Too risky to use, or too risky not to? Lessons learned from over 30 years of research on forensic risk assessment with Indigenous persons.

Indigenous peoples are overrepresented in correctional systems internationally, reflecting a history of systemic racism and colonial oppression, and the practice of risk assessment with this population has been a focus of legal and sociopolitical controversy. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the risk assessment literature comparing Indigenous and non-Indigenous (White majority) groups. We retrieved 91 studies featuring 22 risk tools and 15 risk/need/cultural domains (N = 59,693, Indigenous; N = 237,729, non-Indigenous/White) and four documents identifying culturally relevant factors. Most measures demonstrated moderate predictive validity but often had significant ethnoracial differences, particularly for static measures. The Service Planning Instrument/Youth Assessment Screening Inventory, Level of Service Inventory youth variants, Psychopathy Checklist-Revised and Youth Version, and the Violence Risk Scale and its Sexual Offense version had the strongest predictive validity and least ethnoracial discrepancy. The Static Factors Assessment and Dynamic Factors Identification and Analysis-Revised had the weakest predictive validity. For Indigenous persons, the strongest individual predictors of recidivism were low education/employment, substance abuse, antisocial pattern, and poor community functioning, while mitigating factors that predicted decreased recidivism were measures of risk change (i.e., from culturally integrated programs combining mainstream and traditional healing approaches), cultural engagement/connectedness, and protective factors. In practice, static measures need to be supplemented with dynamic ones, and assessors should select measures with at least moderate predictive validity and ideally the least ethnoracial bias. These conclusions are tempered by the quantity and quality of the literature coupled with the circumstance that some study authors have coauthored tools in this review. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Sexual Violence Risk Assessment With Indigenous Men: Context, Controversies, and Current Findings.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We review the issues, controversies, and main findings from the sexual violence risk assessment literature with Indigenous men. An argument is presented for the incorporation of structured and validated risk assessment measures as part of a comprehensive assessment to inform risk management and the prevention of sexual violence. RECENT FINDINGS: Extant research demonstrates that Canadian Indigenous men convicted for sexual offenses tend to score higher on sexual violence risk measures and to have higher rates of sexual and violent recidivism. Established static and dynamic tools, however, have moderate predictive accuracy for sexual and violent recidivism and changes in risk from treatment or other change agents are associated with decreases in recidivism. Static-99R and the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version demonstrate acceptable properties of calibration for indigenous men with respect to sexual recidivism, although Indigenous men continue to show higher rates of violent recidivism associated with risk scores. The extant literature provides support for the discrimination and calibration properties of established static and dynamic sexual violence risk tools with Indigenous men; use of a dynamic tool is critical to inform risk management interventions and evaluate change. Risk measures are one component of a comprehensive and integrated assessment process that incorporates responsivity considerations, conducted in a culturally competent, ethical, and humane manner.

Evaluating Change in Men Who Have Sexually Offended: Linkages to Risk Assessment and Management.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We provide a review and synthesis of the sexual offense treatment change literature with implications for dynamic sexual violence risk assessment and management. An argument is presented for the need for a dynamic approach in research and practice, and that for change to be prognostic, such changes need to be risk relevant and to come from credible change agents. RECENT FINDINGS: Extant research demonstrates that changes on psychologically meaningful dimensions of risk and need (e.g., sexual deviance; attitudes and cognitions; anger, aggression, and hostility) tend to be associated with reductions in sexual and other forms of recidivism; however, changes in domains less germane to risk and need tend not to be (e.g., empathy, mental health and well-being). Formalized dynamic sexual offense risk measures can be administered at multiple time points to reliably measure changes in sexual violence risk. Change information can then be used systematically to adjust risk appraisals. The extant literature supports the dynamic nature of sexual violence risk. Working toward the routine assessment of change with psychometrically sound measures, and integrating this information into risk management interventions, can not only improve lives and reduce sexual violence but is an ethical and human responsibility.