Antibiotic stories: a mixed-methods, multi-country analysis of household antibiotic use in Malawi, Uganda and Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: As concerns about the prevalence of infections that are resistant to available antibiotics increase, attention has turned toward the use of these medicines both within and outside of formal healthcare settings. Much of what is known about use beyond formal settings is informed by survey-based research. Few studies to date have used comparative, mixed-methods approaches to render visible patterns of use within and between settings as well as wider points of context shaping these patterns. DESIGN: This article analyses findings from mixed-methods anthropological studies of antibiotic use in a range of rural and urban settings in Zimbabwe, Malawi and Uganda between 2018 and 2020. All used a 'drug bag' survey tool to capture the frequency and types of antibiotics used among 1811 households. We then undertook observations and interviews in residential settings, with health providers and key stakeholders to better understand the stories behind the most-used antibiotics. RESULTS: The most self-reported 'frequently used' antibiotics across settings were amoxicillin, cotrimoxazole and metronidazole. The stories behind their use varied between settings, reflecting differences in the configuration of health systems and antibiotic supplies. At the same time, these stories reveal cross-cutting features and omissions of contemporary global health programming that shape the contours of antibiotic (over)use at national and local levels. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings challenge the predominant focus of stewardship frameworks on the practices of antibiotic end users. We suggest future interventions could consider systems-rather than individuals-as stewards of antibiotics, reducing the need to rely on these medicines to fix other issues of inequity, productivity and security.

Rapid shifts in the age-specific burden of malaria following successful control interventions in four regions of Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Malaria control using long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) has been associated with reduced transmission throughout Africa. However, the impact of transmission reduction on the age distribution of malaria cases remains unclear. METHODS: Over a 10-year period (January 2009 to July 2018), outpatient surveillance data from four health facilities in Uganda were used to estimate the impact of control interventions on temporal changes in the age distribution of malaria cases using multinomial regression. Interventions included mass distribution of LLINs at all sites and IRS at two sites. RESULTS: Overall, 896,550 patient visits were included in the study; 211,632 aged < 5 years, 171,166 aged 5-15 years and 513,752 > 15 years. Over time, the age distribution of patients not suspected of malaria and those malaria negative either declined or remained the same across all sites. In contrast, the age distribution of suspected and confirmed malaria cases increased across all four sites. In the two LLINs-only sites, the proportion of malaria cases in < 5 years decreased from 31 to 16% and 35 to 25%, respectively. In the two sites receiving LLINs plus IRS, these proportions decreased from 58 to 30% and 64 to 47%, respectively. Similarly, in the LLINs-only sites, the proportion of malaria cases > 15 years increased from 40 to 61% and 29 to 39%, respectively. In the sites receiving LLINs plus IRS, these proportions increased from 19 to 44% and 18 to 31%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate a shift in the burden of malaria from younger to older individuals following implementation of successful control interventions, which has important implications for malaria prevention, surveillance, case management and control strategies.

Practical Implications of a Relationship between Health Management Information System and Community Cohort-Based Malaria Incidence Rates.

Global malaria burden is reducing with effective control interventions, and surveillance is vital to maintain progress. Health management information system (HMIS) data provide a powerful surveillance tool; however, its estimates of burden need to be better understood for effectiveness. We aimed to investigate the relationship between HMIS and cohort incidence rates and identify sources of bias in HMIS-based incidence. Malaria incidence was estimated using HMIS data from 15 health facilities in three subcounties in Uganda. This was compared with a gold standard of representative cohort studies conducted in children aged 0.5 to < 11 years, followed concurrently in these sites. Between October 2011 and September 2014, 153,079 children were captured through HMISs and 995 followed up through enhanced community cohorts in Walukuba, Kihihi, and Nagongera subcounties. Although HMISs substantially underestimated malaria incidence in all sites compared with data from the cohort studies, there was a strong linear relationship between these rates in the lower transmission settings (Walukuba and Kihihi), but not the lowest HMIS performance highest transmission site (Nagongera), with calendar year as a significant modifier. Although health facility accessibility, availability, and recording completeness were associated with HMIS incidence, they were not significantly associated with bias in estimates from any site. Health management information systems still require improvements; however, their strong predictive power of unbiased malaria burden when improved highlights the important role they could play as a cost-effective tool for monitoring trends and estimating impact of control interventions. This has important implications for malaria control in low-resource, high-burden countries.

Data value and care value in the practice of health systems: A case study in Uganda.

In anthropology, interest in how values are created, maintained and changed has been reinvigorated. In this case study, we draw on this literature to interrogate concerns about the relationship between data collection and the delivery of patient care within global health. We followed a pilot study conducted in Kayunga, Uganda that aimed to improve the collection of health systems data in five public health centres. We undertook ethnographic research from July 2015 to September 2016 in health centres, at project workshops, meetings and training sessions. This included three months of observations by three fieldworkers; in-depth interviews with health workers (n = 15) and stakeholders (n = 5); and six focus group discussions with health workers. We observed that measurement, calculation and narrative practices could be assigned care-value or data-value and that the attempt to improve data collection within health facilities transferred 'data-value' into health centres with little consideration among project staff for its impact on care. We document acts of acquiescence and resistance to data-value by health workers. We also describe the rare moments when senior health workers reconciled these two forms of value, and care-value and data-value were enacted simultaneously. In contrast to many anthropological accounts, our analysis suggests that data-value and care-value are not necessarily conflicting. Actors seeking to make changes in health systems must, however, take into account local forms of value and devise health systems interventions that reinforce and enrich existing ethically driven practice.

Assessment of community-level effects of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in schoolchildren in Jinja, Uganda (START-IPT trial): a cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) is a well established malaria control intervention. Evidence that delivering IPT to schoolchildren could provide community-level benefits is limited. We did a cluster-randomised controlled trial to assess the effect of IPT of primary schoolchildren with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) on indicators of malaria transmission in the community, in Jinja, Uganda. METHODS: We included 84 clusters, each comprising one primary school and the 100 closest available households. The clusters were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive IPT with DP or standard care (control) by restricted randomisation to ensure balance by geography and school type. Children in intervention schools received IPT monthly for up to six rounds (June to December, 2014). We did cross-sectional community surveys in randomly selected households at baseline and in January to April, 2015, during which we measured participants' temperatures and obtained finger-prick blood smears for measurement of parasite prevalence by microscopy. We also did entomological surveys 1 night per month in households from 20 randomly selected IPT and 20 control clusters. The primary trial outcome was parasite prevalence in the final community survey. The primary entomological survey outcome was the annual entomological inoculation rate (aEIR) from July, 2014, to April, 2015. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02009215. FINDINGS: Among 23 280 students registered in the 42 intervention schools, 10 079 (43%) aged 5-20 years were enrolled and received at least one dose of DP. 9286 (92%) of 10 079 received at least one full course of DP (three doses). Community-level parasite prevalence was lower in the intervention clusters than in the control clusters (19% vs 23%, adjusted risk ratio 0·85, 95% CI 0·73-1·00, p=0·05). The aEIR was lower in the intervention group than in the control group, but not significantly so (10·1 vs 15·2 infective bites per person, adjusted incidence rate ratio 0·80, 95% CI 0·36-1·80, p=0·59). INTERPRETATION: IPT of schoolchildren with DP might have a positive effect on community-level malaria indicators and be operationally feasible. Studies with greater IPT coverage are needed. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, and Wellcome Trust.

Measuring Socioeconomic Inequalities in Relation to Malaria Risk: A Comparison of Metrics in Rural Uganda.

Socioeconomic position (SEP) is an important risk factor for malaria, but there is no consensus on how to measure SEP in malaria studies. We evaluated the relative strength of four indicators of SEP in predicting malaria risk in Nagongera, Uganda. A total of 318 children resident in 100 households were followed for 36 months to measure parasite prevalence routinely every 3 months and malaria incidence by passive case detection. Household SEP was determined using: 1) two wealth indices, 2) income, 3) occupation, and 4) education. Wealth Index I (reference) included only asset ownership variables. Wealth Index II additionally included food security and house construction variables, which may directly affect malaria. In multivariate analysis, only Wealth Index II and income were associated with the human biting rate, only Wealth Indices I and II were associated with parasite prevalence, and only caregiver's education was associated with malaria incidence. This is the first evaluation of metrics beyond wealth and consumption indices for measuring the association between SEP and malaria. The wealth index still predicted malaria risk after excluding variables directly associated with malaria, but the strength of association was lower. In this setting, wealth indices, income, and education were stronger predictors of socioeconomic differences in malaria risk than occupation.

Behind the scenes of the PRIME intervention: designing a complex intervention to improve malaria care at public health centres in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: In Uganda, health system challenges limit access to good quality healthcare and contribute to slow progress on malaria control. We developed a complex intervention (PRIME), which was designed to improve quality of care for malaria at public health centres. OBJECTIVE: Responding to calls for increased transparency, we describe the PRIME intervention's design process, rationale, and final content and reflect on the choices and challenges encountered during the design of this complex intervention. DESIGN: To develop the intervention, we followed a multistep approach, including the following: 1) formative research to identify intervention target areas and objectives; 2) prioritization of intervention components; 3) review of relevant evidence; 4) development of intervention components; 5) piloting and refinement of workshop modules; and 6) consolidation of the PRIME intervention theories of change to articulate why and how the intervention was hypothesized to produce desired outcomes. We aimed to develop an intervention that was evidence-based, grounded in theory, and appropriate for the study context; could be evaluated within a randomized controlled trial; and had the potential to be scaled up sustainably. RESULTS: The process of developing the PRIME intervention package was lengthy and dynamic. The final intervention package consisted of four components: 1) training in fever case management and use of rapid diagnostic tests for malaria (mRDTs); 2) workshops in health centre management; 3) workshops in patient-centred services; and 4) provision of mRDTs and antimalarials when stocks ran low. CONCLUSIONS: The slow and iterative process of intervention design contrasted with the continually shifting study context. We highlight the considerations and choices made at each design stage, discussing elements we included and why, as well as those that were ultimately excluded. Reflection on and reporting of 'behind the scenes' accounts of intervention design may improve the design, assessment, and generalizability of complex interventions and their evaluations.

Challenging logics of complex intervention trials: community perspectives of a health care improvement intervention in rural Uganda.

Health systems in many African countries are failing to provide populations with access to good quality health care. Morbidity and mortality from curable diseases such as malaria remain high. The PRIME trial in Tororo, rural Uganda, designed and tested an intervention to improve care at health centres, with the aim of reducing ill-health due to malaria in surrounding communities. This paper presents the impact and context of this trial from the perspective of community members in the study area. Fieldwork was carried out for a year from the start of the intervention in June 2011, and involved informal observation and discussions as well as 13 focus group discussions with community members, 10 in-depth interviews with local stakeholders, and 162 context descriptions recorded through quarterly interviews with community members, health workers and district officials. Community members observed a small improvement in quality of care at most, but not all, intervention health centres. However, this was diluted by other shortfalls in health services beyond the scope of the intervention. Patients continued to seek care at health centres they considered inadequate as well as positioning themselves and their children to access care through other sources such as research and nongovernmental organization (NGO) projects. These findings point to challenges of designing and delivering interventions within a paradigm that requires factorial (reduced to predictable factors) problem definition with easily actionable and evaluable solutions by small-scale projects. Such requirements mean that interventions often work on the periphery of a health system rather than tackling the murky political and economic realities that shape access to care but are harder to change or evaluate with randomized controlled trials. Highly projectified settings further reduce the ability to genuinely 'control' for different health care access scenarios. We argue for a raised consciousness of how evaluation paradigms impact on intervention choices.

The PROCESS study: a protocol to evaluate the implementation, mechanisms of effect and context of an intervention to enhance public health centres in Tororo, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Despite significant investments into health improvement programmes in Uganda, health indicators and access to healthcare remain poor across the country. The PRIME trial aims to evaluate the impact of a complex intervention delivered in public health centres on health outcomes of children and management of malaria in rural Uganda. The intervention consists of four components: Health Centre Management; Fever Case Management; Patient- Centered Services; and support for supplies of malaria diagnostics and antimalarial drugs. METHODS: The PROCESS study will use mixed methods to evaluate the processes, mechanisms of change, and context of the PRIME intervention by addressing five objectives. First, to develop a comprehensive logic model of the intervention, articulating the project's hypothesised pathways to trial outcomes. Second, to evaluate the implementation of the intervention, including health worker training, health centre management tools, and the supply of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) and rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for malaria. Third, to understand mechanisms of change of the intervention components, including testing hypotheses and interpreting realities of the intervention, including resistance, in context. Fourth, to develop a contextual record over time of factors that may have affected implementation of the intervention, mechanisms of change, and trial outcomes, including factors at population, health centre and district levels. Fifth, to capture broader expected and unexpected impacts of the intervention and trial activities among community members, health centre workers, and private providers. Methods will include intervention logic mapping, questionnaires, recorded consultations, in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and contextual data documentation. DISCUSSION: The findings of this PROCESS study will be interpreted alongside the PRIME trial results. This will enable a greater ability to generalise the findings of the main trial. The investigators will attempt to assess which methods are most informative in such evaluations of complex interventions in low-resource settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01024426.

Malaria in Uganda: challenges to control on the long road to elimination: I. Epidemiology and current control efforts.

Malaria remains one of the leading health problems of the developing world, and Uganda bears a particularly large burden from the disease. Our understanding is limited by a lack of reliable data, but it is clear that the prevalence of malaria infection, incidence of disease, and mortality from severe malaria all remain very high. Uganda has made progress in implementing key malaria control measures, in particular distribution of insecticide-impregnated bednets, indoor residual spraying of insecticides, utilization of artemisinin-based combination therapy to treat uncomplicated malaria, and provision of intermittent preventive therapy for pregnant women. However, despite enthusiasm regarding the potential for the elimination of malaria in other areas, there is no convincing evidence that the burden of malaria has decreased in Uganda in recent years. Major challenges to malaria control in Uganda include very high malaria transmission intensity, inadequate health care resources, a weak health system, inadequate understanding of malaria epidemiology and the impact of control interventions, increasing resistance of parasites to drugs and of mosquitoes to insecticides, inappropriate case management, inadequate utilization of drugs to prevent malaria, and inadequate epidemic preparedness and response. Despite these challenges, prospects for the control of malaria have improved, and with attention to underlying challenges, progress toward the control of malaria in Uganda can be expected.

Likely health outcomes for untreated acute febrile illness in the tropics in decision and economic models; a Delphi survey.

BACKGROUND: Modelling is widely used to inform decisions about management of malaria and acute febrile illnesses. Most models depend on estimates of the probability that untreated patients with malaria or bacterial illnesses will progress to severe disease or death. However, data on these key parameters are lacking and assumptions are frequently made based on expert opinion. Widely diverse opinions can lead to conflicting outcomes in models they inform. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A Delphi survey was conducted with malaria experts aiming to reach consensus on key parameters for public health and economic models, relating to the outcome of untreated febrile illnesses. Survey questions were stratified by malaria transmission intensity, patient age, and HIV prevalence. The impact of the variability in opinion on decision models is illustrated with a model previously used to assess the cost-effectiveness of malaria rapid diagnostic tests. Some consensus was reached around the probability that patients from higher transmission settings with untreated malaria would progress to severe disease (median 3%, inter-quartile range (IQR) 1-5%), and the probability that a non-malaria illness required antibiotics in areas of low HIV prevalence (median 20%). Children living in low transmission areas were considered to be at higher risk of progressing to severe malaria (median 30%, IQR 10-58%) than those from higher transmission areas (median 13%, IQR 7-30%). Estimates of the probability of dying from severe malaria were high in all settings (medians 60-73%). However, opinions varied widely for most parameters, and did not converge on resurveying. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the uncertainty around potential consequences of untreated malaria and bacterial illnesses. The lack of consensus on most parameters, the wide range of estimates, and the impact of variability in estimates on model outputs, demonstrate the importance of sensitivity analysis for decision models employing expert opinion. Results of such models should be interpreted cautiously. The diversity of expert opinion should be recognised when policy options are debated.

An economic evaluation of home management of malaria in Uganda: an interactive Markov model.

BACKGROUND: Home management of malaria (HMM), promoting presumptive treatment of febrile children in the community, is advocated to improve prompt appropriate treatment of malaria in Africa. The cost-effectiveness of HMM is likely to vary widely in different settings and with the antimalarial drugs used. However, no data on the cost-effectiveness of HMM programmes are available. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A Markov model was constructed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of HMM as compared to conventional care for febrile illnesses in children without HMM. The model was populated with data from Uganda, but is designed to be interactive, allowing the user to adjust certain parameters, including the antimalarials distributed. The model calculates the cost per disability adjusted life year averted and presents the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio compared to a threshold value. Model output is stratified by level of malaria transmission and the probability that a child would receive appropriate care from a health facility, to indicate the circumstances in which HMM is likely to be cost-effective. The model output suggests that the cost-effectiveness of HMM varies with malaria transmission, the probability of appropriate care, and the drug distributed. Where transmission is high and the probability of appropriate care is limited, HMM is likely to be cost-effective from a provider perspective. Even with the most effective antimalarials, HMM remains an attractive intervention only in areas of high malaria transmission and in medium transmission areas with a lower probability of appropriate care. HMM is generally not cost-effective in low transmission areas, regardless of which antimalarial is distributed. Considering the analysis from the societal perspective decreases the attractiveness of HMM. CONCLUSION: Syndromic HMM for children with fever may be a useful strategy for higher transmission settings with limited health care and diagnosis, but is not appropriate for all settings. HMM may need to be tailored to specific settings, accounting for local malaria transmission intensity and availability of health services.

Home management of malaria with artemether-lumefantrine compared with standard care in urban Ugandan children: a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Home management of malaria-the presumptive treatment of febrile children with antimalarial drugs-is advocated to ensure prompt effective treatment of the disease. We assessed the effect of home delivery of artemether-lumefantrine on the incidence of antimalarial treatment and on clinical outcomes in children from an urban setting with fairly low malaria transmission. METHODS: In Kampala, Uganda, 437 children aged between 1 and 6 years from 325 households were randomly assigned by a computer-generated sequence to receive home delivery of prepackaged artemether-lumefantrine for presumptive treatment of febrile illnesses (n=225) or current standard of care (n=212). Randomisation was done by household after a pilot period of 1 month. After randomisation, study participants were followed up for an additional 12 months and information on their health and treatment of illnesses was obtained by use of monthly questionnaires and household diaries, which were completed by the participants' carers. The primary outcome was treatment incidence density per person-year. Analysis of the primary outcome was done on the modified intention-to-treat population, which included all participants apart from those excluded before data collection. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00115921. FINDINGS: Eight participants in the home management group and four in the standard care group were excluded before data collection; therefore, the primary analysis was done in 217 and 208 participants, respectively. The home management group received nearly twice the number of antimalarial treatments as the standard care group (4.66 per person-year vs 2.53 per person-year; incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.72, 95% CI 1.43-2.06, p<0.0001), and nearly five times the number given to children with microscopically confirmed malaria in a comparable cohort of children (4.66 per person-year vs 1.03 per person-year, IRR 5.19, 95% CI 4.24-6.35, p<0.0001). Clinical data were available for 189 children in the home management group and 176 in the control group at study end; the main reasons for exclusion were movement out of the study area or loss to follow-up. The proportion of participants with parasitaemia at final assessment in the intervention group was lower than in the control group (four [2%] vs 17 [10%], p=0.006), but there were no other differences in standard malariometric indices, including anaemia. Serious adverse events were captured retrospectively. One child died in each group (home management-severe pneumonia and possible septicaemia; standard care-presumed respiratory failure). INTERPRETATION: Although home management of malaria led to prompt treatment of fever, there was little effect on clinical outcomes. The substantial over-treatment suggests that artemether-lumefantrine provided in the home might not be appropriate for large urban areas or settings with fairly low malaria transmission. FUNDING: Gates Malaria Partnership.

An interactive model for the assessment of the economic costs and benefits of different rapid diagnostic tests for malaria.

BACKGROUND: Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for malaria are increasingly being considered for routine use in Africa. However, many RDTs are available and selecting the ideal test for a particular setting is challenging. The appropriateness of RDT choice depends in part on patient population and epidemiological setting, and on decision makers' priorities. The model presented (available online) can be used by decision makers to evaluate alternative RDTs and assess the circumstances under which their use is justified on economic grounds. METHODS: An interactive model based on a decision-tree structure and a cost-benefit framework was designed to compare different diagnostic strategies. Variables included in the model can be modified by users, including RDT and treatment costs, test accuracies (sensitivity and specificity), probabilities for developing severe illness, case-fatality rates, and clinician response to negative test results. To illustrate how the model can be used, a comparison is made of presumptive treatment with two available RDTs, one detecting histidine-rich protein-2 (HRP2) and one detecting Plasmodium lactate dehydrogenase (pLDH). Data inputs were obtained from a study comparing the RDTs at seven sites in Uganda. RESULTS: Applying the model in the illustrative Ugandan context demonstrates that if only direct expenditures are considered, the pLDH test is the preferred option for adult patients except in high transmission settings, while young children are best treated presumptively in all settings. When health outcomes are considered, the HRP2 test gains an advantage in almost all settings and for all age groups. Introducing possible adverse consequences of using an antimalarial into the analysis, such as adverse drug reactions, or the development of resistance, considerably strengthens the case for using RDTs. When the model is adjusted to account for less than complete adherence to test results, the efficiency of using RDTs drops sharply. CONCLUSION: Model output demonstrates that which test is preferable varies by location, depending on factors such as malaria transmission intensity and the costs and accuracies of the RDTs under consideration. Despite the uncertainties and complexities involved, adaptable models such as the one presented here can serve as a practical tool to assist policy makers in efficient deployment of new technologies.