indicators for inclusion in the new framework through a two-stage process. Firstly, a core team of three researchers independently reviewed the 169 targets and 231 indicators of the SDGs to select a shortlist. Over two Delphi rounds, a multidisciplinary group of 12 experts selected which of the shortlisted targets and indicators to include. Respondents also provided written feedback on their selection. Targets and indicators with 75% or greater agreement were included in the final framework. RESULTS: The final framework comprises 16 targets-representing 9% of all targets and 62% (16/26) of the shortlisted targets-and seven indicators, accounting for 50% (7/14) of the shortlisted indicators and 3% of all indicators. The selected targets and indicators cover a broad range of factors, from health, food and nutrition to education, the economy, and the built environment. CONCLUSIONS: Addressing the challenge of NAFLD will require a re-envisioning of the liver health landscape, with greater focus on joined-up systems thinking and action. This new framework can help guide this process, including by outlining the stakeholders with whom the liver health community needs to engage.

Secondhand smoke exposure assessment in outdoor hospitality venues across 11 European countries.

OBJECTIVE: Due to partial or poorly enforced restrictions secondhand tobacco smoke (SHS) is still present in outdoor hospitality venues in many European countries. This study aimed to assess SHS concentrations in outdoor hospitality venues across Europe and identify contextual exposure determinants. METHODS: Cross-sectional study. We measured airborne nicotine and evidence of tobacco use in terraces of bars, cafeterias, and pubs from 11 European countries in 2017-2018. Sites were selected considering area-level socioeconomic indicators and half were visited during nighttime. We noted the smell of smoke, presence of smokers, cigarette butts, ashtrays, and number of physical covers. Contextual determinants included national smoke-free policies for the hospitality sector, the Tobacco Control Scale score (2016), and the national smoking prevalence (2017-2018). We computed medians and interquartile ranges (IQR) of nicotine concentrations and used multivariate analyses to characterize the exposure determinants. RESULTS: Nicotine was present in 93.6% of the 220 sites explored. Overall concentrations were 0.85 (IQR:0.30-3.74) µg/m3 and increased during nighttime (1.45 IQR:0.65-4.79 µg/m3), in enclosed venues (2.97 IQR:0.80-5.80 µg/m3), in venues with more than two smokers (2.79 IQR:1.03-6.30 µg/m3), in venues in countries with total indoor smoking bans (1.20 IQR:0.47-4.85 µg/m3), and in venues in countries with higher smoking prevalence (1.32 IQR:0.49-5.34 µg/m3). In multivariate analyses, nicotine concentrations were also positively associated with the observed number of cigarette butts. In venues with more than two smokers, SHS levels did not significantly vary with the venues' degree of enclosure. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that current restrictions in outdoor hospitality venues across Europe have a limited protective effect and justify the adoption of total smoking bans in outdoor areas of hospitality venues.

Burden of disease from second-hand tobacco smoke exposure at home among adults from European Union countries in 2017: an analysis using a review of recent meta-analyses.

Smoke-free legislation reduced second-hand smoke (SHS) exposure in public places, and indirectly promoted private smoke-free settings. Nevertheless, a large proportion of adults is still exposed to SHS at home. The aim of this paper is to quantify the burden of disease due to home SHS exposure among adults in the 28-European Union (EU) countries for year 2017. The burdens by gender from lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), breast cancer, ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, asthma, and diabetes were estimated in an original research analysis using the comparative risk assessment method. Relative risks of death/diseases by gender for adults exposed to SHS at home compared to not exposed ones were estimated updating existing meta-analyses. Prevalence of home SHS exposure by gender was estimated using a multiple imputation procedure based on Eurobarometer surveys. Data on mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors Study. In 2017, 526,000 DALYs (0.36% of total DALYs) and 24,000 deaths (0.46% of total deaths) were attributable to home SHS exposure in the 28-EU countries, mainly from COPD and IHD. South-Eastern EU countries showed the highest burden, with proportion of DALYs/deaths attributable to SHS exposure on total higher than 0.50%/0.70%, whereas northern EU-countries showed the lowest burden, with proportions of DALYs/deaths lower than 0.25%/0.34%. The burden from SHS exposure is still significant in EU countries. More could be done to raise awareness of the health risks associated with SHS exposure at home.

Who Smokes in Europe? Data From 12 European Countries in the TackSHS Survey (2017-2018).

BACKGROUND: Population data on tobacco use and its determinants require continuous monitoring and careful inter-country comparison. We aimed to provide the most up-to-date estimates on tobacco smoking from a large cross-sectional survey, conducted in selected European countries. METHODS: Within the TackSHS Project, a face-to-face survey on smoking was conducted in 2017-2018 in 12 countries: Bulgaria, England, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Portugal, Romania, and Spain, representing around 80% of the 432 million European Union (EU) adult population. In each country, a representative sample of around 1,000 subjects aged 15 years and older was interviewed, for a total of 11,902 participants. RESULTS: Overall, 25.9% of participants were current smokers (31.0% of men and 21.2% of women, P < 0.001), while 16.5% were former smokers. Smoking prevalence ranged from 18.9% in Italy to 37.0% in Bulgaria. It decreased with increasing age (compared to <45, multivariable odds ratio [OR] for ≥65 year, 0.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.27-0.36), level of education (OR for low vs high, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.17-1.48) and self-rated household economic level (OR for low vs high, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.74-2.42). The same patterns were found in both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: These smoking prevalence estimates represent the most up-to-date evidence in Europe. From them, it can be derived that there are more than 112 million current smokers in the EU-28. Lower socio-economic status is a major determinant of smoking habit in both sexes.

Burden of disease from breast cancer attributable to smoking and second-hand smoke exposure in Europe.

Smoking and second-hand smoke (SHS) exposure have been recently linked to a higher risk of breast cancer in women. The aim of this work is to estimate the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from breast cancer attributable to these two risk factors in the European Union (EU-28) in 2017. The comparative risk assessment method was used. Data on prevalence of smoking and SHS exposure were extracted from the Eurobarometer surveys, relative risks from a recent meta-analysis, and data on mortality and DALYs from breast cancer were estimated from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors Study. In 2017, 82 239 DALYs and 3354 deaths from breast cancer in the EU-28 could have been avoided by removing exposure to these two risk factors (smoking and SHS exposure). The proportion of DALYs from breast cancer lost respectively from smoking and SHS exposure was 2.6% and 1.0%, although geographically distributed with significant heterogeneity. These results represent the first estimates of breast cancer burden in women attributable to smoking and SHS exposure for the EU-28. It is important to increase awareness among women, health professionals and wider society of the association between smoking, SHS exposure and breast cancer, a relationship that is not widely recognised or discussed.

Tackling second-hand exposure to tobacco smoke and aerosols of electronic cigarettes: the TackSHS project protocol.

OBJECTIVE: The TackSHS project aims to comprehensively elucidate the impact that exposure to second-hand smoke (SHS) from cigarettes and second-hand aerosols (SHA) from electronic cigarettes have on the respiratory health of the European population according to socioeconomic characteristics and other determinants. METHOD: The TackSHS project involves a series of coordinated studies carried out by 11 academic and public health organisations from six European countries. The project will investigate: a) the determinants of SHS and SHA exposure assessed at the individual level (surveys on representative general population samples) and in common environments (environmental sampling in specific settings); b) the overall disease burden, mortality and morbidity attributable to such exposure; and c) its economic impact in terms of direct health care costs. The project will also examine specific acute respiratory health changes in healthy individuals and patients with respiratory diseases exposed to SHS and SHA. In addition, the project will examine the effectiveness of a novel intervention to reduce SHS exposure in households where smoking is permitted. All these studies are inter-related and involve collaborative coordination among the participant organisations. CONCLUSION: The comprehensive, integrated approach of the TackSHS project will enable a significant step forward from the current status quo in the understanding of the impact of SHS and SHA exposure on health and provide the basis for health policy recommendations to help European countries to further reduce the harm caused by SHS and SHA exposure.

Burden of disease attributable to second-hand smoke exposure: A systematic review.

Our aim was to provide a systematic review of studies on the burden of disease due to second-hand smoke (SHS) exposure, reviewing methods, exposure assessment, diseases causally linked to SHS, health outcomes, and estimates available to date. A literature review of studies on the burden of disease from SHS exposure, available in PubMed and SCOPUS, published 2007-2018 in English language, was carried out following the PRISMA recommendations. Overall, 588 studies were first identified, and 94 were eligible. Seventy-two studies were included in the systematic review. Most of them were based on the comparative risk assessment approach, assessing SHS exposure using mainly surveys on exposure at home/workplaces. Diseases more frequently studied were: lung cancer, ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma and breast cancer in adults; lower respiratory tract infection, otitis media, asthma, sudden infant death syndrome and low birth weight in children. The SHS exposure assessment and the reported population attributable fractions (PAF) were largely heterogeneous. As an example, the PAF from lung cancer varied between 0.6% and 20.5%. Moreover, PAF were estimated applying relative risks and SHS exposures with no consistent definitions or with different age classes. The research gap on the SHS exposure burden is shrinking. However, estimates are not yet available for a number of countries, particularly the Middle Eastern and African countries, and not all diseases with the strongest evidence of causation, such as sudden infant death syndrome, have been explored. Moreover, in some cases the applied methodology revealed relatively low quality of data.

A multicentre, randomized controlled trial of telehealth for the management of COPD.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is needed to determine the role of telehealth (TH) in COPD management. METHODS: PROMETE II was a multicentre, randomized, 12-month trial. Severe COPD patients in stable condition were randomized to a specific monitoring protocol with TH or routine clinical practice (RCP). The primary objective was to reduce the number of COPD exacerbations leading to ER visits/hospital admissions between groups. RESULTS: Overall, 237 COPD patients were screened, and 229 (96.6%) were randomized to TH (n = 115) or RCP (n = 114), with age of 71 ±â€¯8 years and 80% were men. Overall, 169 completed the full follow-up period. There were no statistical differences at one year between groups in the proportion of participants who had a COPD exacerbation (60% in TH vs. 53.5% in RCP; p = 0.321). There was, however, a marked but non-significant trend towards a shorter duration of hospitalization and days in ICU in the TH group (18.9 ±â€¯16.0 and 6.0 ±â€¯4.6 days) compared to the RCP group (22.4 ±â€¯19.5 and 13.3 ±â€¯11.1 days). The number of all-cause deaths was comparable between groups (12 in TH vs. 13 in RCP) as was total resource utilization cost (7912€ in TH vs. 8918€ in RCP). Telehealth was evaluated highly positively by patients and doctors. CONCLUSIONS: Remote patient management did not reduce COPD-related ER visits or hospital admissions compared to RCP within 12 months.

Temporal transitions in COPD severity stages within the GOLD 2017 classification system.

BACKGROUND: The stability of the new GOLD 2017 COPD staging is unknown, as well as the frequency of individual transitions in COPD stages beyond one year. METHODS: All COPD participants in the CHAIN cohort were re-analysed according to GOLD 2017 up to five years of follow-up. Their individual changes within COPD stages were aggregated into cohort-wide Markov chains; group stability was evaluated using joinpoint regression. RESULTS: At baseline, 959 COPD patients were distributed according to GOLD 2017 stages as 37.7% in A, 38.3% B, 8.2% C, and 15.7% D. The group proportion of patients in each stage was maintained from years one to five. However, we found significant changes between stages at the individual patient level, especially in the more severe stages. The probability of a patient remaining in the same GOLD 2017 COPD stage for two consecutive years ranged during the five years of follow-up for stage C from 16% to 31% per year, while for D from 23% to 43% per year, indicating substantial variation either increasing or decreasing severity for the vast majority of patients. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that group stability observed in COPD staging according to GOLD 2017 recommendations is paired with a large variability at the individual patient level.

The burden of disease in Spain: Results from the Global Burden of Disease 2016. / La carga de enfermedad en España: resultados del Estudio de la Carga Global de las Enfermedades 2016.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The global burden of disease (GBD) project measures the health of populations worldwide on an annual basis, and results are available by country. We used the estimates of the GBD to summarise the state of health in Spain in 2016 and report trends in mortality and morbidity from 1990 to 2016. MATERIAL AND METHODS: GBD 2016 estimated disease burden due to 333 diseases and injuries, and 84 risk factors. The GBD list of causes is hierarchical and includes 3 top level categories, namely: 1) communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; 2) non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and 3) injuries. Mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), risk factors, and progress towards the sustainable development goals (SDGs) are presented based on the GBD 2016 data in Spain. RESULTS: There were 418,516 deaths in Spain in 2016, from a total population of 46.5 million, and 80.5% of them occurred in those aged 70 years and older. Overall, NCDs were the main cause of death: 388,617 (95% uncertainty interval 374,959-402,486), corresponding to 92.8% of all deaths. They were followed by 3.6% due to injuries with 15,052 (13,902-17,107) deaths, and 3.5% communicable diseases with 14,847 (13,208-16,482) deaths. The 5 leading specific causes of death were ischaemic heart disease (IHD, 14.6% of all deaths), Alzheimer disease and other dementias (13.6%), stroke (7.1%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (6.9%), and lung cancer (5.0%). Remarkable increases in mortality from 1990 to 2016 were observed in other cancers, lower respiratory infections, chronic kidney disease, and other cardiovascular disease, among others. On the contrary, road injuries moved down from 8th to 32nd position, and diabetes from 6th to 10th. Low back and neck pain became the number one cause of DALYs in Spain in 2016, just surpassing IHD, while Alzheimer disease moved from 9th to 3rd position. The greatest changes in DALYs were observed for road injuries dropping from 4th to 16th position, and congenital disorders from 17th to 35th; conversely, oral disorders rose from 25th to 17th. Overall, smoking is by far the most relevant risk factor in Spain, followed by high blood pressure, high body mass index, alcohol use, and high fasting plasma glucose. Finally, Spain scored 74.3 of 100 points in the SDG index classification in 2016, and the main national drivers of detrimental health in SDGs were alcohol consumption, smoking and child obesity. An increase to 80.3 points is projected in 2030. CONCLUSION: Low back and neck pain was the most important contributor of disability in Spain in 2016. There has seen a remarkable increase in the burden due to Alzheimer disease and other dementias. Tobacco remains the most important health issue to address in Spain.

Healthcare resource use and costs of severe, uncontrolled eosinophilic asthma in the UK general population.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the prevalence of severe, uncontrolled eosinophilic asthma (SUEA) and associated costs. AIMS: We sought to determine the prevalence of SUEA and compare asthma-related healthcare resource use (HCRU) and associated costs with overall means for a general asthma population. METHODS: This cohort study evaluated anonymised medical record data (December 1989 through June 2015) from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and the Optimum Patient Care Research Database to study UK patients with active asthma (diagnostic code and one or more drug prescriptions in the baseline year), aged 5 years and older, without concomitant COPD, and with recorded eosinophil count. SUEA was defined as two or more asthma attacks during 1 baseline year preceding a high blood eosinophil count (≥0.3×109/L) for patients prescribed long-acting ß2-agonist (LABA) and high-dosage inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) during baseline plus 1 follow-up year. We compared asthma-related HCRU and associated direct costs (2015 pounds sterling, £) during the follow-up year for SUEA versus the general asthma population. RESULTS: Of 363 558 patients with active asthma and recorded eosinophil count, 64% were women, mean (SD) age was 49 (21) years; 43% had high eosinophil counts, 7% had two or more attacks in the baseline year and 10% were prescribed high-dosage ICS/LABA for 2 study years. Overall, 2940 (0.81%; 95% CI 0.78% to 0.84%) patients had SUEA. Total mean per-patient HCRU and associated costs were four times greater for SUEA versus all patients (HCRU and cost ratios 3.9; 95% CI 3.7 to 4.1). CONCLUSIONS: Less than 1% of patients in a general asthma population had SUEA. These patients accounted for substantially greater asthma-related HCRU and costs than average patients with asthma.

Initiating or changing to a fixed-dose combination of Fluticasone propionate/Formoterol over Fluticasone propionate/Salmeterol: A real-life effectiveness and cost impact evaluation.

OBJECTIVE: Asthma has a substantial impact on quality of life and health care resources. The identification of a more cost-effective, yet equally efficacious, treatment could positively influence the economic burden of this disease. Fluticasone propionate/Formoterol (FP/FOR) may be as effective as Fluticasone Salmeterol (FP/SAL). We evaluated non-inferiority of asthma control in terms of the proportion of patients free from exacerbations, and conducted a cost impact analysis. METHODS: This historical, matched cohort database study evaluated two treatment groups in the Optimum Patient Care Research Database in the UK: 1) an FP/FOR cohort of patients initiating treatment with FP/FOR or changing from FP/SAL to FP/FOR and; 2) an FP/SAL cohort comprising patients initiating, or remaining on FP/SAL pMDI combination therapy. The main outcome evaluated non-inferiority of effectiveness (defined as prevention of severe exacerbations, lower limit of the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the mean difference between groups in patient proportions with no exacerbations is -3.5% or higher) in patients treated with FP/FOR versus FP/SAL. RESULTS: After matching 1:3, we studied a total of 2472 patients: 618 in the FP/FOR cohort (174 patients initiated on FP/FOR and 444 patients changed to FP/FOR) and 1854 in the FP/SAL cohort (522 patients initiated FP/SAL and 1332 continued FP/SAL). The percentage of patients prescribed FP/FOR met non-inferiority as the adjusted mean difference in proportion of no severe exacerbations (95%CI) was 0.008 (-0.032, 0.047) between the two cohorts. No other significant differences were observed except acute respiratory event rates, which were lower for patients prescribed FP/FOR (rate ratio [RR] 0.82, 95% CI 0.71, 0.94). CONCLUSIONS: Changing to, or initiating FP/FOR combination therapy, is associated with a non-inferior proportion of patients who are severe exacerbation-free at a lower average annual cost compared with continuing or initiating treatment with FP/SAL.

An Epidemiological Overview of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: What Can Real-Life Data Tell Us about Disease Management?

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common condition, associated with increasing age and smoking exposure. COPD is a leading cause of morbidity, mortality and health care expenditure worldwide; yet, only 10-15% of all cases are identified medically. Alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) is responsible for about 1% of COPD cases but is also largely under-recognised, leading to diagnostic delay and missed treatment opportunities in patients who remain undetected. New evidence has recently highlighted the extent of overlap between COPD and bronchiectasis and the implications of comorbidity on clinical course and mortality. COPD with comorbid bronchiectasis deserves to be given research priority. This article overviews the epidemiology of COPD and examines the implications of overlap between COPD and AATD and between COPD and bronchiectasis.

Determinants and impact of suboptimal asthma control in Europe: The INTERNATIONAL CROSS-SECTIONAL AND LONGITUDINAL ASSESSMENT ON ASTHMA CONTROL (LIAISON) study.

BACKGROUND: According to the Global Initiative of Asthma, the aim of asthma treatment is to gain and maintain control. In the INTERNATIONAL CROSS-SECTIONAL AND LONGITUDINAL ASSESSMENT ON ASTHMA CONTROL (LIAISON) study, we evaluated the level of asthma control and quality of life (QoL), as well as their determinants and impact in a population consulting specialist settings. METHODS: LIAISON is a prospective, multicentre, observational study with a cross-sectional and a 12-month longitudinal phase. Adults with an asthma diagnosis since at least 6 months, receiving the same asthma treatment in the 4 weeks before enrolment were included. Asthma control was assessed with the 6-item Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ) and QoL with the MiniAsthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (MiniAQLQ). RESULTS: Overall, 8111 asthmatic patients were enrolled in 12 European countries. Asthma control was suboptimal in 56.5 % of patients and it was associated with poorer asthma-related QoL, higher risk of exacerbations and greater consumption of healthcare resources. Variables associated with suboptimal control were age, gender, obesity, smoking and comorbidities. Major determinants of poor asthma control were seasonal worsening and persisting exposure to allergens/irritants/triggers, followed by treatment-related issues. CONCLUSIONS: The cross-sectional phase results confirm that suboptimal control is frequent and has a high individual and economic impact. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The clinicaltrials.gov identifier is NCT01567280 .

Prognostic assessment in COPD without lung function: the B-AE-D indices.

Several composite markers have been proposed for risk assessment in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, choice of parameters and score complexity restrict clinical applicability. Our aim was to provide and validate a simplified COPD risk index independent of lung function.The PROMISE study (n=530) was used to develop a novel prognostic index. Index performance was assessed regarding 2-year COPD-related mortality and all-cause mortality. External validity was tested in stable and exacerbated COPD patients in the ProCOLD, COCOMICS and COMIC cohorts (total n=2988).Using a mixed clinical and statistical approach, body mass index (B), severe acute exacerbations of COPD frequency (AE), modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea severity (D) and copeptin (C) were identified as the most suitable simplified marker combination. 0, 1 or 2 points were assigned to each parameter and totalled to B-AE-D or B-AE-D-C. It was observed that B-AE-D and B-AE-D-C were at least as good as BODE (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, exercise capacity), ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) and DOSE (dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking, exacerbation) indices for predicting 2-year all-cause mortality (c-statistic: 0.74, 0.77, 0.69, 0.72 and 0.63, respectively; Hosmer-Lemeshow test all p>0.05). Both indices were COPD specific (c-statistic for predicting COPD-related 2-year mortality: 0.87 and 0.89, respectively). External validation of B-AE-D was performed in COCOMICS and COMIC (c-statistic for 1-year all-cause mortality: 0.68 and 0.74; c-statistic for 2-year all-cause mortality: 0.65 and 0.67; Hosmer-Lemeshow test all p>0.05).The B-AE-D index, plus copeptin if available, allows a simple and accurate assessment of COPD-related risk.

Global burden of COPD.

It is estimated that the world population will reach a record 7.3 billion in 2015, and the high burden of chronic conditions associated with ageing and smoking will increase further. Respiratory diseases in general receive little attention and funding in comparison with other major causes of global morbidity and mortality. In particular, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been a major public health problem and will remain a challenge for clinicians within the 21st century. Worldwide, COPD is in the spotlight, since its high prevalence, morbidity and mortality create formidable challenges for health-care systems. This review emphasizes the magnitude of the COPD problem from a clinician's standpoint by drawing extensively from the new findings of the Global Burden of Disease study. Updated, distilled information on the population distribution of COPD is useful for the clinician to help provide an appreciation of the relative impact of COPD in daily practice compared with other chronic conditions, and to allocate minimum resources in anticipation of future needs in care. Despite recent trends in reduction of COPD standardized mortality rates and some recent successes in anti-smoking efforts in a number of Western countries, the overarching demographic impact of ageing in an ever-expanding world population, joined with other factors such as high rates of smoking and air pollution in Asia, will ensure that COPD will continue to pose an ever-increasing problem well into the 21st century.