The cascade of care for latent tuberculosis infection in congregate settings: A national cohort analysis, Korea, 2017-2018.

Background: In 2017, Korea implemented a nationwide project to screen and treat latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in high-risk for transmission public congregate settings. We aimed to assess programme success using a cascade of care framework. Materials and methods: We undertook a cohort study of people from three congregate settings screened between March 2017 and December 2018: (1) first-grade high school students, (2) employees of educational institutions, (3) employees of social welfare facilities. We report percentages of participants with LTBI completing each step in the cascade of care model. Poisson regression models were used to determine factors associated with not visiting clinics, not initiating treatment, and not completing treatment. Results: Among the 96,439 participants who had a positive interferon-gamma release assay result, the percentage visiting clinics for further assessment, to initiate treatment, and who then completed treatment were 50.7, 34.7, and 28.9%, respectively. Compared to those aged 20-34 years, individuals aged < 20 years and aged ≥ 65 years were less likely to visit clinics, though more likely to complete treatment once initiated. Using public health centres rather than private hospitals was associated with people "not initiating treatment" (adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 3.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.95-3.86). Nine-month isoniazid monotherapy therapy was associated with "not completing treatment," compared to 3-month isoniazid and rifampin therapy (aRR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.16-1.41). Conclusion: Among participants with LTBI from three congregate settings, less than one third completed treatment. Age, treatment centre, and initial regimen were important determinants of losses to care through the cascade.

Relational Dynamics of Treatment Behavior Among Individuals with Tuberculosis in High-Income Countries: A Scoping Review.

Although tuberculosis (TB) incidence has significantly declined in high-income, low-incidence (HILI) countries, challenges remain in managing TB in vulnerable populations who may struggle to stay on anti-TB treatment (ATT). Factors associated with non-adherence to ATT are well documented; however, adherence is often narrowly conceived as a fixed binary variable that places emphasis on individual agency and the act of taking medicines, rather than on the demands of being on treatment more broadly. Further, the mechanisms through which documented factors act upon the experience of being on treatment are poorly understood. Adopting a relational approach that emphasizes the embeddedness of individuals within dynamic social, structural, and health systems contexts, this scoping review aims to synthesize qualitative evidence on experiences of being on ATT and mechanisms through which socio-ecological factors influence adherence in HILI countries. Six electronic databases were searched for peer-reviewed literature published in English between January 1990 and May 2020. Additional studies were obtained by searching references of included studies. Narrative synthesis was used to analyze qualitative data extracted from included studies. Of 28 included studies, the majority (86%) reported on health systems factors, followed by personal characteristics (82%), structural influences (61%), social factors (57%), and treatment-related factors (50%). Included studies highlighted three points that underpin a relational approach to ATT behavior: 1) individual motivation and capacity to take ATT is dynamic and intertwined with, rather than separate from, social, health systems, and structural factors; 2) individuals' pre-existing experiences of health-seeking influence their views on treatment and their ability to commit to long-term regular medicine-taking; and 3) social, cultural, and political contexts play an important role in mediating how specific factors work to support or hinder ATT adherence behavior in different settings. Based on our analysis, we suggest that person-centered clinical management of tuberculosis should 1) acknowledge the ways in which ATT both disrupts and is managed within the everyday lives of individuals with TB; 2) appreciate that individuals' circumstances and the support and resources they can access may change over the course of treatment; and 3) display sensitivity towards context-specific social and cultural norms affecting individual and collective experiences of being on ATT.

Temporal trends and forecasting of COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths in Scotland using a national real-time patient-level data platform: a statistical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, national-level surveillance platforms with real-time individual person-level data are required to monitor and predict the epidemiological and clinical profile of COVID-19 and inform public health policy. We aimed to create a national dataset of patient-level data in Scotland to identify temporal trends and COVID-19 risk factors, and to develop a novel statistical prediction model to forecast COVID-19-related deaths and hospitalisations during the second wave. METHODS: We established a surveillance platform to monitor COVID-19 temporal trends using person-level primary care data (including age, sex, socioeconomic status, urban or rural residence, care home residence, and clinical risk factors) linked to data on SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR tests, hospitalisations, and deaths for all individuals resident in Scotland who were registered with a general practice on Feb 23, 2020. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the association between clinical risk groups and time to hospitalisation and death. A survival prediction model derived from data from March 1 to June 23, 2020, was created to forecast hospital admissions and deaths from October to December, 2020. We fitted a generalised additive spline model to daily SARS-CoV-2 cases over the previous 10 weeks and used this to create a 28-day forecast of the number of daily cases. The age and risk group pattern of cases in the previous 3 weeks was then used to select a stratified sample of individuals from our cohort who had not previously tested positive, with future cases in each group sampled from a multinomial distribution. We then used their patient characteristics (including age, sex, comorbidities, and socioeconomic status) to predict their probability of hospitalisation or death. FINDINGS: Our cohort included 5 384 819 people, representing 98·6% of the entire estimated population residing in Scotland during 2020. Hospitalisation and death among those testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 between March 1 and June 23, 2020, were associated with several patient characteristics, including male sex (hospitalisation hazard ratio [HR] 1·47, 95% CI 1·38-1·57; death HR 1·62, 1·49-1·76) and various comorbidities, with the highest hospitalisation HR found for transplantation (4·53, 1·87-10·98) and the highest death HR for myoneural disease (2·33, 1·46-3·71). For those testing positive, there were decreasing temporal trends in hospitalisation and death rates. The proportion of positive tests among older age groups (>40 years) and those with at-risk comorbidities increased during October, 2020. On Nov 10, 2020, the projected number of hospitalisations for Dec 8, 2020 (28 days later) was 90 per day (95% prediction interval 55-125) and the projected number of deaths was 21 per day (12-29). INTERPRETATION: The estimated incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection based on positive tests recorded in this unique data resource has provided forecasts of hospitalisation and death rates for the whole of Scotland. These findings were used by the Scottish Government to inform their response to reduce COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme, UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund, Health Data Research UK, Scottish Government Director General Health and Social Care.

Trade-offs between cost and accuracy in active case finding for tuberculosis: A dynamic modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Active case finding (ACF) may be valuable in tuberculosis (TB) control, but questions remain about its optimum implementation in different settings. For example, smear microscopy misses up to half of TB cases, yet is cheap and detects the most infectious TB cases. What, then, is the incremental value of using more sensitive and specific, yet more costly, tests such as Xpert MTB/RIF in ACF in a high-burden setting? METHODS AND FINDINGS: We constructed a dynamic transmission model of TB, calibrated to be consistent with an urban slum population in India. We applied this model to compare the potential cost and impact of 2 hypothetical approaches following initial symptom screening: (i) 'moderate accuracy' testing employing a microscopy-like test (i.e., lower cost but also lower accuracy) for bacteriological confirmation and (ii) 'high accuracy' testing employing an Xpert-like test (higher cost but also higher accuracy, while also detecting rifampicin resistance). Results suggest that ACF using a moderate-accuracy test could in fact cost more overall than using a high-accuracy test. Under an illustrative budget of US$20 million in a slum population of 2 million, high-accuracy testing would avert 1.14 (95% credible interval 0.75-1.99, with p = 0.28) cases relative to each case averted by moderate-accuracy testing. Test specificity is a key driver: High-accuracy testing would be significantly more impactful at the 5% significance level, as long as the high-accuracy test has specificity at least 3 percentage points greater than the moderate-accuracy test. Additional factors promoting the impact of high-accuracy testing are that (i) its ability to detect rifampicin resistance can lead to long-term cost savings in second-line treatment and (ii) its higher sensitivity contributes to the overall cases averted by ACF. Amongst the limitations of this study, our cost model has a narrow focus on the commodity costs of testing and treatment; our estimates should not be taken as indicative of the overall cost of ACF. There remains uncertainty about the true specificity of tests such as smear and Xpert-like tests in ACF, relating to the accuracy of the reference standard under such conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that cheaper diagnostics do not necessarily translate to less costly ACF, as any savings from the test cost can be strongly outweighed by factors including false-positive TB treatment, reduced sensitivity, and foregone savings in second-line treatment. In resource-limited settings, it is therefore important to take all of these factors into account when designing cost-effective strategies for ACF.

Impact of COVID-19 on accident and emergency attendances and emergency and planned hospital admissions in Scotland: an interrupted time-series analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Following the outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus and the subsequent global spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), health systems and the populations who use them have faced unprecedented challenges. We aimed to measure the impact of COVID-19 on the uptake of hospital-based care at a national level. DESIGN: The study period (weeks ending 5 January to 28 June 2020) encompassed the pandemic announcement by the World Health Organization and the initiation of the UK lockdown. We undertook an interrupted time-series analysis to evaluate the impact of these events on hospital services at a national level and across demographics, clinical specialties and National Health Service Health Boards. SETTING: Scotland, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Patients receiving hospital care from National Health Service Scotland. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Accident and emergency (A&E) attendances, and emergency and planned hospital admissions measured using the relative change of weekly counts in 2020 to the averaged counts for equivalent weeks in 2018 and 2019. RESULTS: Before the pandemic announcement, the uptake of hospital care was largely consistent with historical levels. This was followed by sharp drops in all outcomes until UK lockdown, where activity began to steadily increase. This time-period saw an average reduction of -40.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -47.7 to -33.7) in A&E attendances, -25.8% (95% CI: -31.1 to -20.4) in emergency hospital admissions and -60.9% (95% CI: -66.1 to -55.7) in planned hospital admissions, in comparison to the 2018-2019 averages. All subgroup trends were broadly consistent within outcomes, but with notable variations across age groups, specialties and geography. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 has had a profoundly disruptive impact on hospital-based care across National Health Service Scotland. This has likely led to an adverse effect on non-COVID-19-related illnesses, increasing the possibility of potentially avoidable morbidity and mortality. Further research is required to elucidate these impacts.

IMPACT study on intervening with a manualised package to achieve treatment adherence in people with tuberculosis: protocol paper for a mixed-methods study, including a pilot randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Compared with the rest of the UK and Western Europe, England has high rates of the infectious disease tuberculosis (TB). TB is curable, although treatment is for at least 6 months and longer when disease is drug resistant. If patients miss too many doses (non-adherence), they may transmit infection for longer and the infecting bacteria may develop resistance to the standard drugs used for treatment. Non-adherence may therefore risk both their health and that of others. Within England, certain population groups are thought to be at higher risk of non-adherence, but the factors contributing to this have been insufficiently determined, as have the best interventions to promote adherence. The objective of this study was to develop a manualised package of interventions for use as part of routine care within National Health Services to address the social and cultural factors that lead to poor adherence to treatment for TB disease. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study uses a mixed-methods approach, with six study components. These are (1) scoping reviews of the literature; (2) qualitative research with patients, carers and healthcare professionals; (3) development of the intervention; (4) a pilot randomised controlled trial of the manualised intervention; (5) a process evaluation to examine clinical utility; and (6) a cost analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study received ethics approval on 24 December 2018 from Camberwell St. Giles Ethics Committee, UK (REC reference 18/LO/1818). Findings will be published and disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations, published in an end of study report to our funder (the National Institute for Health Research, UK) and presented to key stakeholders. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN95243114 SECONDARY IDENTIFYING NUMBERS: University College London/University College London Hospitals Joint Research Office 17/0726.National Institute for Health Research, UK 16/88/06.

Comparing different technologies for active TB case-finding among the homeless: a transmission-dynamic modelling study.

Homeless persons have elevated risk of tuberculosis (TB) and are under-served by conventional health services. Approaches to active case-finding (ACF) and treatment tailored to their needs are required. A transmission-dynamic model was developed to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of screening with mobile Chest X-ray, GeneXpert, or both. Effectiveness of ACF depends upon the prevalence of infection in the population (which determines screening 'yield'), patient willingness to wait for GeneXpert results, and treatment adherence. ACF is efficient when TB prevalence exceeds 78/100,000 and 46% of drug sensitive TB cases and 33% of multi-drug resistant TB cases complete treatment. This threshold increases to 92/100,000 if additional post-ACF enhanced case management (ECM) increases treatment completion to 85%. Generally, the most efficient option is one-step screening of all patients with GeneXpert, but if too many patients (>27% without ECM, >19% with ECM) are unwilling to wait the 90 minutes required then two-step screening using chest X-ray (which is rapid) followed by GeneXpert for confirmation of TB is the most efficient option. Targeted ACF and support services benefit health through early successful treatment and averting TB transmission and disease. The optimal strategy is setting-specific, requiring careful consideration of patients' needs regarding testing and treatment.

Using peer advocates to improve access to services among hard-to-reach populations with hepatitis C: a qualitative study of client and provider relationships.

BACKGROUND: Peer support programmes use individuals with specific experiences to improve engagement and outcomes among new clients. However, the skills and techniques used to achieve this engagement have not been mapped. This potentially restricts the development and replication of successful peer advocate models of care. This study explored how a group of peer advocates with experience of homelessness, alcohol and drug misuse made and sustained relationships with their client group. For the purposes of this project, the client group were located among a hepatitis C-positive cohort of people who have a history of injecting drug use and homelessness. METHODS: Five self-selecting advocates gave a narrative interview lasting 40-90 min. These interviews were double transcribed using both thematic analysis and narrative analysis in order to triangulate the data and provide a robust set of findings about the unique skills of peer advocates in creating and sustaining relationships with clients from hard-to-reach populations. RESULTS: Peer advocates build rapport with clients through disclosing personal details about their lives. While this runs counter to assumptions about the need to maintain distance in client-patient relationships, the therapeutic benefits appear to outweigh the potential costs of this engagement. CONCLUSION: We conclude the therapeutic benefits of self-disclosure between peer advocates and their clients offer a moral grounding for self-disclosure as a means of building relationships with key hard-to-reach populations.

Epidemiology and clinical management of Legionnaires' disease.

Legionnaires' disease is an important cause of community-acquired and hospital-acquired pneumonia. Although uncommon, Legionnaires' disease continues to cause disease outbreaks of public health significance. The disease is caused by any species of the Gram-negative aerobic bacteria belonging to the genus Legionella; Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 is the causative agent of most cases in Europe. In this Review we outline the global epidemiology of Legionnaires' disease, summarise its diagnosis and management, and identify research gaps and priorities. Early clinical diagnosis and prompt initiation of appropriate antibiotics for Legionella spp in all patients with community-acquired or hospital-acquired pneumonias is a crucial measure for management of the disease. Progress in typing and sequencing technologies might additionally contribute to understanding the distribution and natural history of Legionnaires' disease, and inform outbreak investigations. Control of Legionnaires' disease outbreaks relies on rapid ascertainment of descriptive epidemiological data, combined with microbiological information to identify the source and implement control measures. Further research is required to define the actual burden of disease, factors that influence susceptibility, key sources of infection, and differences in virulence between strains of Legionella species. Other requirements are improved, specific, sensitive, and rapid diagnostic tests to accurately inform management of Legionnaires' disease, and controlled clinical trials to ascertain the optimum antibiotics for treatment.

Controversies and unresolved issues in tuberculosis prevention and control: a low-burden-country perspective.

Despite declining incidence in most high-income countries, tuberculosis shows no signs of disappearing in the near future. Although surveillance data from most Western European countries show relatively stable declines in the rate of tuberculosis over the past several decades, some have reported either an increasing rate or a decelerating pace of reduction in recent years. The burden of disease now disproportionately affects high-risk groups such as migrants, homeless persons, and prisoners. In view of the concentration of cases in urban areas and high-risk deprived groups, interventions that may not be efficient when applied to the general population may be highly cost effective when targeted at high-risk groups. In this article, we examine some controversial elements of tuberculosis prevention and control in low-burden countries and recommend issues for further research. In particular, we assess current evidence on the duration of protection by BCG vaccine, the screening of migrants and hard-to-reach groups, and the use of preventive therapy for contacts of cases of infectious multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. This analysis is presented from the perspective of low-tuberculosis-burden, high-income countries attempting to eliminate tuberculosis.

Dedicated outreach service for hard to reach patients with tuberculosis in London: observational study and economic evaluation.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost effectiveness of the Find and Treat service for diagnosing and managing hard to reach individuals with active tuberculosis. DESIGN: Economic evaluation using a discrete, multiple age cohort, compartmental model of treated and untreated cases of active tuberculosis. SETTING: London, United Kingdom. Population Hard to reach individuals with active pulmonary tuberculosis screened or managed by the Find and Treat service (48 mobile screening unit cases, 188 cases referred for case management support, and 180 cases referred for loss to follow-up), and 252 passively presenting controls from London's enhanced tuberculosis surveillance system. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incremental costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and cost effectiveness ratios for the Find and Treat service. RESULTS: The model estimated that, on average, the Find and Treat service identifies 16 and manages 123 active cases of tuberculosis each year in hard to reach groups in London. The service has a net cost of £1.4 million/year and, under conservative assumptions, gains 220 QALYs. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio was £6400-£10,000/QALY gained (about €7300-€11,000 or $10,000-$16 000 in September 2011). The two Find and Treat components were also cost effective, even in unfavourable scenarios (mobile screening unit (for undiagnosed cases), £18,000-£26,000/QALY gained; case management support team, £4100-£6800/QALY gained). CONCLUSIONS: Both the screening and case management components of the Find and Treat service are likely to be cost effective in London. The cost effectiveness of the mobile screening unit in particular could be even greater than estimated, in view of the secondary effects of infection transmission and development of antibiotic resistance.