The cost of Medicare-funded medical and pharmaceutical services for mental disorders in children and adolescents in Australia.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the health care costs associated with mental disorders and subthreshold mental disorders within a nationally representative sample of children and adolescents in Australia. METHOD: Data were derived from the Young Minds Matter Survey (N = 6,310). Mental disorders were classified using the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children Version IV. Participant data were linked to administrative data on health care costs. Adjusted generalized linear regression models and two-part models were used to estimate mean differences in costs between those with a mental disorder or subthreshold disorder and those without. RESULTS: Costs associated with health care attendances and medications were higher for children and adolescents with mental disorders and subthreshold mental disorders compared to those without a mental disorder. The additional population health care costs due to mental disorders amounted to AUD$234 million annually in children and adolescents, of which approximately 16% was attributed to out-of-pocket costs. Findings showed that those with subthreshold mental disorders or comorbid mental disorders have substantial additional costs of Medicare-funded medical and pharmaceutical services. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATION: Mental disorders in children and adolescents are associated with significant health care costs. Further research is needed to ensure that this population is receiving effective and efficient care.

Assessment of Breast Cancer Mortality Trends Associated With Mammographic Screening and Adjuvant Therapy From 1986 to 2013 in the State of Victoria, Australia.

Importance: Diagnosis of early breast cancer (EBC) in women by mammographic screening and postsurgical adjuvant endocrine therapy and chemotherapy (termed adjuvant therapy) began simultaneously in many countries in the 1990s. Subsequent breast cancer mortality declines were variously attributed to mammographic screening and/or adjuvant therapy. Objective: To determine the relative mortality reductions associated with these 2 interventions in women with EBC who had been exposed to both. Design, Setting, and Participants: This secondary analysis of cross-sectional studies assessed groups of women with invasive breast cancer in the State of Victoria, Australia, from January 1, 1982, to December 31, 2013, who were included in the Victorian Cancer Registry (VCR). The population consisted of participants in population-based studies of female breast cancer from 1986 to 2013 using data from 4 VCR population-based surveys of breast cancer treatment from 1986 to 1999; VCR data on breast cancer incidence, mortality, and TNM stage at diagnosis from 1986 to 2013; and Victorian mammographic screening program (BreastScreen Victoria) data from 1992 to 2007. Breast cancer incidence and mortality data were analyzed for all 76 630 women registered with invasive breast cancer with the VCR from January 1, 1982, to December 31, 2013, and breast cancer treatment and screening data were analyzed additionally for the groups of surveyed women as described above. Exposures: Participation in BreastScreen Victoria and receipt of adjuvant therapy after surgery for EBC. Main Outcomes and Measures: Data were analyzed for associations between crude breast cancer mortality trends and uptake of adjuvant therapy and downstaging by mammographic screening. Results: Of all 76 630 women registered with breast cancer with the VCR from January 1, 1982, to December 31, 2013. Joinpoint analyses of the time trend in crude mortality showed an increase from 31.6 per 100 000 women in 1982 to 34.3 per 100 000 women in 1994, with a single joinpoint at 1994, followed by a significant declining trend to 23.9 per 100 000 women in 2013 (annual percentage change, -1.3%; 95% CI, -1.6% to -0.9%). By 1999, 74% of all Victorian women with EBC (737 of 1001) had commenced adjuvant endocrine therapy, and 72% (187 of 260) of premenopausal and 29% (215 of 741) of postmenopausal women with EBC had commenced adjuvant chemotherapy. Crude incidence of advanced-stage breast cancer almost doubled from 12.2 per 100 000 women in 1986 to 23.9 per 100 000 women in 2013. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that mammographic screening did not downstage breast cancer in Victoria from advanced to early, so population mortality benefit is lacking. Adjuvant therapy uptake was associated with all of the decline in Victorian breast cancer mortality since 1994. Given these findings, monitoring the relative contributions of mammographic screening and adjuvant therapy for EBC to breast cancer mortality reductions in populations of women exposed to both should be mandatory.

Exploring health state utility values of parents of children with a serious illness.

PURPOSE: In cost-utility analysis, outcomes are usually measured in terms of quality-adjusted life years, where length of life is adjusted by levels of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) using a single value, known as a health state utility value (HSUV). This study explores the HSUVs of parents of children with a serious illness admitted within three hospital departments (cardiology, oncology and paediatric intensive care) across four time points, compares HSUVs with Australian population norms and examines predictors of parental HSUVs. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Take a Breath study, where parental HSUVs were measured using the Assessment of Quality of Life-8 Dimensions (AQoL-8D). Descriptive statistics and t-tests compared the AQoL-8D scores with population norms, while repeated measures ANOVA was used to compare parental HSUVs of children treated across illness groups over time. Regression analysis was performed to determine predictors of parental HSUVs. RESULTS: Parental HSUVs were not significantly different from the general Australian population norms (p = 0.939), as measured by the AQoL-8D. However, statistically significant differences were observed in the psychosocial super-dimension (p < 0.01) and in all eight AQoL-8D dimensions, except for senses and self-worth. No significant differences were observed across illness groups. Parental HSUVs were associated with psychosocial risk factors of trait anxiety (p < 0.001), depression (p < 0.001) and family beliefs (p = 0.024). CONCLUSION: Having a child with a severe illness has an impact on the psychosocial aspects of parental HRQoL regardless of the type of illness. Psychosocial health factors of trait anxiety, depression and family beliefs were important predictors of parental HSUV.

Comprehensive stereological assessment of the human lung using multiresolution computed tomography.

The application of stereology to lung casts and two-dimensional microscopy images is the gold standard for quantification of the human lung anatomy. However, these techniques are labor intensive, involving fixation, embedding, and histological sectioning of samples and thus have prevented comprehensive studies. Our objective was to demonstrate the application of stereology to volumetric multiresolution computed tomography (CT) to efficiently and extensively quantify the human lung anatomy. Nontransplantable donor lungs from individuals with no evidence of respiratory disease (n = 13) were air inflated, frozen at 10 cmH2O, and scanned using CT. Systematic uniform random samples were taken, scanned using micro-CT, and assessed using stereology. The application of stereology to volumetric CT imaging enabled comprehensive quantification of total lung volume, volume fractions of alveolar, alveolar duct, and tissue, mean linear intercept, alveolar surface area, alveolar surface area density, septal wall thickness, alveolar number, number-weighted mean alveolar volume, and the number and morphometry of terminal and transitional bronchioles. With the use of this data set, we found that women and men have the same number of terminal bronchioles (last generation of conducting airways), but men have longer terminal bronchioles, a smaller wall area percentage, and larger lungs due to a greater number of alveoli per acinus. The application of stereology to multiresolution CT imaging enables comprehensive analysis of the human lung parenchyma that identifies differences between men and women. The reported data set of normal donor lungs aged 25-77 yr provides reference data for future studies of chronic lung disease to determine exact changes in tissue pathology.NEW & NOTEWORTHY Stereology has been the gold standard to quantify the three-dimensional lung anatomy using two-dimensional microscopy images. However, such techniques are labor intensive. This study provides a method that applies stereology to volumetric computed tomography images of frozen whole human lungs and systematic uniform random samples. The method yielded a comprehensive data set on the small airways and parenchymal lung structures, highlighting morphometric sex differences and providing a reference data set for future pathological studies.

Is gender inequity a risk factor for men reporting poorer self-rated health in the United States?

Theoretical approaches suggest that gender inequity increases men's health risks. Previous findings from the United States support this contention, however only a small number of health outcomes have been explored. This study extends the range of health outcomes examined by using a cross-sectional, multilevel analysis to investigate whether measures of state-level gender inequity are predictors of men's self-rated health. Data were derived primarily from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and the full-case data set included 116,594 individuals nested within 50 states. Gender inequity was measured with nine variables: higher education, women's reproductive rights, abortion provider access, elected office, management, business ownership, labour force participation, earnings and relative poverty. Covariates at the individual level were age, income, education, race/ethnicity, marital status and employment status. Covariates at the state level were income inequality and gross domestic product per capita. In fully adjusted models for all-age men the reproductive rights (OR 1.06 95% CI 1.01-1.11), abortion provider access (OR 1.11 95% CI 1.05-1.16) and earnings (OR 1.06 95% CI 1.02-1.12) measures all predicted an increased risk of men reporting poorer self-rated health for each 1 standard deviation increase in the gender inequity z-score. The most consistent effect was seen for the 65+ age group where the reproductive rights (OR 1.09 95% CI 1.03-1.16), abortion provider access (OR 1.15 95% CI 1.09-1.21), elected office (OR 1.06 95% CI 1.01-1.11) and earnings (OR 1.10 95% CI 1.04-1.16) measures all showed a significant effect. These findings provide evidence that some aspects of gender inequity increase the risk of poorer self-rated health in men. The study contributes to a growing body of literature implicating gender inequity in men's health patterns.

Retailer-Led Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Price Increase Reduces Purchases in a Hospital Convenience Store in Melbourne, Australia: A Mixed Methods Evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Limited evidence has been gathered on the real-world impact of sugar-sweetened beverage price changes on purchasing behavior over time or in community-retail settings. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to determine changes in beverage purchases, business outcomes, and customer and retailer satisfaction associated with a retailer-led sugar-sweetened beverage price increase in a convenience store. We hypothesized that purchases of less-healthy beverages would decrease compared to predicted sales. DESIGN: A convergent parallel mixed methods design complemented sales data (122 weeks pre-intervention, 17 weeks during intervention) with stakeholder interviews and customer surveys. PARTICIPANTS/SETTING: Electronic beverage sales data were collected from a convenience store in Melbourne, Australia (August through November 2015). Convenience store staff completed semi-structured interviews (n=4) and adult customers exiting the store completed surveys (n=352). INTERVENTION: Beverages were classified using a state government framework. Prices of "red" beverages (eg, nondiet soft drinks, energy drinks) increased by 20%. Prices of "amber" (eg, diet soft drinks, small pure fruit juices) and "green" beverages (eg, water) were unchanged. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in beverage volume, item sales, and revenue during the intervention were compared with predicted sales. STATISTICAL ANALYSES: Sales data were analyzed using time series segmented regression while controlling for pre-intervention trends, autocorrelation in sales data, and seasonal fluctuations. RESULTS: Beverage volume sales of red (-27.6%; 95% CI -32.2 to -23.0) and amber (-26.7%; 95% CI -39.3 to -16.0) decreased, and volume of green beverages increased (+26.9%; 95% CI +14.1 to +39.7) in the 17th intervention week compared with predicted sales. Store manager and staff considered the intervention business-neutral, despite a small reduction in beverage revenue. Fifteen percent of customers noticed the price difference and 61% supported the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: A 20% sugar-sweetened beverage price increase was associated with a reduction in their purchases and an increase in purchases of healthier alternatives. Community retail settings present a bottom-up approach to improving consumer beverage choices.

Does gender inequity increase men's mortality risk in the United States? A multilevel analysis of data from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study.

A number of theoretical approaches suggest that gender inequity may give rise to health risks for men. This study undertook a multilevel analysis to ascertain if state-level measures of gender inequity are predictors of men's mortality in the United States. Data for the analysis were taken primarily from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study, which is based on a random sample of the non-institutionalised population. The full data set included 174,703 individuals nested within 50 states and had a six-year follow-up for mortality. Gender inequity was measured by nine variables: higher education, reproductive rights, abortion provider access, elected office, management, business ownership, labour force participation, earnings and relative poverty. Covariates at the individual level were age, income, education, race/ethnicity, marital status and employment status. Covariates at the state level were income inequality and per capita gross domestic product. The results of logistic multilevel modelling showed a number of measures of state-level gender inequity were significantly associated with men's mortality. In all of these cases greater gender inequity was associated with an increased mortality risk. In fully adjusted models for all-age adult men the elected office (OR 1.05 95% CI 1.01-1.09), business ownership (OR 1.04 95% CI 1.01-1.08), earnings (OR 1.04 95% CI 1.01-1.08) and relative poverty (OR 1.07 95% CI 1.03-1.10) measures all showed statistically significant effects for each 1 standard deviation increase in the gender inequity z-score. Similar effects were seen for working-age men. In older men (65+ years) only the earnings and relative poverty measures were statistically significant. This study provides evidence that gender inequity may increase men's health risks. The effect sizes while small are large enough across the range of gender inequity identified to have important population health implications.

The demographics and diving behaviour of DAN Asia-Pacific members with and without pre-existing medical conditions.

INTRODUCTION: This report examines Diver Alert Network Asia-Pacific (DAN AP) members with and without cardiac or respiratory conditions, diabetes or hypertension and compares their demographics, health and diving activities. METHODOLOGY: Two online cross-sectional surveys of DAN AP members were conducted. The first sought information from 833 divers who applied for membership between July 2009 and August 2013 and who had declared the targeted medical conditions. The second, conducted between December 2014 and April 2015, was sent to 9,927 current members with known email addresses. The groups were compared for age, gender, body mass index, fitness, smoking and diving qualifications, history, currency and practices. RESULTS: Of 343 (41%) respondents to the first survey, 267 (32%) provided sufficient information for inclusion. Of 1,786 (18%) respondents to the second survey, 1,437 (15%) had no targeted medical condition and were included in the analysis. Those with medical conditions were on average 4.7 years older (P 〈 0.001); more overweight or obese (68% versus 57%, P = 0.001); took more medications (57% vs. 29%, P 〈 0.001), smoked less (4% vs. 7%, P = 0.02) and did less repetitive diving (median 75 vs 90, P 〈 0.001). Other diving demographics were similar. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial number of people are diving with medical conditions and there is a need to better understand the associated risks. Divers need to be well-educated about the potential impact such conditions may have on diving safety and should monitor their health status, especially as they age.

Socioeconomic Position and Premature Mortality in the AusDiab Cohort of Australian Adults.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the association of socioeconomic position indicators with mortality, without and with adjustment for modifiable risk factors. METHODS: We examined the relationships of 2 area-based indices and educational level with mortality among 9338 people (including 8094 younger than 70 years at baseline) of the Australian Diabetes Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) from 1999-2000 until November 30, 2012. RESULTS: Age- and gender-adjusted premature mortality (death before age 70 years) was more likely among those living in the most disadvantaged areas versus least disadvantaged (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.08, 2.01), living in inner regional versus major urban areas (HR = 1.36; 95% CI = 1.07, 1.73), or having the lowest educational level versus the highest (HR = 1.64; 95% CI = 1.17, 2.30). The contribution of modifiable risk factors (smoking status, diet quality, physical activity, stress, cardiovascular risk factors) in the relationship between 1 area-based index or educational level and mortality was more apparent as age of death decreased. CONCLUSIONS: The relation of area-based socioeconomic position to premature mortality is partly mediated by behavioral and cardiovascular risk factors. Such results could influence public health policies.

Projected age- and sex-specific prevalence of cardiovascular diseases in Western Australian adults from 2005-2045.

BACKGROUND: For decades, the incidence and mortality of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have declined. More recently, we have seen a halting in these declines, especially at younger ages. It is difficult to predict how these changing trends will impact CVD prevalence. We aimed to predict future prevalence of CVDs in Western Australian adults from 2005-2045 based on current incidence and mortality probabilities, population growth and ageing. METHODS AND RESULTS: Multi-state life table models were developed using 2005-2009 age- and sex-specific incidence and mortality probabilities from the Western Australian Data Linkage System. Prevalence of CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke was projected until 2045. Life expectancy and lifetime risk were estimated. We estimate that compared to 2005-2009, we will see 37,235 (CVD), 23,129 (CHD) and 9806 (stroke) more incident cases in 2040-2044. The prevalence of total CVD is predicted to increase from 8.4% in men and 5.1% in women in 2005 to 12.7% and 7.9% respectively in 2045. This seems to be mainly due to population growth and ageing, with some effect of changing incidence and mortality. In Western Australia this represents an additional 106,949 adults living with CVD, of which 65,951 with CHD and 10,928 with stroke, in 2045 compared to 2005. CONCLUSIONS: Assuming no major changes in prevention and treatment of CVD, the prevalence will likely increase, with consequent increases in health care need and cost. These findings need to be confirmed by studies in which prevalence is consistently and empirically measured and monitored over time.

Assessment of Brd4 inhibition in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis lung fibroblasts and in vivo models of lung fibrosis.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic lung disease of high unmet medical need. Although bromodomain (Brd) and extra terminal domain isoforms have recently been implicated in mediating inflammatory and oncologic indications, their roles in lung fibrosis have not been comprehensively assessed. We investigated the role of Brd on the profibrotic responses of lung fibroblasts (LFs) in patients with rapidly progressing IPF and a mouse bleomycin model of lung fibrosis. The enhanced migration, proliferation, and IL-6 release observed in LFs from patients with rapidly progressing IPF are attenuated by pharmacologic inhibition of Brd4. These changes are accompanied by enhanced histone H4 lysine5 acetylation and association of Brd4 with genes involved in the profibrotic responses in IPF LFs as demonstrated using chromatin immunoprecipitation and quantitative PCR. Oral administration of 200 mg/kg per day Brd4 inhibitor JQ1 in a therapeutic dosing regimen substantially attenuated lung fibrosis induced by bleomycin in C57BL/6 mice. In conclusion, this study shows that the Brd4 inhibitor JQ1, administered in a therapeutic dosage, is capable of inhibiting the profibrotic effects of IPF LFs and attenuates bleomycin-induced lung fibrosis in mice. These results suggest that Brd4 inhibitors may represent a novel therapy for the treatment of rapidly progressing IPF.

The health-related quality of life burden of co-morbid cardiovascular disease and major depressive disorder in Australia: findings from a population-based, cross-sectional study.

PURPOSE: Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) can be significantly impaired by the presence of chronic conditions such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) and major depressive disorder (MDD). The aim of this paper was to (1) identify differences in HRQOL between individuals with CVD, MDD, or both, compared to a healthy reference group, (2) establish whether the influence of co-morbid MDD and CVD on HRQOL is additive or synergistic and (3) determine the way in which depression severity interacts with CVD to influence overall HRQOL. METHODS: Population-based data from the 2007 Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Well-being (NSMHWB) (n = 8841) were used to compare HRQOL of individuals with MDD and CVD, MDD but not CVD, CVD but not MDD, with a healthy reference group. HRQOL was measured using the Assessment of Quality of Life (AQOL). MDD was identified using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI 3.0). RESULTS: Of all four groups, individuals with co-morbid CVD and depression reported the greatest deficits in AQOL utility scores (Coef: -0.32, 95% CI: -0.40, -0.23), after adjusting for covariates. Those with MDD only (Coef: -0.27, 95% CI: -0.30, -0.24) and CVD only (Coef: -0.08, 95% CI: -0.11, -0.05) also reported reduced AQOL utility scores. Second, the influence of MDD and CVD on HRQOL was shown to be additive, rather than synergistic. Third, a significant dose-response relationship was observed between depression severity and HRQOL. However, CVD and depression severity appeared to act independently of each other in impacting HRQOL. CONCLUSIONS: HRQOL is greatly impaired in individuals with co-morbid MDD and CVD; these conditions appear to influence HRQOL in an additive fashion. HRQOL alters with depression severity, therefore treating depression and improving HRQOL is of clinical importance.

Area-level socioeconomic status and incidence of abnormal glucose metabolism: the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the role of area-level socioeconomic status (SES) on the development of abnormal glucose metabolism (AGM) using national, population-based data. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study is a national, population-based, longitudinal study of adults aged ≥25 years. A sample of 4,572 people provided complete baseline (1999 to 2000) and 5-year follow-up (2004 to 2005) data relevant for these analyses. Incident AGM was assessed using fasting plasma glucose and 2-h plasma glucose from oral glucose tolerance tests, and demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral data were collected by interview and questionnaire. Area SES was defined using the Index of Relative Socioeconomic Disadvantage. Generalized linear mixed models were used to examine the relationship between area SES and incident AGM, with adjustment for covariates and correction for cluster design effects. RESULTS: Area SES predicted the development of AGM, after adjustment for age, sex, and individual SES. People living in areas with the most disadvantage were significantly more likely to develop AGM, compared with those living in the least deprived areas (odds ratio 1.53; 95% CI 1.07-2.18). Health behaviors (in particular, physical activity) and central adiposity appeared to partially mediate this relationship. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that characteristics of the physical, social, and economic aspects of local areas influence diabetes risk. Future research should focus on identifying the aspects of local environment that are associated with diabetes risk and how they might be modified.

Healthcare utilization and costs in severely obese subjects before bariatric surgery.

This study examined healthcare utilization and associated costs for a severely obese population before receiving bariatric surgery relative to an age- and sex-matched sample from the Australian general population. Severely obese subjects receiving laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB) surgery in 2009 (n = 11,769) were identified. Utilization of medical services and pharmaceuticals in the 3.5 years before surgery were ascertained for each severely obese subject through linkage with Medicare, Australia's universal health insurance scheme. Equivalent data were retrieved for each subject from the matched general population sample (n = 140,000). Severely obese subjects utilized significantly more medical services annually compared to the general population (mean: 22.8 vs. 12.1/person, standardized incidence ratio (SIR): 1.89 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.88-1.89)), translating to twofold higher mean annual costs (Australian $1,140 vs. $567/person). The greatest excess costs in the obese related to consultations with general practitioners, psychiatrists/psychologists and other specialists, investigations for obstructive sleep apnea, and in vitro fertilization. Severely obese subjects also utilized significantly more pharmaceutical prescriptions annually (mean: 11.4 vs. 5.3/person, SIR 2.18 (95% CI: 2.17-2.19)), translating to 2.2-fold higher mean annual costs ($595/person vs. $270/person). The greatest excess costs in the obese related to diabetes drugs, lipid-modifying agents, psychoanaleptics, acid-related disorder drugs, agents acting on the rennin-angiotensin system, immunosuppressants, and obstructive airway disease drugs. Overall, healthcare costs in the severely obese population were more than double those incurred by the general population.

Co-morbid depression is associated with poor work outcomes in persons with cardiovascular disease (CVD): a large, nationally representative survey in the Australian population.

BACKGROUND: Co-morbid major depressive disorder (MDD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is associated with poor clinical and psychological outcomes. However, the full extent of the burden of, and interaction between, this co-morbidity on important vocational outcomes remains less clear, particularly at the population level. We examine the association of co-morbid MDD with work outcomes in persons with and without CVD. METHODS: This study utilised cross-sectional, population-based data from the 2007 Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing (n = 8841) to compare work outcomes of individuals with diagnostically-defined MDD and CVD, MDD but not CVD, CVD but not MDD, with a reference group of "healthy" Australians. Workforce participation was defined as being in full- or part-time employment. Work functioning was measured using a WHO Disability Assessment Schedule item. Absenteeism was assessed using the 'days out of role' item. RESULTS: Of the four groups, those with co-morbid MDD and CVD were least likely to report workforce participation (adj OR:0.4, 95% CI: 0.3-0.6). Those with MDD only (adj OR:0.8, 95% CI:0.7-0.9) and CVD only (adj OR:0.8, 95% CI: 0.6-0.9) also reported significantly reduced odds of participation. Employed individuals with co-morbid MDD and CVD were 8 times as likely to experience impairments in work functioning (adj OR:8.1, 95% CI: 3.8- 17.3) compared with the reference group. MDD was associated with a four-fold increase in impaired functioning. Further, individuals with co-morbid MDD and CVD reported greatest likelihood of workplace absenteeism (adj. OR:3.0, 95% CI: 1.4-6.6). Simultaneous exposure to MDD and CVD conferred an even greater likelihood of poorer work functioning. CONCLUSIONS: Co-morbid MDD and CVD is associated with significantly poorer work outcomes. Specifically, the effects of these conditions on work functioning are synergistic. The development of specialised treatment programs for those with co-morbid MDD and CVD is required.

Projected progression of the prevalence of obesity in Australia.

Several country-specific and global projections of the future obesity prevalence have been conducted. However, these projections are obtained by extrapolating past prevalence of obesity or distributions of body weight. More accurate would be to base estimates on the most recent measures of weight change. Using measures of overweight and obesity incidence from a national, longitudinal study, we estimated the future obesity prevalence in Australian adults. Participants were adults aged ≥25 years in 2000 participating in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity, and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study (baseline 2000, follow-up 2005). In this population, approximately one-fifth of those with normal weight or overweight progressed to a higher weight category within 5 years. Between 2000 and 2025, the adult prevalence of normal weight was estimated to decrease from 40.6 to 28.1% and the prevalence of obesity to increase from 20.5 to 33.9%. By the time, those people aged 25-29 in 2000 reach 60-64 years, 22.1% will be normal weight, and 42.4% will be obese. On average, normal-weight females aged 25-29 years in 2000 will live another 56.2 years: 26.6 years with normal weight, 15.6 years with overweight, and 14.0 years with obesity. Normal-weight males aged 25-29 years in 2000 will live another 51.5 years: 21.6 years with normal weight, 21.1 years with overweight, and 8.8 years with obesity. If the rates of weight gain observed in the first 5 years of this decade are maintained, our findings suggest that normal-weight adults will constitute less than a third of the population by 2025, and the obesity prevalence will have increased by 65%.