Sonographic assessment of low muscle quantity identifies mortality risk during COVID-19: a prospective single-centre study.

BACKGROUND: Assessment of muscle quantity by sonographic muscle indices could help identify patients at risk for fatal outcome during coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). The aim of this study was to explore sonographic muscle indices as predictors of COVID-19 outcome and to test the feasibility of sonographic muscle measurement in an isolation context. METHODS: Muscle indices, derived from the psoas muscle or thigh muscles, were quantified by sonography in a cohort of patients without COVID-19 to obtain reference values for low muscle quantity. Gender-specific median of different muscle indices were defined as threshold value for low muscle quantity. The prognostic relevance of low muscle quantity, was prospectively explored in two cohorts of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Optimal muscle index cutoff values predictive for 30 day mortality during COVID-19 were determined by receiver operating characteristic-area under the curve and Youden index calculation. Muscle quantity and known prognostic factors of COVID-19 were analysed by multivariable log-regression. RESULTS: Compared with other muscle indices, the psoas muscle area index (PMAI) showed the most favourable characteristics to predict outcome of COVID-19 disease. Sonographic morphometry of patients without COVID-19 (n = 136) revealed a gender-specific median for PMAI (male: 291.1 mm2 /m2 , female 260.6 mm2 /m2 ) as threshold value of low muscle quantity. Subsequently, COVID-19 patients (Cohort I: n = 58; Cohort II: n = 55) were prospectively assessed by bedside sonography. The studied COVID-19 patients developed a critical course of disease in 22.4% (Cohort I: n = 13/58) and 34.5% (Cohort II: n = 20/55). Mortality rate reached 12.1% (Cohort I: n = 7/58) and 20.0% (Cohort I: n = 11/55) within 30 days of follow up. COVID-19 patients with a PMAI below the gender-specific median showed a higher 30 day mortality in both COVID-19 cohorts (log rank, P < 0.05). The optimal PMAI cutoff value (206 mm2 /m2 ) predicted 30 day mortality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients with a sensitivity of 72% and specificity of 78.5% (receiver operating characteristic-area under the curve: 0.793, 95% confidence interval 0.671-0.914, P = 0.008). Multivariable log-regression analysis of PMAI, age, gender, BMI and comorbidities confirmed an independent association of low PMAI with 30 day mortality of COVID-19 patients (P = 0.018). CONCLUSIONS: Sonographic morphometry provides reliable muscle quantification under hygienic precautions and allows risk stratification of patients with COVID-19.

Cost evaluation of PAGE-B risk score guided HCC surveillance in patients with treated chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND: The PAGE-B score (Platelet Age GEnder-HBV) selects chronic hepatitis B (cHB) patients showing no relevant 5-year risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We, therefore, explored potential cost reduction following the introduction of a PAGE-B tailored ultrasound screening in a single center cohort of cHB patients receiving stable antiviral therapy. METHODS: cHB patients attending throughout the year 2018 were documented. Patients eligible for PAGE-B score were classified into high (≥18 points), intermediate (10-17 points) and low (≤9 points) HCC risk groups. Patients of the low HCC risk group could postpone HCC screening to reduce HCC screening expenses. Full costs for hepatic ultrasound were assessed. RESULTS: Throughout the year cHB patients (n = 607) attended our clinic, which included PAGE-B eligible patients (n = 227, 37.4%) of whom n = 94 (15.8%) were allocated to the low HCC risk group. Sonographic HCC screening during a median exam time of 12.4 min (IQR 9.2-17.2) resulted in total costs of 22.82 Euro/exam. Additional opportunistic expenses caused by patient's lost earnings or productivity were 15.6-17.5 €/exam and 26.7 €/exam, respectively. Following a PAGE-B tailored HCC screening at our institution annual full costs for cHB patients could be reduced by 15.51%, which equals a cost reduction by 1.91% for our total sonography unit. In comparison, 1.35% up to 7.65% of HBV-infected patients of Caucasian descent could postpone HCC screening according to population-based estimates from Germany. CONCLUSIONS: PAGE-B risk score adapted screening for HCC is an efficient and cost neutral tool to reduce costs for sonography in Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving antiviral treatment.