Survival analysis for AdVerse events with VarYing follow-up times (SAVVY): summary of findings and assessment of existing guidelines.

BACKGROUND: The SAVVY project aims to improve the analyses of adverse events (AEs) in clinical trials through the use of survival techniques appropriately dealing with varying follow-up times and competing events (CEs). This paper summarizes key features and conclusions from the various SAVVY papers. METHODS: Summarizing several papers reporting theoretical investigations using simulations and an empirical study including randomized clinical trials from several sponsor organizations, biases from ignoring varying follow-up times or CEs are investigated. The bias of commonly used estimators of the absolute (incidence proportion and one minus Kaplan-Meier) and relative (risk and hazard ratio) AE risk is quantified. Furthermore, we provide a cursory assessment of how pertinent guidelines for the analysis of safety data deal with the features of varying follow-up time and CEs. RESULTS: SAVVY finds that for both, avoiding bias and categorization of evidence with respect to treatment effect on AE risk into categories, the choice of the estimator is key and more important than features of the underlying data such as percentage of censoring, CEs, amount of follow-up, or value of the gold-standard. CONCLUSIONS: The choice of the estimator of the cumulative AE probability and the definition of CEs are crucial. Whenever varying follow-up times and/or CEs are present in the assessment of AEs, SAVVY recommends using the Aalen-Johansen estimator (AJE) with an appropriate definition of CEs to quantify AE risk. There is an urgent need to improve pertinent clinical trial reporting guidelines for reporting AEs so that incidence proportions or one minus Kaplan-Meier estimators are finally replaced by the AJE with appropriate definition of CEs.

Burden of disease in Lambert-Eaton myasthenic syndrome: taking the patient's perspective.

BACKGROUND: Lambert-Eaton myasthenic syndrome (LEMS) is an autoimmune-mediated neuromuscular disorder leading to muscle weakness, autonomic dysregulation and hyporeflexia. Psychosocial well-being is affected. Previously, we assessed burden of disease for Myasthenia gravis (MG). Here, we aim to elucidate burden of disease by comparing health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of patients with LEMS to the general population (genP) as well as MG patients. METHODS: A questionnaire-based survey included sociodemographic and clinical data along with standardized questionnaires, e.g. the Short Form Health (SF-36). HRQoL was evaluated through matched-pairs analyses. Participants from a general health survey served as control group. RESULTS: 46 LEMS patients matched by age and gender were compared to 92 controls from the genP and a matched cohort of 92 MG patients. LEMS participants showed lower levels of physical functioning (SF-36 mean 34.2 SD 28.6) compared to genP (mean 78.6 SD 21.1) and MG patients (mean 61.3 SD 31.8). LEMS patients showed lower mental health sub-scores compared to genP (SF-36 mean 62.7 SD 20.2, vs. 75.7 SD 15.1) and MG patients (SF-36 mean 62.7 SD 20.2, vs. 66.0 SD 18.). Depression, anxiety and fatigue were prevalent. Female gender, low income, lower activities of daily living, symptoms of depression, anxiety and fatigue were associated with a lower HRQoL in LEMS. DISCUSSION: HRQoL is lower in patients with LEMS compared to genP and MG in a matched pair-analysis. The burden of LEMS includes economic and social aspects as well as emotional well-being. TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION: drks.de: DRKS00024527, submitted: February 02, 2021, https://drks.de/search/en/trial/DRKS00024527 .

Multistate methodology improves risk assessment under time-varying drug intake-a new view on pregnancy outcomes following coumarin exposure.

PURPOSE: Observational cohort studies are essential to evaluate the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes associated with drug intake. Besides left truncation and competing events, it is crucial to account for the time-dynamic pattern of drug exposure. In fact, potentially harmful medications are often discontinued, which might affect the outcome. Ignoring these challenges may lead to biased estimation of drug-related risks highlighting the need for adequate statistical techniques. METHODS: We reanalyze updated data of a recently published study provided by the German Embryotox pharmacovigilance institute. The aim of the study was to quantify the effect of discontinuation of vitamin K antagonist phenprocoumon on the risk of spontaneous abortion. RESULTS: We outline multistate methodology as a powerful method removing bias in probability estimation inherent to commonly used crude proportions. We incorporate time-dependent discontinuation and competing pregnancy outcomes as separate states in a multistate model, which enables the formulation of hazard-based Cox proportional hazard models and the application of so-called landmark techniques. Results show that early discontinuation of phenprocoumon substantially reduces the risk of spontaneous abortion, which is of great importance for both pregnant women and treating physicians. CONCLUSIONS: An adequate handling of discontinuation times is essential when analyzing the risk of spontaneous abortion. The proposed concepts are not restricted to pregnancy outcome studies but have broad usage in other fields of epidemiology. Our nontechnical report may provide guidance for the design and analysis of future studies. Example code is provided.