Does employment status mediate the association between disability status and mental health among young adults? Evidence from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey.

OBJECTIVE: Young adults with disabilities are less likely to be employed and more likely to have poor mental health than peers without disabilities. Growing evidence shows that social determinants of health may be causally related to mental health outcomes of people with disabilities. We aimed to assess if the disability to mental health association was mediated by employment status among young adults aged 20-35 years. METHODS: Four consecutive years (2016-2019) of data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey were used to conduct a causal mediation analysis. We decomposed the total causal effect of disability status on mental health (Short Form-36 Mental Health Inventory-5) into the natural direct effect from disability to mental health and the natural indirect effect representing the pathway through the employment mediator (being employed; being unemployed or wanting to work). RESULTS: 3435 participants (3058 with no disabilities, 377 with disabilities) were included in the analysis. The total causal effect of disability status on mental health was an estimated mean decrease in mental health of 4.84 points (95% CI -7.44 to -2.23). The indirect effect, through employment status, was estimated to be a 0.91-point decline in mental health (95% CI -1.50 to -0.31). CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest disability has an effect on the mental health of young adults; a proportion of this effect appears to operate through employment. The mental health of young adults with disabilities could potentially be improved with interventions to improve employment outcomes among this group, and by supporting individuals with disabilities into suitable employment.

Economic evaluation of a Decision Support Tool to guide intensity of mental health care in general practice: the Link-me pragmatic randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: This paper reports on the cost-effectiveness evaluation of Link-me - a digitally supported, systematic approach to triaging care for depression and anxiety in primary care that uses a patient-completed Decision Support Tool (DST). METHODS: The economic evaluation was conducted alongside a parallel, stratified individually randomised controlled trial (RCT) comparing prognosis-matched care to usual care at six- and 12-month follow-up. Twenty-three general practices in three Australian Primary Health Networks recruited 1,671 adults (aged 18 - 75 years), predicted by the DST to have minimal/mild or severe depressive or anxiety symptoms in three months. The minimal/mild prognostic group was referred to low intensity services. Participants screened in the severe prognostic group were offered high intensity care navigation, a model of care coordination. The outcome measures included in this evaluation were health sector costs (including development and delivery of the DST, care navigation and other healthcare services used) and societal costs (health sector costs plus lost productivity), psychological distress [Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10)] and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) derived from the EuroQol 5-dimension quality of life questionnaire with Australian general population preference weights applied. Costs were valued in 2018-19 Australian dollars (A$). RESULTS: Across all participants, the health sector incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of Link-me per point decrease in K10 at six months was estimated at $1,082 (95% CI $391 to $6,204) increasing to $2,371 (95% CI $191 to Dominated) at 12 months. From a societal perspective, the ICER was estimated at $1,257/K10 point decrease (95% CI Dominant to Dominated) at six months, decreasing to $1,217 (95% CI Dominant to Dominated) at 12 months. No significant differences in QALYs were detected between trial arms and the intervention was dominated (less effective, more costly) based on the cost/QALY ICER. CONCLUSIONS: The Link-me approach to stepped mental health care would not be considered cost-effective utilising a cost/QALY outcome metric commonly adopted by health technology assessment agencies. Rather, Link-me showed a trend toward cost-effectiveness by providing improvement in mental health symptoms, measured by the K10, at an additional cost. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ANZCTRN 12617001333303.

Suicide after and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico City

Objectives: Prior research has indicated that no increase in suicides occurred immediately following the declaration of the COVID-19 emergency in Mexico City. Here we examine longer-term overall suicide trends and trends according to basic demographic groups. Methods: We used interrupted time-series analysis to model trends in monthly suicides before COVID-19 (January 1, 2010 to March 31, 2020), comparing the expected number of suicides both overall and according to age and sex with the observed number of suicides for the remainder of 2020 (April 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020). Results: There was an overall increase in suicides during the first 9 months of the pandemic, with a rate ratio of 2.07 (1.86-2.31). The increase began in the early months of the pandemic and remained stable and high after June 2020. Men and women, younger people (< 45) and older people (≥ 45) were affected. The increase was especially high among older women (RR = 3.33; 2.04-5.15). Conclusions: The increase in suicides in Mexico City is worrying and highlights the need to strengthen economic development, mental health, and well-being programs. Suicides among older women should be closely monitored. There is an urgent need to expand primary health care services to include robust suicide prevention and treatment options.

Somatic symptom severity association with healthcare utilization and costs in surgical inpatients with an episode of abdominal pain.

BACKGROUND: Somatic syndromes are present in 30 per cent of primary healthcare populations and are associated with increased health service use and health costs. Less is known about secondary care surgical inpatient populations. METHODS: This was a prospective longitudinal cohort study (n = 465) of consecutive adult admissions with an episode of non-traumatic abdominal pain, to the Acute General Surgical Unit at a tertiary hospital in New South Wales, Australia. Somatic symptom severity (SSS) was dichotomized using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ)-15 with a cut-off point of 10 or higher (medium-high SSS) and compared pre-admission and during admission. Total healthcare utilization and direct costs were stratified by a PHQ-15 score of 10 or higher. Linear regression was used to examine differences in costs, and a multivariable linear regression was used to examine the relationship of PHQ-15 scores of 10 or higher to total costs, reported as mean total costs of care and percentage difference (95 per cent confidence intervals). RESULTS: Fifty-two per cent (n = 242) of participants had a medium-high SSS with greater pre-admission and admission interval health service costs. Mean total direct costs of care were 25 per cent (95 per cent c.i. 8 to 44 per cent) higher in the PHQ-15 score of 10 or higher group: mean difference €1401.93 (95 per cent c.i. €512.19 to €2273.67). The multivariable model showed a significant association of PHQ-15 scores of 10 or higher (2.1 per cent; 0.2-4.1 per cent greater for each one-point increase in score) with total hospital costs, although the strongest contributions to cost were older age, operative management, and lower socioeconomic level. There was a linear relationship between PHQ scores and total healthcare costs. CONCLUSIONS: Medium to high levels of somatic symptoms are common in surgical inpatients with abdominal pain and are independently associated with greater healthcare utilization.

Cost-effectiveness of Installing Barriers at Bridge and Cliff Sites for Suicide Prevention in Australia.

Importance: Installation of barriers has been shown to reduce suicides. To our knowledge, no studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of installing barriers at multiple bridge and cliff sites where suicides are known to occur. Objective: To examine the cost-effectiveness of installing barriers at bridge and cliff sites throughout Australia. Design, Setting, and Participants: This economic evaluation used an economic model to examine the costs, costs saved, and reductions in suicides if barriers were installed across identified bridge and cliff sites over 5 and 10 years. Specific and accessible bridge and cliff sites across Australia that reported 2 or more suicides over a 5-year period were identified for analysis. A partial societal perspective (including intervention costs and monetary value associated with preventing suicide deaths) was adopted in the development of the model. Interventions: Barriers installed at bridge and cliff sites. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcome was return on investment (ROI) comparing cost savings with intervention costs. Secondary outcomes included incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), comprising the difference in costs between installation of barriers and no installation of barriers divided by the difference in reduction of suicide cases. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were undertaken to examine the association of changes in suicide rates with barrier installation, adjustments to the value of statistical life, and changes in maintenance costs of barriers. Results: A total of 7 bridges and 19 cliff sites were included in the model. If barriers were installed at bridge sites, an estimated US $145 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], $90 to $160 million) could be saved in prevented suicides over 5 years, and US $270 million (95% UI, $176 to $298 million) over 10 years. The estimated ROI ratio for building barriers over 10 years at bridges was 2.4 (95% UI, 1.5 to 2.7); the results for cliff sites were not significant (ROI, 2.0; 95% UI, -1.1 to 3.8). The ICER indicated monetary savings due to averted suicides over the intervention cost for bridges, although evidence for similar savings was not significant for cliffs. Results were robust in all sensitivity analyses except when the value of statistical life-year over 5 or 10 years only was used. Conclusions and Relevance: In an economic analysis, barriers were a cost-effective suicide prevention intervention at bridge sites. Further research is required for cliff sites.

Hospital presentations for self-poisoning during COVID-19 in Sri Lanka: an interrupted time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: There is widespread concern over the impact of public health measures, such as lockdowns, associated with COVID-19 on mental health, including suicide. High-quality evidence from low-income and middle-income countries, where the burden of suicide and self-harm is greatest, is scarce. We aimed to determine the effect of the pandemic on hospital presentations for self-poisoning. METHODS: In this interrupted time-series analysis, we established a new self-poisoning register at the tertiary care Teaching Hospital Peradeniya in Sri Lanka, a lower-middle-income country. Using a standard extraction sheet, data were gathered for all patients admitted to the Toxicology Unit with self-poisoning between Jan 1, 2019, and Aug 31, 2020. Only patients classified by the treating clinician as having intentionally self-poisoned were included. Data on date of admission, age or date of birth, sex, and poisoning method were collected. No data on ethnicity were available. We used interrupted time-series analysis to calculate weekly hospital admissions for self-poisoning before (Jan 1, 2019-March 19, 2020) and during (March 20-Aug 31, 2020) the pandemic, overall and by age (age <25 years vs ≥25 years) and sex. Individuals with missing date of admission were excluded from the main analysis. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2019, and Aug 31, 2020, 1401 individuals (584 [41·7%] males, 761 [54·3%] females, and 56 [4·0%] of unknown sex) presented to the hospital with self-poisoning and had date of admission data. A 32% (95% CI 12-48) reduction in hospital presentations for self-poisoning in the pandemic period compared with pre-pandemic trends was observed (rate ratio 0·68, 95% CI 0·52-0·88; p=0·0032). We found no evidence that the impact of the pandemic differed by sex (rate ratio 0·64, 95% CI 0·44-0·94, for females vs 0·85, 0·57-1·26, for males; pinteraction=0·43) or age (0·64, 0·44-0·93, for patients aged <25 years vs 0·81, 0·57-1·16, for patients aged ≥25 years; pinteraction=0·077). INTERPRETATION: This is the first study from a lower-middle-income country to estimate the impact of the pandemic on self-harm (non-fatal) accounting for underlying trends. If the fall in hospital presentations during the pandemic reflects a reduction in the medical treatment of people who have self-poisoned, rather than a true fall in incidence, then public health messages should emphasise the importance of seeking help early. FUNDING: Elizabeth Blackwell Institute University of Bristol, Wellcome Trust, and Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention. TRANSLATIONS: For the Sinhalese and Tamil translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Complaint risk among mental health practitioners compared with physical health practitioners: a retrospective cohort study of complaints to health regulators in Australia.

OBJECTIVES: To understand complaint risk among mental health practitioners compared with physical health practitioners. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study, using incidence rate ratios (IRRs) to analyse complaint risk and a multivariate regression model to identify predictors of complaints. SETTING: National study using complaints data from health regulators in Australia. PARTICIPANTS: All psychiatrists and psychologists ('mental health practitioners') and all physicians, optometrists, physiotherapists, osteopaths and chiropractors ('physical health practitioners') registered to practice in Australia between 2011 and 2016. OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence rates, source and nature of complaints to regulators. RESULTS: In total, 7903 complaints were lodged with regulators over the 6-year period. Most complaints were lodged by patients and their families. Mental health practitioners had a complaint rate that was more than twice that of physical health practitioners (complaints per 1000 practice years: psychiatrists 119.1 vs physicians 48.0, p<0.001; psychologists 21.9 vs other allied health 7.5, p<0.001). Their risk of complaints was especially high in relation to reports, records, confidentiality, interpersonal behaviour, sexual boundary breaches and the mental health of the practitioner. Among mental health practitioners, male practitioners (psychiatrists IRR: 1.61, 95% CI 1.39 to 1.85; psychologists IRR: 1.85, 95% CI 1.65 to 2.07) and older practitioners (≥65 years compared with 36-45 years: psychiatrists IRR 2.37, 95% CI 1.95 to 2.89; psychologists IRR 1.78, 95% CI 1.47 to 2.14) were at increased risk of complaints. CONCLUSIONS: Mental health practitioners were more likely to be the subject of complaints than physical health practitioners. Areas of increased risk are related to professional ethics, communication skills and the health of mental health practitioners themselves. Further research could usefully explore whether addressing these risk factors through training, professional development and practitioner health initiatives may reduce the risk of complaints about mental health practitioners.

Smoking prevalence following tobacco tax increases in Australia between 2001 and 2017: an interrupted time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Building on substantial tobacco control action over the previous decade, Australia increased the taxes on tobacco by 25% without forewarning on April 30, 2010. Australia then became one of a few countries to pre-announce a series of increases in tobacco taxes, with annual 12·5% increases starting from December, 2013. We aimed to examine the effects of both tax increases on smoking prevalence. METHODS: By use of survey data from Australians aged 14 years and older in five capital cities, we did an interrupted time-series analysis to model the monthly prevalence of smoking (overall, of factory-made cigarettes [FMC], and of roll-your-own tobacco [RYO]), in the total sample and stratified by socioeconomic status subgroups. We measured outcomes in May, 2001-April, 2010; May, 2010-November, 2013; and December, 2013-April, 2017. FINDINGS: The 25% tax increase was associated with immediate (-0·745 percentage points; 95% CI -1·378 to -0·112) and sustained reductions in prevalence (monthly trend -0·023 percentage points; -0·044 to -0·003), which were driven by reductions in the prevalence of smoking of FMC. The prevalence of smoking of RYO increased between May, 2010, and November, 2013, after the 25% tax increase. At the start of the pre-announced annual 12·5% increases, we observed an immediate reduction in smoking (-0·997 percentage points; -1·632 to -0·362), followed by decreasing overall prevalence (monthly trend -0·044 percentage points; -0·063 to -0·026) due to ongoing decreases in the prevalence of FMC smoking and a cessation of increases in the prevalence of smoking of RYO. Immediate decreases in smoking and changing trends in the prevalence of smoking of RYO were most evident among groups with a lower socioeconomic status. INTERPRETATION: Large tax increases are effective in reducing smoking prevalence, both as a single increase without forewarning and as a pre-announced series of increases. However, taxes on tobacco are best structured to apply equally to FMC and RYO products. Tobacco control policies should prohibit price marketing that otherwise erodes the full impact of such tax increases. FUNDING: Cancer Council Victoria.

Impact of a mass media campaign on participation rates in a National Bowel Cancer Screening Program: a field experiment.

OBJECTIVES AND DESIGN: This field experiment aimed to compare bowel cancer screening participation rates prior to, during and after a mass media campaign promoting screening, and the extent to which a higher intensity campaign in one state led to higher screening rates compared with another state that received lower intensity campaign exposure. INTERVENTION: An 8-week television-led mass media campaign was launched in selected regions of Australia in mid-2014 to promote Australia's National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) that posts out immunochemical faecal occult blood test (iFOBT) kits to the homes of age-eligible people. The campaign used paid 30-second television advertising in the entire state of Queensland but not at all in Western Australia. Other supportive campaign elements had national exposure, including print, 4-minute television advertorials, digital and online advertising. OUTCOME MEASURES: Monthly kit return and invite data from NBCSP (January 2012 to December 2014). Return rates were determined as completed kits returned for analysis out of the number of people invited to do the iFOBT test in the current and past 3 months in each state. RESULTS: Analyses adjusted for seasonality and the influence of other national campaigns. The number of kits returned for analysis increased in Queensland (adjusted rate ratio 20%, 95% CI 1.06% to 1.35%, p<0.01) during the months of the campaign and up to 2 months after broadcast, but only showed a tendency to increase in Western Australia (adjusted rate ratio 11%, 95% CI 0.99% to 1.24%, p=0.087). CONCLUSIONS: The higher intensity 8-week television-led campaign in Queensland increased the rate of kits returned for analysis in Queensland, whereas there were marginal effects for the low intensity campaign elements in Western Australia. The low levels of participation in Australia's NBCSP could be increased by national mass media campaigns, especially those led by higher intensity paid television advertising.

Changes in Practice among Physicians with Malpractice Claims.

BACKGROUND: Physicians with poor malpractice liability records may pose a risk to patient safety. There are long-standing concerns that such physicians tend to relocate for a fresh start, but little is known about whether, how, and where they continue to practice. METHODS: We linked an extract of the National Practitioner Data Bank to the Medicare Data on Provider Practice and Specialty data set to create a national cohort of physicians 35 to 65 years of age who practiced during the period from 2008 through 2015. We analyzed associations between the number of paid malpractice claims that physicians accrued and exits from medical practice, changes in clinical volume, geographic relocation, and change in practice-group size. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 480,894 physicians who had 68,956 paid claims from 2003 through 2015. A total of 89.0% of the physicians had no claims, 8.8% had 1 claim, and the remaining 2.3% had 2 or more claims and accounted for 38.9% of all claims. The number of claims was positively associated with the odds of leaving the practice of medicine (odds ratio for 1 claim vs. no claims, 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 1.11; odds ratio for ≥5 claims, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.20 to 1.74). The number of claims was not associated with geographic relocation but was positively associated with shifts into smaller practice settings. For example, physicians with 5 or more claims had more than twice the odds of moving into solo practice than physicians with no claims (odds ratio, 2.39; 95% CI, 1.79 to 3.20). CONCLUSIONS: Physicians with multiple malpractice claims were no more likely to relocate geographically than those with no claims, but they were more likely to stop practicing medicine or switch to smaller practice settings. (Funded by SUMIT Insurance and the Australian Research Council.).

Link-me: Protocol for a randomised controlled trial of a systematic approach to stepped mental health care in primary care.

Primary care in Australia is undergoing significant reform, with a particular focus on cost-effective tailoring of mental health care to individual needs. Link-me is testing whether a patient-completed Decision Support Tool (DST), which predicts future severity of depression and anxiety symptoms and triages individuals into care accordingly, is clinically effective and cost-effective relative to usual care. The trial is set in general practices, with English-speaking patients invited to complete eligibility screening in their general practitioner's waiting room. Eligible and consenting patients will then complete the DST assessment and are randomised and stratified according to predicted symptom severity. Participants allocated to the intervention arm will receive feedback on DST responses, select treatment priorities, assess motivation to change, and receive a severity-matched treatment recommendation (information about and links to low intensity services for those with mild symptoms, or assistance from a specially trained health professional (care navigator) for those with severe symptoms). All patients allocated to the comparison arm will receive usual GP care plus attention control. Primary (psychological distress) and secondary (depression, anxiety, quality of life, days out of role) outcomes will be assessed at 6 and 12 months. Differences in outcome means between trial arms both across and within symptom severity group will be examined using intention-to-treat analyses. Within trial and modelled economic evaluations will be conducted to determine the value for money of credentials of Link-me. Findings will be reported to the Federal Government to inform how mental health services across Australia are funded and delivered in the future.

Does legislative change affect the use and duration of compulsory treatment orders?

OBJECTIVE: Victoria, Australia, introduced reformed mental health legislation in 2014. The Act was based on a policy platform of recovery-oriented services, supported decision-making and minimisation of the use and duration of compulsory orders. This paper compares service utilisation and legal status after being on a community treatment order under the Mental Health Act 1986 (Vic) with that under the Mental Health Act 2014 (Vic). METHODS: We obtained two distinct data sets of persons who had been on a community treatment order for at least 3 months and their subsequent treatment episodes over 2 years under the Mental Health Act and/or as an inpatient for the periods 2008-2010 (Mental Health Act 1986) and 2014-2016 (Mental Health Act 2014). The two sets were compared to assess the difference in use, duration and odds of having a further admission over 2 years. We also considered the mode of discharge - whether by the treating psychiatrist, external body or through expiry. RESULTS: Compared with the Mental Health Act 1986, under the Mental Health Act 2014, index community treatment orders were shorter (mean 227 days compared with 335 days); there was a reduction in the mean number of community treatment orders in the 2 years following the index discharge - 1.1 compared with 1.5 (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.71, 95% confidence interval = [0.63, 0.80]) - and a 51% reduction in days on an order over 2 years. There was a reduction in the number of subsequent orders for those whose order expired or was revoked by the psychiatrist under the Mental Health Act 2014 compared to those under the Mental Health Act 1986. The number of orders which were varied to an inpatient order by the authorised psychiatrist was notably greater under the Mental Health Act 2014. CONCLUSION: The reformed Mental Health Act has been successful in its intent to reduce the use and duration of compulsory orders in the community. The apparent increase in return to inpatient orders raises questions regarding the intensity and effectiveness of community treatment and context of service delivery.

The importance of including aliases in data linkage with vulnerable populations.

BACKGROUND: Records pertaining to individuals whose identity cannot be verified with legal documentation may contain errors, or be incorrect by intention of the individual. Probabilistic data linkage, especially in vulnerable populations where the incidence of such records may be higher, must be considerate of the usage of these records. METHODS: A data linkage was conducted between Queensland Youth Justice records and the Australian National Death Index. Links were assessed to determine how often they were made using the unverified (alias) records that would not have been made in their absence (i.e. links that were not also made using solely verified records). Anomalies in the linked records were investigated in order to make evaluations of the sensitivity and specificity of the linkage, compared to the links made using only verified records. RESULTS: From links made using verified records only, 1309 deaths were identified (2.6% of individuals). Using alias records in addition, the number of links increased by 16%. Links made using alias records only were more common in females, and those born after 1985. Different records belonging to the same individual in the justice dataset did not link to different death records, however there were instances of the same death record linking to multiple cohort individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The inclusion of aliases in data linkage in youths involved in the justice system increased mortality ascertainment without any discernible increase in false positive matches. We therefore conclude that alias records should be included in data linkage procedures in order to avoid biased attenuation of ascertainment in vulnerable populations, leading to the concealment of health inequality.

Widening socioeconomic inequalities in Australian suicide, despite recent declines in suicide rates.

PURPOSE: This study aims to investigate trends in socioeconomic inequalities of suicide from 1979 to 2013 for Australian males and females aged 15-34 years and 35-64 years. METHODS: Data on suicides and population were obtained from national registries. An area-based measure of socioeconomic status (SES) was used, and categorized into low, middle, and high SES areas. Suicide rates for each SES groups were estimated using a negative binomial regression model, adjusted for confounders. Socioeconomic inequalities in suicide were assessed using absolute and relative risk of low-to-high SES areas. Secular changes in socioeconomic inequalities were assessed using trend tests for relative risk. RESULTS: For young males, there was an increase in socioeconomic inequality driven by a significant decrease in suicide rates in high SES areas. For older males, inequality in suicide increased by 29%, which was related to a marked increase in suicide rates in low SES areas. Inequalities in both young and older female suicides also increased. These increases occurred when corresponding suicide rates in high SES areas decreased. CONCLUSIONS: Recent widening socioeconomic inequalities in Australian suicide have been primarily associated with declines in suicide rates in high SES areas. However, an increasing inequality in older male suicide is linked with low SES. Efforts targeting people from poor areas, especially older males, should be considered when developing suicide prevention strategy.

Development of prediction models of stress and long-term disability among claimants to injury compensation systems: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to develop prognostic risk scores for compensation-related stress and long-term disability using markers collected within 3 months of a serious injury. DESIGN: Cohort study. Predictors were collected at baseline and at 3 months postinjury. Outcome data were collected at 72 months postinjury. SETTING: Hospitalised patients with serious injuries recruited from four major trauma hospitals in Australia. PARTICIPANTS: 332 participants who made claims for compensation for their injuries to a transport accident scheme or a workers' compensation scheme. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: 12-item WHO Disability Assessment Schedule and 6 items from the Claims Experience Survey. RESULTS: Our model for long-term disability had four predictors (unemployed at the time of injury, history of a psychiatric disorder at time of injury, post-traumatic stress disorder symptom severity at 3 months and disability at 3 months). This model had good discrimination (R2=0.37) and calibration. The disability risk score had a score range of 0-180, and at a threshold of 80 had sensitivity of 56% and specificity of 86%. Our model for compensation-related stress had five predictors (intensive care unit admission, discharged to home, number of traumatic events prior to injury, depression at 3 months and not working at 3 months). This model also had good discrimination (area under the curve=0.83) and calibration. The compensation-related stress risk score had score range of 0-220 and at a threshold of 100 had sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 75%. By combining these two scoring systems, we were able to identify the subgroup of claimants at highest risk of experiencing both outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The ability to identify at an early stage claimants at high risk of compensation-related stress and poor recovery is potentially valuable for claimants and the compensation agencies that serve them. The scoring systems we developed could be incorporated into the claims-handling processes to guide prevention-oriented interventions.

Multilevel Regression and Poststratification: A Modeling Approach to Estimating Population Quantities From Highly Selected Survey Samples.

Investigators in large-scale population health studies face increasing difficulties in recruiting representative samples of participants. Nonparticipation, item nonresponse, and attrition, when follow-up is involved, often result in highly selected samples even in well-designed studies. We aimed to assess the potential value of multilevel regression and poststratification, a method previously used to successfully forecast US presidential election results, for addressing biases due to nonparticipation in the estimation of population descriptive quantities in large cohort studies. The investigation was performed as an extensive case study using baseline data (2013-2014) from a large national health survey of Australian males (Ten to Men: The Australian Longitudinal Study on Male Health). Analyses were performed in the open-source Bayesian computational package RStan. Results showed greater consistency and precision across population subsets of varying sizes when compared with estimates obtained using conventional survey sampling weights. Estimates for smaller population subsets exhibited a greater degree of shrinkage towards the national estimate. Multilevel regression and poststratification provides a promising analytical approach to addressing potential participation bias in the estimation of population descriptive quantities from large-scale health surveys and cohort studies.

Experience of Health Care Services After a Suicide Attempt: Results from an Online Survey.

Failure to provide follow-up care after a suicide attempt is associated with increased risk of reattempt. This online survey examined the experiences of patients of the Australian health system after a suicide attempt. Just over half of the participants had a psychiatric assessment within 1 week of their attempt. Fewer than half believed they had been offered enough help. Low service satisfaction was associated with lower help-seeking intentions. Support for individuals who have made a suicide attempt needs to be enhanced, and an integrated approach to care is required, including improved referral pathways and staff attitudinal change.

Suicidal behaviour in Indigenous compared to non-Indigenous males in urban and regional Australia: Prevalence data suggest disparities increase across age groups.

OBJECTIVES: We compare the prevalence of suicidal thoughts and attempts between Indigenous and non-Indigenous males in urban and regional Australia, and examine the extent to which any disparity between Indigenous and non-Indigenous males varies across age groups. METHODS: We used data from the baseline wave of The Australian Longitudinal Study on Male Health (Ten to Men), a large-scale cohort study of Australian males aged 10-55 years residing in urban and regional areas. Indigenous identification was determined through participants self-reporting as Aboriginal, Torres Strait Islander or both. The survey collected data on suicidal thoughts in the preceding 2 weeks and lifetime suicide attempts. RESULTS: A total of 432 participants (2.7%) identified as Indigenous and 15,425 as non-Indigenous (97.3%). Indigenous males were twice as likely as non-Indigenous males to report recent suicidal thoughts (17.6% vs 9.4%; odds ratio = 2.1, p < 0.001) and more than three times as likely to report a suicide attempt in their lifetime (17.0% vs 5.1%; odds ratio = 3.6; p < 0.001). The prevalence of recent suicidal thoughts did not differ between Indigenous and non-Indigenous males in younger age groups, but a significant gap emerged among men aged 30-39 years and was largest among men aged 40-55 years. Similarly, the prevalence of lifetime suicide attempts did not differ between Indigenous and non-Indigenous males in the 14- to 17-years age group, but a disparity emerged in the 18- to 24-years age group and was even larger among males aged 25 years and older. CONCLUSION: Our paper presents unique data on suicidal thoughts and attempts among a broad age range of Indigenous and non-Indigenous males. The disparity in the prevalence of suicidal thoughts increased across age groups, which is in contrast to the large disparity between the Indigenous and non-Indigenous suicide rates in younger age groups.

Socio-Economic Position and Suicidal Ideation in Men.

People in low socio-economic positions are over-represented in suicide statistics and are at heightened risk for non-fatal suicidal thoughts and behaviours. Few studies have tried to tease out the relationship between individual-level and area-level socio-economic position, however. We used data from Ten to Men (the Australian Longitudinal Study on Male Health) to investigate the relationship between individual-level and area-level socio-economic position and suicidal thinking in 12,090 men. We used a measure of unemployment/employment and occupational skill level as our individual-level indicator of socio-economic position. We used the Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage (a composite multidimensional construct created by the Australian Bureau of Statistics that combines information from a range of area-level variables, including the prevalence of unemployment and employment in low skilled occupations) as our area-level indicator. We assessed suicidal thinking using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). We found that even after controlling for common predictors of suicidal thinking; low individual-level and area-level socio-economic position heightened risk. Individual-level socio-economic position appeared to exert the greater influence of the two; however. There is an onus on policy makers and planners from within and outside the mental health sector to take individual- and area-level socio-economic position into account when they are developing strategic initiatives.